[iwar] [fc:Web.Security.Firm.Among.Those.Hit.by.Attacks.Last]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-02 06:18:13


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Web.Security.Firm.Among.Those.Hit.by.Attacks.Last]
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Web Security Firm Among Those Hit by Attacks Last 
By Per Jebsen, Reuters, 10/2/2001
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=T2IFOD2Q0S32CCRBAE0CFEYKEEATGIWD?type=internetnews&StoryID=256919">http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=T2IFOD2Q0S32CCRBAE0CFEYKEEATGIWD?type=internetnews&StoryID=256919>#

RSA Security Inc.  RSAS.O on Monday showed just how widespread the hit
to third-quarter results from the Sept.  11 attacks will be. 

The maker of security software, rather than declare it has benefited
from increased fears of cyberterrorism, instead said the attacks would
cause sales to fall short of expectations. 

RSA joined a broad range of companies in making similar announcements on
Monday and Friday.  The companies include restaurant chains Jack In The
Box Inc.  JBX.N and California Pizza Kitchen Inc.  CPKI.O, as well as
beauty products maker Estee Lauder Cos.  Inc.  EL.N. 

"Things aren't getting any better, and they will continue to be at a
depressed level for some time," said Joe Cooper, an analyst with market
research firm Thomson Financial/First Call. 

"I'm hard stretched to find an industry or an area that's not going to
be affected" by the air attacks on the World Trade Center in New York
and the Pentagon, he said. 

RSA Security cut its third-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $62
million to $63 million from a prior forecast of $72 million to $80
million. 

"The shortfall is the result of orders being significantly cut back,
postponed into the fourth quarter or postponed indefinitely," Chief
Executive Art Coviello said in a conference call. 

The Sept.  11 attacks led to a sharp reduction in spending by RSA
Security's customers, Coviello said. 

"In the last three weeks of the quarter, we booked $10 million less than
the average of the final three weeks of the first and second quarters,"
he said.  Customers reduced orders even though analysts have predicted
"a significant increase in spending to combat cyberterrorism," Coviello
said. 

Restaurant chains Jack in the Box and California Pizza Kitchen said on
Monday that earnings would be lower-than-expected as people stayed away
from their restaurants following the attacks.  They also cited economic
uncertainty, which was already weighing on some U.S.  restaurants. 

Estee Lauder issued an earnings' warning on Friday.  It cut sales and
earnings' forecasts for its fiscal year 2002, saying the attacks on the
United States added to a weakening retail environment. 

Other companies that reduced third-quarter forecasts include Brooks
Automation, Inc.  BRKS.O, a maker of semiconductor production equipment,
and SunGard Data Systems SDS.N, a financial services software company. 
"The trajectory of the economy was negative before the attacks, and I
think the attacks exacerbated the trend as opposed to changing anything
notably," said A.C.  Moore, chief investment strategist at Dunvegan
Associates, which has $500 million in assets under management. 

"Companies are likely to experience or take writeoffs or any expenses
that they can during the current period because markets are more
forgiving with the spirit of national unity sounding," he said.  A few
companies shrugged off the bad business conditions. 

Tank barge operator Kirby Corp.  KEX.N on Monday said its third-quarter
earnings would exceed expectations because of higher shipping volumes
and rates for refined petroleum and chemical products in the U.S. 
Midwest. 

WARNING SEASON

Some 965 companies had made pre-announcements for the third quarter by
Monday morning, with 591 warning they are unlikely to meet prior
guidance, according to First Call. 

The number of warnings, however, is still 15 percent less than in the
same time in the first quarter, and 8 percent less than the same time in
the second quarter, according to First Call's Cooper. 

Third-quarter profits for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to shrink
by 20.1 percent.  That's down from an expected drop of 14.7 percent
prior to the attacks, and more than the 6.2 percent profit drop in
profits expected at the beginning of the quarter. 

S&amp;P 500 company-aggregate profits are expected to shrink by 8.2
percent in the fourth quarter.  That is down from the 2.6 percent
decline expected prior to the attacks, and down from the 5.5 percent
growth expected on July 1. 

Investors shouldn't despair even if the third- and fourth-quarter profit
outlooks worsen, said Dunvegan's Moore. 

"Companies may be using (the attacks) as opportunity to hang out their
earnings' dirty linen," he said. 

Yet "it's what will occur over the next six months to three years that
we would consider to be more important," he said.  "Stocks look to the
future.  The past is the past."


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