Return-Path: <sentto-279987-2639-1002079508-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Tue, 02 Oct 2001 20:29:11 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 30748 invoked by uid 510); 3 Oct 2001 03:27:23 -0000 Received: from n6.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.56) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 3 Oct 2001 03:27:23 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-2639-1002079508-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.1.220] by n6.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 03 Oct 2001 03:27:16 -0000 X-Sender: fc@big.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-7_4_1); 3 Oct 2001 03:25:08 -0000 Received: (qmail 68682 invoked from network); 3 Oct 2001 03:25:07 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.142) by 10.1.1.220 with QMQP; 3 Oct 2001 03:25:07 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta3 with SMTP; 3 Oct 2001 03:27:15 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id UAA10869 for iwar@onelist.com; Tue, 2 Oct 2001 20:27:15 -0700 Message-Id: <200110030327.UAA10869@big.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2001 20:27:15 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] [fc:Intelligence.analysis.software.could.predict.attacks] Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Intelligence analysis software could predict attacks 18:19 02 October 01 Duncan Graham-Rowe Intelligence analysis software being developed in the US could be used to predict future terrorist attacks, claims the research company making it. When complete, they say it will be capable of sifting through and analysing existing databases of information, both public and private, and spotting suspicious patterns of activity. If such a system had been available it might have been capable of predicting the Oklahoma City bombing, and possibly even the World Trade Center disaster, says Anthony Bagdonis of Applied Systems Intelligence in Roswell, Georgia. "We're trying to predict these events before they even happen," he says. The software is called Knowledge Aided Retrieval in Activity Context (KARNAC) and uses "profiles" of different categories of terrorist attacks to seek out key components of possible events. KARNAC will raise concerns about privacy of information, but Bagdonis counters that the prospect of terrorist attacks on the scale of the World Trade Center disaster is more terrifying than losing one's privacy. There are also technical challenges says Winn Schwartau, an information security expert with Interpact Security Awareness: "These sorts of systems would be expensive and require a lot of effort to overcome the compatibility issues of different types of database." Joining the dots Bagdonis says the information for KARNAC would come from both structured and unstructured databases. The former includes gun registrations, driver's licences and criminal records, while the latter would include the internet and newspapers, journals and county records. So, for example, the system might send an alert if someone tried to buy materials that could be used in bomb making, and booked a large truck and a hotel room near a government office. This may seem unlikely, but it is the kind of information that was in fact available on databases before Timothy McVie detonated his bomb in Oklahoma City. "These small pieces of information don't have much of an impact on their own, but collectively they can be very important," says Bagdonis. "The problem is most of these government agencies don't want to share their information," says Bagdonis. But even if they did, computer assistance in sifting the vast quanitity of data would be required. Test of the imagination Although ASI are reluctant to explain precisely how KARNAC works, Bagdonis admits that reliability is an issue. "I can't claim that this is going to work 100 per cent without a glitch," he says. But the data KARNAC is drawing attention to in tests is the same information that FBI agents have identified as important after an event, he says. Nonetheless, in gaining acceptance, KARNAC may have an even greater obstacle the realisation since the 11 September that even very smart technology can be rendered impotent by terrorists intent on carrying out previously unimaginable atrocities. ------------------------ Yahoo! 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-12-31 20:59:53 PST