[iwar] [fc:'Sum.of.all.fears':.The.nonfiction.version]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-06-12 05:53:59


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Date: Wed, 12 Jun 2002 05:53:59 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:'Sum.of.all.fears':.The.nonfiction.version]
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Geostrategy-Direct
June 18, 2002
 
NUKES ON THE BLACK MARKET 
 

         'Sum of all fears': The nonfiction version 

 
    The new film "Sum of all fears" is based on the Tom Clancy novel in
which a neo-Nazi organization buys a newly-uncovered nuclear weapon that
had been lost when an Israeli jet carrying it was shot down over Syria
in 1973. 
    A similar subtext underlies the ongoing dispute between Iran and
Russia over Teheran's nuclear program. 

         Officials said the dispute is now focused on a Russian
assertion that Iran has already obtained nuclear weapons.  Iran, which
has ordered an $800 million nuclear reactor from Russia, has publicly
denied the claim. 
         Western diplomatic sources said the argument between Moscow and
Teheran highlights a long-standing issue over whether Iran actually
acquired nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union in the early
1990s.  The sources said the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies
had been trying to determine whether and how many Soviet-designed atomic
bombs were obtained by Iran through such sources as Kazakhstan and North
Korea. 

    In the early 1990s, a senior Russian military official confided to
retired U.S.  officials at a private conference in Washington, D.C. 
that tactical nuclear weapons were missing and presumed stolen from a
former Soviet bloc state.  A CIA official was present at the discussion
but did not realize at the time what he had heard. 
    On June 10, Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected the assertion by
Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Gen.  Yuri Baluyevsky that Teheran has
acquired nuclear weapons.  Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi said the
general was misinformed and that Teheran has developed a civilian rather
than a military nuclear program. 
    "The Russian general had not been aware of Iran's peaceful use of
nuclear activities when he made the remarks," Asefi was quoted by the
official Islamic Republic News Agency as saying. 
    Diplomatic sources said Iran had first pressed Baluyevsky to deny or
withdraw his assertion on Iranian nuclear weapons.  When that failed,
Teheran issued a denial. 
 
   Street-smart real estate secrets for Geostrategy-Direct subscribers
 
    On May 24, Baluyevsky told a news briefing in Moscow that Iran has
obtained nuclear weapons.  But he made it clear that these weapons were
tactical and were not supplied by Russia. 
    "Now, as to whether or not Iran has tested something like that. 
Iran does have nuclear weapons," Baluyevsky said.  "Of course, these are
non-strategic nuclear weapons.  I mean these are not ICBMs
[intercontinental ballistic missiles] with a range of more than 5,500
kilometers and more.  But as a military man, I see no danger of
aggression against Russia by Iran."
    The Iranian-Russian dispute was the second in as many months
regarding Teheran's nuclear program.  Last month, diplomatic sources
reported that Iran had rejected a Russian proposal for more intrusive
International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at the Bushehr nuclear
reactor, expected to be completed in 2005. 
    Iran is said to have accelerated its efforts to obtain both nuclear
and missile components.  Diplomatic sources said Iranian agents are
completing deals in Eastern Europe in such countries as Belarus and the
Ukraine for equipment to test missile systems. 
    The Iranian-Russian dispute comes amid increased U.S.  pressure on
Moscow to halt aid to Teheran's missile and weapons of mass destruction
programs.  On June 10, Undersecretary of State John Bolton told an
American Jewish organization that U.S.-Russian ties are linked to a halt
in the transfer of Russian WMD technology to Iran. 


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