[iwar] [fc:Anticipate.Major.Escalation.By.Terrorists]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-04 20:07:18


Return-Path: <sentto-279987-2699-1002251127-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com>
Delivered-To: fc@all.net
Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Thu, 04 Oct 2001 20:11:36 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (qmail 24207 invoked by uid 510); 5 Oct 2001 03:07:44 -0000
Received: from n2.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.52) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 5 Oct 2001 03:07:44 -0000
X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-2699-1002251127-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com
Received: from [10.1.1.221] by n2.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2001 03:07:40 -0000
X-Sender: fc@big.all.net
X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com
Received: (EGP: mail-7_4_1); 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000
Received: (qmail 75842 invoked from network); 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000
Received: from unknown (10.1.10.27) by 10.1.1.221 with QMQP; 5 Oct 2001 03:05:26 -0000
Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta2 with SMTP; 5 Oct 2001 03:07:28 -0000
Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id UAA02488 for iwar@onelist.com; Thu, 4 Oct 2001 20:07:19 -0700
Message-Id: <200110050307.UAA02488@big.all.net>
To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List)
Organization: I'm not allowed to say
X-Mailer: don't even ask
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1]
From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com
Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com
Precedence: bulk
List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2001 20:07:18 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Anticipate.Major.Escalation.By.Terrorists]
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Subject: Anticipate Major Escalation By Terrorists

Anticipate Major Escalation By Terrorists To Coincide With, Or Anticipate,
Western Strikes Against Bin Laden, Taliban Analysis
By Gregory R. Copley
Defense &amp; Foreign Affairs Daily
October 3, 2001
 
Analysis by GIS regional and terrorism specialists indicates that one or
more major new terrorist strikes against Western targets can be expected
in the near future.  It is believed that the strike, or strikes, would
be of a different nature to the September 11, 2001, aircraft hijackings
and suicide missions, and are likely to be attempted at an even more
significant scale than the September 11, 2001, strikes.  The following
appear to be the salient points:

1.  Type of Target: It can be assumed that a new strike at this time
would target a civilian, rather than an operational, target (or
targets), based on the fact that such an episode may be the last
opportunity the terrorist sponsors have to create public paralysis and
shock.  It is assumed that military or operational targets would be
reserved for after (or at the beginning of) the commencement of
conventional military operations by the West. 

2.  Terrorist Goals: It is believed that key goals of the terrorist
sponsors in any near-term strike(s) would include: (a) polarization of
Western societies from Muslim societies, thereby forcing Muslim
societies to reject the West, and coalesce around radical Islamist
leadership(s), in a situation which would irreconcilably pit the two
blocs against each other; (b) a demonstration that the sponsors of the
terrorism remain unafraid of a Western response, and, in fact, escalate
their challenge for such an event; and (c) impose as much damage on
Western economies as possible. 

3.  Timing: Given that a major Western strike at the Taliban
infrastructure and the bin Laden infrastructure in Afghanistan can be
anticipated within days, or a few weeks at most, such a strike or series
of strikes must be anticipated within that timeframe, and sooner rather
than later. 

4.  Location: Just as the United States' President warned that states
harboring terrorists would suffer just as the terrorist would themselves
suffer, the sponsors of the terrorism need to demonstrate that all those
who allied themselves with the United States in the "war on terrorism"
would also be vulnerable.  The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom,
Tony Blair, reinforced,

with a speech on October 2, 2001, that Britain is the principal ally of
the US in this conflict. 

The UK has also sent Special Air Service (SAS) and other special forces
teams to the Central/South Asian region to participate in strikes at the
Taliban and bin Laden, and has a major combined service task force
already in the region [for Exercise Saif Sareea II, a joint exercise
scheduled for October 2001 with the Sultan of Oman's Armed Forces
(SOAF)].  Thus the most significant new civilian target would seem to be
the City of London: the financial district which serves - as much as or
more than New York in many senses - as the global financial hub.  5. 
Scale: It is presumed that the September 11, 2001, strikes were
conducted by the same sponsors as a major series of earlier anti-US
strikes: the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York; the
Nairobi and Dar-es Salaam US Embassy attacks of August 1998; the 2000
USS Cole bombing; and others.  The scale, diversity and shock-value of
the incidents has demonstrated ambition, growth and imagination. 
Reports, therefore, of the possible sale of a small, former Soviet
nuclear weapon to the bin Laden organization should be taken seriously
[see 1, below.] GIS reported earlier [See Defense &amp; Foreign Affairs
Daily, September 26, 2001: Major New Bin Laden Strike Anticipated] that
the bin Laden organization was expected to move against a major US or
Pakistani target within the coming week.  This estimate has now been
widened to include the UK.  It is also believed that the strike against
the Jammu &amp; Kashmir regional legislature on October 1, 2001, killing
an estimated 29 people [See Defense &amp; Foreign Affairs Daily, October
2, 2001] was directly interrelated with the overall escalation of bin
Laden-oriented terrorism.  This estimate disagrees absolutely with the
Indian Government estimate, which blames the Kashmir attack directly on
the Pakistan Government as the alleged principal sponsor of the Jaish-e
Mohammadi (JeM) terrorist group, headed by Moulana Azhar Masood.  Azhar
Masood had been detained by the Indian Government until December 1999,
when he was released as part of a hostage exchange for passengers on a
hijacked Indian Airways flight.  Significantly, the aircraft was flown
at the time to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of the
Taliban, and the prisoner exchange was made there.  GIS believes that
the strike at the J&amp;K Parliament building was undertaken
specifically to discredit Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf,
demonstrating to him, the Indian Government and the world, that the
network of terrorist organizations would and could continue their jihads
with impunity.  The Musharraf Administration had moved, in August 2001,

specifically and pointedly against Jaish-e Mohammadi and several other
groups [see Defense &amp; Foreign Affairs Daily, August 27, 2001:
Pakistan Government's Confrontation With Jihadi Movements Begins to
Heighten.] It is believed important to the bin Laden organization - in
order to ensure that the significant spread of pro-Taliban and pro-bin
Laden groups in the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan area (even extending into
Bangladesh and Myanmar, Indonesia, etc.) remain relatively free to
operate in the present climate - that there be no rapprochement between
India and Pakistan.  The attack of October 1, 2001, in Srinagar,
J&amp;K, would appear to have helped ensure that objective. 

Notes 1.  The Russian periodical Vremya Novostei reported on September
28, 2001, that Spanish security officials, with support from agencies in
the US, United Kingdom, France, and Israel, were seeking to arrest
Russian national Semen Mogilevich, who was reputed to be an organized
crime figure with possible connection to the disappearance of a small
nuclear device supposedly lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 
The agencies were reportedly concerned that Mogilevich might have sold
this portable nuclear weapon to the Taliban.

------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Pinpoint the right security solution for your company- Learn how to add 128- bit encryption and to authenticate your web site with VeriSign's FREE guide!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/yQix2C/33_CAA/yigFAA/kgFolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->

------------------
http://all.net/ 

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ 



This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-12-31 20:59:54 PST