[iwar] Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002

From: Ravi V Prasad (r_v_p@yahoo.com)
Date: 2002-11-20 02:55:28


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Subject: [iwar] Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002
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My article, to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit
page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002

http://www.hindustantimes.com

Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad

=====================================
The caption of one of the photographs is: “VA-111
Shkval supercavitating torpedo, being launched from a
Russian Navy Oscar II-class submarine”


Shkval Torpedo
By Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad 

to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit page, of
Thursday, 21 November 2002

http://www.hindustantimes.com


Russia’s powerful industries and science minister,
Ilya Klebanov, is currently visiting India in
preparation for Vladimir Putin’s forthcoming visit. A
major item on Klebanov’s agenda today is the
finalization of the long-dragged-out negotiations for
the acquisition of the aircraft carrier, Admiral
Gorshkov, to replace the aging Viraat. Even though
Russia is gifting Gorshkov free of charge as it is
being phased out after a fire, and India is only to
bear the cost of upgradation (estimated at rupees
thirty billion), the acquisition has been vehemently
criticized by a former chief of naval staff, Admiral
J. G. Nadkarni. He considers Gorshkov to be far too
large; at 45,000 tonnes and with a deep draught it
would not be able to enter Mumbai harbour. Nadkarni
added: “Apart from basing and refitting problems, no
naval chief will be willing to risk such a high value
ship in the Arabian Sea in any conflict with Pakistan.
Karwar port will not be ready for another ten years.
Basing Gorshkov on the east coast is not a solution. A
conflict can erupt at short notice and be over before
Gorshkov arrives.”

Admiral Nadkarni’s apprehension regarding the
vulnerability of aircraft carriers to missile,
aircraft and submarine attacks is shared by Andrew
Marshall, Director, Pentagon’s Office of Net
Assessment. A wargame Marshall conducted a few weeks
ago had China attacking Taiwan in 2005, and USA
rushing to Taiwan’s defence. One finding of his
simulation was: “But the Pentagon’s array of wonder
weapons came up short. Three aircraft carriers had to
stay so far offshore -- out of range of Chinese
anti-ship missiles -- that their jets could not even
reach mainland China.” Marshall then prepared a secret
report for President Bush, “Strategy for a Long Peace
– A Quick Look” in which he argued for de-emphasizing
the US Navy’s current reliance on aircraft carriers
and recommended a cut in their numbers.

According to Commander Fred Levien, Chairman,
Information Warfare Curriculum, USA’s Naval
Postgraduate School, a major reason for the
vulnerability of large ships is the recent deployment
by Russia of its revolutionary Shkval torpedo which
uses supercavitation technology. Shkval, Russian for
“Squall”, has a range of over sixty miles and an
underwater speed of more than three hundred miles per
hour, more than five times that of any torpedo
deployed by NATO. Jack Spencer of Heritage Foundation
and David Miller of Jane's International Defense
Review stated that it was so fast that even if a
targeted NATO aircraft carrier or submarine detected
an incoming Shkval, it would not have enough time to
evade it or launch a counterattack. Shkval even has
the capability to strike the US Navy's Polaris
submarines before they can launch their
intercontinental ballistic missiles. Stating that a
single $ 200,000 Shkval could cause fatalities to all
the ten thousand servicemen on board each US aircraft
carrier, Levien added: “Fitted with a nuclear warhead,
Shkval could obliterate entire US naval battle groups
and abruptly blow a hole in USA’s carrier-based air
superiority doctrine…Shkval could tilt the entire
existing geopolitical balance of power.”

Another Russian weapon that NATO navies currently have
no defence against is the SS-N-22 Sunburn missile,
launched from Sovremenny destroyers. In her testimony
before the US House of Representatives Armed Services
Committee, leading defence expert June Teuffel painted
the following scenario: “Nine feet above water,
traveling at twice the speed of sound, with a
200-kiloton nuclear warhead, the radar-guided Sunburn
missile can weave its way through smaller ships until
it reaches its real target - a US aircraft carrier. At
the last instant, it would pop up from the ocean's
surface, smash into the side of the carrier and set
off a nuclear explosion six times as powerful as
Hiroshima. The US Navy has nothing that can stop it.”

If India is to assert itself as the regional
superpower, it is imperative for it to exert its
influence over strategic maritime “choke-points” such
as the Malacca Straits and the Persian Gulf. Moreover,
India should beware of China’s plans to extend its
influence in South Asian waters, as advocated by the
“active offshore defense”, “blue-water navy” and
“surprise guerrilla attacks at sea” policies
formulated by its former naval chief and vice chairman
of its Central Military Committee, Liu Huaqing. China
is closely involved in Pakistan’s new deep sea port at
Gawadhar. China has already established an extensive
signals intelligence facility on Great Coco Island,
just a few miles from Andamans. This will enable it to
monitor Indian missile launches from Balasore and
rocket and satellite launches from Sriharikota. China
is also associated with Myanmar naval bases at
Munaung, Hainggyi, Katan Island, and Zadaikyi Island.
China is constructing road and waterway links from its
southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port,
which will provide it direct access to the Bay of
Bengal, obviating the need to cross the
Malacca-Singapore straits. 

Most worrisome for India is that China is purchasing
large numbers of Shkvals and Sunburns from Russia.
Deliveries already made include forty Shkvals, four
Kilo-class diesel-powered attack submarines and two
Sovremenny destroyers equipped with SS-N-22 Sunburn
missiles, Sa-17 "Grizzly" anti-aircraft missiles and
"Helix-A" Ka-28 antisubmarine helicopters. Grizzly
flies at 4,000 feet per second and can hit an airplane
flying 15 miles high, 35 miles away. 

India should therefore move aggressively to extend its
maritime influence from brown water to green water and
then blue water. In order to achieve this, it will
need a formidable naval air presence, supported by
oilers, AWACs and refueling aircraft. The Afghanistan
campaign has clearly shown that the age of aircraft
carriers is not over, contrary to what Nadkarni and
Marshall may think. Having been denied the use of air
bases by neighboring countries, America had to rely on
its aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea to launch its
bombers for bombarding Afghanistan. Liu Huaqing,
regarded as one of the leading naval strategists of
the present era, has placed aircraft carriers at the
centre of his “blue water navy” doctrine.

Today, Russia has some of the most advanced naval
equipment and they would be available relatively
cheaply in view of its ongoing financial crisis. In
order to strengthen our green water and blue water
capabilities, India should take advantage of the
visits of Klebanov and Putin to acquire the Gorshkov
immediately. India should also acquire squadrons of
SU-33 and MIG 29-k aircraft that can take off and land
from Gorshkov, especially since our Sea Harriers are
nearing the end of their useful life. India should
immediately leverage its special relationship with
Russia for manufacture under license of advanced
equipment such as Sovremenny destroyers; Kilo 636 and
Victor III submarines; Bars, Akula, Antyey and Oscar
class submarines; and Shkvals and Sunburns.


By Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad 

to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit page, of
Thursday, 21 November 2002

http://www.hindustantimes.com


The author heads a group which analyzes C4ISRT
(Command, Control, Communications and Computers
Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and
Targetting) in South Asia. He is also a consultant to
the Centre for Monitoring Chinese Military Activities.

==========================================================
Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad
rvp@50g.com, rvp@r67.net
Mobile: 98-117-56789
Pager: 9622-173-660
Phones : [11] 526-5439
Mail : Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad 
19, Maitri Apts, A - 3 Paschim Vihar
New Delhi, 110 063


=====
Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad & AssociatesManagement Consultants in Information Technology, Internet, Telecom, Softwarervp@lycos.com, rvp@excite.com, rvp@yifan.net, rvp@50g.com, rp@k.sthttp://42.4t.com, http://37.s5.comModerator of the following discussion groupsSoftware Industry in India at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sw-indTelecommunications Industry in India at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tel-ind

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