Return-Path: <sentto-279987-2699-1002251127-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Thu, 04 Oct 2001 20:11:36 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 24207 invoked by uid 510); 5 Oct 2001 03:07:44 -0000 Received: from n2.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.52) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 5 Oct 2001 03:07:44 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-2699-1002251127-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.1.221] by n2.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2001 03:07:40 -0000 X-Sender: fc@big.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-7_4_1); 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000 Received: (qmail 75842 invoked from network); 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.27) by 10.1.1.221 with QMQP; 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta2 with SMTP; 5 Oct 2001 03:07:28 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id UAA02488 for iwar@onelist.com; Thu, 4 Oct 2001 20:07:19 -0700 Message-Id: <200110050307.UAA02488@big.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2001 20:07:18 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] [fc:Anticipate.Major.Escalation.By.Terrorists] Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Subject: Anticipate Major Escalation By Terrorists Anticipate Major Escalation By Terrorists To Coincide With, Or Anticipate, Western Strikes Against Bin Laden, Taliban Analysis By Gregory R. Copley Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily October 3, 2001 Analysis by GIS regional and terrorism specialists indicates that one or more major new terrorist strikes against Western targets can be expected in the near future. It is believed that the strike, or strikes, would be of a different nature to the September 11, 2001, aircraft hijackings and suicide missions, and are likely to be attempted at an even more significant scale than the September 11, 2001, strikes. The following appear to be the salient points: 1. Type of Target: It can be assumed that a new strike at this time would target a civilian, rather than an operational, target (or targets), based on the fact that such an episode may be the last opportunity the terrorist sponsors have to create public paralysis and shock. It is assumed that military or operational targets would be reserved for after (or at the beginning of) the commencement of conventional military operations by the West. 2. Terrorist Goals: It is believed that key goals of the terrorist sponsors in any near-term strike(s) would include: (a) polarization of Western societies from Muslim societies, thereby forcing Muslim societies to reject the West, and coalesce around radical Islamist leadership(s), in a situation which would irreconcilably pit the two blocs against each other; (b) a demonstration that the sponsors of the terrorism remain unafraid of a Western response, and, in fact, escalate their challenge for such an event; and (c) impose as much damage on Western economies as possible. 3. Timing: Given that a major Western strike at the Taliban infrastructure and the bin Laden infrastructure in Afghanistan can be anticipated within days, or a few weeks at most, such a strike or series of strikes must be anticipated within that timeframe, and sooner rather than later. 4. Location: Just as the United States' President warned that states harboring terrorists would suffer just as the terrorist would themselves suffer, the sponsors of the terrorism need to demonstrate that all those who allied themselves with the United States in the "war on terrorism" would also be vulnerable. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Tony Blair, reinforced, with a speech on October 2, 2001, that Britain is the principal ally of the US in this conflict. The UK has also sent Special Air Service (SAS) and other special forces teams to the Central/South Asian region to participate in strikes at the Taliban and bin Laden, and has a major combined service task force already in the region [for Exercise Saif Sareea II, a joint exercise scheduled for October 2001 with the Sultan of Oman's Armed Forces (SOAF)]. Thus the most significant new civilian target would seem to be the City of London: the financial district which serves - as much as or more than New York in many senses - as the global financial hub. 5. Scale: It is presumed that the September 11, 2001, strikes were conducted by the same sponsors as a major series of earlier anti-US strikes: the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York; the Nairobi and Dar-es Salaam US Embassy attacks of August 1998; the 2000 USS Cole bombing; and others. The scale, diversity and shock-value of the incidents has demonstrated ambition, growth and imagination. Reports, therefore, of the possible sale of a small, former Soviet nuclear weapon to the bin Laden organization should be taken seriously [see 1, below.] GIS reported earlier [See Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, September 26, 2001: Major New Bin Laden Strike Anticipated] that the bin Laden organization was expected to move against a major US or Pakistani target within the coming week. This estimate has now been widened to include the UK. It is also believed that the strike against the Jammu & Kashmir regional legislature on October 1, 2001, killing an estimated 29 people [See Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, October 2, 2001] was directly interrelated with the overall escalation of bin Laden-oriented terrorism. This estimate disagrees absolutely with the Indian Government estimate, which blames the Kashmir attack directly on the Pakistan Government as the alleged principal sponsor of the Jaish-e Mohammadi (JeM) terrorist group, headed by Moulana Azhar Masood. Azhar Masood had been detained by the Indian Government until December 1999, when he was released as part of a hostage exchange for passengers on a hijacked Indian Airways flight. Significantly, the aircraft was flown at the time to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of the Taliban, and the prisoner exchange was made there. GIS believes that the strike at the J&K Parliament building was undertaken specifically to discredit Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, demonstrating to him, the Indian Government and the world, that the network of terrorist organizations would and could continue their jihads with impunity. The Musharraf Administration had moved, in August 2001, specifically and pointedly against Jaish-e Mohammadi and several other groups [see Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, August 27, 2001: Pakistan Government's Confrontation With Jihadi Movements Begins to Heighten.] It is believed important to the bin Laden organization - in order to ensure that the significant spread of pro-Taliban and pro-bin Laden groups in the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan area (even extending into Bangladesh and Myanmar, Indonesia, etc.) remain relatively free to operate in the present climate - that there be no rapprochement between India and Pakistan. The attack of October 1, 2001, in Srinagar, J&K, would appear to have helped ensure that objective. Notes 1. The Russian periodical Vremya Novostei reported on September 28, 2001, that Spanish security officials, with support from agencies in the US, United Kingdom, France, and Israel, were seeking to arrest Russian national Semen Mogilevich, who was reputed to be an organized crime figure with possible connection to the disappearance of a small nuclear device supposedly lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The agencies were reportedly concerned that Mogilevich might have sold this portable nuclear weapon to the Taliban. ------------------------ Yahoo! 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-12-31 20:59:54 PST