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From: "Mohammad Ozair Rasheed" <ozair_rasheed@geocities.com>
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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2001 18:11:14 +0500
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [iwar] FW: As Predicted
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The following article is authored by Eric Margolis, an American analyst
on the Middle East and South Asia. These days he is a frequent guest in
CNN's Q&A.
"As Predicted"
NEW YORK (Oct. 7, 2001) - The long-awaited US attack
on Afghanistan
appears imminent.
In a repeat of the 1991 Gulf War, the US has
completed
building a coalition to back its military aims, and
has
pressured two key nations, Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan, into
reluctant participation in President Bush's
`crusade.'
The US has two war aims. First, capture or kill
Osama bin
Laden, who is hiding in the mountains of
Afghanistan.
Second, overthrow Afghanistan's de facto government,
Taliban, and replace it by the US and Russian backed
Northern Alliance, which will open the way for
American-owned oil and gas pipelines running south
from
Uzbekistan.
As of this writing, the US apparently lacks precise
information on bin Laden's whereabouts. He may be
hiding
in the extensive network of caves and tunnels in the
Hindu
Kush mountains that he helped construct during the
1980's war against Soviet occupation. Some reports
put
him in the remote Wakhan Corridor, a wild,
uncharted,
region of high, snow-capped mountains that extends
northeast to the Chinese border. I know this remote
area
because in the early 1980's, I helped get China to
deliver
machine guns and mortars across Wakhan by yak trains
to
Afghan mujihadin forces battling the Soviets
invaders.
Washington intends to send commandos into
Afghanistan,
backed by 350-400 warplanes, C-130U `Spooky'
gunships,
and helicopter gunships flying from former Soviet
bases in
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Delta Force, Navy Seals,
Army
Rangers, Marine recon units, and light infantry from
the
10th Mountain Division are slated to be used -
ensuring all
services get a share of the action and glory. US
units will
work with Britain's elite SAS, whose primary mission
is
reconnaissance and targeting. Russia may send in its
Spetsnaz commandos, and KGB's elite Alpha assault
team.
These forces are adequate for lightening raids, but
not for
large-scale, sustained operations inside
Afghanistan, even
against Taliban's ragtag, lightly-armed, 30,000
tribal
warriors. A massive, Iraq-style bombing campaign is
unlikely: medieval, famine-stricken Afghanistan
offers few
military targets. Bin Laden's lair, and Taliban HQ's
in Kabul,
Jalalabad, and Kandahar will be the main targets for
air and
ground assaults.
But locating bin Laden will be difficult; capturing
him, far
harder. Afghanistan's mountains are wild and jagged.
Frequent dust storms pose major dangers to
helicopter
operations. Inserting helicopter-born troops into a
narrow
valley is perilous, particularly if enemy forces
control the
high ground and can fire down at the aircraft with
heavy
machine guns and RPG anti-tank rockets. This writer
saw
heavily armored Soviet HIND helicopter gunships
destroyed in this manner during the 1980's war.
If bin Laden can be located but not snatched, the US
could
attack him with still secret bombs that can
penetrate up to
30 meters of rock and earth and/or deadly fuel air
explosives(FAE). These `mini-A bombs' release an
aerosol
of vaporized gasoline over a large area, then
detonate. The
result is huge, lethal overpressure that ruptures
the lungs
and other internal organs of anyone below, even
those
sheltered in bunkers, caves, or basements of
concrete
buildings. The Russians make extensive use of FAE's
against Chechen independence fighters and civilians.
Failure to swiftly kill or capture bin Laden has his
few
hundred armed supporters means the US may have to
deploy many more troops in Afghanistan - likely from
the
82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions -and hunt for the
elusive militant. Sweep operations seeking the
Scarlet
Pimpernel of the Hind Kush would expose American
soldiers to clashes with Afghan fighters, accidents,
and the
10 million or more mines left behind by the Soviets.
The US
could quickly get bogged down in a chaotic, lethal
Beirut
or Somalia-like situation where it is impossible to
tell friend
from foe.
Washington clearly intends to put the Northern
Alliance
into power. But this unsavory collection of ethnic
Tajiks
and Uzbeks cannot hope to rule over Afghanistan's
majority Pakhtuns. The last time a Tajik-led
government
held Kabul in 1994-5, it refused to share power. The
result
was civil war. The Northern Alliance may have to
rely for
survival on the bayonets of US and British troops.
Taliban's Pashtuns say they will take to the hills
and wage
guerrilla war against the Alliance, which is widely
viewed in
Afghanistan as a creature of the Russians and
Americans.
Déjà vu. In 1983, US Marines were sent to Beirut to
prop up
a minority regime in the midst of civil war.
Hundreds of US
Marines died.
Traditional warfare in Afghanistan involves bribing
tribal
leaders to switch sides. This is how Taliban got
into power.
US threats and money may induce some Pashtun tribes
to
ditch Taliban and, if the US is very lucky, hand
over bin
Laden, dead or alive. Pakistan's intelligence
agency, ISI,
could play a key role in getting tribes to abandon
Taliban,
though its level of cooperation with America's war
remains
in question.
War always has unpredictable consequences. Once
combat begins, the best laid plans go awry. The US
must
strike quickly and decisively, or risk getting
bogged down
in an aimless war in one of the world' least
accessible
nations whose reputation as graveyard of invaders is
well
and richly deserved.
Copyright: Eric S. Margolis 2001
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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