Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what? (Out Of Office)


From: Tammy Clark
From: tlclark@gsu.edu
To: iwar@egroups.com

Tue, 24 Oct 2000 17:07:04 -0400


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Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2000 17:07:04 -0400
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Probability times time produces what? (Out Of Office)
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Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 16:57 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 16:51 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 16:40 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 16:32 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 16:01 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 15:58 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 15:10 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 15:06 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 14:47 >>>

Hello,

I am away from the office until 30 October 2000.  Please forward any items that require immediate or urgent action to Roland Stewart.  Roland is the information security point of contact from 25-27 October 2000.  Thank you,

Tammy Clark
Information Security Officer
Georgia State University
tlclark@gsu.edu
404-463-9612

>>> "iwar@egroups.com" 10/24/00 14:48 >>>

At 10:56 AM 10/24/00 -0700, you wrote:

>Probability is not defined in terms of time as far as I am aware.  It is
>defined in terms of events.  If I don't roll a die for a long time, then
>the probability of a 1, 2, or 3 remains the same.  So this is the
>probability per event that is of interest.
>
> > If they intend "per Ever" I must indeed laugh.
>
>I can hear you laughing... The question is: What is an event?

Clearly a weak and fuzzy element in this investigation :)

>An event is an occurance in which something might happen.  For example,
>every time we roll the 6-sided die, it is an event in which you might
>get a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or perhaps something else...  Having more people
>with control over weapons tends to increase the number of events and
>thus increases the chances of one of those one in a million or more bad
>events taking place.  Hence a strong argument for lower numbers of
>people with the ability to cause events can be made if you want to be
>sure that the probabilities stay low.

True, if this means less "independent groups with capability" since each 
additional group acts to increase the rate at which the "experiment 
performed in the sample space" occurs.  However, making more people 
responsible for a fixed set of devices and procedures can work both ways 
(more opportunities to detect an error or misdeed, more chances to 
intervene in time, etc.)

It would seem that the "nature/efficacy of these procedures" is a far 
greater factor in effecting the likelihood of a bad event, and this is 
basically your original point.  Further, given the changing nature of the 
forces at work (individuals, motivations, procedures and technologies) it 
would seem that any attempt to apply statistics here is almost futile.

Of course, if "event" can be as simple as an atomic decay, a critical 
stress fracture, a flipped bit or misplaced call, and these occur with 
(relative) uniformity over time, than a time scale is an appropriate 
substitute basis upon which to make statements of probability.

___tony___





Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881 
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900



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