[iwar] [fc:Experts.Fear.Cyberspace.Could.Be.Terrorists'.Next.Target]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-10 18:28:05
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Experts Fear Cyberspace Could Be Terrorists' Next Target

10-09-2001 12:19 PM
By Jon Swartz
USA Today
October 09, 2001

SAN FRANCISCO -- For 3 1/2 years, a shadowy group of computer hackers
has broken into hundreds of computer networks and stolen thousands of
top-secret files on Pentagon war-planning systems and NASA technical
research. 

Dubbed the ''Moonlight Maze'' group, the hackers continue to elude the
FBI, the CIA and the National Security Agency -- despite the biggest
cyberprobe ever. 

And while no one knows what is being done with the classified
information, some fear the thefts may be the work of terrorists or that
the information could be sold to terrorists. 

''I'm not saying it is a terrorist group.  But it could be,'' says James
Adams, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, a research group chaired by former senator Sam Nunn. 

What is clear is that the hackers' success exposes the vulnerability of
computer networks in the USA at the height of the information age.  A
coordinated terrorist attack, experts say, could topple the Internet,
muting communications and e-commerce and paralyzing federal agencies and
businesses. 

''We are picking up signs that terrorist organizations are looking at
the use of technology'' to attack the USA, Congress was told last month
by Michael Vatis, director of the Institute for Security Technology
Studies at Dartmouth College and former head of the FBI's National
Infrastructure Protection Center. 

Alarmed by the Sept.  11 attacks, government and security experts are
clamoring for the USA -- the world's most wired nation -- to craft
better cyberdefenses.  They want tougher laws against hackers and more
resources and closer cooperation among agencies to thwart attacks. 

While the Internet is now so dispersed that a debilitating physical
attack is unlikely, an electronic one could destabilize major parts of
the USA's communications grid and economy, government and security
officials warn. 

A successful electronic attack could interrupt power supplies to
millions of homes, disrupt air traffic control systems and thus
airlines, shut down water supplies, cut off access to emergency 911
services and delay millions of dollars in financial transactions. 

That's because critical U.S.  infrastructures are increasingly tied to
the Internet.  And many government agencies and companies are
ill-prepared to defend themselves against cyberattacks despite repeated
warnings and hacker break-ins. 

''Computer networks are the roads and bridges of the information age,''
says Stanton McCandlish of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a civil
liberties group.  ''They are prime terrorist targets.''

Technologically savvy Sen.  Robert Bennett, R-Utah, agrees: ''There is a
real vulnerability and an opportunity for bad guys to inflict serious
damage.''

The cyberstrikes that U.S.  officials fear may not come from Osama bin
Laden's al-Qa'eda terrorist organization despite its broad use of
technology.  That group seems intent on dramatic attacks on physical
symbols like the World Trade Center, experts say.  The Internet, by
contrast, is a vast collection of millions of computers, network
switches, data lines, cables and satellites. 

But cyberattacks could be launched by other terrorists or nations such
as Iraq that support terrorism and who government officials say are
developing cyberwarfare capabilities. 

During NATO airstrikes of Serbia and Kosovo in 1999, some NATO Web sites
were disabled by Serbian-sponsored computer hackers, NATO says.  In
recent years, Web sites for the Defense Department have been shut down
by hackers. 

'Most vulnerable society'

Cyberattacks grow more serious as the Internet grows more important. 
Nearly $1 trillion in goods and services will be sold via the Internet
this year, market researcher Gartner says.  And the Internet is
essential to businesses and workers as a key communications tool.  ''The
U.S.  is the most vulnerable society because we're the most wired,''
Bennett says. 

Here is how experts assess the chances that various types of
cyberattacks would succeed:

* Very likely.  Electronic warfare is the most feared threat.  It could
come in the form of denial-of-service attacks, in which hackers
overwhelm and disable Web sites with junk data.  Other electronic
attacks include computer worms and viruses -- malicious computer
programs that spread via the Net and erase computer data and clog
Internet traffic. 

This year, four computer worms and viruses rated as ''high risk'' by
leading security firms have cost companies and consumers more than $5
billion in damage and cleanup costs.  The ''Nimda'' worm, which
infiltrated more than 1 million computers, slowed the Net and forced
some companies to cut off employee Internet access.  Earlier, the Code
Red worm knocked out public access to major consumer Web sites. 

Nimda surfaced after the Sept.  11 attacks, although there is no
evidence linking the two.  But the proliferation of worms shows that few
systems are immune. 

''The consensus among hackers is that the Internet infrastructure can
easily be disabled temporarily and -- in some cases -- (for) a long
time,'' says Peter Neumann of research firm SRI International. 

No wonder.  Last year, the General Accounting Office, the investigative
arm of Congress, found that the 24 largest government agencies,
including the Defense and Treasury departments, inadequately protect
their computer networks.  An August GAO audit of the Commerce
Department, which compiles economic data, showed that hackers could gain
access.  Several months earlier, a probe into the Department of Health
and Human Services found similar weaknesses in that department's
network.  The agency processed more than $200 billion in Medicare
expenditures in fiscal 2000.  ''We need a Manhattan Project for
counterterrorism technology,'' Vatis says. 

Vulnerabilities have been exposed.  In 1997, the Joint Chiefs of Staff
launched a cyberattack exercise, code-named Eligible Receiver, to test
the USA's computer defenses.  Using hacking tools posted on the
Internet, a team of 35 hackers broke into the power grids of nine U.S. 
cities and cracked their emergency systems.  Another group hacked
Pentagon computers, crippling U.S.  war-planning operations.  A second
exercise in 1999, called Zenith Star, exposed similar flaws. 

* Likely.  State-sponsored computer warfare is aimed at the USA.  The
electronic trail following the Moonlight Maze cyberthieves led in 1999
to a Moscow Internet address.  But that could be a fake trail,
government officials say.  One theory: The group is a ''sophisticated,
well-funded national agency,'' Adams says. 

More than 30 countries, including Russia and Iraq, have developed
''asymmetrical warfare'' strategies targeting vulnerabilities in U.S. 
computer systems.  Because of U.S.  military superiority, the countries
see electronic warfare as their best bet to puncture U.S.  defenses,
military experts say. 

American intelligence is closely monitoring China, which has established
a special information-warfare group.  A coordinated physical and
electronic attack offers a more chilling scenario.  Terrorists blow up
structures, then hack the power grid and emergency systems in those
cities, complicating rescue efforts.  Meanwhile, a computer worm wipes
out financial records.  ''It's a classic bin Laden tactic,'' says David
Thompson, security analyst at Meta Group.  ''It multiplies the effects
of a physical attack.''

* Unlikely.  The cutting of hundreds of fiber-optic cables -- which
carry Internet traffic between major hubs -- knocks out portions of the
Net. 

Such an operation would require intimate knowledge of where key data
hubs are, which only a handful of Internet firms know.  It also would
require a herculean effort.  Some fiber cables are underwater, and
''you'd need a submarine,'' says Sunny Vanderbeck, CEO of Web-hoster
Data Return.  Plus, such an attack would be short-lived because Internet
traffic would be automatically rerouted, he says. 

* Very unlikely.  The bombing of Internet facilities, such as major data
hubs, cripples the Internet.  ''Nearly impossible,'' says Weston
Nicolls, a former member of the National Security Agency now at security
firm Telenisus. 

That's because the Internet resembles a cobweb of geographically
dispersed facilities.  There are major routing hubs in Silicon Valley,
Washington, Chicago, Dallas and New Jersey, market researcher IDC says. 
They link hundreds of Internet service providers and are fed data from
regional routing hubs nationwide.  Then, there are miles and miles of
cable, hundreds of Internet data centers that run Web operations and
thousands of satellites that link companies to the Internet. 

Built to survive

Because there is no single key structure and many backup systems, any
successful attack would require a series of strategic bombings, Internet
experts say. 

''The Internet was built to withstand a nuclear disaster,'' adds IDC
analyst Steve Harris.  ''When (East Coast) phone service was down Sept. 
11, e-mail was working all day.  The Internet is resilient.''

It would also require plenty of inside information from AT&amp;T, UUnet,
Sprint and other telecom companies.  UUnet, which handles a big chunk of
global online traffic, has not disclosed locations of its network hubs
for years for competitive and security reasons. 

Also, once-vulnerable physical Internet locations are now less
susceptible. 

MAE West, a carrier exchange in San Jose, Calif., routes Internet
traffic primarily in the Western USA.  It and its Eastern counterpart,
MAE East, were once considered prime targets. 

But, fearing attack, backup systems were set up in recent years.  If
either is knocked out, traffic is automatically rerouted.  ''The
buildings are insurance,'' says cybersecurity lawyer Matt Yarbrough. 

Still, more is needed, many say.  ''Sept.  11 was an overdue wake-up
call,'' Neumann says.  Lawmakers are pushing an antiterrorism bill that
defines hacking of ''secure'' government computers as terrorist acts. 
The Bush administration also named Richard Clar ke, who currently heads
the government's counterterrorism team, to focus on cybersecurity
efforts. 

''The U.S.  is a target,'' Bennett says.  ''But we're probably the most
capable to wage this kind of warfare if attacked.''

� Copyright 2001 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co.  Inc. 

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