[iwar] [fc:Special.forces.are.'painting'.Afghan.targets.for.US.strikes]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-22 15:15:04


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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2001 15:15:04 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Special.forces.are.'painting'.Afghan.targets.for.US.strikes]
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                            22 October 2001
     Special forces are 'painting' Afghan targets for US strikes

                By Anthony Davis; Bagram; Afghanistan

 US aircraft began bombing Taliban frontline positions north of Kabul
on 21 October, apparently assisted by special forces personnel
operating from Bagram air base 'painting' targets with
laser-designators. New air strikes were launched the following day.

The 21 October strikes came during the afternoon and evening and
involved sorties by three and four US Navy fighters respectively,
according to opposition United Front (UF) military sources. The
aircraft hit Taliban and allied positions in Qala-e-Basir and
Gheir-e-Qol villages on the frontline opposite UF-held Bagram airbase
some 45km north of Kabul. An intelligence officer of the UF's 515
Brigade, based at Bagram, said 30 Taliban troops died in the afternoon
raid alone, adding that most were Pakistanis.

US special forces activity has apparently increased in northern
Afghanistan in recent days. One special forces team, believed to be an
intelligence liaison group, is presently based in the Panjshir Valley,
close to the Shomali plain and the frontlines north of Kabul. Another
group was last week operating with UF Uzbek leader Gen Abdul Rashid
Dostam in a UF-controlled pocket in northern Samangan province from
which opposition forces have been attacking Mazar-e Sharif city,
according to Gen Dostam, who spoke to JDW by telephone.

Major Taliban and allied concentrations, including several thousand
Arab, Pakistani and other foreign militants, are grouped along the
Shomali front north of Kabul; and in a wide defensive arc west of the
Kokcha River screening the northeastern town of Taloqan, which the UF
lost in September 2000.


                           22 October 2001
                  Heroin onslaught theory premature

 By Tamara Makarenko, Special Advisor on Transnational Crime, Jane's
                         Intelligence Review

 Shortly following the events of 11 September, the media in the UK and
US reported unconfirmed rumours that the Taliban had lifted their ban
on opium poppy production as a show of support for Osama bin Laden.
The conclusions drawn from this was that the West would soon be
flooded with cheap Afghan heroin – including a new liquid heroin
financed by Osama bin Laden, called the ‘Tears of Allah’.

Increased seizure rates on the Afghan-Iranian and Afghan-Tajik borders
have been cited as evidence that large shipments of opium and heroin
were being moved out of Afghanistan.

This assessment, however, is premature and is somewhat flawed, since
it is important to note that neither the Taliban nor al-Qaeda control
the majority of drug trafficking routes outside of Afghanistan. The
Taliban’s involvement in drugs has revolved around taxing the illicit
trade, while Al-Qaeda has access to a small number of routes as a
result of the organisation’s contacts with the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan and with Chechen militants.

Much of the drugs trade from Afghanistan is controlled by Afghan
traders and other criminal networks who smuggle Afghan drugs further
West. Because of this reality, it is very unlikely that the Western
market will be flooded by cheap heroin.

Large confiscation rates in countries surrounding Afghanistan, coupled
with evidence that the price of heroin has fallen significantly in the
region, can be explained by the fact that following the events of 11
September Afghan traders – expecting US reprisals – needed to move
their stockpiles for fear that they could be lost as a result of US
military action. A low profit margin is naturally preferred to
complete destruction.

Thus, the primary interest for criminal networks involved in the drugs
trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia is to find alternative locations
for opium and heroin stockpiles. Given that there is little indication
that large shipments of illicit narcotics are leaving Central Asia, it
appears as though alternative locations have been found. It may
subsequently be ascertained that the price of heroin and opium will
soon rise again.

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