[iwar] The assumption of MAD
From: Dan Ellis
From: ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu
To: iwar@egroups.com
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From: Dan Ellis
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Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2000 14:40:02 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: [iwar] The assumption of MAD
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What happens to your (probability) model when somebody decides
that they have nothing to loose by being destroyed? Both sides of the
Cold War were more concerned about loosing what they had than simply
inflicting damage on the enemy. That was the assumption that had to hold
true for MAD to be an effective deterent.
However, once you have somebody who is willing to cause damage to
a perceived enemy *at all cost*, MAD becomes an ineffective
deterent. There was a previous discussion on this list that tackled the
question why we (the US) fear smaller countries developing WMDs. I think
the answer is twofold: 1) we don't understand their world view, and
2) they have less to loose by being destroyed. If their world view
incorporates the idea that there is honor in dieing causing damage to an
opponent even with the a side effect of extreme harm to self (think
Kamakaze), then as the number of countries with WMDs increases, so to
increases the likelihood of one of them using the WMDs. The initiator of
that previous discussion asserted that taking human life is the hardest
thing for anybody to do (correct me if I am wrong). Simply because it is
the hardest thing for them to do does not necessarily mean that it won't
happen, or even that it is hard.
How do you quantify the amount of damage a person can do who has
the following mindset: "I hate my life. I want to kill/hurt/mame as many
people as I can. I want to die being a witness of hatred. I want to be
remembered as the person who did the worst thing ever." Now, I do NOT
assert that this is the belief system of any population of people or
nation. However, people with this mindset exist (see for example the
recent murder suicides on *US* soil--ie, the shootings in our
schools)! They can exist in any population. And, as soon as you get
somebody like this with sufficient influence and power, something bad can
happen.
So, what do you think? Is there a way to deal with such a world
view? How do you account for that in your probability models?
------------------
Dan Ellis
PhD student, UCSB
ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu
H: (805) 971-6183
W: (805) 893-4394
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