[iwar] The coming storm

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-12-23 08:02:48
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Sun, 23 Dec 2001 08:02:48 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [iwar] The coming storm
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Based on the information available from public media over the past

several months, it is my belief that the world is rapidly moving toward
war.  Not small police actions here and there, and not the 'war on
terror' we hear about on the news, but real war on a global scale.

To very briefly review the situation as it seems to me at this time:

China has internal strife and is funding client states and providing
them with weapons.  China is about to call in $B+ in debt from Israel
and has supported terrorists in the form of weapons in Afghanistan and
probably elsewhere.

Argentina is in serious political strife.  The recent changes in their
government and their inability to control the underlying pressures
against them make them rife for serious turmoil.

Russia is anxious to regain some of it's previous status and, while they
'support' the fight on terrorism, they do not really support the US at
all, are greatly embarrassed by the US success in Afghanistan. 

Several Arab states are near the brink of political disaster, while
others are already run by regimes who would gladly see the US out of the
region and have supported this for many years.  The situation between
these states and Israel and the recent increase in intensity of the
Palestinian/Israeli conflict has brought these governments to the point
where they may well support military conflict over continued US support
of the infidels.

Israel's spy network, which has recently gained much undesired
attention, is apparently aligned to sell information on a global scale
and has a history of gathering and providing it to Russia and China,
presumably, as a means to assure its survival against the advent of a
decaying of the relationships with the US.

India and Pakistan are moving toward war, with the massing of troops,
the recent 'attack' on the Indian Parliament, the longstanding strife
between them, and let us not forget the impact of fundamentalism in
Pakistan and its impact on the political situation there.  The US is
stuck in a position of having to favor Pakistan and be good friends with
China in order to have success in Afghanistan, making the US unlikely to
take India's side in such a conflict.

The Central American war on drugs transformed into the war on the FARC
was seemingly won - until the US seemingly forgot what it was doing in
Colombia and the FARC took over the ELN and started widening its girth
by creating more violence in neighboring countries.

Africa has been in imbalance for many years, with several barely stable
governments, some constantly teetering on the brink of collapse, and
with massive problems of drought, disease, and poor economic situations. 
The US and others throughout the world have chosen to continue to ignore
this situation.

And of course the US has now moved into economic recession, the current
administration has already predicted 2002 as a "War Year", and the
process of blaming it all on the last administration combined with its
utterly unfathomable foreign policy, make it rife for making war as the
only way to retain the power base of the government that installed
itself through the trickery of the equally unfathomable US legal system. 

The US decisions under Bush to cut back from a capability to handle two
simultaneous major conflicts (with lift capacity limiting the ability to
deploy simultaneously) to a one major conflict and one minor conflict
strategy, the publicly aired conflicts between Rumsfield and the DoD
general staff, the apparent disarray of the US policies on 'homeland
defense', and the seeming inability of the US to counter terrorism
within its own borders, the world either already does or soon will feel
as if the US cannot support its global domination and longer.

Of course the rest of the world no more wants the US to dominate it than
it wanted the British to dominate it during its short global supremacy
or the world wanted Rome to dominate it during the Roman dominance of
its part of the world.

In short, the rest period after WWII (if you call that rest) seems to be
leaving us.  Global disease, global water and other resource limits,
global climate change and pollution, and other global issues that need to
be faced within the next 10-50 years could be faced today, but they will
be ignored until crisis like so many vital items are ignored by the
short view of today's politics.  The seeming instability in the US has
been largely responsible for the testing of the waters by those who
would eliminate US global domination, and those tests have largely
proven successful, despite our our temporary seeming success in a ground
war in the Steppe.

While the US may seem to have a tactical win, the strategic losses are
staggering indeed.

- Loss of economic prosperity started during the end of the Clinton era
when Bush 'talked down' the economy and had gone from budget surplus to
deficit under Bush before the 9/11 attack.  Bush now predicts deficits
till the end of his Presidency and the $600 per family tax give-back and
massive interest rate cuts have utterly failed to change the economic
situation.

- Loss of the seeming invincibility of the North American continent to
foreign attack has opened the flood gates to attackers.  The government
has a vested interest in suppressing the details of attack attempts, and
thus the plane crash so soon after 9/11 will likely be investigated and
reported on in a similar fashion to the balloons launched by the Japanese
against the US mainland in WWII.  We will find out a lot more in 20 years
than we will today.

- Abandonment of India in favor of Pakistan for expedience has, in some
sense, spurned the most populous democracy in the world in favor of a
military dictatorship which teeters on the bring of takeover by Muslim
extremists.  India has long been friendly toward the US, but even they
will eventually be offended when their parliament gets attacked by gunmen
and the US doesn't say anything at all about it.

- Closer embracing of the corrupt House of Saud and its 'government'
with its leaderships' close financial ties to Bush Sr.  demonstrates to
the world, whether we choose to see it or not, that US money and power
are no different than the rest of the world.  The rich get richer and
the poor get poorer - and the US is demonstrating it.

- Loss of advantage in the Central American struggle against the FARC, if
you missed it, means that the terrorists of Central America are winning
as the US focuses its attention on Afghanistan.  Note the linkage of
drugs, money, intelligence, techniques, training, and methods between
the terrorists of Afghanistan and those of Central America and
elsewhere.  We may have cut them back in one place, but the weed grows
stronger somewhere else.

- Widely published government authenticated weakness of US critical
infrastructures has led to the global belief that these weaknesses are
exploitable and that they represent the corrupt and depraved failure of
the US system.  Money and the pursuit of profit over the well being of
the people is the battle cry and it rings true in may peoples' ears.

- Abandonment of African policy, at least as far as anyone can tell, is
leading to resentment in that region of the world.  The slim gains of
the Clinton administration in this area are probably all but lost by
now.

- Rapid loss of long-term economic strength in contrast to China and the
European Union is a very serious matter.  This means that the world no
longer sees the US as the engine that makes the world run.  Why bow down
to the US when China is closer, richer, and more powerful?

- The US inability or unwillingness to control Israel while allowing
them to spy on the US presents a lack of believability.  Is the US so
guided by dominance of the oil reserves in the Middle East that it will
befriend those who spy on it over those who rightfully own the land? OK
- this is perhaps a bit over the edge - but it is the view of many of
those in the region and it shows the US weakness.

- A government that had poor foreign relations until the WTC attack,
that reversed its stated policies in order to get elected (remember
states' rights versus the US Supreme court?), and has reversed so many
of its prior positions during its year in office that it has many of the
conservatives that elected it arrayed against it.

These have all contributed to the current situation and will contribute
to the willingness of the rest of the world to go to war.

FC
--This communication is confidential to the parties it is intended to serve--
Fred Cohen		Fred Cohen & Associates.........tel/fax:925-454-0171
fc@all.net		The University of New Haven.....http://www.unhca.com/
http://all.net/		Sandia National Laboratories....tel:925-294-2087


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