RE: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
From: St. Clair, James
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From: jstclair@vredenburg.com
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Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2000 13:15:57 -0700
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: RE: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
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Actually, I'm a little surprised at this discourse. Probability IS a
function of time, and I figured I was the last guy to learn that.
Modeling is the key to probability over time. In the case of probability of
an event, events develop that typically precede, let's say, a terrorist
incident. these events are called indicators, and provide the basis for
building your warning problem. As these indicators accumulate, they shape
your warning. This warning takes various levels of importance and urgency
depending on the number and historical significance of these events.
This principle applies to natural disasters, such a tornadoes and volcanoes.
Both have historic models of probability that directly relate to an event in
relationship to time, and then associate a probability of how catastrophic
over a given time. (70% chance of blowing the top off the mountain in the
next 36 hours)
Traditional probability has been measured in terms of occurrence vs. number
of events. Managing complex systems (such as a nuclear detonation) involves
time.
Hopefully they are using the higher math in this case.
James St. Clair
DON CIO (CIP)
(703) 412-4611
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