[iwar] [fc:Pakistan's.Nuclear.Wild.Card]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-09-18 08:07:46
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Tue, 18 Sep 2001 08:07:46 -0700 (PDT)
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Los Angeles Times
September 18, 2001
Pakistan's Nuclear Wild Card
Strategy: Military seems to have firm control of the arsenal, but some in
U.S. worry that sending troops could lead to unrest in which dissidents
could seize the weapons.
By Paul Richter, Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has become a source of concern to
U.S. officials as they consider launching a military campaign in Afghanistan
that could send political shock waves through its troubled southern
neighbor. 
Though Pakistan's small nuclear arsenal is believed to be under firm control
of the army, some officials fear its security might be imperiled if a
regional war involving an unpopular American force further polarizes a
sharply divided country. A war could set off new civil upheaval that could
allow dissidents to seize weapons, or it could usher in a new fundamentalist
government, hostile to the United States, that might pass on nuclear
know-how to Osama bin Laden or other U.S. enemies. 
One official said that while the United States is confident in the status of
the weapons now, "This is the kind of thing you've got to think about." 
Pakistan is generally thought to have about 30 tactical nuclear weapons that
are somewhat larger than the one dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World
War II. Though analysts' opinions differ on whether the Pakistanis have
actually prepared a weapon to be dropped from an airplane or fired on the
tip of a missile, the country tested nuclear devices in May 1998 and is
believed to be moving ahead with its weapons program. 
While the nuclear program was conceived to protect Pakistan from the
perceived nuclear threat from India, some groups in the region view its
nuclear arsenal as the "Islamic bomb" that could be used to defend the
broader interests of the Muslim world. 
Many security experts have long predicted that if a nuclear war breaks out,
it will be in South Asia. U.S. diplomats have sometimes described Pakistan,
which is sinking deeper into poverty and fragmentation, as one of the
world's most volatile nuclear-armed nations. 
The threat of a U.S. military assault on Afghanistan has thrust the weak
government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf into an tenuous situation. 
While the Pakistani government would like the financial and other benefits
that a better relationship with the United States could bring, many
Pakistanis violently oppose the idea of support for a U.S. invasion of
Afghanistan. 
An American military presence in the country could be the most controversial
step, and would clearly be considered intolerable by many of the country's
25 million citizens. 
Ivo Daalder, a former National Security Council aide, said the weapons offer
a "nightmare scenario" that "deserves to be very high on the radar screen"
of U.S. policymakers. 
He said the issue of nuclear security is worrisome all over the world, but
is especially so "in a country that's as crisis-prone as this one." He added
that Pakistan is torn between U.S. pressure to come to its aid and its
support for Afghanistan, a friendly neighboring Islamic country. 
Analysts said the nuclear arsenal appears to be under tight control by
Pakistan's military. That control is strong in part because of the
long-standing Pakistani concern that Indian commandos could attack the
nuclear sites. 
The Pakistani army is seen as generally pro-Western in its outlook, said
Stephen P. Cohen, a scholar at the Brookings Institution. However, many
military leaders are not pro-American, believing that the United States has
"let Pakistan down time and again, and is in bed with the Indians," Cohen
said. 
In the event of a civil crisis, the army could be sharply divided, he said.
And the nuclear weapons would certainly be "an object of great desire." 
Analysts noted that the Pakistani devices apparently do not have some of the
mechanical safeguards installed on Russian nuclear bombs--safeguards, for
example, to keep them from being used by unauthorized persons. 
Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information, a think tank
that advocates arms control, said concern about the seizure or disappearance
of the Pakistani weapons is "what keeps me up at night." 
Blair said he is convinced that senior administration policymakers must have
already thought through what action they might take if the weapons fell into
the wrong hands. He said he believes they have already ordered increased
intelligence-gathering on the nuclear arsenal, and may have assigned special
forces teams to try to seize or disarm them if a civil upheaval put them at
risk. 
But one U.S. official, who asked to remain unidentified, denied that the
United States would try to send a military force to eliminate the threat in
a crisis. The Pakistani army is "huge" and would not permit such an
intervention, he said. 
The official said that while the Pakistani nuclear weapons raise serious
issues, the risks should not be exaggerated. 

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