Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256


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From: DrewSchaefer@ftnetwork.com
To: iwar@egroups.com

Mon, 23 Oct 2000 05:00:27 -0700


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Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 05:00:27 -0700
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256
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Hello all,

About LDC or any 'growth' in the # of States or groups that have or possess Nucl. Warheads ... I have copied below some comments about a book I had the pleasure of reviewing for a Law school Journal.  I do NOT agree with the 'sweeping tour de force' type of laudatory quotes, as I didn't fathom an 'empirical work' as being VERY dependant on the Encyclopeadia Britannica for 'source material.'

In his writing, as I made out what appeared to be his prime thesis, was: the More States that Possess Nuclear Arms, the More Chances sooner that Someone Somewhere would Use them...

Now before you all call me 'idiot' for stating the obvious, remember please, that I didn't WRITE the book ... [smile]:  A "solid empirical foundation"  Depends on who's doing the *empiring* ...

I don't know who else read it, but Ike Jeanes' "Forecast and Solution,": ISBN 0-936015-62-4 (paper), $25.00; ISBN 0-936015-63-2 (hardcover), $32.00; 770 pp.
Available from Quality Books, Baker & Taylor, Blackwell, and publisher Pocahontas Press, P.O. Drawer F, Blacksburg, Va. 24063, (800) 446-0467, (540) 951-0467, fax (540) 961-2847. 
[by no means an ENDORSEMENT; simple courtesy in citing a source]

Quote from [http://www.nukefix.org/forecast.html]
"Specifically, the book introduces the reader to the *Formula k* model which seeks to show how long nuclear peace would tend to continue at different levels of proliferation and  peacefulness. 

"This simple mathematical method illustrates levels of peacefulness required to sustain peace for designated periods, and purports to predict conventional warfare with considerable accuracy. Though some theorists may object to the use of mathematical models, Jeanes' method is highly original and attractive. His central argument is that for any given probability of a nuclear war per year, there is an expected time span until it occurs. Thus. the longer we wait without creating a safer world, the more likely it is that nuclear warfare will occur. A solid empirical foundation and a comparative platform have been built on the extensive analysis of numerous conventional wars since 1820."

Any comments?

Drew

new2000


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