A Framework for Deception
Draft Report

4.3 SYNTHETIC / CREATIVE / K-BUILDING PROCEDURES / THINKING MODE. This thinking mode handles the building of the knowledge structures used by other parts of the cognitive system. It uses processes which produce each state description or process found elsewhere in the system, except those which are innate. This section is not developed, the principles being listed with other, corresponding parts of the system. Controls: K-BUILDING PRINCIPLES have been combined with the K-USING MANAGER principles in this edition. -
4.3.a - Info selection from external and internal sources. (See also 6.3.2. CONTROLLER.) - -
4.3.b - Info format and modality - -
4.3.c - Reference information - -
4.4.0 General effectiveness of problem-solving processes. - - - Speed - - - Timing - - - Reliability - - - Criticality - - -
4.4.1 LOCAL GOAL PURSUIT & PROBLEM SOLVING PROCEDURE. - - - FORMULATE PROBLEM & (RE-)EXPRESS IN INTERNAL FORM: (Note: Relating EXT WORLD to INT IMAGE is fundamental.) - - - Establish / Refer to GOAL (including actual and perceived intent, priorities). Planning. Determines: Affect / capitalize on target's goals & priorities (Note: evaluate and predict target's goals). - Goals (e.g., setting) - - Time factors (constraints on achieving goal) - - - Long term - - - Intermediate term - - - Short term (see 2.3. CONTROLLER: processing strategy) - - - Specificity - - - General - - - Specific - - - - - Induce target to establish a goal or subgoal which: - - - is new, and of equal or higher priority. - - - works against target's intent. - - - pursues (apparently accidentally) sacrificial bait which lures target into disadvantageous position. - - - is non-optimal. - - - due to target's compromise with our falsely stated goal. Bargaining agent sets higher price than he wants so final compromise meets his original goal. - - is irrelevant or a decoy. If the Russians were to make the U.S. believe that Soviet research into ESP were paying off when in fact it was not, it might induce the U.S. to expend funds on fruitless research. - - is an additional concern. - - - is defensive rather than offensive. - - - Resurrect a previously satisfied goal of higher priority. A gambit (sacrifice) in chess can eliminate the defense created by ones opponent and force the opponent to rebuild. - - Induce or capitalize on target's efforts by having their ultimate effect be toward a higher level goal we desire. - - - Induce target to commit a partial investment toward an initial goal, and then induce target to change his goal to a different one we prefer, e.g., by allowing target to see that his original goal was not worthwhile (bait and switch). - - goals, subgoals - - - priorities among goals - - - means to goals, authority, resources - - - time schedule - - Establish / Refer to INITIAL or CURRENT STATE (see also 8.8. LTM INTERNAL IMAGES of COGNITIVE SYSTEM's and OTHER SYSTEM's physical & mental condition) (see also EXEC 1.6.1.). Perceived story or scenario - - Assumptions. - - - - - Go outside the subconscious assumptions target has. - - - Violate target's assumption that what is trying to avoid him will remain out of his sight, for example put item or info where it is obvious, and therefore not expected. In E. A. Poe's 'The Purloined Letter,' the letter is placed in plain sight in the maildrop where it was completely overlooked. - - Have sought item or solution outside normally considered set (or involve additional spatial dimension, make solution dynamic rather than static, etc). In Agatha Christie's mystery, 'The Murder of Roger Ackroyd,' the murderer is the writer. Puzzle: How can one rearrange 6 coins in the form of a 't' to form two intersecting rows with an equal number coins in each? Solution (which involves an additional dimension): stack two coins at intersection. - - Lead target to overlook the correct solution by making others' actions or his task seem illogical or unnecessary if he knew what the correct solution was. (e.g., by an action which is 'bold', or completely unexpected; 'hutzpah', nerve, gall.) In a role-playing game, the player was sent out to find someone (the king) who turned out to be himself. In murder mysteries, the killer often makes himself appear to be a victim to remove suspicion from himself. - - Challenge target on the same point we are using deceptively. Shopper shoplifts and then requests a refund for the product. If he fails to get it, he takes the product and leaves. - - See re erroneous automatic assumptions. - - Capitalize on cultural or popular values, biases, & prejudices (Logical Fallacy 25 & Logical Fallacy 36). (See also 8.8.1.) - - - Get target to accept an assumption which presumes the existance of something imaginary. (Note: counterdeception is difficult because target must identify ALL his assumptions.) Puzzle: An electric train travels north at 10m / sec; the wind is easterly at 5 m / sec; in what direction does the smoke travel? Ans: Electric trains don't make smoke. (The smoke & the problem are imaginary; the solution is irrelevant.) - - Get target to accept the erroneous assumption of a third party by providing intent information from the third party's viewpoint. A person goes to bed at eleven pm and sets his alarm to wake him at noon. How many hours sleep will he get? - - Induce / capitalize on target's failure to scrutinize basic or implicit assumptions; to 'take things for granted'. (See also - - - Use unproven 'facts' to prove something (Logical Fallacy 52.). - - - Circular reasoning (Logical Fallacy 51.). - - - Use a leading question, which assumes its own answer (Logical Fallacy 63.) - - - Complex question, which assumes a fact related to its answer (Logical Fallacy 54.). 'Have you stopped beating your wife?' One's response may be led astray unless he realizes that the question assumes he has been beating his wife. Hypotheses. - - - - - Provide alternative hypotheses for target so target needs to consider them in addition to, or (Logical Fallacy 30 'The Good Reason') will consider them instead of, the correct one. - - Protect info sources by providing plausible alternatives. - - - Implicitly provide an alternative question to consider (e.g., consider means rather than the end: Instead of arguing against something, give an excuse why it can't be done (Logical Fallacy 58)). - - - Get target committed to an incorrect hypothesis (e.g., by emphasizing a false 'fact'). During WWII, Hitler withheld reinforcements from Normandy for days after the Allies had landed because he was convinced that the Allies were going to land at Pas de Calais, and, therefore, that this landing was a ruse. Perceived probability of deception. - Capitalize on target's belief about the probability of deception: - - - Induce / capitalize on the belief that there is more deception than there is. - - - Capitalize on behavior introduced by suspicion. -- use 'reverse psychology': tell truth in a way such that target believes it is not true. The ruse 'look behind you!' to distract an opponent became such a cliche', particularly in fiction, that the standard response became to refuse to do so. Thus it was then possible to prevent someone from looking behind him simply by saying 'look behind you!' - - Slow target's decisions & actions by making him overly cautious. - - - Induce / capitalize on the belief that there is less deception than there is (target may be less vulnerable if he knows he has been deceived before). - Measures of confidence in achieving goal. - - - External monitoring (FEEDBACK input). - - - - - Induce desired decision based on partial information: - - - Provide info supporting desired decision first. - - - Omit info: - - - opposing desired decision. - - - to produce a biased picture. - - - Suppress quantification info: omit 'some' or 'all' (Logical Fallacy 47). - - - Induce target to fill in own info. - - - provide ambiguous info (e.g., omit units; ambiguous written letters with more than one interpretation depending on context.) NOTE: An unsophisticated target (such as a child) routinely observes more general detail than a sophisticated target (such as an adult) because he has not yet learned to fill in as much information from previous experience. His attention shifts more easily: it is easier to misdirect, but is also more likely to shift again to the 'wrong place'. 'THE CAT', in which the H and the A are written in an identical, intermediate form which can be interpreted as either. - - provide ambiguous language structure (e.g., target understands first meaning; second one is true; literal use of figure of speech, or vice versa; ambiguous sentence structure, accent or stress, word order, or punctuation (Logical Fallacy 49)). Q: 'I have two coins totaling $.30, and one is not a quarter. What are target?' Ans: One is a nickel; the OTHER one is the quarter. Q: 'One would cost 20 cents; twelve would cost 40 cents; nine-hundred and twelve would cost 60 cents. What are we buying?' Ans: Street numbers. - - unwarranted extrapolation (e.g., on the basis of a partial cycle of a periodic function). - - - emphasize a characteristic of an item to induce target to falsely infer that it is a unique characteristic which does not apply to the items in the complement set. A brewery advertised that target washed their bottles with live steam. Consumers falsely inferred that their competitors did not do likewise. - - Provide part of surface structure to imply false deep structure (e.g., quote out of context). - - - Induce desired decision by providing contradictory information (Logical Fallacy 53) (e.g., words used in opposition to meaning, such as Orwell's 1984 slogan 'War is peace'). - DEFINE CURRENT PROBLEM-SOLVING STATUS & PROBLEM SPACE: - - - Define Problem-Solving Status (COMPARE images: goal state & initial / current state). - - - Define Problem Space. - - - Assess Resource Requirements. - - - External Resources. - - - Internal Resources. - - - K, K-Types, K-Sources, Attributes (see 5.1. STRUCTURE OF WORLD-IMAGE KNOWLEDGE & BELIEF). - - - Assess Available Capabilities and Processes. - - - See section 1.2. MENTAL CONDITION: Motivation, self-image, etc. - - - Process IDEF parameters: - - - Input. - - - Controls & Constraints on processes; autonomy (see also & - - - Resources (e.g. avail of sensors and affectors). - - - Output. - - - SOLVE PROBLEM. - Abandonment of discussion (Logical Fallacy 45). (We abandon discussion to lead target away from further pursuit of a line of reasoning. We claim discussion is unnecessary, irrelevant, indecent, immoral, unpatriotic, etc.; or abuses target using ad hominum; etc.) (Example of Abandonment of Discussion.) A psychic states: 'I don't care what people think, I KNOW my powers are genuine.' Generate & Plan Options (means to goals). - Induce target to establish means which: - - Relate states & processes. - - - - PREDICT effects of processes & other resources on states. - - - - Plan go / no-go conditions. - - - - Plan preplanned responses. - - - - - are non-optimal (require more work). The false shortcut was a standard ruse in old films and cartoons. Instead of being quicker, it took much longer. - - work against target's intent. - - - lead in wrong direction (ask wrong question; solve wrong problem; false lead; red herring). - Evaluate Options. (E.g., by using procedure 4.4.2. Payoff Matrix Evaluation.) - - - Generate, select, & employ standards and Measures of Effectiveness (MOE's). - Anesthetize critical faculties (e.g. by flattery). - MONITOR and evaluate PAST effects of PROCESSES on STATES using FEEDBACK. (Compare current state with previous states; Evaluate appropriateness.) - - - Previous goals. - - - Previous processes. - - - Previous choices. - - - Progress toward goal. - - - - - Demonstrate initial success (e.g., a pyramid scheme; a 'Ponzi' scheme). - - Reinforce target's belief that he is attaining his goal. - - - Induce target to believe the goal he seeks has already been achieved (may be processed by CONTROLLER). - - - found info he seeks. In Isaac Asimov's 'Second Foundation,' the organization called 'the second foundation' allows a large number of their people to be discovered and eliminated so that the rest of the galaxy, who wanted to be free of them, would presume them destroyed. Thus, the organization could continue its operations. - - found info source or channel he seeks. - - - has already 'observed carefully'. - - - has already seen through the deception. - - mission accomplished. - - - goal is obsolete. - FEEDBACK: Performance coupling (degree; value). - - - - - Provide target with false feedback where none exists, and use it to control target's actions or responses. Experimenter provides subject with false biofeedback (e.g., heartrate) to influence male subject's attraction to females in pictures. Effects were not removed by debriefing. - - Induce target to interpret (uncoupled) data as feedback bearing on a decision. - Validate CURRENT picture / situation. - - - - - Level of detail that target will examine is crucial, and depends on the scale (size) of the deception, target's available resources, and target's level of suspicion. To provide target with picture complete down to smallest detail (e.g., in case target checks): - - - Play role exactly as if it were true (viz a theatrical act). - - - Cover all sensors. Fake military maneuvers may include dummy radio messages, sound effects, etc. - - Allow, or subtly induce, target to evaluate data critically where or when there's nothing to find which will weaken his (deceived) picture. - Predict FUTURE outcomes (use context, models, etc., to generate expectation). - Induce target to make incorrect predictions, and, therefore, to have false expectations. - - - by providing faulty input data. - Evaluate Options. - - - With respect to absolute criteria, assumptions, and K-validity. - - - Relative evaluation (comparison) with respect to optimal / best-fit. - - - Cost / effectiveness evaluation. - - - Choose / Prioritize Options. - - - Decision threshold or criterion. - - - Prioritize options. - Induce target to change priorities among goals - STATE DESCRIPTIONS: Goals & Subgoals. - - - PROCESSES: Means to Solutions. - - - - - to non-optimal priorities. -
4.4.2 PAYOFF-MATRIX Evaluation. Set up a table which includes the following: - - - Conditions or events. - - - Possible conditions or events. - Assuming a dichotomy for a continuum of possibilities. - - - All or nothing mistake (assuming one must have all or none) (Logical Fallacy 11). Fallacy: One is either knowledgeable or ignorant. (In fact, one may be knowledgeable about some topics and ignorant about others.) - - False dilemma (assuming one must have condition A or B, but not both; that only one can be right) (Logical Fallacy 12). - - - Falsely imply A & B make up the entire set of possibilities. - - - Then convince target that C is true because both A and B imply C. - - - 'The wicked alternative'-- since one alternative is obviously wrong, another, falsely assumed to be the only other choice, must be right (Logical Fallacy 42). - - - Choose A & B so target selects the one we desire because it is the lesser of two evils. - - - Claiming that, since one can't prove A, NOT-A must be true (Logical Fallacy 57). - Probabilities of conditions or events. - - - Possible alternative decisions / choices for a given condition or event. - - - Investment (Cost, effort, manpower, material, logistics, weapons, to pursue alternative). - Make target work hard for partial recovery of loss to change his perception of the possibilities, and to divert his energy from his original complete-recovery goal. - Possible outcomes (e.g., hit, miss, FA, CR). - - - Payoff value for each possible outcome (event x decision). - - - Positive components. - Use positive social motivating factors (see Levi's ads constantly emphasize how long Levi's pants have existed, trying to make them appear to be an American tradition. Negative components. - - - - - Decrease perceived value of outcome. - - - Make seem obsolete. - - - New situation. - - - Use negative social motivating factors to make target unwilling to oppose an idea. - Probability of outcome, for a given choice. - - - - - Make outcome in target's favor have zero probability without target's knowledge. You win if this ear of corn has an odd number of rows of kernels; Otherwise, I win; O.K.? (Result is always even.) - - Shift target's matrix probability values by a rigged example, especially one in which his skepticism causes him to miss a 'genuine opportunity'. In a western saloon, a miner openly sells his confederate a gold brick at a ridiculously low price. Others, skeptical, tease the confederate who proves the gold brick is indeed genuine. When the miner keeps his promise to return with many more (fakes), he sells them all. - - Change perceived false alarm (FA) rate (cry wolf). - - Research target's needs and offer something target needs, or that we can persuade target to want. - - - Fabricate an imaginary entity that target wants. - - - Show target apparent results of selecting alternatives. - - - - Many things sold today have planned obsolesence: e.g., even though the item may be just as good now as when it was new, we are made to believe it is worth much less just because it is old or out of style. Expected (overall average) payoff for each possible decision. - Establish good associations; appeal to tradition (or faith?) ('because it has worked, been good, been done in the past, it should be done now') (Logical Fallacy 23). - Actual expected payoff values. - - - Perceived expected payoff values. - Misrepresent our or third party's attitude towards value of something in order to influence target's perception of its value. Tom Sawyer made it look like it was so much fun that he induced others to pay him to whitewash his fence for him. Hope (see EXEC Motivation). - - - Perceived risk, peril. - If target wants to maintain the status quo in a hostile situation, and we make confusing signals, then target will probably procrastinate unless he perceives risk in waiting, in which case he will probably start early action. - - - Bluff. Disguise as target's high ranking officer. Demand entry saying if target's guard delays you, he will be in 'big trouble'.
4.4.2.A - - Change actual payoff matrix without target's knowledge. -
4.4.2.B - - Change (manipulate) target's perceived payoff matrix as a function of time. -
4.4.2.B.a - - Planned obsolence. Clothing may become unusable for its original purpose while still practically new due to changes in fashion. Mechanical parts may be designed to fail after limited use.
4.4.2.C - - Manipulate / misrepresent target's perceived payoff matrix to control decisions. -
4.4.2.C.a - - get initial commitment (e.g., of money, time, involvement) before modifying payoff matrix. -
4.4.2.C.b - - Also Claim imminent loss is likely (e.g. emergency exists) (false warning). -
4.4.2.C.c - - Claim imminent change in supply, price, or reward. -
4.4.2.C.d - - Manipulate impact of changes in matrix values. -
4.4.2.C.d.aa - - Control info flow to target about changes. -
4.4.3 ANALYTICAL PROCEDURES, TOOLS, THEORIES, MODELS, ETC. - - - Mathematical tools and procedures. - - - Formulas; models & simulations; procedures, algorithms, & routines. - - - Logical & intuitive reasoning & judgement. (NOTE: Some intuition may be considered as an EXEC function involving a less conscious or less rigorous application of analytical tools without extensive MANAGER involvement. Perhaps it employs 'table look-ups' made possible by previous experience.) - - - Logical reasoning and judgement. - - - - - 'Undistributed middle'. Unwarranted transfer of a characteristic via an intermediate set (Logical Fallacy 46); e.g.: - - - (1) A is B, C is B, so A is C. (e.g., guilt by association.) - - - (2) A is B, some B is C, so all C are A. - - - (3) For further examples, see logical fallacies references (e.g., Fernside). - - - Unequal negation (Logical Fallacy 61): - - - No A are B, No C are A, so all C are B. - - - All A are B, All B are C, so some C are not A. - - - Non sequitur - - - (Claiming falsely that A implies B) (Logical Fallacy 48). - - - False converse (A implies B, so B implies A). - - - Incorrect conditional (A implies B, so NOT-A implies NOT-B). - - - Incorrect alternatives (A or B, so A implies NOT-B). - - - Claiming that the exception proves the rule (Logical Fallacy 60). - - - The 'thin, entering wedge' (Logical Fallacy 59). The domino' theory. Once allowed to start, it will not be stoppable as scheduled. 'Give them an inch and target'll take a mile. - Intuitive judgement & estimation biases. Intuitive estimation biases: Capitalize on intuitive estimation biases. - Sampling bias. - - - - - If something normally present is not normally observed and is believed absent, claim we caused it and instruct target to observe it. (e.g., focus attention on a particular feature, such as a match between two events.) (See also Belief: Oddmatches). A psychic on the radio told listeners that if target concentrated along with him target would create unusual effects around their houses such as stopping clocks, starting broken watches, and bending keys. Many called in to verify that such effects were indeed occuring. Subsequently it was revealed that the man was not a psychic, but was demonstrating how psychics can take credit for causing amazing effects by taking advantage of peoples' common failure to notice everyday occurences. - Personal, personality, mental, & physical predispositions See characteristics. - - Innate, learned, preprogrammed by others See Subjective Validation; & Oddmatches. - - Statistical estimation Humans are poor at estimating combinations of events. - - Poor at Bayesian statistics: - - - Often employs unrepresentative sampling - - - Incorrectly estimates probability of events - - - Makes oddmatches due to failure to know size of target or sampled sets - - - Notices events but fails to notice non-events - - - Subject to subjective validation of a hypothesis (Ignore data which does not fit; Use data which does) - - - - Humans are poor at estimating randomness (e.g., target tend avoid repeated numbers when generating a random string of numbers). - - - Overconfidence increases with increasing odds, such that an amount bet increases too fast and long-run expected losses increase. - - - Induce / capitalize on target's use of intuition instead of logic. - - - Falsely conclude a parameter is significant (e.g., by 'lying with statistics'). - - - The use of non-independent samples as though target were independent sources of information may lead to overconfidence. - - - Assuming dependence of independent data (Logical Fallacy 37); i.e., the assumption of relationships which don't actually exist. (Logical Fallacy #37.) In roulette, gamblers may incorrectly assume that after a run of black the ball is more likely to come up red. - - - Uri Geller routinely amazes his audiences by discerning figures sketched by a spectator. In one such case, he uses the knowledge that, when asked to draw a simple geometrical shape, a high percentage of people will draw a triangle. People are generally unaware of this fact. - - - Fallacy according to Roosevelt's new deal policy: If the individual must spend within his budget, so must the federal government. - - - 'Women are weaker than men' is true on the average, but not true for many specific cases. - - - The belief that an individual is entitled to a refund from the insurance company because he (as an individual) has a good claims record. Comparison. - - - - - Improper comparison. - - - compare noncomparables ('apples & oranges'). - - - look at gross numbers rather than proportions, or vice versa. - - - refer to 'all else being equal' when all else is not equal. - - - due to improper data reduction. - - - change emphasis by comparing something with 'all others' when there are significant others worthy of individual consideration. - - - Improper scales and baselines. - - - omit or use improper (e.g., non-zero) baselines. - - - comparative rather than absolute basis. - - - fail to normalize. - - - Change scale between graphs. - - - pick scales (absolute number, percent, linear, logarithmic, etc.) to emphasize desired relationship. - - - Omit relevant info; e.g., give mean, but no distribution. - - - - In a Pyramid scheme (e.g., a chain letter), the number of people required increases geometrically as the scheme progresses, so that the victim fails to be paid off because there are too few people in the 'world' to accommodate the scheme. The victim may also be mislead as to the probability of each individual perpetuating the scheme.
4.8.8 Available memories are LTM, STM, & sensor & affector buffers (q.v.). - - -