[iwar] [fc:Exit.strategy¹.not.applicable.to.terrorism.fight]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-17 18:33:27


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Exit.strategy¹.not.applicable.to.terrorism.fight]
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October 16, 2001

ŒExit strategy¹ not applicable to terrorism fight

By Eun-Kyung Kim
Associated Press 

In an open-ended war against terrorism far different than past
conflicts, the Bush administration warns that even success in
Afghanistan won¹t mean a quick and clean exit. 

The White House is starting to think about what Afghanistan might look
like when, or if, U.S.-led military strikes succeed in kicking out Osama
bin Laden¹s terrorist network and smashing his ruling Taliban
protectors. 

Beyond that, there¹s no clear solution in sight. 

³This will be a long war,² President Bush said recently.  ³It requires
understanding and patience from the American people.²

Unlike many past wars, military troops fighting terrorists cannot simply
storm into enemy territory, eliminate the opponent, then leave.  In
Afghanistan, for example, the United States will be pressured to ensure
that whatever government follows the Taliban is stable enough to prevent
another outbreak of war, or more support for terrorists. 

³Fighting a war on terrorism is quite different than extracting Iraq
from Kuwait or even bringing down the Nazi regime,² said Jack Spencer, a
defense analyst at The Heritage Foundation. 

While insisting it won¹t choose Afghanistan¹s next leaders, the Bush
administration is consulting with Afghanistan¹s neighbors and foes of
the ruling Taliban militia to determine the shape a future government. 

Bush administration officials have denounced the Taliban as
unrepresentative of the people and have insisted on change. 

Even if the United States roots out bin Laden¹s terrorist network in
Afghanistan, the U.S.  campaign is expected to go beyond that.  Few
experts believe the United States will ever get to the point where
leaders can declare they have won the war against terrorism. 

Past war strategies hardly fit.  Even Secretary of State Colin Powell
would admit his so-called Powell doctrine ‹ set clear goals and then use
overwhelming force to achieve victory ‹ doesn¹t apply because it¹s
uncertain when victory can be declared. 

³Forget about exit strategies,² Defense Secretary Donald H.  Rumsfeld
said in a recent newspaper editorial.  Then, as the United States
launched its initial attack on Afghanistan, he said the strikes were
part of a ³much larger effort against worldwide terrorism,² one likely
to last ³for a period of years, not weeks or months.²

Former Pentagon strategist Michele Flournoy compared the war against
terrorism to another ubiquitous war ‹ the one against crime. 

³Is there an exit strategy for that, where you would stop law
enforcement, where you stop policing, then think there¹s never going to
be more crime? Of course not,² said Flournoy, a senior adviser at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

But some critics fear that providing a plan and time frame for
withdrawal is the only way to prevent the campaign against terrorism
from turning into another Bosnia ‹ where American peacekeepers remain
years after they were expected to return home ‹ or even Vietnam. 

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer says Bush is opposed to the idea of
leaving U.S.  troops in Afghanistan indefinitely, and opposed to the
idea of using troops for ³nation-building² activities, such as building
schools and creating a civil society.  Bush has said the United Nations
might lead such efforts. 

The terrorism campaign is harder to define because U.S.  authorities are
still trying to determine the sources of threats. 

³Who would have thought that a couple of guys on an airplane with knives
would turn those things into bombs that took down the World Trade
Center?² said Harland Ullman, a national security analyst at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies.  ³How do you deal with that?
There¹s no order of battle.²

Ullman called the liberal use of the word ³war² by politicians and the
media misleading because ³this is not a war.²

³A war is between entities that have some sort of confirmed aims and
objectives and prevention is not really an objective that you can
ultimately declare victory,² he said. 

³The problem here is that because it is not a war, and it is an ongoing
campaign, there may never be an exit strategy.  It¹s like war against
cancer and disease.  You just keep plowing through it.²

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