[iwar] [fc:Can.Cyber-Intelligence.Prevent.Real-World.Terrorism?]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-09-19 18:59:51


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Can.Cyber-Intelligence.Prevent.Real-World.Terrorism?]
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Can Cyber-Intelligence Prevent Real-World Terrorism?

By Robyn Weisman www.NewsFactor.com, 9/19/01
<a href="http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/13618.html">http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/13618.html>

After the tragic events of last week, many in the intelligence community
see a pressing need to make better use of so-called cyber-intelligence
to track down enemy activity before future attacks can occur. However,
no one has suggested that any combination of traditional intelligence
and cyber-intelligence gathering can completely eliminate terrorist
attacks. 
Ryan Russell, an incident analyst for SecurityFocus.com, told NewsFactor
Network that as long as there are individuals who are willing to act
with no regard for their own lives, there will always be terror attacks. 
"When someone talks about preventing future attacks, they're talking
about scale," Russell told NewsFactor. "The goal is really preventing
another attack of this scale from taking place again." 
Russell noted that the use of passenger jets as bombs may no longer be a
viable option for terrorists, due to newly implemented security
measures. However, plenty of other methods, such as the use of nerve gas
and poison, still have the power to wreak devastation. 
Next Best Thing 
Russell said that although one can't stop a terrorist acting alone from
performing such an act, the next best thing would be to detect and
prevent a group from organizing an attack like last week's coordinated
hijackings and suicide bombings. 
"Many people think -- and I tend to agree -- that coordinating such an
attack requires the use of some electronics communications network such
as the Internet," Russell said. "One obvious possibility is monitoring
these networks for items that would seem to relate." 
But the problem intelligence gatherers face, said Russell, is
determining which, of the terabytes of traffic being monitored, relates
to a terrorist organization planning an attack. 
"Given current topics of conversation, how many e-mails don't contain
[the words] terrorist, bomb, plane, or World Trade Center today?"
Russell said. 
Difficult Targets 
Moreover, said Russell, any group of terrorists capable of coordinating
an attack like that of September 11th would be careful with their online
communications, and would try to thwart investigators by using strong
encryption methods and being vague in their discussions. 
Consequently, "the intelligence community already has to have a set of
targets in mind before [online] monitoring will do any good," Russell
said. "Technology can help monitor activities once a suspect has been
identified, but I don't think it will be terribly effective in
identifying them in the first place." 
DARPA's Genoa 
Although such intelligence-sharing technology as the Federal Bureau of
Investigation's (FBI) controversial e-mail monitoring system DCS1000
(formerly "Carnivore") raises doubts about its effectiveness, branches
of the U.S. military are developing more sophisticated tools that will
bypass some of the pitfalls of Carnivore and similar applications. 
Perhaps the most promising is the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency's (DARPA) Genoa Project. According to sources, DARPA's Genoa
employs a combination of a cutting-edge search engine, sophisticated
information harvesting programs, and P2P computing methods. 
Although Genoa is still in an experimental stage, former Reagan cabinet
member John Poindexter told government IT publication Federal Computer
Week that it is evident that White House crisis management efforts
require the use of integrated automation tools, such as those promised
by Genoa. 
Real-World Dangers 
SecurityFocus analyst Russell asserted that for now, real-world attacks
still wreak greater devastation than anything that can be perpetrated in
the online world. 
But as industrialized countries move toward near-total dependence on the
networked world, online attacks may prove to be more destructive. 
"Four coordinated plane crashes? Forget it. The "uber-hacker" can take
out 1,000 Web sites simultaneously," Russell said. 
"Which one causes the greater chaos? Today, the planes. In 10 years, I
don't know."

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