[iwar] [fc:Future.Wargame.Presaged.Terrorist.Challenge]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-09-17 13:41:34


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Future.Wargame.Presaged.Terrorist.Challenge]
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Defense Week
September 17, 2001
Future Wargame Presaged Terrorist Challenge
By Christian Lowe
Four years ago, the Army conducted a wargame pitting terrorists against U.S.
and allied forces. Despite some success against the terrorists, the allied
forces were never able to destroy them, according to an official familiar
with the game.
In the 1997 wargame, the terrorist group was similar to the one that
attacked the World Trade Center and Pentagon with hijacked commercial
airliners Tuesday, said Steven Metz, chief of research for the Army War
College's Regional Strategy and Planning Department, in an interview
Thursday.
Although U.S. and allied forces were able to knock out several elements of
the terrorist organization in the game, they were never able to totally
disable the group, said Metz, who drew up the notional terrorist group and
participated in the wargame.
"You had these five or six different nodes, each of which had a different
function and a different organization," Metz said. The terrorists "created
some serious problems, ... because even if [allied forces] totally quashed
one of these little nodes, the other five or six ... kept on, and you'd
eventually build these nodes back up."
Set in the year 2020, the scenario involved an insurgent group of terrorists
bent on overthrowing an unnamed government in Asia. The wargame lasted three
to four days and involved strategists from across the services, Metz said.
"We'd been hurt," Metz said, referring to the terrorist cells. "I mean we'd
been struck in some ways by the government and the Americans. But we were
pretty much intact. We took the best that this Asian government and the
Americans could dish out, and we were still O.K."
Since the simulated conflict was to take place in 2020, Metz and his
colleagues were given wide latitude on designing the terrorist insurgents.
"We created this very, very highly decentralized network," Metz said. "We
had one little node that actually did the terrorism. We had one little node
that was our top-notch cyber-criminals. Their entire mission was to raise
money. We had another node that was the political part, that had connections
all over the world, that was pure as the driven snow. These guys literally
knew nothing about the violence that was taking place.
"In this organization we never had one person in command," Metz added. "We
never had a meeting where all of the leaders of these nodes got together."
It was clear from the wargame that even the forces the United States might
bring to bear in 2020 weren't prepared to defeat Metz's terrorist cells.
"Within the contours of that particular game, the American forces and their
allies simply weren't configured to deal with an enemy like the one we
created," he said.
They weren't then, and they aren't now, Metz said.
"The answer might be, 'Well, there aren't any enemies like that today,' " he
said. "And as I'm watching the television I'm going, 'Well maybe there is
and we just don't know it yet.' " 

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