[iwar] [fc:Whither.Intelligence:.Effects.of.11.September]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-05-18 18:24:11


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Date: Sat, 18 May 2002 18:24:11 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Whither.Intelligence:.Effects.of.11.September]
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Below may be of interest, these are prepared remarks for
a seminar in the UK on 12 June.  The recent discovery that we
had all the dots, but could not put them together, causes me
to release these points in advance of their presentation.
Robert David Steele, OSS.NET
=====================================================
Whither Intelligence: Effects of 11 September
Remarks of Mr. Robert David Steele, OSS.NET
Intelligence Services in the Modern World
Seminars St. Anthony's, Oxford

12 June 2002

	11 September was both a policy failure and an intelligence failure

	Policy failures included the side-lining of the first World Trade 
Center bombing as a local law enforcement case; the choice to ignore bin 
Laden's declaration of war and its manifestation in attacks on two 
embassies, a barracks, and a naval combatant vessel; as well as a general 
resistance to improved aviation security; and a lack of sensitivity to the 
need for taking citizen reports of suspicious activities more seriously.

	Intelligence failures included the failure of our technical 
capabilities (unsuitable) and our clandestine capabilities (non-existent); 
the lack of data entry from FBI field offices; the inability to translate 
internally and the refusal to translate externally all captured documents 
from the first WTC bombing as well as other vital exposures (e.g. 
Philippines); the absence of an all-source processing network; the absence 
of a global "plot" such as England devised for anti-submarine activities in 
WWII; and a rather passive and ignorant acceptance of liaison hand-outs 
without regard to liaison's involvement with terrorism (Saudi Arabia, 
Jordan, Pakistan) or acceptance of terrorism and terrorists on their soil 
(Sweden, Germany, France, inter alia).

	Terrorism is the least of our problems

	The world is at war, with 101 low-intensity conflicts and 175 
internal violent political conflicts90% of the casualties are civilians 
dying within their own homelands.

	Urgent non-traditional national security challenges include 20 
complex emergencies declared by the United Nations as well as 50 other 
emergency missions; millions of refugees and internally-displaced persons 
across 66 countries; modern plagues from AIDS to Ebola to malaria to 
tuberculosis across 59 countries and rising; food scarcity and related 
disease in 33 countries; and 18 active genocide campaigns, going on 
today.  Neither our schools, nor our media, nor our intelligence 
professionals are doing well as communicating these global realities to our 
publics.

	Globalization qua corporate carpet-bagging is liquidating the 
Earth.  George Soros has it right when he says that we cannot defeat 
terrorism without first defeating "the other axis of evil--poverty, 
disease, and ignorance."

	Billions of Arabs, Chinese, Indian, Muslim, and Russian elites and 
masses regard the United States of America as a threat to their current and 
future security &amp; prosperity.

	Intelligence is not impacting on public policy and public budgeting

	There are actually four distinct threat classes requiring national 
security policy and force structure, which is to say, funding.  These are 
the high-tech brute, or traditional state on state violent threat; the 
low-tech brute, or unconventional gang-based violent threat; the low-tech 
seer, or mass-based threat that is a largely non-violent and generally has 
very legitimate grievances; and the high-tech seer, a combination of 
state-based information warfare or electronic espionage, and individuals 
motivated to steal or destroy information for vengeance or profit.

	The existing USA budget--and to a lesser but similar extent, the UK 
and other Western budgets--spend roughly 10 times more money on the first 
threat than on the other three threats combined.  In the USA we spend $400B 
a year on military hard power; $30B a year on hard target intelligence, 85% 
of that for technical collection that we generally do not process; $20B a 
year on diplomacy and foreign aid; and roughly $10B a year on critical 
infrastructure protection and internal counterintelligence, most of it 
grossly ineffective and largely a sham.

	We do not create public intelligence estimates and public 
intelligence warnings suitable for inspiring a true national discussion and 
the establishment of national consensus on how the public budget should be 
authorized, allocated, and obligated.

	The New Craft of Intelligence posits a potential solution

	The New Craft of Intelligence seeks to restore balance to the 
traditional craft of intelligence, shifting away from excessive collection 
toward improved processing; away from the theft of secrets as the raison 
d'être and toward the provision of responsive decision support regardless 
of source; away from a small group of secret government bureaucracies and 
toward a larger conception of a "virtual intelligence community" that 
harnesses the distributed intelligence of each Nation, creating "Smart 
Nations;" and also creating a global architecture for sharing the time, 
cost, language, and knowledge burden of doing near-real-time estimative and 
warning, crisis, and action or opportunity intelligence across all topics 
relevant to national security and prosperity.

	The New Craft of Intelligence posits four quadrants--first, the 
lessons of history in multiple languages; second, a web-based means of 
creating a multi-lateral information commons for global coverage; third, a 
web-based means of migrating the proven process of intelligence to local 
government as well as non-governmental organizations; and fourth, a more 
focused approach to utilizing spies and secrecy, largely within the rule of 
law and within multilateral operations of governments against gangs instead 
of governments against one another.  There are 26 new rules for the new 
craft, and I commend them to your attention.

	Intelligence reform will be much harder than anyone imagines

	Bureaucracies are bad.  Secret bureaucracies are worse.  Secret 
bureaucracies with billions of dollars and a purported "crisis" are worse 
yet.  Worst of all, however, are secret bureaucracies with too much money 
and mediocre managers with a Cold War mind-set, each rather loosely 
educated about the real world.  Present company excepted...

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