[iwar] [fc:Mullah.Omar.Says.War.Yet.To.Begin]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-29 07:09:20
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 07:09:20 -0800 (PST)
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October 29, 2001
v.5.7

Mullah Omar Says War Yet To Begin

The Times of India reports Mullah Omar told an Algerian newspaper that 


  a.. the real war was yet to begin
  b.. the Americans would be taught a worse lesson than the Soviets
  c.. there was no dissension within the Taliban
  d.. anyone collaborating with the Americans would be sentenced to death
  e.. he has not lost any member of his family
  f.. the US has not killed any Taliban leader
  g.. the US action is not against Bin Ladin, but against Muslims
[Mullah Omar and the Pentagon can at least agree on one point: the real war is yet 
to begin. Editor]


Gunmen Kill 18 At Pakistan Church 

Four gunmen armed with AK-47s killed four children under 12, four women, 8 men, 
and a policeman guarding St. Dominic's Church at Bhawalpur, during services. Media 
sources say the attack is believed linked to anger in Pakistan at the US attack on 
Afghanistan. Others reports say 17 were killed including two children. 

While Iran has strongly condemned the outrage, a Taliban spokesman refused to comment 
when questioned by IRNA, saying it was an internal matter of Pakistan's. 


Russian General Sees No Refugee Influx Into Tajikistan

IRNA-ITAR-Tass report that the chief of the Russian Border Guards says he expects 
no influx of Afghan refugees into Tajikistan as the refugees prefer to flee to Pakistan 
or Iran. He said he was unconcerned about reports of Taliban fighters appearing near 
the Tajik border. He said the Taliban troops prefer to stay as close as possible 
to Northern Alliance front lines to escape US bombing. [In the Vietnam War communist 
troops adopted the same strategy, seeking to close in with US infantry as quickly 
as possible, both to protect themselves against US airstrikes and artillery, and 
to even the score on the ground as they usually outgunned the US infantry. Sometimes 
the strategy worked. In Afghanistan, with bombing having become more precise by a 
factor of 10-100, it may not be as successful. Ed.] 


Air Campaign

AP reports Taliban sources as saying three British and two American Muslims who 
had come to fight for the Taliban were killed on Wednesday by US bombing. 

The BBC reports that attacks were carried out against Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, 
Mazar-I-Sharif, and Heart. [While would seem there is nothing left to bomb in those 
cities, our information is that the US is bombing Taliban munitions and supply storage 
areas, and many of these are in the cities. Ed.] 

Because of the stepped-up bombing, and because civilians are everywhere over the 
front lines and around military areas, the civilian casualty toll is rising. This 
is quite apart from losses announced by the Taliban, generally not verifiable. Secretary 
Rumsfeld has accused Al-Jazzera of conducting propaganda for the Taliban. He says 
the Taliban are getting together women and children to weep and wail where a bomb 
hits and Al-Jazzera films the episode. While the US media is full of reports of civilian 
casualties and grave pronouncements of how much trouble this is going to cause, the 
US administration is completely unmoved and has given no indication it is interested 
in what the US media or anyone has to say on the subject. 

The US plans to continue attacks over Ramadan. 

For the first time US aircraft attacked Taliban targets near the Tajikistan border, 
opening a new front. 

The Washington Post reports an opposition commander as saying US bombing of a Taliban 
convoy on the Bagram front killed 400 fighters. If this is true, this is possibly 
the worst setback for the Taliban since the campaign began. 

B-1s and B-52s are now being routinely used on the Bagram front. Eyewitnesses say 
US aircraft are flying lower, and Taliban return fore is becoming more sporadic. 


US sources say the bombing is working: Taliban forces are being forced into the 
open, from where they can be killed more efficiently. 


Pakistan Internal Security 

A bomb on a bus killed three and wounded several others in Quetta. [While incidents 
of internal terrorism are getting much play in the western media, most of which seems 
to be underemployed while on station in the theatre, we caution our readers not to 
read over much into these incidents. At the best of times, in the last two decades, 
Pakistan has become a violent place. Ed.] 

The Taliban have said they will not stop Pakistan jehadis from crossing into Afghanistan, 
the time was not correct for foreign Muslims to join the crusade as the ground war 
had not begun, and as the Americans were dropping bombs. He also said the bombing 
had made no impact on the Taliban. Neither he nor the media person writing the story 
appear to see any contradiction between the two statements. 

A demonstration in Quetta was peaceful. NBC-TV told its viewers that, nonetheless, 
the anger and fury of the crowd was obvious and that President Musharraf was coming 
under great pressure because of Pakistani anger against US bombing. 


The Media: A Signed Comment By Ravi Rikhye, Editor

The Washington Post reports that US officials have begun to admit to themselves 
what they have been saying in public, that the Afghan War is going to be a long, 
drawn-out affair. The Post sees no irony in this pronouncement. Secretary Powell 
has on occasion made optimistic statements about the war ending soon, but almost 
without exception, US officials have been warning of an extended war. We feel the 
Post should rephrase its words and say instead that the Washington Post has realized 
US officials were right when they said this would be a long war. 

In its Sunday edition, the Post devotes its usual acres of newsprint to tell us 
how everything is going wrong for the US. We have a simple question. Since the US 
has not told the Post, or anyone else for that matter, what its strategy is, how 
does the Post conclude everything is going wrong? 

In its story, the Post quoted Pakistan's ISI as saying, in effect, that the US has 
failed. We find interesting that the Post would put any credence in anything the 
ISI has to say, considering the agency has a stake in US failure, and from many accounts 
is doing its best to undermine the US. When writing about the drug war, for example, 
we don't recall the Post quoting the Cali Cartel as a corroborating source when discussing 
US failures in that war. 

We also find it of interest that after blasting Washington, buried at the end of 
a long story the Post reports an opposition leader as saying 400 Taliban were killed 
by a US attack on a convoy. To put this news at the top would have undermined the 
tenor of the story. The Post couldn't very well ignore the opposition Afghan report, 
so it seems to us it used a not particularly clever or ethical tactic to minimize 
its impact. 

We will have occasion to say this again: the US media is going berserk because Washington 
is releasing no information and making no claims of success. The US style of reportage 
is to take whatever someone they don't like says and rip it to shreds in an orgy 
of minute dissection. During the Monica Lewinsky affair the US media lost its already 
waning credibility with the public because of its style of reportage. Domestically, 
it is again turning off the public by repeating itself endlessly on the anthrax story. 
As a former part-time journalist for twenty years, I believe I have the right to 
offer the Post a little advice. 

The American people have decided to put their faith in the government. As long as 
their government does not lie to them, they completely accept the government's assertion 
that it cannot, and will not, divulge anything of significance about ongoing operations, 
strategy, tactics, results etc. In Vietnam, the government made the mistake of lying, 
and lying all the time. When the press uncovered those lies, it became a hero to 
the American people. In Afghanistan, the US government is avoiding the trap by not 
saying anything at all - it is absolutely refusing any claim of success, except its 
generic one of having degraded Taliban infrastructure, and it is steadfastly refusing 
to explain its failures. 

In such an environment, by continuing your hostile analysis, which is based on no 
facts, only suppositions, you are risking your credibility. You cannot put yourself 
above the American people by claiming to represent the people's right to know. The 
people have said they'd love to know, but are satisfied, in the interest of security, 
not to be told at this time. Listen to the people, and stop spinning nothing out 
of nothing. 


October 28, 2001
v.5.6


Air Campaign

Allegedly, fierce attacks are being made against the Taliban, the heaviest so far 
according to an opposition leader. Kabul is said to have also been subjected to the 
heaviest strikes seen so far. 

Each day it seems less real information is available. 

The BBC says Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Bagram, Dara-i-Souf, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Tagab 
were attacked. The last four are front-line targets. CNN says that Kandahar enjoyed 
a respite on Friday/Saturday night. Those that remained were "suspicious of the quiet 
night". 
At Bagram the focus appeared to be the Taliban-held hills surrounding the base. 
A report says that 1,000 sorties have now been flown against the Taliban. This is 
definitely a big increase from just a week ago, but still indicates a relatively 
low level effort. AFP speaks of at least 13 bombs being dropped, including 10 on 
the surrounding hills. Opposition sources speak of at least 25 attacks in five waves. 


Iranian sources say aircraft and cruise missiles heavily bombed Herat. 

A USS Vinson pilot said on NBC-TV that enemy fire was light and including "a couple" 
of shoulder-fired SAMs. Another report speaks of Taliban AA-gun trucks driving around 
firing "bright red" bursts at US aircraft. 

Eight tons of bombs were dropped Friday on the Red Cross compound. The US blames 
"Human targeting error". A Red Cross spokesperson says the buildings were clearly 
marked. As far as we know, B-52 bombers - the aircraft responsible for the strike 
- do not zip around the target slow and low to identify it before releasing their 
weapons. Coordinates for the bombs are programmed before the aircraft takes off; 
presumably, coordinates can now days be changed in transit; and the aircraft releases 
its bombs from as high as 30,000 feet, without necessarily have much idea of what 
it is aiming for. Whatever the cause of the attack, we are left with the thought 
that there is now that much less food for the Taliban to steal, and that much sooner 
the remaining population of Kabul will have to evacuate the city. The Red Cross says 
it was unable to distribute food on Saturday due to the bombing. Interestingly, only 
one person was injured in the attack, which wiped out all but one of the warehouses. 
We must be thankful for the sheer chance the warehouses were apparently empty of 
people. 

A report says B-1/B-52 strikes were used against Taliban targets. 


Alliance Loses Ground At Mazar-i-Sharif; Claims Major Gains in Herat Province

NA sources say they have been pushed back even further by the Taliban forces at 
Mazar-I-Sharif. A sandstorm prevented fighting on Saturday. General Dostum, however, 
says he has advanced and taken 80 prisoners. 

IRNA reports that a United Front spokesman told it that nine districts have been 
cleared of Taliban occupation in Heart Province. From our viewpoint, two points in 
the spokesman's claim are baffling. He said the UF operation began on Friday and 
it seems unlikely so large an area was freed in so short a time. He also claimed 
40 prisoners, rather insignificant number for the size of the liberated areas. IRNA 
says political commentators are of the opinion that with its three sponsors having 
tuned their back on it, the Taliban can not long survive in Western Afghanistan. 
The sponsors were Saudi Arabia for cash, Pakistan for training, advisors, and troops, 
and the US for political support. 


Pakistan Internal Security

Pakistan authorities say they have turned back some 800 of the 5,000 tribesmen trying 
to cross over from Bajur into Afghanistan and the rest are milling around trying 
to force the issue or trying to sneak across in small groups of 20-30. 

Different sources speak of 100 or 400 vehicles bringing volunteers to the area. 
The Daily Jang says people from the area report there was no government security 
on the route to the border, indicating the authorities do not intend to prevent the 
crossing. 

None of our sources has yet told us what the US reaction will be if Pakistan fails 
to stop the crossing. We also learn no practical details from the Pakistan side as 
to how these volunteers plan to reach the Taliban if the US elects to bomb them, 
how they will be fed, how they will be organized, and how they will be resupplied. 
It seems to us these matters are urgent considering the cold weather is setting in 
and winter is just a few weeks away. If we wanted to be cynical, we could assume 
in all likelihood the volunteers will head home after the first snows, having "fought" 
the American infidels, and that the Taliban will be relieved to see them return. 


Sources speak of a possible 100,000 Pakistan fighters who could reinforce the Taliban. 


The Pakistan Government moved to reopen the Karakoram Highway, which has been blocked 
by local tribesmen since the start of the US bombing. Local officials say they are 
trying to avoid using might. Tribal leaders are calling for a jihad against the Pakistani 
President. On Friday, a 3,000-person demonstration took place in Quetta. 

Fundamentalist groups have given the Pakistan Government ten days in which to end 
its support of the United States. 


Musings On The Media: The Abdul Huq Affair

This being a slow news Saturday night, we carry below part of an article by Chidanad 
Rajghata in the Times of India. It has been edited according to the whims of MS Word 
2000. 


  The botched mission of Hollywood Haq 

  It is a scene straight out of Tom Clancy and Harrison Ford's Clear and Present 
Danger.

  US intelligence agencies back a covert operation in Afghanistan. The operative 
is betrayed and is ambushed in Taliban territory. He radios for help. The CIA fails 
in a half-hearted attempt to rescue him. He is executed. There's confusion and finger 
pointing in Washington over a botched mission.

  The death of Peshawar-based Afghan leader Abdul Haq on Thursday at the hands of 
the Taliban had all the trappings of the pulp fiction-turned-film.

  A much-romanticized former mujahideen fighter nicknamed Hollywood Haq for his 
adventurous past, the Pashtun leader went into Afghanistan last weekend in a bid 
to stir up an uprising against the Taliban. 

  Wealthy American brothers James and Joe Ritchie, both based in Pakistan and having 
US intelligence connections, reportedly financed Haq's 19-member lightly armed expedition. 
But the CIA and other western agencies apparently declined to provide Haq with the 
arms and air support he asked for his mission. They offered him satellite telephones, 
which he already had. He turned down the offer suspecting they wanted to tap into 
his conversations.

  So he set off on a horse or a mule - he had lost a foot during the anti-Soviet 
war - with a group of camp followers armed with only a few rifles, phones and lots 
of dollars. Four days later, he found himself trapped on a steep mountain road, with 
the Taliban in front of him and the Taliban behind. He may have been betrayed. 

  According to reports in the US media, including two separate accounts in the New 
York Times, he had to shake off Pakistani intelligence operatives before he left 
for Afghanistan. One version has it that the Taliban spy network knew his every movement 
from the time he left Peshawar. The other has it that Afghan villagers who ratted 
to the Taliban exposed him.

  In any case, he desperately rang his nephew in Peshawar for help. The nephew called 
the Ritchies, who are originally businessmen from Illinois with long time Afghan 
and Pakistan connections. The Ritchies, in turn, contacted their friend Robert McFarlane, 
a former National Security Advisor in the Reagan administration, a cold warrior and 
a long time Pakistan supporter. McFarlane tapped into his contacts at the CIA. (Another 
version has it that the Ritchies contacted the Pakistanis, who contacted McFarlane, 
who rang the CIA). 
  The CIA quickly alerted the US CentCom, which is conducting the operations in 
Afghanistan, with the coordinates Haq had dictated over the satellite phone. Bombings 
were ordered using unmanned Predator drones to disperse the Taliban and try and secure 
a safe passage for Haq. But the Taliban militia was already on him.

  Some hours later, Haq's nephew's phone rang again. Only this time it was the Taliban. 
They had cornered and executed Haq. Some reports said he had been shot. Others said 
he had been hanged. Judging by what the Taliban did to former President Najibullah, 
they might have first shot him and them hanged him or vice versa.

  The Taliban were not done yet though. The next morning they announced they had 
executed five other men from Haq's group, including his nephew. They also said they 
were looking for an American who was in the group, and gave his name as "Jamber Jihi" 
- which sounded a bit like Ritchie, though neither of the Ritchie brothers is believed 
to have accompanied the mission. 

  In Washington, the abortive mission to subvert the Pashtun support for Taliban 
left officials and analysts crushed. In fact, the Bush administration almost completely 
disowned the operation, suggesting that it was a personal enterprise. The State Department 
however acknowledges it may have been in touch with Haq, but said to describe any 
rescue mission as a bungled operation would be "wildly speculative." 
Mr. Rajghata's version of the episode is colorful, but it clearly shows how the 
media is subject to misdirection. 

Either the US had a considerable investment in Mr. Huq or it did not. If it did, 
we find it odd that besides satellite phones the US offered him no other material 
aid. We also find it odd so many people had to be called for help - he would have 
had a straight line to his handlers. If the US did not have any investment in Mr. 
Haq, we find it odd that Washington should be reeling from the blow of the failure. 


The article is based on reports from the US media, so Mr. Rajghata is saying nothing 
that has not been widely reported. Taking the above facts, then, there is another 
possibility. 

The US had no particular investment in Abdul Huq, but at some point decided to have 
an operative accompany him. The fuss was about getting the operative out alive, and 
since he has not been captured, we may assume he was safely extracted. Americans 
being basically kind-hearted, we may assume they would have rescued Mr. Huq too had 
they been able to do so without unduly risking American lives. 

Two other things about the story do not add up. Satellite phones cost in the low 
thousands of dollars. Mr. Huq, with the resources of the centimillionaire Rithie 
brothers, would have had no need to discuss satellite phones with US intelligence. 
Further, the US can tap any satellite phone it wants, so getting its own phone into 
Mr. Huq's hands was not an issue. 

There are yet other possibilities. For example, the US had no more interest in Mr. 
Huq than a traveller on a dangerous road has in an other traveller: they have their 
own purposes, but may as well help each other as much as in each's interest. There 
was no US operative with Mr. Huq. The US is telling the media it is reeling from 
the setback because it is trying to misdirect everyone's attention for many possible 
reasons - our readers guesses are as good as ours, so we will not bother with more 
theories. 

Nonetheless, we find odd that in the entire Afghan campaign so far, the US has claimed 
no success other than the wholly conventional and expected one of suppressing the 
Taliban's air defense syhstems and command and control. Other than that, all we see 
is a chain of disasters: the Taliban have not been moved, no one has defected, the 
US military is enacting a Laurel and Hardy slapstick act by hitting civilian targets 
left and right, the big raid a week ago yielded no prisoners, just some intelligence 
information of doubtful utility, the allied coalition is becoming shakier day by 
day, the wrath of Muslims everywhere is rising against the US bombing, the winter 
is coming and the US will be unable to operate, etc. etc.

Either the US is incompetent to a dangerous degree, or the US government is quite 
successfully misdirecting the media. 

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