Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?


From: Tony Bartoletti
From: azb@llnl.gov
To: iwar@egroups.com

Tue, 24 Oct 2000 10:49:59 -0700


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From: Tony Bartoletti 
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Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2000 10:49:59 -0700
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
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>So, I ask knowing the answer...  What is the probability of an
>accidental nuclear detonation? And what is the probability that a small
>nation with nuclear weapons will decide to use them irresponsibly or be
>unable to protect them?
>
>The answer is... nobody knows.
>
>According to published documents in the open literature, the probability
>of accidental nuclear detonation of weapons in the US nuclear stockpile
>under 'abnormal' circumstances (whatver that means) is 'less than' one
>in a million.  It's even lower under 'normal' circumstances (whatever
>that means).  Note that the 'less than' - which means that we don't know
>what the real probability is, but we do know an upper bound on it.

Even if such statistical predictions were believable, they are missing
a time scale.  One-in-a-million ... per year?  per second?  per millenium?

If they intend "per Ever" I must indeed laugh.

>So far, as far as I can tell from the press, there have been no - count
>them ZERO - accidental nuclear weapons explosions or nuclear weapons
>explosions caused by a nation-state losing control over their weapons.
>How can we do statistics when there are ZERO examples?

:)

It is exceedingly difficult to predict the "first occurrence" of something
that has never happened.

>On to the information warfare issue...  What was that again? Maybe a
>rogue state will use a nuclear weapon to take out the information
>systems of a city? Ah well...  perhaps we should move on to something
>more likely...

More likely than an event of unknown likelihood? :)

___tony___

Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881 
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900


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