[iwar] The Carriers

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-17 18:03:21


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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2001 18:03:21 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] The Carriers
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Mission: Impossible - Episode 13: The Carriers

Deep behind the Iron Curtain, an insidious special training center is
built to resemble a typical American small town.  Enemy agents are being
taught the American way so they can infiltrate and undermine our
population.  The IMF team, disguised as recruits, enters the center -
only to discover the plan to destroy the US is already underway!

The plan is to infect the folks with a deadly disease (not Smallpox at
that time because US citizens were largely immune) by having the
carriers distribute themselves around the nation - not even knowing they
were infected.  By the time the disease spreads widely, the original
carriers are dead and cannot be traced back to the source.  In the
meanwhile, the US has massive population deaths and utter failure of the
public health system.

Today, this can be done - may already be underway - with smallpox - a
weaponized disease that nobody left in the US (to speak of) is immune to
any longer.  The public health plan is to 'vaccinate around the
incident' so that enough people near the folks who have it will be
protected to prevent epidemics.  The problem is that this won't work
against the plan proposed in Mission Impossible because we don't have
enough vaccines, because widespread travel makes this sort of thing
highly ineffective, and because there are other agents with similar
potential impacts (including influenza) that we cannot protect against
as effectively as even this.  The enemies of the US, presumably, already
have the agents in place to start the massive biological attack.

In the case of Smallpox, the solution is to build enough vaccines for the
whole population and immunize everyone.  I did it when I was a kid and
so should everyone in the US today.  There is no reason not to, and we
can and should manufacture enough vaccines ASAP to do the job, while
delivering the present vaccines to the higher population areas most
vulnerable people and most likely vector for spread - school aged
children - who tend to have the highest exposure and are most threatened
over their life.

Part 2 - if it happens - what do we really do.  The answer is an
interesting proposal.  Replace transportation with communication.  In
other words, use the Internet and information infrastructure far more
than we do today.  Buy groceries this way and have them delivered in a
manner that eliminates the need for physical contact or proximity. 
Eliminate the massive use of air transport in favor of a better ground
system (i.e., trains, trucks, cars), and go to video-conferencing instead
of the vast majority of business meetings.  Don't buy it.  Here's a bet. 
If an epidemic hits, this will be the dominant mode of operation for
survivors and it will be instrumental in countering the epidemic spread
of disease.

Information warfare - defensive.

FC

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