[iwar] FW: America - Infrastructure Risk

From: Robert W. Miller (snooker3@mindspring.com)
Date: 2001-09-17 17:54:15
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__________________________________________________________________
                            S T R A T F O R

                    THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY

                        http://www.stratfor.com
___________________________________________________________________

						  17 September 2001


  -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY:

      * Opposition to Taliban May Unite Iran and U.S.
      http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109172300.htm

      * The Intelligence War
      http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109170410.htm

      * Defense Spending Potential Rescue For Economy
      http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109171500.htm

___________________________________________________________________

Is American Infrastructure at Risk?

2120 GMT, 010917

Summary

The financial and air transportation industries will feel the 
aftershocks of the Sept. 11 attacks for years. If terrorists did 
not fully anticipate this while planning the attacks, they are 
certainly aware of it now. This raises the possibility that the 
perpetrators may shift future target sets away from pure terror 
targets toward vital infrastructure, including oil refineries and 
bridges. 

Analysis

Stock markets in the United States reopened Sept. 17 for the 
first time since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on Washington, 
D.C., and New York, and air traffic began to return to normal. 
The Dow Jones average and NASDAQ, however, both fell by more than 
5 percent, with airline stocks taking particularly strong hits. 

The effects of Sept. 11 will be apparent for some time in the 
American financial and transportation sectors and around the 
globe. The question now is whether these far-reaching 
ramifications were intended by or incidental to the attackers' 
plans. The answer may shed light on whether more attacks may 
follow and what the targets might be. A campaign against 
important American infrastructure -- such as communications and 
power installations -- could be in the works.

Unlike the Sept. 11 suicide strikes, which shut the United States 
down for a week, a sustained campaign against vital 
infrastructure could have effects unseen in the United States 
since the Civil War.

Following the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the 
United States has significantly enhanced security procedures at 
airports, military facilities and federal buildings. Cities 
around the nation have also heightened security around potential 
targets, including high-rise office buildings and local 
government facilities. It is likely the attackers would have 
anticipated these changes. 

In the past, the expectation of heightened security made 
perpetrators of large-scale terrorist attacks slip into obscurity 
after the hits and lie low for a year or two before striking 
again. And they rarely used the same method in rapid succession 
as security responses rose to match the initial assault tactics. 

Although this hit-and-run method could be repeated this time, the 
scale and planning of the Sept. 11 operation, the apparent 
training of the terrorists and the implications of the attack do 
not reflect typical patterns. Investigators believe the 
operatives were in place for months or even years, blending in 
with local society and waiting patiently for the time of the 
attack. And unlike many suicide bombers, they were well-trained 
and educated. 

The success of the strikes in New York can be measured in many 
ways, from the attackers' point of view. First, the towers 
symbolized the financial might of the United States. More than 
that, their location in the heart of a multinational metropolis 
represented the global financial system. This is why the World 
Trade Center was the target of a 1993 bombing as well. 

Beyond symbolism, the sheer size of the towers and the number of 
people in and around them made them ideal targets for sowing fear 
in the United States. 

But the attacks are having an even deeper ripple effect: the 
temporary shutdown of the U.S. financial and transportation 
infrastructure. Trading on U.S. stock markets was delayed four 
days, and the residual financial repercussions reached well 
beyond the trading floor. Airline transportation was seriously 
disrupted. Talk of increased security, fewer passengers and 
reduced schedules and layoffs are circulating throughout the 
industry. 

If the culprits did not fully anticipate these aftershocks, they 
can see them clearly now. This raises the possibility that those 
responsible may shift their sights away from pure terror targets 
-- such heavily populated buildings or sports stadiums -- toward 
vital infrastructure targets. 

If the goal of the attack was merely symbolic -- designed to 
terrorize Americans and invigorate Islamic militant forces around 
the globe -- secondary or tertiary cells in the United States may 
well emerge to strike other symbolic or populous civilian 
targets. This would stir social chaos, but it would not 
necessarily seriously impede the nation's ability to operate. 
Israel faces suicide bombings and civil unrest, Spain is racked 
with bombings and the United Kingdom deals with a troubled 
Northern Ireland, yet these states continue to function.

Attacks on infrastructure would be much more disruptive, however. 
Whether intentionally or not, the Sept. 11 attacks have shaken 
air transportation in the United States and around the world for 
the foreseeable future. The targeting of infrastructure -- 
bridges across the Mississippi and other major rivers, oil 
refineries, storage facilities and pipelines, ports and rail 
lines, telecommunications towers and energy grids -- could 
seriously destabilize the United States. 

Whether the groups related to the attackers pursue one or both of 
these courses will depend on their networks in the United States. 
The government is now coordinating a massive campaign to track 
down the people involved in or linked to the Sept. 11 attacks and 
other terrorist cells. The magnitude of the attacks and the scope 
of investigations suggests that a broader network of so-called 
"sleepers" -- terrorists who blend in with society for months or 
even years before being activated -- may well exist in the United 
States. 

The wide net being cast for all conceivable suspects related to 
this case and past or potential attacks raises the likelihood 
that members of these sleeper cells may well be picked up. If 
this occurs, it will be up to the handlers of those cells to 
determine if the group should remain secret, try to disperse or 
begin a second-wave assault on the United States and its allies. 

Given the sophisticated nature of the Sept. 11 attacks and the 
unconventional methods used, the United States may be in for a 
sustained campaign on its own soil -- one that could aim at the 
very heart of the infrastructure networks across the nation.

___________________________________________________________________


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