[iwar] FW: As Predicted

From: Mohammad Ozair Rasheed (ozair_rasheed@geocities.com)
Date: 2001-10-22 06:11:14


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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2001 18:11:14 +0500
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Subject: [iwar] FW: As Predicted
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The following article is authored by Eric Margolis, an American analyst
on the Middle East and South Asia. These days he is a frequent guest in
CNN's Q&A.


                                              "As Predicted"


                    NEW YORK (Oct. 7, 2001) - The long-awaited US attack
on Afghanistan
                    appears imminent.

                    In a repeat of the 1991 Gulf War, the US has
completed
                    building a coalition to back its military aims, and
has
                    pressured two key nations, Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan, into
                    reluctant participation in President Bush's
`crusade.'

                    The US has two war aims. First, capture or kill
Osama bin
                    Laden, who is hiding in the mountains of
Afghanistan.
                    Second, overthrow Afghanistan's de facto government,
                    Taliban, and replace it by the US and Russian backed
                    Northern Alliance, which will open the way for
                    American-owned oil and gas pipelines running south
from
                    Uzbekistan.

                    As of this writing, the US apparently lacks precise
                    information on bin Laden's whereabouts. He may be
hiding
                    in the extensive network of caves and tunnels in the
Hindu
                    Kush mountains that he helped construct during the
                    1980's war against Soviet occupation. Some reports
put
                    him in the remote Wakhan Corridor, a wild,
uncharted,
                    region of high, snow-capped mountains that extends
                    northeast to the Chinese border. I know this remote
area
                    because in the early 1980's, I helped get China to
deliver
                    machine guns and mortars across Wakhan by yak trains
to
                    Afghan mujihadin forces battling the Soviets
invaders.

                    Washington intends to send commandos into
Afghanistan,
                    backed by 350-400 warplanes, C-130U `Spooky'
gunships,
                    and helicopter gunships flying from former Soviet
bases in
                    Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Delta Force, Navy Seals,
Army
                    Rangers, Marine recon units, and light infantry from
the
                    10th Mountain Division are slated to be used -
ensuring all
                    services get a share of the action and glory. US
units will
                    work with Britain's elite SAS, whose primary mission
is
                    reconnaissance and targeting. Russia may send in its
                    Spetsnaz commandos, and KGB's elite Alpha assault
team.

                    These forces are adequate for lightening raids, but
not for
                    large-scale, sustained operations inside
Afghanistan, even
                    against Taliban's ragtag, lightly-armed, 30,000
tribal
                    warriors. A massive, Iraq-style bombing campaign is
                    unlikely: medieval, famine-stricken Afghanistan
offers few
                    military targets. Bin Laden's lair, and Taliban HQ's
in Kabul,
                    Jalalabad, and Kandahar will be the main targets for
air and
                    ground assaults.

                    But locating bin Laden will be difficult; capturing
him, far
                    harder. Afghanistan's mountains are wild and jagged.
                    Frequent dust storms pose major dangers to
helicopter
                    operations. Inserting helicopter-born troops into a
narrow
                    valley is perilous, particularly if enemy forces
control the
                    high ground and can fire down at the aircraft with
heavy
                    machine guns and RPG anti-tank rockets. This writer
saw
                    heavily armored Soviet HIND helicopter gunships
                    destroyed in this manner during the 1980's war.

                    If bin Laden can be located but not snatched, the US
could
                    attack him with still secret bombs that can
penetrate up to
                    30 meters of rock and earth and/or deadly fuel air
                    explosives(FAE). These `mini-A bombs' release an
aerosol
                    of vaporized gasoline over a large area, then
detonate. The
                    result is huge, lethal overpressure that ruptures
the lungs
                    and other internal organs of anyone below, even
those
                    sheltered in bunkers, caves, or basements of
concrete
                    buildings. The Russians make extensive use of FAE's
                    against Chechen independence fighters and civilians.

                    Failure to swiftly kill or capture bin Laden has his
few
                    hundred armed supporters means the US may have to
                    deploy many more troops in Afghanistan - likely from
the
                    82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions -and hunt for the
                    elusive militant. Sweep operations seeking the
Scarlet
                    Pimpernel of the Hind Kush would expose American
                    soldiers to clashes with Afghan fighters, accidents,
and the
                    10 million or more mines left behind by the Soviets.
The US
                    could quickly get bogged down in a chaotic, lethal
Beirut
                    or Somalia-like situation where it is impossible to
tell friend
                    from foe.

                    Washington clearly intends to put the Northern
Alliance
                    into power. But this unsavory collection of ethnic
Tajiks
                    and Uzbeks cannot hope to rule over Afghanistan's
                    majority Pakhtuns. The last time a Tajik-led
government
                    held Kabul in 1994-5, it refused to share power. The
result
                    was civil war. The Northern Alliance may have to
rely for
                    survival on the bayonets of US and British troops.

                    Taliban's Pashtuns say they will take to the hills
and wage
                    guerrilla war against the Alliance, which is widely
viewed in
                    Afghanistan as a creature of the Russians and
Americans.
                    Déjà vu. In 1983, US Marines were sent to Beirut to
prop up
                    a minority regime in the midst of civil war.
Hundreds of US
                    Marines died.

                    Traditional warfare in Afghanistan involves bribing
tribal
                    leaders to switch sides. This is how Taliban got
into power.
                    US threats and money may induce some Pashtun tribes
to
                    ditch Taliban and, if the US is very lucky, hand
over bin
                    Laden, dead or alive. Pakistan's intelligence
agency, ISI,
                    could play a key role in getting tribes to abandon
Taliban,
                    though its level of cooperation with America's war
remains
                    in question.

                    War always has unpredictable consequences. Once
                    combat begins, the best laid plans go awry. The US
must
                    strike quickly and decisively, or risk getting
bogged down
                    in an aimless war in one of the world' least
accessible
                    nations whose reputation as graveyard of invaders is
well
                    and richly deserved.


                                  Copyright: Eric S. Margolis 2001



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


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