Return-Path: <sentto-279987-4255-1010556862-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Tue, 08 Jan 2002 22:16:08 -0800 (PST) Received: (qmail 3958 invoked by uid 510); 9 Jan 2002 06:14:42 -0000 Received: from n31.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.81) by all.net with SMTP; 9 Jan 2002 06:14:42 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-4255-1010556862-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [216.115.97.191] by n31.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 09 Jan 2002 06:14:22 -0000 X-Sender: fc@red.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_0_1_3); 9 Jan 2002 06:14:21 -0000 Received: (qmail 79647 invoked from network); 9 Jan 2002 06:14:21 -0000 Received: from unknown (216.115.97.172) by m5.grp.snv.yahoo.com with QMQP; 9 Jan 2002 06:14:21 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO red.all.net) (12.232.125.69) by mta2.grp.snv.yahoo.com with SMTP; 9 Jan 2002 06:14:20 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by red.all.net (8.11.2/8.11.2) id g096EvL29808 for iwar@onelist.com; Tue, 8 Jan 2002 22:14:57 -0800 Message-Id: <200201090614.g096EvL29808@red.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> X-Yahoo-Profile: fcallnet Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 22:14:57 -0800 (PST) Subject: [iwar] [fc:Arms.Seizure.Backfires,.Wounds.Israel] Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Arms Seizure Backfires, Wounds Israel 2120 GMT, 020108 Summary Israeli naval commandos seized a vessel loaded with arms in the Red Sea on Jan. 4. Israel claims the weapons came from Iran and were bound for the Palestinian territories. But the circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged after its seizure have raised questions about the entire incident and, more importantly, about Israel's credibility. Audiences in Europe and the United States now will be more likely to question other Israeli claims concerning Palestinians. Analysis In a daring nighttime raid on Jan. 4, Israeli commandos seized a vessel in international waters of the Red Sea that was carrying 50 tons of weapons, including Katyusha rockets, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, sniper rifles and mortar launchers. Israeli government officials said the next morning that the Palestinian Authority had purchased the weapons from Iran and was intending to smuggle them into the territories. The circumstances surrounding the shipment and details that emerged after its seizure have cast doubts on Israel's report of the incident, however. Both the Palestinian Authority and Tehran have denied any connection to the Karine A, and a report in a prestigious British shipping journal contradicts Israeli allegations regarding the vessel's ownership. Rather than validating Israel's claims of Palestinian duplicity, the incident has damaged Israel's credibility. Audiences in the West, especially in Europe and the United States, are now more likely to question other Israeli charges against the Palestinians. American and European distrust of Israeli allegations will give the Palestinian Authority more room to maneuver in the short term. PA leader Yasser Arafat can continue to argue that he wants peace and to cite Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's aggressive policies as the root cause of continuing violence in the Middle East. Israel had hoped to achieve a double whammy with the ship seizure. First, it sought to throw a wrench into peace talks. It aimed to ensure that the United States would not push Israel into negotiating a truce at a time when it has the upper hand with Arafat. Implicating Iran would advance yet another goal -- containment of the emerging Persian Gulf power. Immediately after announcing the capture of the vessel, Israel called on the European Union to declare Iran a state sponsor of terrorism. The United States already does so. But the seizure of the Karine A instead has mushroomed into a full-scale embarrassment for Israel. Several details undermine claims that the Palestinian Authority was directly involved in the purchase and smuggling of weapons. For example, the timing of the seizure provided a convenient means of thwarting progress toward peace talks during a four-day visit by U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni. Despite claims to the contrary, Zinni failed to achieve any real steps toward resuming peace talks. In fact, Sharon plans to re-evaluate Israel's relations with the Palestinian Authority, Haaretz reported Jan. 7. He has pointed to the vessel seizure to justify the move and to validate his labeling of Arafat as a terrorist unwilling to work toward peace. At the same time, logic argues against the idea that the Palestinian Authority was involved in the incident: The presence of Palestinian naval officers aboard the vessel, including one who later directly fingered two of Arafat's top lieutenants, limits plausible deniability. Though the Palestinian Authority does not govern a state, it nonetheless must behave as a government -- and governments engaged in covert or illegal operations usually act in a manner that allows plausible deniability. It would be either extremely stupid or sheerly lunatic for the Palestinians to think that a weapons-laden ship might transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal undetected at a time when both are under heightened surveillance. Furthermore, there are contradictory reports about the vessel's ownership. Israel claims Palestinians owned the ship, but Lloyd's List, a premier shipping publication owned by Lloyd's of London, reported Jan.7 that it was owned by an Iraqi national. According to Lloyd's, it was a Lebanese-flagged vessel operated by the Beirut-based Diana K. Shipping Co. and was sold in August 2001 to Ali Mohammed Abbas for $400,000. The ship was then re-registered in Tonga as the Karine A. Although a Lebanese Transport Ministry official has disputed the Lloyd's report, it lends credence to the Palestinian denials and countercharges that Israel manipulated the seizure to derail peace talks. Ultimately, it matters little whether the Israeli assertions are true. The many apparent discrepancies, the illogic of the idea that the Palestinian Authority would attempt such an operation and finally the Lloyd's List report have combined to cast doubt on the Israeli claims. Even the United States has failed to endorse Israel's version of events, The Jerusalem Post reported Jan. 8. As far as Israel is concerned, the best thing that can happen now is for the whole incident to blow over. Politicians and military leaders are all pointing fingers at each other, blaming everyone but themselves for what is seen as a public relations debacle. The internal debate, however, overlooks the larger issue: Israel's credibility has taken a blow, giving the Palestinians leverage in the short term. Now the Palestinian Authority can ask Europe and the United States to pressure Sharon to come to the negotiating table. More important, few will take future Israeli claims about Palestinian arms-smuggling at face value. Israel's burden of proof just got a lot heavier. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Tiny Wireless Camera under $80! Order Now! FREE VCR Commander! 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