[iwar] [fc:Stratfor.situation.alert]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-22 06:29:28


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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2001 06:29:28 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Stratfor.situation.alert]
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Situation Reports

October 19, 2001

The Taliban has reportedly attacked the Afghan offices of the Swedish
Committee for Afghanistan, a charity group that operates clinics and
schools and helps farmers grow crops in rural Afghanistan.  The offices
were looted and local staff was beaten before the Taliban forced the
offices to close, The Washington Post reported.  2113 GMT, 011019

India and Russia have declared they oppose the idea of any element of
the Taliban being involved in a future Afghan government.  The two
countries came to this conclusion after a two-day summit on the future
of Afghanistan, the Times of India reported.  Iran and India had earlier
come to a similar conclusion.  2105 GMT, 011019

The Taliban is reportedly planning to propose a new cease-fire plan to
end the strikes on Afghanistan, with a Taliban envoy to deliver the plan
to Pakistani officials, BBC reported.  2010 GMT, 011019

Following the killing of the Israeli tourism minister Oct.  17, Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon reportedly said Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat has "has seven days to impose absolute quiet in the territories. 
If not, we will go to war against him," the U.K Times reported.  2000
GMT, 011019

Pakistan has turned over a third airbase, Dalbandin, outside Quetta, to
the United States for use in actions against Afghanistan, the Times of
India reported.  The base is located less than 100 miles from Kandahar,
the spiritual capital of the Taliban and a suspected hiding place of
Osama bin Laden.1955 GMT, 011019

U.S.  defense officials said Oct.  19 that Special Forces have begun the
ground phase of in Afghanistan, operating in small numbers in the
southern part of the country, the Washington Post reported.  "Their
basic purpose will not be to seize anything, but to conduct hit-and-run
operations, pinpoint installations, smoke out terrorists," a Pakistani
military source told AP.  1945 GMT, 011019

October 18, 2001

Tahirul Qadri, who heads the Pakistani Awami Tehrik Party, has denounced
Osama bin Laden and pleaded with the Taliban not to risk thousands of
lives to protect him.  Qadri also urged Muslims around the world see the
difference between jihad and acts of terrorism, and said he held the
Taliban responsible for the deaths of any Afghans in the U.S.  led
bombing campaign.  2126 GMT, 011018

U.S.  and British embassies in Bosnia have closed, in addition to the
U.S.  Embassy in Sarajevo, U.S.  government offices in the smaller
cities of Banja Luka and Mostar and the Bosnian offices of the U.S. 
Agency for International Development.  A British Embassy official said,
"The threats appear to be connected with the current military operation
in Afghanistan," The Los Angeles Times reported.  2034 GMT, 011018

French special forces may take part in ground operations with the United
States in Afghanistan.  French Defense Minster Alain Richard said his
country was in the "planning phase" with the U.S.  military, and said
there was n limit to what role France could play, the AP reported.  2025
GMT, 011018

The Taliban has reportedly launched a major counteroffensive near
Mazar-i-Sharif, bringing tanks and artillery to fight the lightly-armed
opposition fighters.  The fighting has been fierce and the Northern
Alliance has reportedly lost ground to the larger and better-equipped
Taliban force.  The Washington Post also reported that the Northern
Alliance has asked the United States to renew the bombing of Taliban
positions around the city in an attempt to regain lost ground.  1948
GMT, 011018


The head of Palestinian group Tanzim's military wing, Atef Abayat, was
reportedly killed today when his car exploded.  Abayat was wanted by
Israel for his participation in an assassination that took place last
month.  Although it has not been confirmed, an Israeli helicopter was
reportedly in the area when the explosion occurred, leading to
speculation the attack was in retaliation for the killing of Israel's
tourism minister yesterday.  1931 GMT, 011018

Four followers of Osama bin Laden were sentenced to life without parole
Oct.  18 for their roles in the 1998 bombings of two U.S.  embassies in
East Africa, Reuters reported.  Security was tightened around the New
York courthouse, just blocks from the site of the World Trade Center
attack.  1900 GMT, 011018

The Islamic Observation Center in London has reported that one of Osama
bin Laden's top lieutenants has been killed during the U.S.  bombing
campaign in Afghanistan.  The center reported that Abu Baseer al-Masr,
an Egyptian national, was killed by a bomb near Jalalabad last weekend. 
1800 GMT, 011018

Another 700 Taliban fighters have reportedly surrendered themselves to
the Northern Alliance near Mazar-i-Sharif.  The mass surrender or
defection took place on Oct.  16, where opposition forces are within two
kilometers of Mazar Sharif.  1830 GMT, 011018

U.S.  Special Forces have been placed aboard the USS Kitty Hawk in
anticipation of a possible ground attack against al Qaeda and Taliban
positions, Reuters reported.  A senior Pentagon official was quoted as
saying that helicopters and U.S.  troops trained to fight in harsh
conditions were aboard the carrier in the Indian Ocean.  1856 GMT,
011018

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