Return-Path: <sentto-279987-5143-1028819778-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com>
Delivered-To: fc@all.net
Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Thu, 08 Aug 2002 08:18:07 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (qmail 24168 invoked by uid 510); 8 Aug 2002 15:15:01 -0000
Received: from n14.grp.scd.yahoo.com (66.218.66.69) by all.net with SMTP; 8 Aug 2002 15:15:01 -0000
X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-5143-1028819778-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com
Received: from [66.218.67.196] by n14.grp.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 08 Aug 2002 15:16:18 -0000
X-Sender: fc@red.all.net
X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com
Received: (EGP: mail-8_0_7_4); 8 Aug 2002 15:16:18 -0000
Received: (qmail 60181 invoked from network); 8 Aug 2002 15:16:18 -0000
Received: from unknown (66.218.66.217) by m3.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 8 Aug 2002 15:16:18 -0000
Received: from unknown (HELO red.all.net) (12.232.72.152) by mta2.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 8 Aug 2002 15:16:18 -0000
Received: (from fc@localhost) by red.all.net (8.11.2/8.11.2) id g78FGah17789 for iwar@onelist.com; Thu, 8 Aug 2002 08:16:36 -0700
Message-Id: <200208081516.g78FGah17789@red.all.net>
To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List)
Organization: I'm not allowed to say
X-Mailer: don't even ask
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
X-Yahoo-Profile: fcallnet
Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com
Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com
Precedence: bulk
List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2002 08:16:36 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Taking.Saudi.Out.of.Arabia]
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
X-Spam-Status: No, hits=0.0 required=5.0 tests=DIFFERENT_REPLY_TO version=2.20
X-Spam-Level:
Laurent Murawiec's 24-slide presentation to the Defense Policy Board was
obtained by Slate and is presented here in type-treatment that approximates
the original.
Taking Saudi Out of Arabia
Laurent Murawiec
RAND
Defense Policy Board
July 10, 2002
1
Taking Saudi out of Arabia:
Contents
* The Arab Crisis
* "Saudi" Arabia
* Strategies
2
The Arab Crisis
3
The systemic crisis of the Arab
World
* The Arab world has been in a systemic crisis for the last 200 years
* It missed out on the industrial revolution, it is missing out on the
digital revolution
* Lack of inner resources to cope with modern world
4
Shattered Arab self-esteem
* Shattered self-esteem
* Could God be wrong?
* Turn the rage against those who contradict God: the West, object of
hatred
* A whole generation of violently anti-Western, anti-American, anti-modern
shock-troops
5
What has the Arab world
produced?
* Since independence, wars have been the principal output of the Arab
world
* Demographic and economic problems made intractable by failure to
establish stable polities aiming at prosperity
* All Arab states are either failing states or threatened to fail
6
The Crisis of the Arab world
reaches a climax
* The tension between the Arab world and the modern world has reached a
climax
* The Arab world's home-made problems overwhelm its ability to cope
* The crisis is consequently being exported to the rest of the world
7
How does change occur in the
Arab world?
* There is no agora, no public space for debating ideas, interests,
policies
* The tribal group in power blocks all avenues of change, represses all
advocates of change
* Plot, riot, murder, coup are the only available means to bring about
political change
8
The continuation of politics by other
means?
* In the Arab world, violence is not a continuation of politics by other
means -- violence is politics, politics is violence
* This culture of violence is the prime enabler of terrorism
* Terror as an accepted, legitimate means of carrying out politics, has been
incubated for 30 years ...
9
The crisis cannot be contained to the
Arab world alone
* The crisis has irreversibly spilled out of the region
* 9/11 was a symptom of the "overflow"
* The paroxysm is liable to last for several decades
* U.S. response will decisively influence the duration and outcome
10
"Saudi" Arabia
11
The old partnership
* Once upon a time, there was a partnership between the U.S. and Saudi
Arabia
* Partnerships, like alliances, are embodied in practices, ideas,
policies, institutions, people -- which persist after the alliance has died
12
"Saudi" Arabia
* An instable group: Since 1745, 58% of all rulers of the House of Saud
have met a violent demise
* Wahhabism loathes modernity, capitalism, human rights, religious
freedom, democracy, republics, an open society -- and practices the very
opposite
* As long as enmity had no or little consequences outside the kingdom, the
bargain between the House of Saud and the U.S. held
13
Means, motive, opportunity
* 1973: Saudi Arabia unleashes the Oil Shock, absorbs immense flows of
resources -- means
* 1978: Khomeiny challenges the Saudis' Islamic credentials, provoking a
radicalization and world-wide spread of Wahhabism in response -- motive
* 1979-1989: the anti-Soviet Jihad gives life and strength to the Wahhabi
putsch within Sunni Islam -- opportunity. The Taliban are the result
14
The impact on Saudi policy
* Wahhabism moves from Islam's lunatic fringe to center-stage -- its
mission now extends world-wide
* Saudis launch a putsch within Sunni Islam
* Shift from pragmatic oil policy to promotion of radical Islam
* Establish Saudi as "the indispensable State" -- treasurers of radical,
fundamentalist, terrorist groups
15
Saudis see themselves
* God placed the oil in the kingdom as a sign of divine approval
* Spread Wahhabism everywhere, but keep the power of the al-Saud
undiminished
* Survive by creating a Wahhabi-friendly environment -- fundamentalist
regimes -- throughout the Moslem world and beyond
16
The House of Saud today
* Saudi Arabia is central to the self-destruction of the Arab world and
the chief vector of the Arab crisis and its outwardly-directed aggression
* The Saudis are active at every level of the terror chain, from
planners to financiers, from cadre to foot-soldier, from ideologist to
cheerleader
* Saudi Arabia supports our enemies and attacks our allies
* A daily outpouring of virulent hatred against the U.S. from Saudi media,
"educational" institutions, clerics, officials -- Saudis tell us one thing
in private, do the contrary in reality
17
Strategies
18
What is to be done?
* During and after World War I, Britain's India Office backed the House
of Saud; the Foreign Office backed the Hashemites. The India Office won
* But the entire post-1917 Middle East settlement designed by the
British to replace the Ottoman Empire is fraying
* The role assigned to the House of Saud in that arrangement has become
obsolete -- and nefarious
19
"Saudi Arabia" is not a God-
given entity
* The House of Saud was given dominion over Arabia in 1922 by the
British
* It wrested the Guardianship of the Holy Places -- Mecca and Medina --
from the Hashemite dynasty
* There is an "Arabia," but it needs not be "Saudi"
20
An ultimatum to the House of
Saud
* Stop any funding and support for any fundamentalist madrasa, mosque,
ulama, predicator anywhere in the world
* Stop all anti-U.S., anti-Israeli, anti-Western predication, writings,
etc., within Arabia
* Dismantle, ban all the kingdom's "Islamic charities," confiscate their
assets
* Prosecute or isolate those involved in the terror chain, including in the
Saudi intelligence services
21
Or else ...
* What the House of Saud holds dear can be targeted:
‹Oil: the old fields are defended by U.S. forces, and located in a
mostly Shiite area
‹Money: the Kingdom is in dire financial straits, its valuable assets
invested in dollars, largely in the U.S.
‹The Holy Places: let it be known that alternatives are being canvassed
22
Other Arabs?
* The Saudis are hated throughout the Arab world: lazy, overbearing,
dishonest, corrupt
* If truly moderate regimes arise, the Wahhabi-Saudi nexus is pushed
back into its extremist corner
* The Hashemites have greater legitimacy as Guardians of Mecca and Medina
23
Grand strategy for the Middle
East
€ Iraq is the tactical pivot
€ Saudi Arabia the strategic pivot
€ Egypt the prize
24
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/Ey.GAA/kgFolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
------------------
http://all.net/
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-10-01 06:44:32 PDT