Re: [iwar] EMP and other questions

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-13 15:17:16


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In-Reply-To: <OCEDLLJFJEMAFJGHDCLNEEHKCMAA.cpreston@gci.net> from "Charles Preston" at Oct 13, 2001 12:44:46 PM
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2001 15:17:16 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: [iwar] EMP and other questions
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Per the message sent by Charles Preston:

> With respect to suitcase nuclear weapons of about 1 kiloton yield, what are
> the prospects for EMP to destroy a large computer or communications center
> within a few miles (further than blast range)?  Would height be a factor
> (guarding structures of 10 stories or more)?

A typical nuclear weapon will be pretty devastating for a radius of at
least 25-50 miles from the blast point - if detonated appropriately.

1Kton is pretty small, however, if you look at the computation I put on
the iwar forum comparing an atomic blast to a 747 full of fuel exploding,
you will be abelt to get a sense of it.

> Are the nuclear weapons much more detectable than another design (explosive
> microwave generator EMP weapon, for example)?  Are gamma ray emitters
> detectable from orbit?

There are a variety of detection methods which can sense different
radiation patterns from different places...  are you talking about
before or after detonation?

> Is it feasible for someone to consider simultaneous destruction of MAE East,
> MAE West and other centers along with a few satellite ground links?

This would not be as bad as you might think, however, it would be pretty
bad.  In answer to your quesiton, yes it has been considered and this
particular scenario is certainly feasible, but it is somewhat more
complex than you might imagine - both to do and to defend against.  In
the end, if you have real serious nuclear weapons capability with
delivery mechanisms, the options probably reduce to pre-emptive strike
and negotiation.  In the case of the folks now under consideration, I
would wildly guess that George would choose the former.

> Is it
> less difficult to accomplish this with a combination of insider sabotage and
> software?  Some of the characteristics of the past few years' major attacks
> are low cost, cost efficiency, and technological simplicity.  Does that
> imply that an attack on communications centers is less likely than other
> targets?

Targetting in this case likely depends greatly on attacker objectives. 
IF you only think about targets you will quickly determine that
everything is a potential terrorist target.  Then you are back where you
started. 

FC
--This communication is confidential to the parties it is intended to serve--
Fred Cohen		Fred Cohen & Associates.........tel/fax:925-454-0171
fc@all.net		The University of New Haven.....http://www.unhca.com/
http://all.net/		Sandia National Laboratories....tel:925-294-2087


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