Re: [iwar] How big is Al Queda?

From: Tony Bartoletti (azb@llnl.gov)
Date: 2001-10-24 11:30:20


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From: Tony Bartoletti <azb@llnl.gov>
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Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2001 11:30:20 -0700
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Subject: Re: [iwar] How big is Al Queda?
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At 07:35 PM 10/23/01 -0700, you wrote:
>Guestimates...
>
>Total trained in their camps over the last so many years is about 20,000
>Assume distributed as leaders of cells, means that the US probably has
>from a few hundred to a thousand cells.  Proportional in EU other nations.

To borrow the title of the seminal book on fractals:

         "How Long is the Coast of Britain?"

It would be helpful to attempt to define the parameters of "al Qaeda" for 
such purposes.

An analogy:

   How big is Harvard?  Is it the number of students that have received 
diplomas?  Is it the number of graduates who have entered the teaching 
profession?  Or is it the number of dedicated trainers and logistics 
personnel who support them?

To the case in point:

   Are all/most of the "al Qaeda graduates" intended or expected to be 
cell-leaders?  Or, simply proficient in certain tactics when under the 
guidance of a less numerous cadre of cell leaders?

____tony____


Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881 <azb@llnl.gov>
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900





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