[iwar] [fc:In.Afghan.Caves,.Suburbs.Of.New.Jersey,.Problem's.The.Same:.Where's.The.Enemy?]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-24 10:29:40
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2001 10:29:40 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] [fc:In.Afghan.Caves,.Suburbs.Of.New.Jersey,.Problem's.The.Same:.Where's.The.Enemy?]
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Wall Street Journal
October 24, 2001
In Afghan Caves, Suburbs Of New Jersey, Problem's The Same: Where's The Enemy?
By David S. Cloud and Neil King Jr., Staff Reporters Of The Wall Street
Journal
WASHINGTON -- President Bush has deployed all the resources the U.S.
government can muster to respond to the anthrax attack at home and crush the
terrorists in Afghanistan. But six weeks after Sept. 11, he still faces a
fundamental problem: Neither police here nor troops there can find the bad
guys.
The president frequently points out that this is a "different kind of war."
Much of what makes it different is that in this conflict, the enemy forces
have no country and fly no flag. Instead, they hide in Afghan caves and New
Jersey suburbs. Identifying them -- let alone finding them -- is proving
exceedingly difficult.
In Afghanistan, U.S. officials believe Mr. bin Laden and his core followers
have scattered into the rugged mountains along the border with Pakistan,
though they concede he could be almost anywhere in a country that is about
the size of Texas. Also possible, but less likely, is that the Saudi exile
has fled to similarly lawless territory in Pakistan or further afield in
Yemen or Somalia.
For all the firepower and high-tech spy gear U.S. forces have brought to
bear in Afghanistan, their mission's success ultimately depends on finding
Mr. bin Laden and his associates. And that, in turn, is likely to result not
from weaponry, but from a snitch or a chance bit of intelligence. Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said as much just before the bombing began,
telling reporters that the "determining factor" wouldn't be a cruise missile
or a bomber but "a scrap of information from some person."
The hunt for the perpetrator of the anthrax attacks is proving just as
tough. Federal Bureau of Investigation agents have traced several
anthrax-laced letters to a postal route in Trenton. But officials believe
the slow-developing nature of the attacks may have allowed the sender or
senders to flee, leaving behind little hard evidence about whether the
nation's first significant case of bioterrorism was planned by Mr. bin
Laden's network or another foreign enemy -- or even some home-grown
perpetrators inside the U.S.
On Tuesday, several officials said they believe Mr. bin Laden's al Qaeda
group is involved. House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D., Mo.) said
there is a growing consensus that the anthrax mailings are related to the
Sept. 11 attacks, while White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said, "There is
a suspicion that this is connected to international terrorists." None
suggested they had any proof, though.
Law-enforcement officials working on the anthrax investigation say they hope
that by blanketing the country with agents, they will get a break -- a home
laboratory, perhaps, where the anthrax spores were prepared, or maybe an
informant who can help crack the mystery. Otherwise, law-enforcement
officials say, the anthrax case shows signs of being a difficult,
time-consuming investigation.
The FBI, the Central Intelligence Agency and other agencies face intense
pressure to give Mr. Bush and his advisers an answer about who is behind the
anthrax attacks as soon as possible. If it turns out to be the work of a
foreign government, such as Iraq, the U.S. would be confronted with the
possibility of widening a war now focused on eradicating Mr. bin Laden and
the Taliban in Afghanistan. If the culprits are domestic terrorists with no
connection to Mr. bin Laden, it would require the administration to commit
extensive resources to separate, yet equally urgent, terrorism
investigations.
"I don't think the FBI has ever faced a national crisis like this, in which
there was such pressure to solve this quickly," said Larry Torrance, the
former deputy chief of the FBI's national-security division.
Officials have said the anthrax attacks in New York, Washington and Florida
involve a strain of the bacterium that is found commonly inside the U.S.,
and that shows no signs of having been genetically altered. Experts in
biological weaponry say that could make it almost impossible to trace its
exact source using scientific methods, unless there are genetic markers --
slight variations in the strain's gene structure -- that have been seen and
catalogued before.
Some FBI officials were concerned before Sept. 11 that the agency wasn't
adequately equipped to investigate biological-terrorism attacks. Randall
Murch, an FBI lab official now detailed to the Pentagon, warned in a paper
released in January that the bureau and other federal agencies lacked
adequate lab resources and expertise to quickly identify and trace the
source of biological agents after an attack.
"This nation will ... demand the rapid and accurate identification of the
cause, the means and those involved," Dr. Murch said. "We are still a long
way from having the needed forensics capabilities and resources." The
biggest deficiency, he said, was the lack of a database capable of allowing
the FBI to quickly trace strains of biological agents to their possible
source.
Law-enforcement officials are withholding most details about the anthrax
strain, including what type it is. Without some kind of genetic signature to
the bacteria, experts say, the investigation likely will hinge on
old-fashioned detective work. It took the agency 17 years to arrest
Unabomber Theodore Kaczynski. It wasn't until two years after the 1996
bombing during the Atlanta Olympics that federal officials charged
antiabortion extremist Eric Rudolph with that crime. The FBI gained a full
understanding of the Oklahoma City bombing case within months, but the
agency started out with key bits of forensic evidence.
Meanwhile, the military campaign in some ways looks increasingly
traditional. U.S. bombers now are targeting the Taliban front lines outside
Kabul in an effort to tilt the balance toward Northern Alliance rebels.
Officials at the Pentagon talk of helping the rebels seize key cities in the
north and possibly moving on the capital.
But at its heart, the war still is focused on wiping out the country's
terrorist base, and that means tracking down Mr. bin Laden's organization
and the top brass of the ruling Taliban. Official support for anti-Taliban
rebels, Bush aides say, is but another prong in the larger manhunt.
Current and former U.S. intelligence officials believe Mr. bin Laden and his
few hundred close followers who stayed behind in Afghanistan scattered into
the countryside either before or just after the bombing campaign began. One
U.S. official said there were indications Mr. bin Laden has scrapped his
usual convoy of trucks and Land Cruisers in favor of horses and mules, and
now changes his location every night, moving either between safe houses or
from cave to cave in the Hindu Kush mountains.
From Panama in 1989 to Somalia four years later, the U.S. has a spotty track
record when it comes to military efforts to nab individuals. It took the
U.S. five days and 23,0000 troops to apprehend Manuel Noriega in Panama
City. In Somalia, U.S. Army Rangers lost 18 men and still failed in a
monthlong effort to grab Gen. Mohammed Farah Aidid in a single congested
neighborhood of Mogadishu.
This time, the U.S. has deployed an unprecedented amount of state-of-the-art
spying technology in and around Afghanistan, much of it for the express
purpose of pinpointing Mr. bin Laden and his followers in 250,000 square
miles of desert, rugged mountains and teeming cities such as Kabul and
Kandahar. But few expect cameras or sensors will find Mr. bin Laden.
The U.S. Air Force and the CIA have sent aloft over Afghanistan a squadron
of some two dozen high-tech drones -- the Air Force's Predators and the
CIA's Gnat -- to provide detailed and continuous footage of individuals and
possible hiding places on the ground. Much higher up, the U.S. is also
relying on a fleet of spy satellites capable of taking high-definition
images of the countryside, including cameras that can detect objects only a
few inches in size.
Yet all of this technology has its drawbacks, leading many officials back to
their hope that the real break will probably come from informants. Both the
CIA and the State Department are offering money to anyone who comes forward
with information. Others suggest the break could come through interrogating
captured Taliban officials or bin Laden operatives. As one administration
official put it, "One good turncoat could make all the difference."

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