Return-Path: <sentto-279987-5365-1037789729-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 20 Nov 2002 02:58:28 -0800 (PST) Received: (qmail 28478 invoked by uid 511); 20 Nov 2002 10:56:09 -0000 Received: from n30.grp.scd.yahoo.com (66.218.66.87) by all.net with SMTP; 20 Nov 2002 10:56:09 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-5365-1037789729-fc=all.net@returns.groups.yahoo.com Received: from [66.218.66.97] by n30.grp.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 20 Nov 2002 10:55:29 -0000 X-Sender: r_v_p@yahoo.com X-Apparently-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_2_3_0); 20 Nov 2002 10:55:28 -0000 Received: (qmail 72066 invoked from network); 20 Nov 2002 10:55:28 -0000 Received: from unknown (66.218.66.216) by m14.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 20 Nov 2002 10:55:28 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO web20707.mail.yahoo.com) (216.136.226.180) by mta1.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 20 Nov 2002 10:55:28 -0000 Message-ID: <20021120105528.5654.qmail@web20707.mail.yahoo.com> Received: from [61.11.27.97] by web20707.mail.yahoo.com via HTTP; Wed, 20 Nov 2002 02:55:28 PST To: iwar@yahoogroups.com, 4gw@yahoogroups.com, c4i@yahoogroups.com, c4i2@yahoogroups.com, spy-paki@yahoogroups.com, china-strategy@yahoogroups.com, china-india@yahoogroups.com, pak-india@yahoogroups.com, india-pak@yahoogroups.com From: Ravi V Prasad <r_v_p@yahoo.com> X-Yahoo-Profile: r_v_p Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 20 Nov 2002 02:55:28 -0800 (PST) Subject: [iwar] Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002 Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit My article, to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002 http://www.hindustantimes.com Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad ===================================== The caption of one of the photographs is: “VA-111 Shkval supercavitating torpedo, being launched from a Russian Navy Oscar II-class submarine” Shkval Torpedo By Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002 http://www.hindustantimes.com Russia’s powerful industries and science minister, Ilya Klebanov, is currently visiting India in preparation for Vladimir Putin’s forthcoming visit. A major item on Klebanov’s agenda today is the finalization of the long-dragged-out negotiations for the acquisition of the aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov, to replace the aging Viraat. Even though Russia is gifting Gorshkov free of charge as it is being phased out after a fire, and India is only to bear the cost of upgradation (estimated at rupees thirty billion), the acquisition has been vehemently criticized by a former chief of naval staff, Admiral J. G. Nadkarni. He considers Gorshkov to be far too large; at 45,000 tonnes and with a deep draught it would not be able to enter Mumbai harbour. Nadkarni added: “Apart from basing and refitting problems, no naval chief will be willing to risk such a high value ship in the Arabian Sea in any conflict with Pakistan. Karwar port will not be ready for another ten years. Basing Gorshkov on the east coast is not a solution. A conflict can erupt at short notice and be over before Gorshkov arrives.” Admiral Nadkarni’s apprehension regarding the vulnerability of aircraft carriers to missile, aircraft and submarine attacks is shared by Andrew Marshall, Director, Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment. A wargame Marshall conducted a few weeks ago had China attacking Taiwan in 2005, and USA rushing to Taiwan’s defence. One finding of his simulation was: “But the Pentagon’s array of wonder weapons came up short. Three aircraft carriers had to stay so far offshore -- out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles -- that their jets could not even reach mainland China.” Marshall then prepared a secret report for President Bush, “Strategy for a Long Peace – A Quick Look” in which he argued for de-emphasizing the US Navy’s current reliance on aircraft carriers and recommended a cut in their numbers. According to Commander Fred Levien, Chairman, Information Warfare Curriculum, USA’s Naval Postgraduate School, a major reason for the vulnerability of large ships is the recent deployment by Russia of its revolutionary Shkval torpedo which uses supercavitation technology. Shkval, Russian for “Squall”, has a range of over sixty miles and an underwater speed of more than three hundred miles per hour, more than five times that of any torpedo deployed by NATO. Jack Spencer of Heritage Foundation and David Miller of Jane's International Defense Review stated that it was so fast that even if a targeted NATO aircraft carrier or submarine detected an incoming Shkval, it would not have enough time to evade it or launch a counterattack. Shkval even has the capability to strike the US Navy's Polaris submarines before they can launch their intercontinental ballistic missiles. Stating that a single $ 200,000 Shkval could cause fatalities to all the ten thousand servicemen on board each US aircraft carrier, Levien added: “Fitted with a nuclear warhead, Shkval could obliterate entire US naval battle groups and abruptly blow a hole in USA’s carrier-based air superiority doctrine…Shkval could tilt the entire existing geopolitical balance of power.” Another Russian weapon that NATO navies currently have no defence against is the SS-N-22 Sunburn missile, launched from Sovremenny destroyers. In her testimony before the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, leading defence expert June Teuffel painted the following scenario: “Nine feet above water, traveling at twice the speed of sound, with a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead, the radar-guided Sunburn missile can weave its way through smaller ships until it reaches its real target - a US aircraft carrier. At the last instant, it would pop up from the ocean's surface, smash into the side of the carrier and set off a nuclear explosion six times as powerful as Hiroshima. The US Navy has nothing that can stop it.” If India is to assert itself as the regional superpower, it is imperative for it to exert its influence over strategic maritime “choke-points” such as the Malacca Straits and the Persian Gulf. Moreover, India should beware of China’s plans to extend its influence in South Asian waters, as advocated by the “active offshore defense”, “blue-water navy” and “surprise guerrilla attacks at sea” policies formulated by its former naval chief and vice chairman of its Central Military Committee, Liu Huaqing. China is closely involved in Pakistan’s new deep sea port at Gawadhar. China has already established an extensive signals intelligence facility on Great Coco Island, just a few miles from Andamans. This will enable it to monitor Indian missile launches from Balasore and rocket and satellite launches from Sriharikota. China is also associated with Myanmar naval bases at Munaung, Hainggyi, Katan Island, and Zadaikyi Island. China is constructing road and waterway links from its southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port, which will provide it direct access to the Bay of Bengal, obviating the need to cross the Malacca-Singapore straits. Most worrisome for India is that China is purchasing large numbers of Shkvals and Sunburns from Russia. Deliveries already made include forty Shkvals, four Kilo-class diesel-powered attack submarines and two Sovremenny destroyers equipped with SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles, Sa-17 "Grizzly" anti-aircraft missiles and "Helix-A" Ka-28 antisubmarine helicopters. Grizzly flies at 4,000 feet per second and can hit an airplane flying 15 miles high, 35 miles away. India should therefore move aggressively to extend its maritime influence from brown water to green water and then blue water. In order to achieve this, it will need a formidable naval air presence, supported by oilers, AWACs and refueling aircraft. The Afghanistan campaign has clearly shown that the age of aircraft carriers is not over, contrary to what Nadkarni and Marshall may think. Having been denied the use of air bases by neighboring countries, America had to rely on its aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea to launch its bombers for bombarding Afghanistan. Liu Huaqing, regarded as one of the leading naval strategists of the present era, has placed aircraft carriers at the centre of his “blue water navy” doctrine. Today, Russia has some of the most advanced naval equipment and they would be available relatively cheaply in view of its ongoing financial crisis. In order to strengthen our green water and blue water capabilities, India should take advantage of the visits of Klebanov and Putin to acquire the Gorshkov immediately. India should also acquire squadrons of SU-33 and MIG 29-k aircraft that can take off and land from Gorshkov, especially since our Sea Harriers are nearing the end of their useful life. India should immediately leverage its special relationship with Russia for manufacture under license of advanced equipment such as Sovremenny destroyers; Kilo 636 and Victor III submarines; Bars, Akula, Antyey and Oscar class submarines; and Shkvals and Sunburns. By Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad to be carried in the Hindustan Times, edit page, of Thursday, 21 November 2002 http://www.hindustantimes.com The author heads a group which analyzes C4ISRT (Command, Control, Communications and Computers Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Targetting) in South Asia. He is also a consultant to the Centre for Monitoring Chinese Military Activities. ========================================================== Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad rvp@50g.com, rvp@r67.net Mobile: 98-117-56789 Pager: 9622-173-660 Phones : [11] 526-5439 Mail : Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad 19, Maitri Apts, A - 3 Paschim Vihar New Delhi, 110 063 ===== Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad & AssociatesManagement Consultants in Information Technology, Internet, Telecom, Softwarervp@lycos.com, rvp@excite.com, rvp@yifan.net, rvp@50g.com, rp@k.sthttp://42.4t.com, http://37.s5.comModerator of the following discussion groupsSoftware Industry in India at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sw-indTelecommunications Industry in India at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/tel-ind __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - Let the expert host your site http://webhosting.yahoo.com ------------------------ Yahoo! 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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2002-12-31 12:01:54 PST