[iwar] [fc:Radicals.gain.street.cred.in.tense.Baluchistan]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-09-26 11:48:01
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 11:48:01 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Radicals.gain.street.cred.in.tense.Baluchistan]
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Radicals gain street cred in tense Baluchistan

   By John Fullerton

    QUETTA, Pakistan, Sept 25, (Reuters)       *****

- They are everywhere.  In black berets and dark grey uniforms,
clutching Chinese-made Ak-47 rifles shiny with age, police stand watch
on every corner, almost every street. 

"We have mobilised all our resources," a senior security official said
on Tuesday.  "We have put up extra posts all over the city, and
checkpoints on all highways. 

"We are providing security for every foreign resident and visitor.  The
situation here is under control -- but it is tense, very tense."

On the surface, Quetta appears to be a sleepy backwater, a provincial
city of 1.5 million people. 

Children run home from school, women in brightly coloured chadors are
out window shopping, their menfolk finger prayer beads, stroke their
beards and argue over endless glasses of sugared tea. 

Yet this desert city is the political, military, economic and
administrative centre for a vast region, and it lies only two-
and-a-half hours' drive from the Afghan border. 

Beyond Quetta itself, Baluchistan province may be sparsely populated
with only 6.5 million out of a national total of around 130 million, but
it covers 43 percent of the country and shares a 1,400 km (850 mile)
border with Afghanistan. 

SHATTERED TRANQUILITY

Quetta's tranquility was shattered two weeks ago after suicide hijackers
attacked targets in New York and Washington, killing about 6,000 people
and prompting U.S.  President George W.  Bush to declare what he called
a global war against terrorism. 

Washington swiftly identified what it said was an Arab-Afghan plot,
named Saudi-born dissident Osama bin Laden as the prime suspect and
demanded that his radical Afghan hosts, the ruling Taliban movement,
hand him over.  It also ordered a rapid military build-up within
striking distance of South Asia. 

Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, gave his country's
support in principle to Washington's efforts to build an international
coalition against "international terror."

But the U.S.  threat of violent retribution has played into the hands of
what security sources say are about 15-20 radical political
organisations in Pakistan, some with access to illegal arms and a few
enjoying a considerable public following. 

The fear is that U.S.  military action across the border, particularly
in the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar, together with a perception that
Pakistan supports such action directly or indirectly, might provide a
trigger for widespread unrest. 

"I think it unlikely that any of these (radical factions) will openly
challenge the authorities right now," said a senior security official
who asked not to be identified. 

"But they will not fail to exploit popular opinion if the opportunity
presents itself and if the international situation deteriorates."

SIX RADICAL GROUPS

The sources identified six of the radical groups:

- Jamiat Ulema Islam, led by Fazlur Rehman.  Radical, Islamist and
popular, the JUI (Fazlur Rehman) helped found Afghanistan's Taliban.  It
is regarded by security sources as the most potent, with an edge over
its rivals in street muscle in Quetta itself.  It has eight of 43 seats
in the provincial assembly.  With headquarters in Dera Ismail Khan in
northern Baluchistan, it has a big following in the towns of Chaman,
Zhob, Pashin and Kalat. 

- Pashtunkwha (Pashtun Nation) Milli Awami Party (PMAP), led by Mehmood
Khan Achakzai.  Leftist, nationalist, and in Quetta, security sources
say, it is second only in street cred to JUI (Fazlur Rehman).  Also
strong in parts of North West Frontier Province (NWFP), it is rumoured
to have links with Afghanistan's Northern Alliance, which is battling
the Taliban.  The sources suggest that in certain circumstances the PMAP
could also agitate on the streets against the Pakistani authorities. 

- Jamiat Ulema Islam, a faction led by Samiul Haq.  Its strength is
concentrated in the NWFP. 

- Jamaat-e-Islami, led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed.  It has some public
support throughout Pakistan, but is not seen as a physical threat to law
and order. 

- Sipha-e-Sahaba, led by Azem Tariq.  A radical Sunni Muslim
organisation, it is seen by security sources as peripheral in Quetta and
limited to perhaps 500 members and active supporters. 

- Tarik-e-Jafria.  A popular Shi'ite Muslim party, pro-Iranian and
anti-Western intervention, it is strong in the NWFP while its support in
Quetta includes members of the exiled Hazara community. 

On Monday evening, security sources told Reuters, two rocket-propelled
grenades were detonated close to Quetta's military base.  There were no
casualties and -- set against the 42 incidents involving explosive
devices detonated in city districts over the past nine months -- it
seemed minor. 

Given the high level of security, though, the fact that a weapon of this
type was fired at all kept security chiefs up for much of the night. 

"We are watching and waiting," said the senior security officer.  "It's
in God's hands now."

09:02 09-25-01

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