A RAND NOTE AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF THE OPEN LITERATURE ON DECEPTION Zell Stanley December 1985 N-2332-NA * * * * * * The online version of this document was prepared with OCR software from a printed copy. Although it has been carefully proofread, there is no guarantee that the one instance of the word you are searching for is spelled correctly. Obvious typos in the printed document were corrected. 5-12-2001 * * * * * * Prepared for: The Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense RAND 1700 MAIN STREET P.O. BOX 2118 SANTA MONICA. CA 90406-2138 The research described in this report was sponsored by the Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, under Contract MDA903-83-C-0225. The Rand Publications Series: The Report is the principal publication documenting and transmitting Rand's major research findings and final research results. The Rand Note reports other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution. Publications of The Rand Corporation do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the sponsors of Rand research. Published by The Rand Corporation iii PREFACE Deception, its significance in peacetime, in war, and in war avoidance, and how to counter deception are topics of a widening public literature. Deception in peacetime can affect the strategic balance of forces, the propensity to commit forces in conflict , arms control strategies, and various decisions affecting defense capabilities. The Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, has for some time encouraged the study of deception in peace and war. Under sponsorship of OSD Net Assessm ent, the present bibliography has been prepared. This collection is believed to be one of the largest, most up-to-date, and most comprehensive checklists of open literature on deception to date in the English language. Parts of the bibliography have entries--and citations on those entries--relevant to c urrent national issues. They include possible Soviet deception regarding SALT commitments, specific allegations of such deception, reports by arms control associations and governmental advisory groups on possible Soviet deception, and the effect of decept ion on the ability to verify various arms control agreements. The author has assembled the available texts and selectively annotated them for the assistance of other scholars and interested readers. - V - SUMMARY This bibliography of deception and how to counter deception was done functionally by twelve categories: A section on Arms Control and Deception addresses arms control policies and deception, agreements, and violations of arms control agreements as well as commentary on issues of compliance and noncompliance. The section on Behavior of Targets of Deception analyzes methods of influencing actions by decisionmakers. China: Military and Political Deception. This section recounts the role of deception and stratagem in China's history of warfare, with emphasis on 20th century development. The section on Countering Deception contains a small body of writings on structuring and analytic procedures to detect and counter deception. The General Deception Studies section covers broad theoretical works on a variety of aspects, including persuasion, self-deception, and strategic deception from the perspectives of history, political science, psychology, and organization. The section on Historical Studies encompasses works on World War II and before, and comprehensively relates deception operations and tactics, including specific techniques, such as the use of agents and double agents for deception. The Human Deception section is largely about individuals and groups in their role-enactment and deception methodologies and involvement of interpersonal deception. The section on Interspecie Deception compares studies of mimicry and alarm systems in insects. There is an overlap between the section on Surprise Attack and Deception and USSR Military Deception and USSR Political Deception. Because so much of the material collected concerns Soviet deception activities, it is organized into these last two sections . - vii - ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Note draws primarily upon the collection of public source literature of William R. Harris, supplemented by computer literature searches. I am grateful and indebted to him; without his help and encouragement this undertaking would not have been possib le. Also, I would like to thank Hugh B. Carnes, not only for his contributions but also for his assistance and invaluable critique. Gratitude is also expressed to Barton Whaley and William L. Griego for their expertise and helpful suggestions, as well as to C olonel A.G. Jannarone and F.R. Feer. I would like to express my appreciation to Roberta Shanman and Joan Schlimgen of the Rand Library for their computer searches and never ending patience; and to Marjorie Behrens of the Rand Soviet Library for her assistance in Russian transliterations and translations of titles and text. Finally, I would like to mention my daughter, Alison--always an inspiration. - ix - CONTENTS AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF THE OPEN LITERATURE ON DECEPTION PREFACE iii SUMMARY v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii SUBJECT HEADINGS Arms Control and Deception 1 Behavior of Targets of Deception 16 Bibliographies on Deception 25 China: Military and Political Deception 27 Countering Deception 29 General Deception Studies 39 Historical Studies 51 Human Deception 68 Interspecie Deception 74 Surprise Attack and Deception 76 USSR Military Deception 91 USSR Political Deception 103 Index 115 - 1 - ARMS CONTROL AND DECEPTION Abt, Clark C., "Saturation of Inspection Systems by Intentional False Alarms," Memorandum CCA-569. Bedford, MA: Raytheon Corporation, June 29, 1962, 2 p. mimeo. "Amendment No. 3248 [Bumpers Amendment]," Congressional Record, June 19, 1984, pp. 57581-S7602. Arms Control Association, Analysis of A Quarter Century of Soviet Compliance Practices Under Arms Control Commitments: 1958-1983. Washington, DC: Arms Control Association, October 11, 1984, 54 pp. (pagination irregular). A rebuttal to the "GAC Report" prepared without access to the intelligence data utilized by the General Advisory Committee in 1983. Arms Control Association, "Perspectives: A Review of the Charges of Soviet SALT Violations," Arms Control Today, Vol. 10, No. 2, February 1976, pp. 2, 4-5. Bartley, Robert L., and William P. Kukewicz, "'Yellow Rain' and the Future of Arms Agreements," Foreign Affairs, No. 61, Spring 1983, pp. 805-826. Batten, James K., Arms Control and the Problem of Evasion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Center of International Studies, 1962. Becker, Abraham S., Strategic Breakout as a Soviet Policy Option, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-2097-ACDA, March 1977, 56 pp. (see section on USSR Military Deception) Beecher, William, "Brezhnev Termed Detente a Ruse, 1973 Report Said," The Boston Globe, February 11, 1979. Bethell, Tom, "The Mugger's Deal in Geneva," National Review, March 26, 1985, pp. 26-29. Biden, Joseph, "Possible Soviet Violations of Arms Control Agreements," Congressional Record, May 11, 1983, pp. S6469-S6472. Burns, Richard Dean, Donald Urgnidi, et al., Disarmament in Perspective: An Analysis of Selected Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements Between the World Wars, 1919-1939, Vol. I, Disarmament and the Peace Conference. Los Angeles, CA: California State Col lege at Los Angeles Foundation, July 1968, ACDA/RS-55, ch. 6, "German Disarmament and Allied Military Control, 1920-1927," pp. 152-190; ch. 7, "German Disarmament, 1927-1936: Compliance and Evasions," pp. 191-230. Vol. III, Limitations of Sea Power, ch. 2 0, pp. 134-138; 208; ch. 20, "Supervision and Control of the Washington Naval System," 1922-1941, pp. 249-284. Arms Control and Deceptions. - 2 - Arms Control and Deception Historical review of deceptive evasion of arms control obligations, 1919-1939. Vol. IV, "Conclusions," pp. 15-29. Burns, Richard Dean, "Inspection of the Mandates, 1919-1941," Pacific Historical Review, Vol. 37, November 1968, pp. 445-462. Burns, Richard Dean, "International Arms Inspection Policies Between World Wars, 1919-1934," Historian, Vol. 31, August 1969, pp. 583-603. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Panel on U.S. Security and the Future of Arms Control, Challenges for U.S. National Security: The Soviet Approach to Arms Control Verification, Problems and Prospects, Conclusions. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endow ment, 1983, esp. ch. 2. This analysis--published before completion of the "GAC Report" in November 1983--relies upon the February 1978 Vance Report in excusing Soviet arms control evasions. "Verification," pp. 25-68. Carter, Luther J., "Test Detection: Decoupling Theory Verified, But Does It Matter?" Science, Vol. 155, January 27, 1967, pp. 438-440. Codevilla, Angelo M., "Space, Intelligence, and Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. Dr. Codevilla, a former budget officer for the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, reviews vulnerabilities of intelligence collection systems used for arms control verification and suggests several remedies, including self-help measures to expan d the scope of unexpected intelligence collection. Cohen, Stuart A., "The Evolution of Soviet Views on SALT Verification: Implications for the Future," Paper, UCLA, 1979; revised in William C. Potter (ed.), Verification and SALT. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1980, pp. 49-75. A CIA analyst discusses Soviet maskirovka doctrine, and provides helpful references. The article quotes, without comment, the assertion by General Tolubko, (Commander of Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces) that the Soviets were not testing the SS-16 ICBM duri ng the SALT I Interim Agreement. Official U.S. reports on arms control compliance (1984, 1985) indicate Soviet SS-16 testing in 1972-1976, and "probable" deployment of the SS-16 ICBM thereafter. Cole, Leonard A., "Yellow Rain or Yellow Journalism," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists," August-September 1984, pp. 36-38. Courter, James, "Of Ostriches and Arms Controllers," National Security Record, No. 77, March 1985, p. 5. Courter, James, "Shooting the Messenger: Former arms negotiators avoid the bad news on Soviet treaty violations," Human Events, January 19, 1985, pp. 7-8. - 3 - Arms Control and Deception Courter, James, "What If We've Verified Soviet Treaty Violations?" Wall Street Journal, December 14, 1983, p. 30. Crommelin, Quentin, Jr., and David S. Sullivan, Soviet Military Supremacy: The Untold Facts about the New Danger to America. Washington, DC: Citizens' Foundation, 1985, ix + 164 pp. esp. section on "The Dynamics of Arms," pp. 27-48; ch. 1, "Dreamland-1985 ," pp. 57-66; ch. 3, "Disasters of Good Will," pp. 85-102; ch. 4, "Sword in the Balance," pp. 103-112; Appendix 2, "Representative Description of Soviet Arms Control Violations," pp. 137-147. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., "Chemical and Biological Warfare: The Covert Dimension," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 10, 1985, 28 pp.; revised ed. in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, 1986. Proposes that a Warsaw Pact-coordinated 20 year plan for chemical and biological warfare resulted in preparations for production, 1966-1971 _ and in expanded production, 1971-1976, that would be incompatible with the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention of 1972. Treats options for covert preparations and covert employment of weapons based upon advances in life sciences, including recombinant DNA, immunology, toxicology, neuropharmacology, and genetic engineering. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., and David S. Sullivan, "Intelligence, Warning, and Surprise," Armed Forces Journal International, December 1984, pp. 133-136. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., and H. Richard Lukens, "The Expanding Arena of Chemical-Biological Warfare," Strategic Review, Vol. 7, Fall 1984, pp. 71-80. Einhorn, Robert J., "Treaty Compliance," Foreign Policy, Spring 1982, pp. 29-47. Epstein, Edward J., "Incorporating Analysis of Foreign Governments' Deception into U.S. Analytical Systems," in Roy Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Analysis and Estimates. Washington, DC: National Strategy Information Center, 1980. Fascell, Dante B., "Arms Control and Compliance Issues," Congressional Record, October 11, 1984, pp. E4481-E4482. Fox, John P., "Britain and the Inter-Allied Military Commission of Control, 1925-26," Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 4, pp. 143-164, 1969. Garn, Jake, "The Suppression of Information Concerning Soviet SALT Violations by the U.S. Government," Policy Review, No. 9, Summer 1979, pp. 11-32. - 4 - Arms Control and Deception Gelb, Leslie H., "Keeping an Eye on Russia," New York Tunes Magazine, November 29, 1981. General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament, A Quarter Century of Soviet Compliance Practices Under Arms Control Commitments: 1958-1983. Summary, Washington, DC, October 10, 1984, ü + 15 + 2 pp. Completed in November 1983 and summarized in October 1984, the so-called "GAC Report" summarizes the Soviet record of compliance and noncompliance with arms control treaties, executive agreements, and binding unilateral commitments. Largely confirmed by i nteragency reports issued by President Reagan in January 1984 and February 1985. Recurring breaches imply deceptively facilitated treaty evasions, but deceptive activities are not specified. Graham, William R., "Soviet Deception and Arms Control," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, August 30, 1985, 22 pp. Graux, Lucien, Histoire des violations du Traite de Paix, Vol. I, 28 Juin 1919-24 - Septembre 1920, Paris: Editions G. Cres et Cie, 1921, 485 pp; Vol. II, 24 Septembre 1920 - 12 Novembre 1921, Paris: Editions G. Cres et Cie, 1922, 383 pp.; Vol. III, 12 No vembre 1921 - 31 Decembre 1922, Paris: Editions G. Cres et Cie, 1923, 512 pp.; Vol. IV, Janvier 1923 - Decembre 1926, Paris: Librairie Ancienne Honore Champion, 1927, 628 pp. This work, comprising over two thousand pages of text, provides a nearly contemporaneous commentary on evasions of the Versailles Treaty between its signing in 1919 and the Treaty of Locarno in 1925. Diplomatic deceptions and failures of response to Germa n rearmament are documented, but not indexed for convenient research. Gray, Colin S., "Moscow Is Cheating," Foreign Policy, Fall 1984, pp. 141-152. Gray, Colin S., "SALT I Aftermath: Have the Soviets Been Cheating?" Air Force Magazine, Vol. 58, November 1975, pp. 28-33. Halperin, Morton H., Arms Control and Inadvertent General War. Study Memo No. 6 W: Inst. Defense Analyses, 1962, 25 pp. Haraszti, Eva H., Treaty-Breakers or "Realpolitiker"? The Ang1o-German Naval Agreement of June 1935. Boppard am Rhein: Harald Boktl Verlag, 1974. Harris, William R., "Soviet Maskirovka and Arms Control Verification," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 35 pp. + Appendix. Revised ed. in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, forthcoming, 1986. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) - 5 - Arms Control and Deception An international lawyer involved in treaty verification compares six 20th century regimes for verification of arms control commitments: the Versailles regime of unlimited, foreign national inspection; a data exchange system in the 1930s; a limited inspect ion regime that discouraged agreements after World War II; verification by national technical means (NTMs); verification by NTMs aided by data exchanges and presumptions; and verification by NTMs with systematic countermeasures impeding verification. The author asserts that maskirovka induces arms control built around misperceptions; that the verification process has aided Soviet maskirovka programs; but that U.S. verification efforts have been remarkably successful as indicated by four declassified Presi dential reports (1983-1985) on Soviet noncompliance with arms control commitments. The author sees Soviet maskirovka programs at current levels of effort a threat to peace, with or without arms control. Harris, William R., "Breaches of Arms Control Obligations: Implications for the Future of Arms Control." Paper, Stanford University, September 22-24, 1983. In Congressional Record, September 30, 1983, revised as "Breaches of Arms Control Obligations and T heir Implications," in Richard F. Staar (ed.), Arms Control: Myth versus Reality. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1984, pp. 134-153. This September 1983 paper largely parallels the structure of the "GAC Report," but adds more detail on the possible significance of excess SS-7 launchers for a Soviet strategic reserve force of SS-9 and SS-11 ICBM missiles at other than declared ICBM silo launchers. Harris, William R., "A SALT Safeguards Program: Coping with Soviet Deception Under Strategic Arms Agreements," The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-6388, September 1979. Revised as Ch. 7 in William C. Potter (ed.), Verification and SALT. Boulde r, C0: Westview Press, 1980, pp. 129-141. (see section on Countering Deception) Proposes a verification safeguards program to augment unexpected intelligence collection and analysis; and proposes research and development safeguards to hedge against Soviet breakout from arms control limitations. Historical Evaluation and Research Organization, Responses to Violations of Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements: Study "Riposte". Washington, DC: Historical Evaluation and Research Organization, April 12, 1964. Report, Vol. 1, esp. ch. 8, "Patterns of Treaty Violations," pp. 87-101; ch. 9, "Patterns of Responses," pp. 103-116. Hoehn, William E., Clandestine Diversion of Source Nuclear Materials in a Power Reactor, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-3618, June 1967, 7 pp. Humphrey, Gordon J., "Analysis and Compliance Enforcement in SALT Verification." Ch. 6 in William C. Potter (ed.), Verification and SALT. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1980, pp. 111-127; and International Security Review, Vol. 5, No. 1, Spring 1980, pp. 1- 26. - 6 - Arms Control and Deception Reflects views of legislative aide, David S. Sullivan, who drafted for Senator Humphrey. Ikle, Fred C., "After Detection - What?" Foreign Affairs, Vol. 39, No. 2, 1961, pp. 208-220. Ikle, Fred C., The Evasion of Arms Control Agreements: Deterrence vs. Detection. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-2000, June 1960. "Is Russia violating arms pacts," Foreign Report [London], April 30, 1981, pp. 1-2. Katz, Amrom H., Verification and SALT: The State of the Art and the Art of the State. Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation, 1979. An urbane and humorous tour of the institutions and concepts of arms control verification. Mr. Katz, a former Assistant Director for _ Verification of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, reminds readers of the symbiotic relationship between the observed and the observer. Katz, Amrom H., "After Detection - So What?" In Richard F. Staar (ed.), Arms Control: Myth versus Reality. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1984, pp. 166-175. Katz, Amrom H., Hiders and Finders: An Approach to Inspection and Evasion Technology. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-2432, reported in E.W. LeFevr (ed.), Arms and Arms Control. New York, NY: Praeger, 1962, pp. 199-207; excerpted in Bullet in of the Atlantic Scientists, Vol. 17, December 1961, pp. 423-424. Kemp, Jack, "The New Arms Talks in a Congressional Perspective," Strategic Review, Winter 1985, pp. 9-14, at "Compliance," pp. 11-12. Kemp, Jack, "The SS-19 and the New Soviet ICBMs Vis-à-vis SALT II," Congressional Record, August 2, 1979, pp. E4076-4077. Kettelle, John D., "Information Management in Arms Control Negotiations," in Rudolf Avenhaus and Reiner K. Huber (eds.), Quantitative Assessments in Arms Control. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1984, pp. 445-4- . This paper illustrates computer-aided modeling of incentives for deception during arms control negotiations. Kukewicz, William, "Beyond 'Yellow Rain'," Wall Street Journal, seven-part series, April 25-May 18, 1984. Laird, Melvin R., "Arms Control: The Russians Are Cheating!" Reader's Digest, Vol. 111, No. 5, December 1977, pp. 97-101. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) 7 - Arms Control and Deception Laird, Melvin R., "Is This Detente?", Reader's Digest, July 1975, pp. 54-57. Laird, Melvin R., "Arms Control: The Russians Are Cheating!" Reader's Digest, December 1977. Leghorn, Richard S., "The Problem of Accidental War," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 14, June 1958, pp. 205-209. Levitt, Geoffrey, "Problems in the Verification and Enforcement of SALT Agreements in Light of the Record of Soviet Compliance with SALT I," Harvard International Law Journal, No. 22, Spring 1981, pp. 379-404. Lodal, Jan M., "Verifying SALT," Foreign Policy, No. 24, Fall 1976, pp. 40-64. Longstreth, Thomas K., "Report aims to sabotage arms control: a survey of Soviet treaty compliance by the General Advisory Committee to the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency could threaten the future of the arms control process by raising red herrings a nd obscuring serious compliance concerns," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, No. 41, January 1985, pp. 29-34. Marshall, Charles Burton, "Arms Control: History and Theory," in Richard F. Staar (ed.), Arms Control: Myth versus Reality. Stanford, CA: Hoover Foundation Press, 1984, pp. 180-188 Mathtech, Inc., Covert Rearmament in Germany, 1919-1939, 1979. See Whaley, Covert German Rearmament: 1919-1939. McBride, James H., The Test Ban Treaty: Military, Technological and Political Implications. Chicago, IL: Regnery, 1967, 197 pp., esp. chapter on "Clandestine testing and its detection." McClure, James, "Covert Strategic Reserve ICBM Force: Another Soviet SALT II Violation," March 1984, 37 pp. McClure, James, "Arms Control Policy: Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going?" Congressional Record, April 14, 1983, pp. 54640-54648. McClure, James, "Conclusive Support for President Reagan 's Recent Accusation That the Soviets Are Violating SALT II by Flight-Testing Two New ICBMs," Congressional Record, Vol. 129, March 23, 1983., McClure, James, "Deploying the MX as a Countermeasure Against Soviet SS-19 Heavy Deployment Circumventing SALT I," Congressional Record, May 25, 1983, p. S7444 et seq. McClure, James, "Soviet Violations of Arms Control Agreements," Congressional Record, May 19, 1983, pp. 57134-57139; February 1, 1984, Vol. 130. - 8 - Arms Control and Deception McGuire, Martin C., Secrecy and the Arms Race: A Theory of the Accumulation of Strategic Weapons and How Secrecy Affects It. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965, 249 pp. Moore, Captain John, "Not So Chicken Kiev," Navy International, November 1976. Morgan, J.H., Assize of Arms: The Disarmament of Germany and Her Rearmament (1919-1939). New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1946. This is perhaps the most important study of arms control verification, counter-control of the Inter-Allied Commission of Control, and concealment of noncompliance with provisions of the Versailles Treaty. Contains important appendix documents. For a fulle r context, Whaley, Covert Rearmament in Germany, 1919-1939. Mutz, Reinhard, "MBFR: Problems and Lessons," in Rudolf Avenhaus and Reiner K. Huber (eds.), Quantitative Assessments in Arms Control. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1984, pp. 93-128. This article provides an historical context for consideration of Warsaw Pact database deception in Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction (MBFR) negotiations. Neild, Robert, "Cheating in a Disarmed World," in Studies in Disarmament and Arms Control, Adelphi Paper No. 2. London: Institute for Strategic Studies, 1961; Disarmament and Arms Control, Vol. 1, Autumn 1963, pp. 133-143. O'Sullivan, Thomas C., "Disadvantages of Reliable Inspection," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, No. 19, March 1963, pp. 18-19. Owens, MacKubin T., Jr., "Arms Control: Tracking Soviet Violations," Journal of Contemporary Studies, Fall 1983, pp. 101-113. Phelps, John, "Causes of Accidental War," Survival, No. 5, July-August 1963, pp. 176-179. Phelps, John B., "The Danger of Accidental War," Bull, Atomic Scientists, April 1961. Phelps, John B., Bruce Russett, Mathew Sands, and Charles Schwartz, Studies on Accidental War. Study FAIR, Vol. 2, Research Paper P-6. W: Institute for Defense Analyses, May 1963. Pike, John E., and Jonathan Rich, "Charges of Treaty Violations: Much Less Than Meets the Eye," P.A.S. Public Interest Report, No. 37, March 1984, pp. 1-2, 18-20. Pfaltzgraff, Robert L., Jr., Uri Ra'anan, and Warren Milberg (eds.), Intelligence Policy and National Security. London: The Macmillan Press, 1981, 318 pp. - 9 ° Arms Control and Deception Papers from a 1979 Conference hosted by the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. The overall Conference title was "Intelligence: Deception and Surprise," but the deception receives only cursory treatment. The participants came from government, academe, a nd the private sector. Authors: R.V.Jones, Roberta Wohlstetter, Ithiel de Sola Pool, John Erickson, Richard Pipes, William Colby, Amrom Katz, Richard Betts, John Roche, and Thomas Latimer. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Potter, William C. (ed.), Verification and SALT: The Challenge of Strategic Deception. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1980, 256 pp. A comprehensive analysis of U.S. verification capabilities and the problems and prospects of assessing Soviet compliance with strategic arms control agreements. The authors shed light on the technology of strategic reconnaissance, the politics of verifica tion, and the potential for Soviet strategic deception. Reagan, Ronald, Report to the Congress on Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control Agreements, Washington, DC, January 23, 1984, 6 pp. Summarizes Soviet SALT noncompliance concerns, two months after completion of the GAC Report. Reagan, Ronald, Report to the Congress on Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control Agreements, Washington, DC, February 1, 1985, 9 pp. in Congressional Record, March 5, 1985, pp. S2531-52534. Updates an Interagency review of Soviet arms control compliance issues. The findings of the two Inter-Agency studies and the GAC Report are identical or similar in most respects. "Report on Soviet SALT Treaty Violations," Congressional Record, October 11, 1984, pp. S14506-S14531. Robinson, Clarence, "Another SALT Violation Spotted," Aviation Week and Space Technology, May 31, 1976, pp. 12-13. Safire, William, "Deception Managers," New York Times, August 6, 1981, p. 23. Samuel, Peter, "Soviet Germ War Threat," Washington Inquirer, August 23, 1985, p. 1. Samuel, Peter, "Germ warfare plants strung across Soviet Union, report reveals 9 sites produce, store 'yellow rain'; toxins said used on rebels and prisoners," New York City Tribune, August 2, 1985, p. 1. Samuel, Peter, "Why the U.S. Insists on On-Site Checks of Nuclear Testing," Defense Week, Vol. 6, No. 52, August 5, 1985, pp. 1,7. - 10 - Arms Control and Deception "Soviet test-ban violations," Foreign Report, London, May 9, 1985, pp. 1-2. Staar, Richard F., "Deception at MBFR: A Case Study," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 14 pp. Revised ed. in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, forthcoming, 1986. A former U.S. ambassador to the Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction (MBFR) talks in Vienna illustrates Soviet negotiating tactics, including deception. He claims that not only did the Warsaw Pact misrepresent force levels that, if accepted, would have exp anded the manpower advantage of the Eastern states had agreement been reached, but further, during a period from 1965 to 1980, the Warsaw Pact-NATO ratio of weapon systems (excluded from negotiations) increased (by one public estimate) from about 1.5 to 1 to 4.4 to 2. Examples of personal and tactical deception are provided. Staar, Richard F. (ed.), "The MBFR Process and Its Prospects," Arms Control: Myth Versus Reality. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1984, pp. 47-58. Author reviews Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction (MBFR) arms control negotiations. Negotiations began in 1973 between NATO and Warsaw Treaty Organization representatives. Ambassador Staar, for a time the U.S. representative to the MBFR talks, alludes to Soviet under representation of Warsaw Pact force levels during MBFR talks. Stone, Jeremy J., "Can the Communists Deceive Us?" -In Abram Chayes and Jerome B. Wiesner (eds.), ABM: An Evaluation of the Decision to Deploy an Antiballistic Missile System. New York, Evanston, and London: Harper & Row, 1969, pp. 193-198. Argues that U.S. verification capabilities are too reliable for significant Soviet ABM breakout without U.S. warning. For post mortems, see the 1984 summary of the November 1983 GAC Report, and Interagency Verification studies released by the White House in 1984 and 1985. Storella, Mark C., Poisoning Arms Control: The Soviet Union and Chemical/Biological Warfare. Boston, MA: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., June 1984. Sullivan, David S., "Soviet Negotiating Deception and Treaty Violations in Arms Control." Paper, September 1985, 32 pp. Sullivan, David S., "Unknown Danger: The New Soviet Missile Gaps." Paper, September 1985, 32 pp. Sullivan, David S., The Bitter Fruit of Salt: A Record of Soviet Duplicity, Stanford Research Institute International Strategic Studies Center. Houston, TX: Texas Policy Institute, 1981, 105 pp. - 11 - Arms Control and Deception This monograph focuses upon the core issues of U.S.-Soviet relations and the role the author believed that SALT I and SALT II played in diminishing America's position vis-à-vis the Soviet Union and the world at large. Concludes that arms control treaties with the Soviet Union have undermined American security. Gives a chronological listing of the history of major Soviet treaty violations. Sullivan, David S., "Lessons Learned from SALT I & II: New Objectives for SALT III, International Security Review, Vol. VI, No. III, Fall 1981, pp. 355-386. A discussion of deception on the part of the Soviets in the SALT I and SALT II negotiations, in which, according to the author, the terms were unequal, to the disadvantage of the U.S. and the advantage of the Soviets. Sullivan, David S., "Of Detente and Duplicity," Strategic Review, Summer 1981, pp. 70-73. Sullivan, David S., "Evaluating US Intelligence Estimates." In Roy Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Analysis and Estimates. Washington, DC: National Strategy Information Center, Vol. 312, 1980, p. 445. Sullivan argues that the steady pace of Soviet ICBM construction during the 1960s should have alerted U.S. intelligence to Soviet force objectives. Did Soviet deception contribute to the systematic underestimations of Soviet rocket force deployment plans? (See W.R. Harris for a still disputed explanation.) Sullivan, David S., "Soviet Union Cheated U.S. on SALT I and SALT II; Lied About KBMs, Subs and Backfire Bomber," Battle Line, Vol. 14, January-February 1980, pp. 3-5. Sullivan, David S., Soviet SALT Deception. Washington, DC: Coalition for Peace Through Strength, December 1979. Sullivan, David S., "A SALT Debate: Continued Soviet Deceptions," Strategic Review, Vol. 7, No. 4, Fall 1979, pp. 29-38; and Congressional Record, Vol. 125, No. 155, November 6, 1979, pp. 516021-516025. Sullivan, David S., "The Legacy of SALT I: Soviet Deception and U.S. Retreat," Strategic Review, Vol. 7, Winter 1979, pp. 26-41; reported in Congressional Record, Vol. 125, November 6, 1979, pp. S16013-16025. An account of evidence of Soviet deception in the SALT negotiations, spanning SALT I and SALT II, and related both to Soviet negotiating behavior and operation of Soviet strategic forces. Quotes articles from Strategic Review indicating that the Soviets d eceived the U.S. on each of the three main issues: constraints on ICBM and silo size increases, constraints on SLBMs, and constraints on mobile ICBMs. - 12 - Arms Control and Deception Symms, Steven, "Soviet Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty Violations," Congressional Record, June 20, 1984, pp. S7670-57691. Symms, Steven, and John East, "SALT II Was Not in the National Security Interest of the United States," Congressional Record, June 20, 1984, pp. 57670-S7691. Symms, Steven, and David S. Sullivan, "Soviet Violations of Existing Arms Control treaties May Make Future Treaties Ineffective," in Rudolf Avenhaus and Reiner K. Huber (eds.), Quantitative Assessments in Arms Control. New York and London: Plenum Press, 1 984, pp. 413-444; in Congressional Record, March 15, 1983, pp. S2946-S2959. Symms, Steven, "The Bitter Fruit of SALT," Congressional Record, May 13, 1982, pp. 55174-5175. Szalita, Alberta B., "Some Comments on Psychological Aspects of Evasion and Disarmament," in Seymour Melman (ed.), Inspection for Disarmament. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1958, pp. 251-260. Szulc, Tad, "Have We Been Had? Soviet Violations of the SALT Deal," The New Republic, June 7, 1975, pp. 11-15. Teller, Edward, "The Feasibility of Arms Control and the Principle of Openness," Daedalus, Vol. 89, Fall 1960, pp. 781-799. Toth, Robert C., "Soviet Missile Trick Suspected; SS-20 Move May Be Bid to Sway Dutch, U.S. Says," Los Angeles Times, October 3, 1985, pp. 1, 24. "Trickery on Chemical War," Washington Star, June 5, 1978. Tritten, James J., "Arms Control Compliance: The Soviet Record." Paper. Los Angeles, CA: University of Southern California, 1984, 37 pp., abridged as "Their Broken Promises," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 110, August 1984, pp. 55-61. Tucker, Jonathan B., "Gene Wars," Foreign Policy, Vol. 57, Winter 1984/1985, pp. 58-79. Ulsamer, Edgar, "SALT IIs Gray Area Weapon Systems," Air Force Magazine, No. 59, pp. 80-85, July 1976. Ulsamer, Edgar, "Soviet Arms Cheating Revealed," Air Force Magazine, December 1984, pp. 20, 23-24. U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, "Unclassified Compliance Briefing." Washington, DC, September 1985. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Security and Arms Control: The Search for a More Stable Peace. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, October 1984, "Compliance," pp. 24-25. - 13 - Arms Control and Deception U.S. Department of State, Chemical Weapons Use in Southeast Asia and Afghanistan, Current Policy No. 553, Washington, DC, Bureau of Public Affairs, Department of State, February 21, 1984. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Verification of SALT II Agreements, Washington, DC, Special Report 56, August 1979, 6 pp. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Compliance With SALT One Agreements, Selected Documents, No. 7, February 21, 1978; reprinted in Congressional Record, February 28, 1978, pp. S2553-S2556. U.S. House of Representatives, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, The Sverdlovsk Incident: Soviet Compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention? Hearings, 96th Cong. 2d Sess., May 29, 1980. U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Armed Services, Hearings: Fall House Consideration of Overall National Security Programs and Related Budget Requirements, 94th Congress, 1st Sess. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1975, pp. 235-278. U.S. Senate, Committee on Appropriations, Hearings: SALT II Violations, 98th Congress, 2d Sess., 1984, 109 pp. U.S. Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Hearings: Soviet Compliance With Certain Provisions of the 1972 SALT I Agreements, 94th Congress, 1st Sess. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1975, 22 pp. Van Cleave, William R., et al., Why is the Arms Control Association against Arms Control? A Reply to ACA's "Analysis of a Quarter Century of Soviet Compliance Practices under Arms Control Commitments: 1958-1983." Los Angeles: Defense and Strategic Studies Program, University of Southern California, March 15, 1985. Pagination varies. Rebuts Arms Control Association critique of the unclassified version of the "GAC Report." Elucidates some Soviet arms control deception practices. Velichov, E.P., "A Soviet Scientist's Dim View of Space Weapons; An effective 'Star Wars' antimissile system is just a pipe dream," Washington Post, June 24, 1984, p. B5. Wainhouse, David W., et al., Alternative Methods for Dealing With Breaches of Arms Control Agreements. Washington, DC: School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Vol. IV, April 1968, Report ACDA/IR-107, chapter on "The Enforcement of German Disarmament after World War I," sections on "Clandestine Evasions," pp. 155-174, and "The Extent of Continuing Evasions," pp. 181-190. Wallop, Malcolm, "Soviet Violations of Arms Control Agreements: So What?" Strategic Review, Summer 1983, pp. 11-20. - 14 - Arms Control and Deception Wark, Wesley K., The Ultimate Enemy: British Intelligence and Nazi Germany, 1933-1939. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1985. This is an important work, which utilizes declassified British intelligence records and German archives. It assesses the interplay between British misconceptions, German deception, arms control agreements, strategic intelligence assessments and the policy of appeasement. "Deception," sparingly treated, is indicated in the index. Wark, Wesley, K., "Baltic Myths and Submarine Bogeys: British Naval Intelligence and Nazi Germany, 1933-1939," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 6, 1983, pp. 60-81. Weiss, Seymour, "The Case Against Arms Control," Commentary, November 1984, pp. 19-23. Whaley, Barton, et al., Covert German Rearmament, 1919-1939: Deception and Misperception. Frederick, MD: University Publications of America, 1985, 160 pp. The story of German disarmament evasion has never been told in its entirety. This monograph is the preliminary effort to survey this story of evasion and inspection, espionage and counterespionage, illusion and deception. Chapter I is a summary of the rep ort and sets forth the major conclusions drawn from the analysis. It describes Germany's process of rearmament and how it went through four distinct phases: Phase I, the post-Versailles disarmament (Chapter II); Phase II, a period of covert arms evasion b ut little actual buildup spans 1920-1926, ending with the departure of the Allied Control Commission (Chapter III); Phase III, a period of clandestine rearmament beginning in 1927 and ending in 1935 when Hitler took the political decision to abrogate the Versailles Treaty and display German rearmament publicly (Chapter IV); and Phase IV, a period of overt rearmament and bluff in which the nature of deception shifted from deliberate understatement to deliberate overstatement (Chapter V). Of significant interest is the lengthy and successful covert German-Soviet military collaboration (Chapter VI). The international naval weapons cheating in connection with the Washington Naval Limitation Agreement of 1922 as summarized in Chapter VII is o f special interest. See also Mihalka, German Strategic Deception in the 19306 (1980). Whaley, Barton, "Covert Rearmament in Germany, 1919-1939," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, pp. 3-27. Summarizes findings of Whaley's 1979 monograph and its 1985 reprint. - 15 - Arms Control and Deception Wildhorn, Sorrel, The Potentialities of Deception As a Survival Aid for a Retaliatory Missile Force, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, RM-3355-PR, November 1962, xiii + 39 pp. A general assessment of the potentialities of deception as a survival aid for a retaliatory missile force. The discussion is aimed at stimulating planners, operations analysts, and weapon designers towards investigation of specific deception schemes that might promise substantial payoffs. It is part of a study of force structure for general war. Deception measures show promise as an alternative method to such concepts as hardening, mobility, dispersal, rapid response, and active defense. Wilds, Thomas, "How Japan Fortified the Mandated Islands," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 81, April 1955, pp. 401-407. Based upon World War II historical monograph of 112 pp. prepared for the U.S. Army Office of the Chief of Military History. Zumwalt, Elmo R., "Zumwalt Disputes Policy on SALT," Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 19, 1976, pp. 46-50. - 16 - Behavior of Targets of Deception BEHAVIOR OF TARGETS OF DECEPTION Asch, Solomon E., "Studies of Independence and Conformity: I. A Minority of One Against a Unanimous Majority," Psychological Monographs, Vol. 70, 1956, pp. 1-70. Axelrod, Robert, "The Rational Timing of Surprise," World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 2, January 1979, pp. 228-246. The problem addressed by this paper is when a resource for surprise should be exploited. The first part of the paper shows how broad the problem is in the area of international relations in general and political-military affairs in particular. The second part develops a rational choice model to treat the problem. The third section discusses the policy implications of the model. Bailey, Geoffrey [pseud.] , The Conspirators. New York: Harper & Bros., 1960, 306 pp. A carefully researched British study of the battle of wits between Russian emigre organizations and the Soviet secret police in the 1920s and 1930s. Ball, Desmond, Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program and the Kennedy Administration. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1980. Beichman, Arnold, "Soviet Active Measures and Democratic Culture," Paper, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA: Naval Post Graduate School, September 1985, 33 pp. (see section on USSR Political Deception) This paper treats concepts of "moral neutrality" within academic centers and a "high culture" reflected in U.S. media that, in the author's view, raise the suspectibility of public opinion and elected officials to Soviet disinformation. The author sees tr ade unions and the working class as among the few groups immunized against the "left mystique" about which the author writes. The paper proposes Congressional and academic efforts to publicize the scope and role of Soviet active measures. Bennike, Helge, "Hvis Danmark havde mobiliseret den 4. April 1940 og Norge fulgt efter," Samtiden, Vol. 17, 1958, pp. 103-118. Berezkin, A., "On Controlling the Actions of an Opponent," Voyennaia Mysl' [Military Thought], No. 11, 1972, pp. 91-94. Translated in F815, FPD 0049/73. An important conceptual statement: See also the work by LeFevr. Betts, Richard K., "Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable," World Politics, January 1979, pp. 61-87. - 17 - Behavior of Targets of Deception Author sets forth comprehensively the principles and theories of why intelligence failures abound. He explores conceptual approaches to intelligence failure, differentiation of intelligence problems, insurmountable obstacles to accurate assessment, and li mitations of solutions proposed by critics. Blair, David, "Seizing Power: Deception in the Nicaraguan Revolution," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 30 pp. Bottome, Edgar, The Missile Gap: A Study of the Formation of Military and Political Policy, Fairleigh Dickinson University Press, 1971. Brausch, Gerd, "Sedan 1940: Deuxieme Bureau and strategische Uberraschung," Militargeschichtliche Mitteilungen [Freiburg], No. 2, 1967, pp. 15-92. Includes 470 footnotes. Meticulous historiographical and critical survey of French Intelligence before the surprise attack of May 10, 1940, and in the first five days of war. Highlights both strategic and order-of-battle failures, while criticizing the preceding literature. Fail s to emphasize the role of German deception, covered in Whaley's Stratagem (1969). Brody, Richard I., "Deception, Spoofs, and Response to Ambiguous Warning." Paper, Marina Del Rey, CA: Pan Heuristics, 1985, 30 pp. Cantril, H. Hadley, with Hazel Gaudet and Herta Herzog. The Invasion from Mars: A Study in the Psychology of Panic. New York: Harper, 1966. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1940, xv + 228 pp.; 2d ed., 1947, xv + 224 pp. Chernavin, Victor, "What the Allies Knew of the German Military Plan Before the Outbreak of the Great War," Army Quarterly [London], Vol. 19, 1935, pp. 287-296. Major General Chernavin, formerly of the Imperial Russian General Staff, alleges that Russian intelligence on the "Schlieffen Plan" of 1905, confirmed in many respects by various sources between 1905 and 1909, was transmitted to French intelligence but di sregarded in shaping French defense plans. Chernavin concludes: "[The Allies] were holding in their hands the key to the fundamental problem of the future war--the plan of the enemy--but this providential gift was never made use of." Corcoran, Thomas G., Jr., "American Intelligence in the Cuban Missile Crisis." Cambridge, MA: May 1967, 46 pp. multilithed. Courter, James, "Of ostriches and former arms-treaty negotiators," New York Times, March 20, 1985, p. 1B. - 18 - Behavior of Targets of Deception Daniel, Donald C., and Katherine L. Herbig, "Propositions on Military Deception," The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982. Also in Daniel and Herbig, Strategic Military Deception, New York: Pergamon Press, 1982, 378 pp. Dilkes, David, "Appeasement and Intelligence," in David Dilkes, Retreat from Power. London: Macmillan, Vol. I, pp. 136-169. Druzhinin, V.V., and D.S. Kontorov, Voprosy Voennoi Sistemotekniki. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1978. Erickson, John, "Threat Identification and Strategic Appraisal by the Soviet Union, 1930-1941." Ch. 13 in E.R. May (ed.), Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984, pp. 375-42 3. Fillenbaum, S., "Prior deception and subsequent experimental performance: the 'faithful' subject," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 4, 1966, pp. 532-537. Freedman, Lawrence, U.S. Intelligence and the Soviet Strategic Threat. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1977, 235 pp. Sets forth the author's understanding of the U.S. Intelligence Community and its estimating process. Discusses various aspects of the "Soviet threat" from the early "missile gap" through the Ford Administration. Gazit, Shlomo, "Estimating and Fortune-Telling in Intelligence 4;ork," International Security, Vol. 4, Spring 1980, pp. 36-56. Goaster, H. Col. L. le., "L'action des Forces Aeriennes," RHDGM, No. 10-11, June 1953, pp. 135-149, esp. pp. 144-145 (French alerts of November 1939, January and April 1940, May 10, 1940). Grigorenko, Petr Grigorevich, Memoirs. New York, NY: Norton, 1982, ch. 10, "Intelligence Summary Number Eight," pp. 114-121 (June 22, 1941) (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Grigorenko, Petr Grigorevich, The Grigorenko Papers. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1976, ch. 1, pp. 7-51 (June 11, 1941). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Harris, William R., "Soviet Maskirovka and Arms Control Verification," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. (See section on Arms Control and Deception.) Heuer, Richards J. Jr., "Soviet Organization and Doctrine for Strategic Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. Forthcoming in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, 1986. - 19 - Behavior of Targets of Deception This paper comes as close as any other to providing a CIA alumnus' views on the "operational code" (in Nathan Leites' terms) of the CIA and the "operational code" of the KGB with regard to the limits of permissible KGB release of authentic information. Th is is an important article in understanding why certain intelligence services regard most human intelligence reporting as virtually invulnerable to deception. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., Strategic Deception: A Psychological Perspective, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif. A paper presented at the 21st Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Los A ngeles, Calif., 1981. The paper is divided into three sections: (1) perceptual biases; (2) cognitive biases; and (3) countering deception. Hinsley, F.H., et al., British Intelligence in the Second World War. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, Vol. I, 1979, pp. 75, 228-229, 299-300, 308-309. Ionov, Major General M.D., "On the Methods of Influencing an Opponent's Decisions," Military Thought, 1971, No. 23, pp. 58-66. JPRS transl; No. 12, December 1971, Translation in Foreign Press Digest No. 0003, January 17, 1974. Ivanov, D.A., B.P. Saveleev, and Shemnskii, Osnovy Upravlenie Voiskammi [Fundamentals of Tactical Command and Control]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1971. Translated by U.S. Air Force, Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office, 1984. Jacobsen, Hans-Adolf, "10 Januar 40: Die Affare Mechlin," Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau, Vol. 4, 1954, pp. 497-515 (May 10, 1940). An authority on the German offensive of 1940, editor of a documentary collection (1956) and author of a survey, Fall Gelb (1957), analyzes the advance capture of German planning documents. See also Vanwelkenhuyzen. Khvostov, V., and A. Grylev, "Nakanune Velikoi Otechestvennoi Voinuy [On the Eve of the Great Patriotic War.], [in Russian] Kommunist, No. 12, August 1968, pp. 56-71. English summary as "A New Account of the Events That Led Up to June 22, 1941; Kremlin Di d Not Ignore Warnings, Communist Magazine Maintains," Current Abstracts of the Soviet Press, Vol. 1, September 1968, pp. 3-4. Knorr, Klaus, "Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles," World Politics, Vol. 16, April 1964, pp. 455-467 (Cuba II). A knowledgeable scholar provides data and criticisms respecting the National Intelligence Estimate of September 19, 1962. - 20 - Behavior of Targets of Deception Koeltz, Louis, "Les plans francais et la Belgique en 1939-40," Revue Gen. Belge, May 1960, pp. 63-73 (10 May 1940). Laird, Melvin, "Arms Control: the Russians Are Cheating!" Reader's Digest, Vol. 111, No. 5, December 1,977, pp. 97-101. (See section on Arms Control and Deception.) Licklider, Roy E., "The Missile Gap Controversy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 85, December 1970, pp. 600-615. Surveys the rise and fall of various "missile gaps" in U.S. estimates of Soviet developments. See Albert Wohlstetter for more precise data on ICBM force levels. Liss, Ulrich, "Die Tatigkeit des Franzosischen 2. Bureau im Westfeldzug 1939/40," Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau, Vol. 10, May 1960, pp. 267-278 (10 May 1940). Luttwak, Edward N., "Churchill and Us," Commentary, June 1977, pp. 44-49. A critique of Winston Churchill, and of what the author regards as the neo-appeasement policies of the 1973s, compared to those of the 1930s from his preachings for an accelerated British rearmament in the House of Commons, where he falters, to memorandum s to senior officials and members of the government based on information leaked to him by self interested sources in the aircraft-c industry and in public speeches. Churchill misconceived the armaments question and the true intentions of the new Germany b ecause he failed to understand the irreversible change that had altered the nature of international politics since his youth. McNamara, Robert S., "The Military Role of Nuclear Weapons: Perceptions and Misperceptions," Foreign Affairs, Fall 1983, pp. 59-80. McNamara concludes that nuclear weapons serve no military purpose whatsoever; hence, this article suggests that deception regarding military utility of nuclear weapons was an element of U.S. defense policy in the 1960s. Michiels, Oscar, 18 jours de guerre en Belgique, Ed. Berger-Levrault, 1947, ch. 1, s. 6, "Le contre-espionnage," 46-8; s. 7, "Inconvenients resultant dune mobilisation prolongee," 49-52; s. 8, "Les alertes du 11 nov. 1939 et du 13 jan. 1940," 53-4; ch. 2, x. 1, "Le commandement a-t-il ete surpris?" May 10, 1940, pp. 58-63. Montagu, Ewen [Edward Samuel], The Man Who Never Was, at ch. 12, "The German Intelligence Service Plays Its Part," pp. 123-138; ch. 13, "The German High Command Gets Busy," pp. 139-150; App. 2, pp. 157-160. Philadelphia, PA: J.B. Lippincott, 1954, rev. ed . 1967, 160 pp. (See section on Historical Studies.) - 21 - Behavior of Targets of Deception The story of the classic British deception Operation Mincemeat prior to the 1943 Allied invasion of Sicily in World War II. Illustrates exemplary intelligence planning with respect to documentation, both personal and official, and estimate of German react ions. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Navrozov, Lev, "What the CIA Knows About Russia," Commentary, Part II, Main Edition, September 8, 1978, p. 51. An account of misinformation about the Soviet Union, including economic statistics and defense spending, fed to Congress by the CIA. Navrozov suggests that even the experts demonstrate a lack of knowledge about the Soviets and cannot separate facts from p ropaganda. With only modest access to closed societies, U.S. intelligence is vulnerable to deception. Noorani, A.G., Our Credulity and Negligence. Bombay, India: Ramdas G. Bhatkal, 1963, 167 pp. (Indian misestimates of China, 1962). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Place, Richard, "The Self-Deception of the Strong: France on the Eve of the War of the League of Augsburg," French Historical Studies, Vol. 6, Fall 1970, pp. 459-473. (See sections on Historical Studies and Surprise Attack and Deception.) French underestimation of German strength and logistic capabilities before invasion of Rhineland, September 1688. Purves, James Grant, "British Estimates of German Military Strength and Intentions, 1934-1939." M.A. thesis, History, McGill University, August 1966, iv + 256 pp. Based upon published sources only; subject to corrections based on now open official archives. Rivet, General, "Etions-nous renseignes en mai 1940?" Revue de Defense Nationale, Vol. 6, June 1950, pp. 636-648; July 1950, pp. 24-39. Robinson, Clarence, "SALT 'Hold' Said to H.T. Cabinet," Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 5, 1976, p. 12. Robinson, Clarence, "Kissinger Deliberately Concealing SALT Violations, Zumwalt Claims," Aviation Week & Space Technology, December 8, 1975, p. 13. Seeley, Thomas D., Joan W. Nowicke, Matthew Meselson, Jeanne Guillemin, and Pongthep Akratanakul, "Yellow Rain," Scientific American, September 1985, pp. 178ff. Yellow rain is a yellow substance found on rocks and leaves in Southeast Asia and is alleged to be an agent of chemical war. The authors claim that this material is indistinguishable from the feces of indigenous honeybees. - 22 - Behavior of Targets of Deception Sloss, Leon, "Deception as a Challenge to U.S. Strategic Targeting and War Planning," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 28 pp. Addresses effects of Soviet denial and deception efforts upon strategic targeting. Imprecisely located targets and low observability targets complicate targeting; the author treats asymmetries in NATO and Warsaw Pact abilities to deny useful targeting inf ormation and to deploy mobile systems. Snyder, Jack L., Rationality at the Brink: The Role of Cognitive Processes in Failures of Deterrence, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, P-5740, October 1976, 42 pp. An analysis of two case studies in light of cognitive theory reemphasizes the dangers of a compulsion strategy. It suggests that, in situations structured along the lines of a probable nuclear confrontation, there are "regularities of human thought" which tend to lead decision makers away from seeing the trade-offs which must be seen if deterrence is to work. Sorokin, Pitirim A., "Illusions and Self-Deception," Mens en Maatschappij, No. 43, January-February 1968, pp. 3-12. Stech, Frank J., "Self-Deception: The Other Side of the Coin," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 3, Summer 1980, pp. 130-140. Sterling, Claire, The Time of the Assassins: Anatomy of an Investigation. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1984, 264 PP. Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "Die Krise vom Januar 1940," Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau, Vol. 5, February 1955, pp. 66-90. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "Die Niederlande and der 'Alarm' im Januar 1940," Vierteljahrshefte fur Zeitgeschichte [Stuttgart], Vol. VIII January 1960, pp. 17-36 (10 May 1940); rev. and trans. as "Het alarm van januari 1940 in Nederland," in Pierre de Meyere ( ed.), Bijdragen tot de Geschiedenis van de tweede Wereldoorlog [Brussels], No. 1, 1967, pp. 127-181; excerpted and trans. as "L'alerte de janvier 1940 aux Pays-Bas," Revue d'histoire diplomatique [Paris], Vol. 82 April-June 1968, pp. 97-133. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Surveying relevant secondary sources, citing unpublished archival materials and providing useful source notes, this piece contributes to an understanding of Dutch, Belgian and French intelligence failings, May 10, 1940. Lacks an appreciation of German dec eption planning, found in Barton Whaley's Stratagem. Criticized by Brausch. - 23 - Behavior of Targets of Deception Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "La drole de guerre en Belgique: Des plans tombes du ciel," in Robert Aron (ed.), Histoire de notre temps; Toute la verite. Paris: Plon, No. 2, 1967, pp. 149-181 (10 May 1940). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "L'alerte du 10 janvier 1940; les documents de Mechelen-sur-Meuse," Revue d'Histoire de la deuxieme Guerre Mondiale, No. 12, October 1953, pp. 33-54; rev. as "Le 10 janvier 1940 a Mechelen-sur-Meuse," Revue generale belge, January 1 955, pp. 3ff; in L'Armee, la Nation ,1955, and Revue du Service Historique de l'Armee Francaise, 1955 (10 May 1940). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) On the authenticity of the Mechelen-sur-Meuse documents found on 10 January 1940. Wark, Wesley K., The Ultimate Enemy: British Intelligence and Nazi Germany, 1933-1939. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1985. In this pathbreaking study of the relationship between German rearmament and the British policy of appeasement are important findings regarding deception-induced overestimates of German strength and the British abandonment of a policy of deterrence in the subsequent periods. Whaley, Barton, "Toward a General Theory of Deception," The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, p. 178. (See section on Bibliographies on Deception.) An important theoretical statement. Whaley, Barton, Codeword BARBAROSSA. Cambridge, MA: M.I.T., 1973. (See section on Historical Studies.) Based on the author's 1969 Ph.D. dissertation, this study analyzes the known warnings of the German invasion of Russia in 1941 as received by the world's major intelligence services and their varied interpretations of them. Wohlstetter, Albert, Legends of the Strategic Arms Race. Washington, DC: U.S. Strategic Institute USSR 75-1, 1975. This monograph adapted in a later study, "Racing Forward or Ambling Back," reviews estimates of the Soviet buildup without attempting to ascertain the role of Soviet deception in U.S. estimative errors. Wohlstetter, Roberta, "The Pleasures of Self-Deception," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 1, Autumn 1979, pp. 54-63. A conceptualization of the role the victim often plays in deceiving himself. This is important in cases that occur between wars, where - 24 - Behavior of Targets of Deception the critical time to recognize what an adversary is up to may take years, and where perceptions may be shaped by extended negotiations. Provides examples of self-deception that also involve foreign deception initiatives; fails to analyze these hybrid case s of deception and self-deception with precision. Wohlstetter, Roberta, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962. (See section on Historical Studies.) A pathbreaking study of the sources of surprise despite redundant intelligence warnings. By using a binary communications model (signals v. noise), this analysis overlooks analysis of indicators designed by the originator (for deceptive purposes) to simul ate rated "signals." - 25 - Bibliographies on Deception BIBLIOGRAPHIES ON DECEPTION Bibliography of Intelligence Literature, Defense Intelligence School, Washington, DC, 7th edition, April 1981, 78 pp.; 8th edition, 1985, x + 90 pp. Bibliography on the Soviet Intelligence and Security Services, (Preliminary Edition), prepared for Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, National Strategy Information Center, 1981, 53 pp. Revised ed. New York, 1984. Bok, Sissela, "Secrets and Deception: Implications for the Military," Naval War College Review, Vol. 38, March-April, 1985, pp. 73-80. Bok, Sissela, Secrets: On the Ethics of Concealment and Revelation. New York: Pantheon Books, 1982, 332 pp. Bok, Sissela, Lying: Moral Choices in Public and Private Life. New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 1978. New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1979, pp. 335-337. (See section on Human Deception.) Buranelli, Vincent, and Nan Buranelli, Spy/Counterspy, an Encyclopedia of Espionage. New York: Mc-Graw Hill, 1982, 361 pp. Bureau of Social Science Research, Washington, DC, International Communication and Political Opinion; A Guide to the Literature. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1956. Constantinides, George C., Intelligence and Espionage: An Analytical Bibliography. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1983, section on "Deception and Disinformation," pp. 33-34 + referenced annotated entries. This listing, although brief, is aided by detailed annotated entries for listed works. Deception in Warfare, Air University Library, Maxwell AFB, AL. Special Bibliography No. 275, compiled by Melrose M. Bryant, July 1985, 98 pp. One of the most extensive bibliographies on deception, it is oriented towards military deception planning. Harris, William R. (ed.), Intelligence and National Security: A Bibliography with Selected Annotations. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 3 Vols., 1968, xxix-xxviii, pp. 48-52, 357-360, 631-635. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and Victorina D. Lefebvre, Reflexive Control: The Soviet Concept of Influencing an Adversary's Decisionmaking Process. Denver, C0: Science Applications, Inc., February 1984, pp. 146-153. (See section on General Deception Studies.) - 26 - Bibliographies on Deception Mathtech Inc., Misperception Literature Survey, Princeton, NJ and ORD/CIA Analytic, March 1979. Pforzheimer, Walter, Bibliography of Intelligence Literature: A Critical Annotated Bibliography of Open Source Literature, 8th ed., 1985, Defense Intelligence College. Rocca, Raymond G., John J. Dziak, et al., Bibliography on Soviet Intelligence and Security Services. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1985, xi + 203 pp. "Unconventional Warfare, Part III: Escape and Evasion," U.S. Air Force Academy Library, Special Bibliography Series No. 23, February 1963, 26 pp. U.S. Senate, Committee on the Judiciary, 92d Congress, 1st Session, Soviet Intelligence and Security Services, 1964-70. A selected bibliography of Soviet publications. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Subcommittee to Investigate the Administration of the Internal Security Act and Other Internal Securit y Laws, 1972, 289 pp- - 27 - China: Military and Political Deception CHINA: MILITARY AND POLITICAL DECEPT ''N Boorman, Scott A., "Chinese Stratagem." Paper, Society of Fellows, Harvard University, August 11-12, 1971, 29 pp. Boorman, Scott A., "Deception in Chinese Strategy: Some Theoretical Notes on the Sun-Tzu and Game Theory." In Colonel William W. Whitson, USA (ed.), The PLA in the 1970s. New York: Praeger, 1972. Author sets forth comprehensively the role that deception and stratagem have played in warfare and other forms of conflict at different times and places in world history. He takes into account the strategic style that modern Western cultural mythology ten ds to associate with the Orient. In conclusion, Boorman states that he believes the study of stratagem will play a role in giving substance and credibility to the study of strategic phenomena in general, and that such study permits investigation of some p arallels and contrasts between Chinese and Western approaches to conflict. Boylan, Edward S., "The Chinese Cultural Style of Warfare," Comparative Strategy, Vol. 3, No. 4, Friday, August 13, 1982, pp. 341-364. The purpose of this paper is to provide some insight into what Chinese style of warfare may be discerned over the centuries. In examining Chinese history, certain themes recur sufficiently often and are distinct enough from Western modes of military thoug ht and action as to constitute a Chinese style of warfare. Among these are: emphasis on stratagem over brute force; attacks on military as opposed to economic targets; a willingness to end a conflict once essential political goals have been met; and an em phasis on man as opposed to machinery as being the most vital element determining military strength. Griffith, Samuel B., II, The Chinese People's Liberation Army. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1967, ch. 6, "'Naked, Deliberate, Unprovoked Aggression,"' pp. 104-122, esp. pp. 104-106, 110-114, 117-122; 123-124, 127-129; 139-149. (See section on Surprise Attac k and Deception.) Griffith, Samuel B., II (ed.), Sun Tzu. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1963. One of the better translations and best annotated versions of the Chinese classic work on the theory of war--one that stresses deception. Jencks, Harlan W., "Strategic Deception in the Chinese Civil War." Ch. 12 in Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Military Deception. New York: Pergamon Press, 1982, pp. 277-291. Lau, D.C., "Some Notes on the Sun Tzu," Bulletin of the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1965, pp. 319-335. - 28 - China: Military and Political Deception Luttwak, Edward N., "Seeing China Plain," Commentary, Vol. 62, No. 6, December 1976, pp. 27-33. A detailed account of life in China today: the central phenomenon of its unique, almost pure totalitarianism. In China all activity is forbidden except for that which is specifically permitted and promoted by the party. Quester, George H., "On the Identification of Real and Pretended Communist Military Doctrine," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 10, June 1966, pp. 172-179. (See sections on General Deception Studies and USSR Military Deception.) This article sets forth a model of "pretended" nuclear doctrine, in which a nation seeking a significant nuclear stockpile is likely to minimize the significance of such weapons in declaratory statements. Shewmaker, Kenneth Earl, Americans and Chinese Communists, 1927-1945: A Persuading Encounter. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press, 1971, 380 pp. Rev. of Ph.D. Dissertation, History, Northwestern University, 1966, 494 pp. U.M. n. 66-14,065. This 1966 thesis contradicted the Natalie Grant hypothesis of a conspiratorial disinformation program, without, however, citing or utilizing her research. Revised in the light of the Grant and other writings on disinformation. Stuart, Douglas T., and William T. Tow, "The Theory and Practice of Chinese Military Deception." Ch. 13 in Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York and Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1982. Deception is treated in this study as one of several concepts relating to warfare which influence the decisionmaking behavior of Chinese leaders. Whiting, Allen S., China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War. New York: The Macmillan Co., 1960, section on "prospects of North Korean Victory," pp. 38-40; section on "Peking's Warnings: How Credible?" pp. 109-112; chap. 8, "Motivations Behind Intervention," pp. 151-162; section on "Communications Among Nations in Limited War," pp. 168-169; section on "Subjective Limitations," pp. 169-171; section on "Objective Limitations," pp. 171-172; Note 40, pp. 190-191; Note 3, pp. 192-193. Also, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, paperback, ed. 1968. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Page 29 COUNTERING DECEPTION Ackerman, Peter, "A Scheme for the Detection of Political Deception in the International System," Master's Thesis, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Medford, MA, June 1970, 96 pp. Suggests a plan for controlling the effects of deception in international affairs--a radical departure from other techniques of counterdeception and a flexibility which permits it continually to enhance its capacity to detect deception. Andrew, Christopher M., The Mobilisation of British Intelligence for the Two World Wars, Working Paper for International Security Studies Program, The Wilson Center, Smithsonian Institution Building, Washington, DC, 33 pp. Barland, Gordon H., and David C. Raskin, "An Evaluation of Field Techniques in Detection of Deception," Psychophysiology, 1976, pp. 321-330. An evaluation of the accuracy of detection of deception employing major field techniques. An investigation of the effects of manipulating one of the numerous aspects of the polygraph examination. Betts, Richard K., Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planners. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1982, 318 pp. In the first half of this study, Betts illustrates the problem in a comparative analysis of how nations fall victim to surprise attack despite ample warning. In the second half he applies his analysis and recommends means of preparing to cope with the pos sibility of sudden attack in the future. Betts, Richard K., "Hedging Against Surprise Attacks," Survival, July-August 1981, pp. 146-156. Betts makes suggestions for structuring warning procedures with the NATO Alliance, but focuses on approaches that are more in the political and military than in the intelligence realm: developing graduated NATO responses to warning indicators; structuring forces; and approaches to arms-control negotiations that would render surprise less likely. Blum, R.H., Deceivers and Deceived. Springfield, IL: C.C. Thomas, 1972. (See section on Human Deception.) Brown, Thomas A., Admissible Probability Testing As an Aid to Training Forecasters, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, May 1973. Working Note for presentation at the June .1973 Meeting of the Military Operations Research Society, Annapolis, Maryland, 25 pp. - 30 - Countering Deception Brown, Thomas A., and Emir H. Shuford, Quantifying Uncertainty Into Numerical Probabilities for the Reporting of Intelligence, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, R-1185-ARPA, July 1973, 48 pp. The authors discuss the concept of quantifying the confirmability and certainty of information, using numerical probabilities. They describe a number of scoring techniques that are useful in eliciting and assessing numerical probabilities. They examine th e impact that these techniques will probably have on the motivation of individuals and organizations to make accurate reports of estimates and information, and to correct for systematic biasing in estimation, and to evaluate the reliability and biases of estimators. Burns, Jo Ann, and B.L. Kintz, "Eye contact while lying during an interview," Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1976, pp. 87-89. A study designed to compare the eye contact of men and women in a lying vs. a truthful situation. The results showed that males gazed for a longer time into the female confederates' eyes while lying, and the females gazed for a longer time into the male c onfederates' eyes while lying. Cimbala, Stephen J., "Counterintelligence: The Necessary Skepticism," National Defense, November 1984, pp. 61-65. A discussion of the role and status of counterintelligence in the U.S. intelligence community. A definition of what counterintelligence is, who is responsible for it, and what it can be expected to accomplish. Cook, Jonathan B., "An Argument for Diversity of Attitude, Personality, and Background in the Intelligence Services." Paper, Harvard National Security Policy Seminar, May 5, 1967, 79 pp. + Appendices, 96 pp. This paper reviews some of the psychological literature, particularly that respecting attitudinal change, in a search for some causes of erroneous intelligence. The author concludes that personnel diversity is one of the main safeguards against some types of erroneous prediction, and provides examples of tests and techniques which might encourage diversity in personnel selection processes. Davis, F., Inside Intuition: What We Know About Nonverbal Communication. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974. de Borchgrave, Arnaud, "The Disinformation Phenomenon: The Lack of Safeguards," CAUSA USA, April 1965, pp. 1-4. DeGraffenreid, Kenneth, "Building for a New Counterintelligence Capability: Recruitment and Training." In Roy Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Counterintelligence. Washington, DC: National Strategy Information Center, 1980, pp. 261-2 71, discussion pp. 272-277. - 31 - Countering Deception DeGraffenreid, later a Special Assistant to the President for Intelligence, proposes that personnel recruitment and counterintelligence training are required to more effectively counter Soviet deception. Douglass, Joseph D. Jr., "Disinformation and Strategic Analysis," Draft Paper, April 1, 1981, 37 pp. Drengston, A.R., Self-deception, Ph.D. Dissertation (Philosophy), University of Ohio, December 1971. Duncan, Su Sanhg, and Edward J. Epstein, "Stone,' the Man Who Warned about the Moles," New York Magazine, February 11, 1978, pp. 28-32, 34-38. Ekman, Paul, Telling Lies: Clues to Deceit in the Market Place, Politics and Marriage. New York, NY: Norton, 1985, 320 pp. Draws on clinical observations of Ekman and colleagues. Ekman, Paul, "Mistakes When Deceiving," Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 364, June 1981, pp. 269-278. Ekman, Paul, and W.V. Friesen, "Detailing deception from the body or face," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 29, No. 3, 1974, pp. 288-298. Ekman, Paul, and W.V. Friesen, "Nonverbal leakage and clues to deception," Psychiatry, Vol. 1, 1969, pp. 88-105. Ellson, Douglas G., A Report of Research on Detection of Deception. Indiana University, Office of Naval Research, contract NONR-18011, 1962. Epstein, Edward Jay, "The Spy Who Came In to be Sold: The Invention of Arkady Shevchenko, Supermole," a review of A.N. Shevchenko, Breaking With Moscow. The New Republic, July 15 and 22, 1985, pp. 35-42. Epstein, Edward J., "When the CIA Was Almost Wrecked," Parade Magazine, October 14, 1984, pp. 8-11+. Epstein, Edward Jay, "Russian Spies Inside the CIA and the FBI: The War of the Moles," interviewed by Susana Duncan in New York, February 27, 1978, pp. 28-38. A mole is an agent who works for one intelligence agency while secretly passing information to a hostile agency. A frantic search began for "moles" when, in 1961, KGB major Anatoli Golitsin defected to the United States and informed the CIA that the Sovie ts had penetrated the CIA and FBI. This interview concerns the Lee Harvey Oswald case and Epstein's then forthcoming book, Legend: The Secret World of Lee Harvey Oswald. - 32 - Countering Deception Epstein, Edward Jay, "Legend: The secret world of Lee Harvey Oswald," The Reader's Digest, March 1978, pp. 82-92 and pp. 223-258; "Legend: Oswald--a Four-Cornered Hypothesis," Reader's Digest, April 1978, pp. 278-295. Epstein's book, serialized, based on the premise that the Soviets recruited Oswald in Japan to steal secrets about the U-2 and then, back in the U.S., created a legend for his stay in Russia to hide his intelligence activities there. Epstein, Edward Jay, Legend: The Secret World of Lee Harvey Oswald. New York: Reader's Digest Press (McGraw-Hill), 1978, 382 pp, "Epilogue." The author's "epilogue" to a study of Oswald as a possible or probable KGB agent in the assassination of President Kennedy. Considers the possibility that certain Soviet defectors to the West were disinformation agents. The bona fides of Yuri Nosenko, in particular, are questioned. Based upon interviews with retired U.S. counterintelligence officers. Erdman, David V., and Ephim G. Fogel (eds.), Evidence for Authorship. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1966, 573 pp. Feer, Frederic S., "Analysts of Foreign Governments' Deception: The Problem," in Roy Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Analysis and Estimates. New York: National Strategy Information Center, 1980, pp. 136-151. Freemantle, Brian, KGB. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1982, 1984. Discusses KGB successes, including (in an infelicitous sequence) "Fedora and the United Nations," chapter 8. Frisby, John P., Seeing: Illusion, Brain and Mind. New York: Oxford University Press, 1980. Garnham, David, "State Department Rigidity: Testing a Psychological Hypothesis," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 1, March 1974, pp. 31-39. Goldhamer, Herbert, Reality and Belief in Military Affairs, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-2448-NA, February 1979. Goldsmith, Robert P., and Ralph F. Gerenz, "Techniques for Detecting Cover and Deception." Betac Corporation, 76 Treble Cove Road, Billerica, MA 01862, circa 1983. Griego, William L., Mind, Computer and Deception. Santa Monica, CA, 1985. - 33 - Countering Deception An analysis considering the mind as a computer and its relevance to deception. Griego, William L., Words, Definitions and Ideas of Deception, Santa Monica, CA, 1984. "The purpose of this work is to explore the various words, phrases and ideas used regarding deception to gain insight into deception in the environments in which deception occurs." Griego, William L., Understanding Reflexive Control, The Aerospace Corporation, E1 Segundo, CA, 1983. This work is divided into eight categories: The Problem of Innovation and Simplicity - Two Cases; Game Theory (Hierarchy of Analysis); Soviet Views on Reflexive Control; Reflexive Control Theory (Definitions; Main Concepts and Element Derivation, Definiti ons, "Algorithms," Examples of Reflexive Control); Implementing Reflexive Control ("Second Order" Cybernetics, The Work of a Decision Maker); Reflexive Control and Present Soviet Active Measures; Conclusion; Bibliography. Griego, William L., Detection of Deception: Briefing Outline. Santa Monica, CA, 1980. A detailed outline, and includes: Preliminaries (Tools for Detection); Analysis (Analytical Approach, Data Analysis, Analytical Framework, Adversary's View of ME/US [the Target], Mind/Mentality, Levels of Deception); Analysis (Data Analysis, Probability a nd Statistics; Decision;, Summary (Detection of Deception Checklist, Types of Investigation); and Backup - Theory Overview/Review. Griego, William L., Deception: A "Systems Analytic" Approach, Santa Monica, CA, 1978. This is one of the first attempts to look at deception systematically with a view of a scientific approach. Griego, William L., Dictionary of Terms Used in Deception, Santa Monica, CA, August 1978. Harris, William R., "A SALT Safeguards Program: Coping with Soviet Deception under Strategic Arms Agreements." Ch. 7 in William C. Potter (ed.), Verification and SALT. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1980, pp. 129-141. (See section on Arms Control.) Harris, William R., "Counter-Deception Planning." Paper, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, Government Department, February 27, 1972, 12 pp. Assesses the significance and effectiveness of strategic deception in counter-deception planning. Considers organizational requirements and options in the design of a strategic counter-deception system; and discusses the interactions of deception and coun ter-deception systems. - 34 - Countering Deception Harris, William R., "Counterintelligence Jurisdiction and the Double Cross System by National Technical Means." Paper, Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, Washington, DC 1980, in Roy C. Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Counteri ntelligence. Washington, DC: National Strategy Information Center, 1980, pp. 53-82, discussion pp. 83-91. (see section on USSR Military Deception) Proposes that traditional limitation of counterintelligence jurisdiction to human intelligence resources has contributed to delayed understanding that deceptive exploitation of technical intelligence indicators has significantly affected the U.S.-USSR str ategic competition. Biasing of indicators of Soviet strategy, ICBM targeting, and counterforce lethality are suggested. Proposes expansion of counterintelligence jurisdiction and training. Harrison, Wilson R., Forgery Detection: A Practical Guide. New York: Praeger, 1964, 238 pp. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Soviet Organization and Doctrine for Strategic Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. Forthcoming in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, 1986. An important article regarding CIA clandestine service views on criteria to evaluate human source reporting; argues that "the Soviet passion for secrecy seems to inhibit KGB release of highly classified Information in order to establish the credibility of a deception channel " Argues that "none of the Soviet or East European intelligence officer defectors or in-place sources ever identified any case of a well-placed ... official with regular access to secret documents, who was permitted by his own government to copy those documents and pass them to Western intelligence ...." Nor was there a confirmed case of "a defector who was sent to the West for the main purpose of passing deceptive intelligence ...." This analysis indirectly rebuts articles by E.J. Epstein, and evaluations of the Nosenko and Fedora cases in Chapman Pincher's Too Secret Too Long, and Nigel West's The Circus, among others. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Cognitive Factors in Deception and Counterdeception" Ch. 2 in Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York and Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1982, pp. 31-69. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Strategic Deception: A Psychological Perspective," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 25, June 1981, pp. 294-327. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Strategic Deception and Counterdeception: A Cognitive Process Approach," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 25 No. 2, June 1981, pp. 294-327. - 35 - Countering Deception This study examines cognitive processes relating to strategic deception and counterdeception. It considers means of improving an organization's ability to detect deception and recommends several cognitive aids to analysis as well as the formation of a sta ff to focus on this problem. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Improving Intelligence Analysis: Some Insights on Data, Concepts, and Management in the Intelligence Community," The Bureaucrat, Winter, 1979-1980, pp. 2-11. Hocking, John Edward, "Detecting Deceptive Communication from Verbal, Visual and Paralinguistic Cases: An Explanatory Experiment." Ph.D. Dissertation, Michigan State University, 1976. Hohne, Heinz, and Hermann Zolling, Pullach Intern. Munchen: Hoffmann and Campe Verlag, 1971; English translation as Network, London: Secker and Warburg, 1972, and as The General Was a Spy, New York: Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1972. A biography of General Reinhard Gehlen. Hyman, Herbert H., and Paul B. Sheatsley, "Some Reasons Why Information Campaigns Fail," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 11, No. 3, Fall 1947, pp. 412-423. Jervis, R., Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976. (See section on General Deception Studies.) An earlier version and still convenient summary of the author's book. Jervis, Robert, "Hypothesis on Misperception," World Politics, Vol. 20, April 1968, pp. 454-79. A pioneering study on the perceptual-psychological dimension of intelligence and decisionmaking in foreign affairs. Jones, Lloyd L., Valid or Forged? Quick Aid to Decision on Questioned Writing. New York: Funk & Wagnall, 1938. Martin, David C., Wilderness of Mirrors. New York: Harper & Row, 1980, 233 pp. The careers of James Jesus Angleton and William King Harvey (of the CIA) are chronicled in this book about the CIA's war against the KGB. For almost three decades, Angleton and Harvey confronted the KGB in a daily battle of deception, beginning with the d eath of Walter Krivitsky. In searching for solutions, they became involved deeper and deeper into a labyrinth that Angleton coined "A Wilderness of Mirrors." Background information on the Philby case and related developments. - 36 - Countering Deception Morgan, Patrick, "The Opportunity for a Strategic Surprise." Ch. 8 in Klaus Knorr and Patrick Morgan, Strategic Military Suspense: Incentives and Opportunities. New Brunswick and London: Transaction Books, 1983, pp. 195-245. Murphy, Gardner, "Experiments in Overcoming Self-Deception," Psychophysiology, Vol. 6, 1970, pp. 790-799. Orlansky, Jesse, An Assessment of Lie Detection Capabilities (Declassified Version), Technical Report 62-16, Contract SD-50, Task 8. Washington, DC: Institute for Defense Analyses, July 1962, July 1964, 37 pp., incl. "Bibliography," pp. 34-37. Parham, William F., "Soviet Deception," Norwich Bulletin, Norwich, CT, February 21, 22, 24, 1982. Pincher, Chapman, Too Secret Too Long. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1984. This history reviews documented and hypothesized Soviet penetration of Western intelligence and security services between the 1930s and 1970s. It demonstrates recurring feedback to Soviet security organs, a major aid in deception planning; but it does not address effects upon the efficacy of Soviet deception or how this ;Soviet access affected Western counterintelligence organs in coping with Soviet deception activities. Popper, Frank J., "On the Causes and Control of Erroneous Intelligence." Paper, Harvard National Security Policy Seminar, Cambridge, MA: May 1967, 36 pp. Prados, John, The Soviet Estimate: U.S. Intelligence Analysis and Russian Military Strength. New York: Dial Press, 1982, 367 pp. Focuses on the U.S. intelligence estimative process and techniques used in determining Soviet military capabilities. Starts with the estimative techniques developed by OSS in World War II, and treating more mature techniques and technology used in U.S. es timates. Reed, G., The Psychology of Anomalous Experience. Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 1972. Rosenbaum, Ron, "The Shadow of the Mole," Harper's, October 1983, pp. 45-60. Considered here are charges of treason and unresolved allegations against individuals at the very heart of the American diplomatic and intelligence establishment. This article talks about "careers ruined, mass resignations of counterintelligence people co nvinced that the CIA has been irrevocably penetrated by KGB pawns, about men we thought were our moles in Moscow arrested and shot, and about schizophrenic distortions of our own perceptions of Soviet policy." - 37 - Countering Deception Sackman, H., Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-1238-PR, April 1974, 118 pp. A report that presents a critical analysis and evaluation of the Delphi technique. The prologue defines the scope and organization of the inquiry and sketches key methodological issues associated with the complete cycle of conventional or characteristic D elphi studies. Sarbin, Theodore R., "Prolegomenon to a Theory of Counterdeception." Ch. 7 in Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York and London: Pergamon Press, 1982, pp. 151-173. Schorr, David, "The Trigon Caper," The New Republic, Vol. 183, No. 24, 1980, pp. 18-20. Schrank, J., Deception Detection: An Education Guide to the Art of Insight. Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 1975, 208 pp. Snow, C.P., Science and Government, Boston, MA: Harvard University Press, 1961, 88 pp. Stein, Arthur S., "When Misperception Matters," World Politics, Vol. 34, July 1982, pp. 502-526. Suvorov, Viktor (pseud.), Aquarium: The Career and Defection of a Soviet Military Spy. London: Hamish Hamilton, 1985, 245 pp. Suvorov was identified by KGB/GRU sources in London as "Vladimir Rezun," after he appeared on a British radio program, and according to the British magazine Private Eye. He was a major in Soviet military intelligence (GRU). Suvorov, with his family and th e help of M16, defected from the Soviet U.N. delegation in Geneva in the summer of 1978. "Aquarium" is the Latin nickname for the GRU headquarters in Moscow. Suvorov's book, translated by David Floyd, a Soviet expert formerly with the London Daily Telegraph, has some hitherto unpublished information on the Spetznaz, on the training of a combi ned reconnaissance and intelligence officer, and on undercover operations in the West. Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman, "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuretics and Biases," Science, Vol. 185, 27 September 1974, pp. 1124-1131. Wasserman, Benno, "The Failure of Intelligence Prediction," Political Studies, Vol. 8, June 1960, pp. 156-169. West, Nigel [pseud.], The Circus: MI5 Operations, 1945-1972. Briarcliff Manor, NY: Stein and Day, 1983, 196 pp. - 38 - Countering Deception Book details the failures of British intelligence to detect the Soviet spies high up in its own ranks. The book shows case by case how the postwar intelligence services of Britain were riddled with undetected Soviet agents who compromised Western secrets. The author's research documents names, dates, and places. It demonstrates ranging Soviet penetration of Western security organs, and implies that certain Soviet defectors were dispatched disinformation agents. Like Pincher (q.v.), it does not attempt to analyze effects on intelligence products or policy decisions. Whaley, Barton, Codeword BARBAROSSA. Cambridge, MA: The M.I.T. Press, 1973. Provides a model for analyzing the presence of deception in military operations. Whaley, Barton, "Toward a General Theory of Deception," The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, pp. 177-192; reprinted in Epoptica, No. 5, January 1984, pp. 270-277. The concluding sections argue that the categories of this deception planning model are equally applicable for detecting deception. Winks, Robin W. (Editor), The Historian as Detective: Essays on Evidence. New York: Harper & Row, 1969. - 39 - General Deception Studies GENERAL DECEPTION STUDIES Abelson, Herbert I., Persuasion: How Opinions and Attitudes Are Changed. New York: Springer, 1959. Accetto, Torquato, Della dissimulazione onesta: a cura di Goffredo Bellonci. Firenze: F. LeMonnier, 1943, 161 pp. Allport, Gordon W., and Leo Postman, The Psychology of Rumor. New York, NY: Holt, 1947. The seminal social-psychological theory of distortion of rumors during their diffusion. Amory, John Forth [pseud.], Around the Edge of War, A New Approach to the Problems of American Foreign Policy. New York: Potter, 1961, pp. 82, 102-103; ch. 8, "For Righteous or Sinners,", pp. 87-104. Arendt, Hannah, "Lying in Politics: Reflections on the Pentagon Papers," New York Review of Books, Vol. 17, No. 8, November 18, 1971, pp. 30-39; in H. Arendt, Lying in Politics. New York- Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, 1972. Ashman, Harold Lowell, Intelligence and Foreign Policy: A Functional Analysis, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Utah, 1973, pp. 99-119. Atkinson, James D., The Edge of War. Chicago, IL: Regnery, 1960, 318 pp., esp. ch. 4, "The Evolution of Warfare: Unconventional Warfare," pp. 123-207, s. on "Propaganda," pp. 130-139, s. on "The Soviet Campaign Against the German Federal Republic: A Case History of Communist Propaganda," pp. 139-146. Axelrod, Robert, "The Rational Timing of Surprise," World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 2, January 1979, pp. 228-246. (See Surprise Attack and Deception section.) Barclay, Cyril N., The New Warfare. New York: Philosophical Library, 1954. Barnds, William J., The Right to Know, to Withhold and to Lie. New York, NY: Council on Religion and International Affairs, 1970. Barrett, Edward W., Truth Is Our Weapon. New York, NY: Funk & Wagnalls, 1953. On U.S. psychological warfare in the post-World War II period. Becker, Howard, "The Nature and Consequences of Black Propaganda," Psychological Warfare Handbook, edited by W.E. Daugherty and M. Janowitz. Bethesda, MD: Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, March 1958; American Sociological Review, Vol. 14, April 1949, pp. 221-234. - 40 - General Deception Studies Berezkin, A., "On Controlling the Actions of an Opponent," Voyennaya Mys1 [Military thought], No. 11, November 1972. Translated by FBIS, No. 0049/73. Berger, Stephen E., "The Self-Deceptive Personality." Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Miami, 1971. Biderman, Albert D., and Herbert Zimmer (eds.), The Manipulation of Human Behavior. New York: Wiley, 1961. Blackstock, Paul W., Agents of Deceit: Frauds, Forgeries and Political Intrigue Among Nations. Chicago, IL: Quadrangle Books, 1966, Chap. 1, "Introduction," pp. 13-24; Chap. 7, "Frauds and Forgeries of the Classic Cold War Period," pp. 129-148, esp. pp. 1 29-141; Chap. 11, "The Occupation Fund Documents: Pre-Content and Communications Analysis," pp. 223-239. (See section on Historical Studies.) Blackstock, Paul W., "Covert Political Warfare: The Failure of German Political Warfare in Russia, 1941-45." Ph.D. dissertation, American University, 1954, 2 volumes. Broad, William, and Nicholas Wade, Betrayers of the Truth. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, 1983, 256 pp. Brown, J.A.C., Techniques of Persuasion: From Propaganda to Brainwashing. Baltimore: Penguin, 1963. Browne, Malcolm W., The New Face of War. Indianapolis, Kansas City, and New York: Bobbs-Merrill, 1965, ch. 8, "Red, White and Black Propaganda," pp. 121-157. Byfield, Robert S., The Fifth Weapon; A Guide to Understanding What the Communists Mean. New York, NY, 1954. Callwell, C.E., Small Wars: Their Principles and Practice. London: Harrison & Sons, Printers, for the General Staff, War Office, H.M.G., Third edition 1906. Chap. 4, "Difficulties under Which the Regular Forces Labour as Regards Intelligence," pp. 43-56; "Need of a Good Intelligence Department in Guerrilla Warfare, and of Secrecy," pp. 143-145; ch. 15, "The Employment of Feints to Tempt the Enemy into Action ....," pp. 227-239; ch. 16, "Surprises, Raids, and Ambruscades," pp. 240-255. Observations derived in part from British experience in the Boer War. Camp, Robert Hyde, "Exploitation of News Agencies as a Source of Strategic Information," Thesis, University of Wisconsin, 1949, 165 pp. Cantril, H. Hadley, Soviet Leaders and Their Mastery Over Man. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1960. - 41 - General Deception Studies Carnes, Hugh B., et al., Glossary of Deception and Security Terminology. Washington, DC: Office of Research and Development, Control Intelligence Agency, and Mathtech, Inc., a Division of Mathematica, Inc., Princeton, NJ. Draft Report, 1979. Unpaginated, vii + 94 pp. Carnes, Hugh B., Glossary of Camouflage, Concealment, Deception and Security Terminology. Princeton, NJ: Deception Research Program, Mathtech, Inc., February 1981. Carroll, John M., Secrets of Electronic Espionage. Toronto and Vancouver: Clark, Irwin & Co., 1966, and New York: E.P. Dutton, 1966, 224 pp., esp. pp. 41-44; "radio deception," pp. 48-53; "radar jamming and deception," pp. 69-70; "modern radar deception," pp. 155-161. Carroll, Wallace, Persuade or Perish. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 1948. On psychological warfare. Chaplin, J.P., Rumor, Fear, and the Madness of Crowds. New York: Ballantine, 1959. Clark, G. Kitson, The Critical Historian. New York, NY: Basic Books, 1967, ch. 8, "Documents Genuine and Spurious," pp. 62-81. Clews, John C., Communist Propaganda Techniques. New York, NY: Praeger, 1964, 326 pp. Cohen, Bernard C., The Press and Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963, section on "The Press as an Instrument of Government," pp. 28-30; Chap. 6, "Contributions to the Press: The Outward Flow of News," pp. 169-207, esp. pp. 170- 175. Crossman, R.H.S., "Psychological Warfare," J. Royal United Services Institute, Vol. 97, August 1952, pp. 319-332; Vol. 98, November, 1953, pp. 351-361; Australian Army Journal, June 1953, pp. 528-539. Daniel, Donald C. and Katherine L. Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. Elmsford, New York: Pergamon Press, 1982. This is the revised version of their 1980 collection of papers cited below. Daniel, Donald C., and Katherine L. Herbig, "Propositions on Military Deception." In Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York: Pergamon Press, 1982, pp. 3-30. Daniel, Donald C., Katherine L. Herbig, William Reese, Richards J. Heuer, Theodore R. Sarbin, Paul H. Moose, and Ronald G. Sherwin, Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Military Deception, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, Report No. NPS 56-80-012. Pr epared for Office of Research and Development, Central Intelligence Agency, May 1980, 249 pp. - 42 - General Deception Studies This is the preliminary version of Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. The first four papers analyze strategic deception from the perspectives of history, political science, psychology, and organization theory. The next three papers de al with an examination of deception from the perspectives of established disciplines. Heuer's paper deals with perceptual biases, cognitive biases, and a discussion of the broad problem of countering deception. Sarbin explores ideas on the detection and i dentification of deceptive communications that are intended to influence the receiver to perform in ways that are advantageous to the sender. Sherwin's paper, consistent with its focus on intelligence organizations, draws principles from several research perspectives which are relevant to the study of organizations. Reese's three essays deal with an examination of deception from the perspectives of established technical disciplines. Moose considers that deceptions may occur by intention. He postulates tha t success or failure of a deception must not be measured by whether or not the target believes the signals, but it must be measured by its effects on subsequent observable events. Daugherty, William E., comp., A Psychological Warfare Casebook. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press, 1958. Davidson, Philip G., Propaganda and the American Revolution, 1763-1783. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1941. Doob, Leonard W., Propaganda; Its Psychology and Technique. New York, NY: Holt, 1935. Dorszynski, Julius A., Catholic Teaching About the Morality of Falsehood.. Washington, DC: Catholic University of America Press, 1948, vii + 116 pp. Dovring, Karin, Road of Propaganda; the Semantics of Biased Communication. New York, NY: Philosophical Library, 1959. Druzhinin, V.V., and D.S. Kontorov, Voprosy Voennoi Sistemotekhniki [Problems of Military System design]. Moscow: Voyenizdat, 1976. Druzhinin, V.V., and D.S. Kontorov, Idea, Algorithm, Reshenie [Idea, Algorithm, Decision]. Moscow: Voyenizdat, 1972. Dulles, Allen W., The Craft of Intelligence. New York: Harper & Rowe, 1963, pp. 130-133; at 51.2; 84; Chap. 11, "Confusing the Adversary," pp. 145-153; 155; 162-170. Durham, Leonard E., "Political and Military Deception in Achieving National Objectives," Research Report, USAF Air War College, 1971. Dyer, Murray, The Weapon on the Wall; Rethinking Psychological Warfare. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press, 1959. - 43 - General Deception Studies Ellsberg, Daniel, "The Theory and Practice of Blackmail," and "The Political Uses of Madness," in his lecture series on "The Art of Coercion," The Lowell Institute, Boston, MA, March 1959. Ellul, J., Propaganda: The Formation of Men's Attitudes. New York: Vintage, 1965. Forward, John, Rachelle Canter, and Ned Kirsch, "Role-Enactment and Deception Methodologies: Alternative Paradigms?" American Psychologist, August 1976, pp. 595-604. Frederick the Great (1712-1786), Instruction for the Generals, 1747, in Philips, The Roots of Strategy, pp. 346-354. Frontinus, Sextus Julius, Strategemata, c. 90 A.D.; as The Stratagems. London: Heinemann, 1925; Cambridge, MA: Loeb Classical Library Series. Classic Roman collection of case studies of military deception, loosely divided by operational setting. Garthoff, Raymond L., Intelligence Assessment and Policymaking: A Decision Point in the Kennedy Administration. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1984. George, Alexander L., and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice. New York: Columbia University Press, 1979, pp. 567-87 Grant, Natalie, "The 'Zinoviev Letter' Case," Soviet Studies, Glasgow, Vol. 19, October 196?, pp. 264-277. See the fuller, more rigorous investigation in Chester, et al. Griego, William L., Words, Definitions and Ideas of Deception. Santa Monica, CA, W.L. Griego, 1984. Griego, William L., Understanding Reflexive Control: Briefing Outline. E1 Segundo, CA: The Aerospace Corporation, 1983. Griego, William L., Deception: A "Systems Analytic" Approach: Briefing Outline. Santa Monica, CA: W.L. Griego, 1978. Provides a systems analysis interpretation of deception and decisionmaking. Griego, William L., Dictionary of Terms Used in Deception. Santa Monica, CA: August 1978. Grudinin, Col. I., "Dialectics of the Objective and the Subjective in War," Voyenna-Istoricheskii Zhurnal [Military-Historical Journal], January 1967, pp. 3-13; translated as JPRS No. 40,097, March 2, 1967, pp. 1-13. - 44 - General Deception Studies Handel, Michael I., "Intelligence and Deception," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, pp. 122-154. Hartshorne, Hugh, and Mary May, Studies in Deceit. New York, NY: Macmillan, 1928. Heller, Michel, "La desinformation, moyen d'information," Politique Internationale, No. 10, Winter 1980-81. Herbig, Katherine L., and Donald C. Daniel, Battle of Wits: Synthesizing and Extrapolating from NPS Research on Strategic Military Deception, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, January 1981, 65 PP. Heymont, Irving, Combat Intelligence in Modern Warfare. Harrisburg, PA: Stackpole, 1961, section on "Tactical Cover and Deception," pp. 85-87. Holt, Robert T., Strategic Psychological Operations and American Foreign Policy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1960. Howe, Ete, The Black Game. London: M. Joseph Ltd., 1982. Hummel, William C., The Analysis of Propaganda. New York, NY: Sloane, 1949. Institute for Propaganda Analysis, Inc., New York, The Fine Art of Propaganda; a Study of Father Coughlin's Speeches, edited by Alfred M. Leland and Elizabeth B. Lee. New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace, 1939. Isaacs, R.P., Decoy Attacks. SRS10-300. Hughes Aircraft Co., Systems Development Labs., September 26, 1958, irregular pagination. Janowitz, Morris, "Propaganda for Strategic Deception," in William E. Daugherty and Morris Janowitz (eds.), A Psychological Warfare Casebook. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press, 1958, pp. 381-382. Jervis, Robert, Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976. (See Countering Deception section.) Jervis, Robert, "Hypotheses on Misperception," World Politics, Vol. 20, April 1968, pp. 454-479. Jones, R.V., "Intelligence and Deception," in R.L Pfaltzgraff, Jr. (ed.), Intelligence Policy and National Security. Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1981. An important theoretical review of deception from the perspective of the sender and receiver of signals. Written by a British scientific intelligence advisor in World War II. Page 45 General Deception Studies Jones, R.V., "The Theory of Practical Joking - Its Relevance to Physics," Bulletin of the Institute of Physics, June 1957, pp. 193-201. (See section on Human Deception.) Jones, R.V., "Irony as a Phenomenon in National Science and Human Affairs," Chemistry and Industry, 1968, pp. 470-477. A lecture on irony, with examples of deception. Kieffer, John E., Strategy for Survival. New York, NY: McKay, 1953. Kishler, John P., Kenneth W. Yarnold, et al., Rumor: A Review of the Literature. Stanford, CT: Dunlap and Associates, June 1, 1952, 121 PP- Lasswell, Harold D., The Strategy of Soviet Propaganda. New York, NY: Foreign Policy Association, 1951. Latter, Albert L., Concealment of Underground Explosions, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, RM-2562-AEC, March 16, 1960, 5 pp. Lavine, Harold, and James Wechsler, War Propaganda and the United States. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1940. Leavitt, H.J., and R.A.H. Mueller, "Some Effects of Feedback on Communication Nets," in P.A. Hare, E.F. Borgatta, and R.F. Bales (eds.), Small Groups. New York: Knopf, 1955, 666 pp. Lee, Alfred M., Hoes to Understand Propaganda. New York, NY: Rinehart, 1952. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and Victorina D. Lefebvre, Reflexive Control III. Englewood, C0: Science Applications, Inc. Technical Report, 1986, forthcoming. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and Victorina D. Lefebvre, Reflexive Control II. Englewood, C0: Science Applications, Inc. Technical Report, 1985. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and Victorina D. Lefebvre, Reflexive Control: The Soviet Concept of Influencing an Adversary's Decisionmaking Process. Denver, C0: Science Applications, Inc., February 1984, 153 pp. (See section on Bibliographies of Deception.) Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and Victorina Lefebvre, "Reflexive Control and Its Role in Soviet Strategic Thought." Seminar Paper, Washington, D.C., December 2-3, 1982. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., and G.L. Smolyan, Algebra Konflicta. Moskva: Znanie Press, 1968; JPRS Translation 52700, Algebra of Conflict, March 23, 1971. - 46 - General Deception Studies G Lerner, Daniel (ed.), Propaganda in War and Crisis. New York, NY: Stewar, 1951. Liddell Hart, B.H. Strategy, The Indirect Approach. New York, NY: Praeger, 1954, 420 pp. The principle of mobility has been integrated with that of surprise in Liddell Hart's theory of "indirect approach." Lin, Yu-yang, The Secret Game. New York, NY: Farrar, Strauss & Cudahy, 1958, 268 pp. Linebarger, Paul M.A., Psychological Warfare, 2nd ed. New York, NY: Duell, Sloan & Pearce, 1954. The first comprehensive textbook on the subject. Lippmann, Walter, Public Opinion. New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace, 1922. Lumley, Frederick E., The Propaganda Menace. New York, NY: Century, 1933. Luvaas, Jay (ed.), Frederick the Great on the Art of War. New York, NY: Free Press, 1966, at pp. 324-327. Mackey, James P., III, "The Acquisition of Intelligence in the Nuclear Age: Some Political and Strategic Implications," M.A. Thesis. Washington, DC: Department of Government, Georgetown University, June 1967, xii + 285 pp.; esp. pp. 207, 243-244, 251. Martin, L. John, International Propaganda; Its Legal and Diplomatic Control. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, 1958. McDonald, John, "Poker: An American Game," Fortune, Vol. 37, pp. 128-131, 181-187, 1948. McDonald, John, "The Theory of Strategy, Fortune, Vol. 38, pp. 100-110, 1949. McDonald, John, Strategy in Poker, Business, and War. New York: Norton, 1950. Merglen, Albert, La guerre de l'inattendu. Grenoble, France: Arthaud, 1966. Translated in Kenneth Morgan, Surprise Warfare: Subversive, Airborne and Amphibious Operations. London: Allen & Unwin, 1968, 212 pp- Miltoni, Ioannis, De Doctrina Cristiana, c. 1657. MS. Translated in C.R. Sumner, The Works of John Milton. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, Vol. 17, 1934. - 47 - General Deception Studies Munson, Gorham B., 12 Decisive Battles of the Mind; the Story of Propaganda During the Christian Era. New York, NY: Greystone, 1942. Mure, David, Practice to Deceive. London: Kimber, 1977. On British deception planning and operations in the Middle East in World War II. Owen, David, Battle of Wits: A History of Psychology and Deception in Modern Warfare. London: Leo Cooper, 1978, 207 pp. Based on World War II and the "battle of wits" between England and Germany. Ponsonby, Arthur, Falsehood in War-Time, Containing an Assortment of Lies Circulated Throughout the Nations During the Great War. New York, NY: Dutton, 1928, 192 pp. Pool, Ithiel de Sola, with Barton Whaley, Deterrence as an Influence Process. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Studies, M.I.T., May 1963, 60 pp. "Psychological Warfare," Collier's Encyclopedia, Vol. 19. New York, NY: Crowell-Collier, 1962. "Psychological Warfare," Encyclopaedia Britannica, Vol. 18. Chicago, IL: Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1960. Quester, George H., "On the Identification of Real and Pretended Communist Military Doctrine," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 10, June 1966, pp. 172-179. (See section on USSR Military Deception and section on China: Military and Political Deception. ) Reid, Clifford, "Reflexive Control in Soviet Military Planning," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 39 pp. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) An important synthesis of Soviet studies of Vladimir Lefebvre, et al., on "reflexive control" as a Soviet paradigm for maskirovka in strategic and operational deception. Rosiere, Carlet de la, Stratagemes de Guerre, 1756. A collection of case studies of military deception operations. Saxe, Maurice, Comte de, Reveries sur 1'Art de la Guerre, 1732. Translated and edited by Brigadier General Thomas R. Phillips in The Roots of Strategy. Harrisburg, PA, Military Service Publishing Co., 1944, pp. 189-399. - 48 - General Deception Studies Schelling, Thomas C., "Bargaining, Communication, and Limited War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 1, No. 1, March 1957. Schelling, Thomas C., "Uncertainty, Brinksmanship, and the Game of Chicken," Conference on Conceptual and Experimental Analyses of Strategic Interaction and Conflict, University of California, Berkeley, February 15-16, 1963. Schelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960, esp. Chap. 2, "An Essay on Bargaining," pp. 21-52; Chap. 3, "Bargaining Communication, and Limited War," pp. 53-80; Chap. 5, "Enforcement, Communication, and St rategic Moves," esp. section on "Communication and Its Destruction," pp. 119-161, esp. pp. 146-150. Schramm, Wilbur L. (ed.), Mass Communications, 2nd ed. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1960. Schramm, Wilbur L., The Process and Effects of Mass Communication. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1955. Selznick, Philip, The Organizational Weapon; a Study of Bolshevik Strategy and Tactics. Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 1960. Sherman, Seymour, Total Reconnaissance With Total Countermeasures, Simplified Model, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, RM-202, August 1949. Shibutani, Tamotsu, Improvised News: A Sociological Study of Rumor. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill, 1966, 270 pp., esp. Chap. on "The Political Manipulation of Rumor," pp. 185-213. Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues, Public Opinion and Propaganda, a Book of Readings. New York, NY: Dryden, 1954. Spaight, J.M., Air Powers and War Rights, at ch. 6, "Ruses," pp. 145-160; ch. 12, "Special Missions of the Air," pp. 272-290. Third edition. London: Longmans, Green & Co., 1947 Stebbins, Robert A., "Putting People On: Deception of Our Fellowman in Everyday Life," Sociology and Social Research, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 189-200. Summers, Robert E. (ed.), America's Weapons of Psychological Warfare. New York, NY: Wilson, 1951. Thompson, Mark Smith, "The Lure and Related Elements of Military Strategy: A Game-Theoretical Approach." B.A. thesis, Economics, Harvard College, April 3, 1968, iii + 86 pp., esp. pt. 2, pp. 45-59, and Appendix. A pioneering, but (as the author notes) unpolished attempt to identify, economically, optimal stratagems and adversary - 49 - General Deception Studies predispositions. Two of the main weaknesses are the paper's failure to examine simultaneous stratagem/counter-stratagem interactions, and the mismodeling of the main historical case, the Allied deceptions associated with the Normandy landings (OVERLORD) in 1944. BODYGUARD was a multi-deception effort in which the detection of one deception would not compromise the actual plan. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on International Organizations and Movements. Winning the Cold War: The U.S. Ideological Offensive, Hearings, pt. 5 s. on "The Impact Abroad of U.S. Private Information Mass Media," pp. 529- 568; s. on "The Impact Abroad of Special Activities of Selected Private U.S. Organizations," pp. 569-654; p. 6 s. on "U.S. Government Agencies and Programs," pp. 711-837; pt. 7, Appendices to pt. 6: A. "The Cold War Since 1960;" B. "Research Studies of U. S. Information Agency," pp. 839-951, 88th Congress, 1963. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Un-American Activities, Investigation of Communist Propaganda in the United States. Hearings before the committee on Un-American activities, House of Representatives, 84th Congress, 2nd Session. Washington, DC: GPO, 1956 -1957. U.S. Congress, House, Special Committee on Un-American Activities Investigation of Un-American Propaganda Activities in the United States. Hearings before a special committee on Un-American activities, House of Representatives, 75th Congress, 3rd Session; 78th Congress, 1st Session. Washington, DC: GPO, 1938. Wavell, Lord [Sir Archibald], "Ruses and Stratagems of War," July 1942. In Speaking Generally: Broadcasts, Orders, and Addresses in Time of War (1939-43). London: Macmillan, 1946, pp. 80-83. Whaley, Barton, "Toward a General theory of Deception." In John Gooch and Amos Perlmutter (eds.), Military Deception and Strategic Surprise. London: Frank Cass, 1982, pp. 178-192; reprinted in Epoptica, No. 5, January 1984, pp. 270-277. An important theoretical and typological review of denial and deception activities. Whaley, Barton, On the Prevalence of Guile: Styles and Patterns of Deception in Politics, Diplomacy, and War, Draft Paper, 1975. Six sections trace chronologically the variations in force and guilefulness in Western, Byzantine and the Central Asian nomadic cultures down to the near total eclipse of deception in warfare in the 19th century; followed by four sections on the styles of deception in the Chinese, Japanese, Indian, and Arab civilizations. Whaley treats deception as information designed to manipulate the behavior of others by inducing them to accept a false or distorted presentation of the environment--physical, social, or political. - 50 - General Deception Studies Whitaker, Urban G. (ed.), Propaganda and International Relations. San Francisco, CA: Chandler, 1960. White, John Baker, The Big Lie. London: Evans, 1955, 220 pp., and New York: Crowell, 1956. Zeman, Z.A.B., Nazi Propaganda. New York: Oxford University Press, 2d ed., 1973. - 51 - Historical Studies HISTORICAL STUDIES Allied Expeditionary Force, Supreme Command, Psychological Warfare Division. The Psychological Warfare Division, Supreme Headquarters, Allied Expeditionary Force: An Account of Its Operations in the Western European Campaign, 1944-45. Bad Homburg: SHAEF, 1945, 243 pp. Ambrose, Stephen E., "Eisenhower, The Intelligence Community and the D-Day Invasion," Wisconsin-Magazine of History, Vol. 64, No. 4, 1981, pp. 261-277. Amery, L.S. (ed.), The Times History of the War in South Africa, 1899-1902, at Vol. 3, 168 (tactical deception, "bayonet charge" without bayonets, Gun Hill, December 8, 1899); pp. 354-355 (feinted attack under General Buller, begun three hours too late, F ebruary 5, 1900); p. 387 (feint in Lord Roberts' campaign, February 13, 1900); Vol. 4, p. 470 (feint under General French, September 9, 1900); pp. 588-589 (Col. Baden-Powell's transmittal of bogus orders by megaphone within audible range of Boer trenches; construction of dummy forts and dummy armored trains, November 1900); Vol. 5, pp. 423-427 (Boer ruse, Tafel Top, December 20, 1901); p. 462 (failure of Boer feint, Klippan, February 18, 1901; stratagems of Ian Hamilton, scattering false dispatches, coord inating rifle firings in sparsely-defended areas before entrapment of 300 Boer troops, May 10, 1902). Barber, Noel, A Sinister Twilight: The Fall of Singapore, 1942. Boston, MA: Houghton, Mifflin, 1968. pt. 1, "Before," 3-124; ch. 7, "Awaiting the Attack," pp. 125-161. Barkas, Geoffrey L., The Camouflage Story. London: Cassells, 1952. A British camouflage officer's memoir of deception in North Africa in World War II. Best, S. Payne, The Venlo Incident. London: 1951, 260 pp. Betts, Richard K., Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planners, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1982, ch. 2, "Sudden Attacks in World War II," pp. 27-50; ch. 3, "Sudden Attacks in the Postwar Era," pp. 51-86. Bittman, Ladislav, The Deception Game: Czechoslovak Intelligence in Soviet Political Warfare. Syracuse, New York: Syracuse University Research Corp., Vol. XXV, 1972, 246 pp. (See section on USSR Political Deception.) Blackstock, Paul W., The Strategy of Subversion: Manipulating the Politics of Other Nations, Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1964, section on "The Covert Staging of Border Incidents," pp. 207-217. - 52 - Historical Studies Blackstock, Paul W., Agents of Deceit: Frauds, Forgeries and Political Intrigue Among Nations. Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1966. (See section on General Deception Studies.) Blumentritt, Gunther, Deception and Errors During a War. Washington, DC: Office of the Chief Historian, U.S. EUCOM. n.d. Bornstein, Joseph, and Paul R. Milton, Action Against the Enemies' Mind. New York, NY: Bobbs-Merrill, 1942. Brown, Anthony Cave, Bodyguard of Lies. New York: Harper & Row, 1975, 947 pp. Comprehensive history of Allied deception operations in World War II, based on open source materials of varying degrees of reliability. This work emphasizes the role of MI-6, rather than MI-5 and other security organizations. Compare Masterman's more reli able account. Cagle-, Malcolm W., and Frank A. Manson, The Sea War in Korea. Annapolis, MD: U.S. Naval Institute, 1957, section on "The Kojo Feint," pp. 391-397. Callwell, C.E., Col. (UK), Small Wars: Their Principles and Practice. London: His Majesty's Stationary Office, 3rd edition, 1906. Calvocoressi, Peter, Top Secret ULTRA. New York: Pantheon Books, 1980, 132 pp. Carter, Reed Worrall, and Elmer Ellsworth Duvall, Ships, Salvage, and Sinews of War. Washington, DC: GPO, 1954, Chap. 8, "North African Operations," section on "Evasive Efforts," pp. 144-147. Chesney, Lt. Col. C.H.R., The Art of Camouflage. New York: Transatlantic Arts, Inc., 1943, 253 pp. An historical survey of camouflage in war, including Napoleon's campaigns, the Boer War, and World War II. Chester, Lewis, et al., The Zinoviev Letter, esp. xviii; 10-4; 27-8; 42; 46-7; ch. 5, "How the Zinoviev Letter was Forged," 48-64; 65-8; 72-8; ch. 7, "British Intelligence Authenticates the Forgery," 89-93; 103-8; ch. 9, "The Foreign Office: Culpable or I nefficient?" 110-21; ch. 10, "The Press: A Credulous Response," 122-9; 171-2; 190-5. See G 0. Churchill, Winston S., The Second World War, Vol. III, The Grand Alliance. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 1950, pp. 39-40; Appendix D, Book I, "Estimate of British and German Air Strength, December, 1940," pp. 779-781; Vol. V, Closing the Ring, 1951, p. 33 (MINCEMEAT); 595-596 (FORTITUDE). __Page 53 Historical Studies Colby, Benjamin, 'Twas a Famous Victory: Deception and Propaganda in the War Against Germany. New Rochelle, NY: Arlington House, 1974. Collier, Richard, Ten Thousand Eyes. New York: E.P. Dutton & Co., and Pyramid Books, 1958. Colvin, Ian Goodhope, The Unknown Courier. London: William Kimber, 1953, 208 pp. Cookridge, E.H. [pseud. of Edward Spiro], The Third Man. New York: Putnam, 1968. Cooper, Sir Alfred Duff, Operation Heartbreak. New York: Viking Press, 1951. A novel that leaked the key details of the British World War II MINCEMEAT deception thereby prompting release of the official version. Coster, Donald Q., "We Were Expecting You at Dakar," Reader's Digest, Vol. 49, August 1946, pp. 103-107. Allied deception plan for invasion of North Africa in 1942. Craig, Col. J.P. (USA), et al., A Brief Story of the G-2 Section, GHQ, SWPA and Affiliated Units. U.S. Dept. Army Gen. Hq., Far East Command Mil. Hist. Sec., 1948, see pp. 22-29 for section on "Role of G-2 in the Hollandia Operations: Deception Plan." Cruickshank, Charles G., Deception in World War II. New York: Oxford University Press, 1979, 248 pp. An outline of British and American deception operations in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East in World War II. Dayan, Moshe, Diary of the Sinai Campaign. New York: Harper & Row, 1966, pp. 67, 70-74, 77, 89-91, 98. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Deakin, F.W., The Brutal Friendship; Mussolini, Hitler and the Fall of Italian Fascism. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1962, Chap. 6, "Operation 'Mincemeat'," pp. 346-356. "Deception in War," Military Review, November 1958, pp. 92-97. de Gaulle, Noel A.J., Carnaval der desperado's. Amsterdam: Uitgeverij de Bezige bij, 1956, 558 pp. deGramont, Sanche, The Secret War. New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons, 1962. De Jong, Louis, Het Koninkrijk der Nederlanden in de tweede Wereldoorlog, Vol. II, Neutraal. 'S-Gravenhage: Nijhoff, 1969, esp. ch. 3, "Het Venlo-incident, 80-115; ch. 4, "Het eerste alarm," 222-34; - 54 - Historical Studies "De contacten met Belgi," Frankrijk en Engeland," 252-68; "De Duitse spionage," 318-27; 456-9; 464-72. (Dutch, French, and Belgian surprise, May 10, 1940). Vol. III, Mel '40, 1970, 558 pp. passim (consequences of surprise). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Delmer, Sefton, The Counterfeit Spy. New York: Harper and Row, 1971, 256 pp. A revealing treatment of the use of deception and double agents by the British in World War II. Concentrates on the Spaniard who created a bogus network under Double-Cross, which provided large amounts of deceptive intelligence to the Germans, and whose o perations contributed significantly to the Allied deception program for the Normandy invasion. Delmer, Sefton, Black Boomerang, An Autobiography. New York: Viking, 1962, xi + 303 pp., also as Vol. 2 of his Autobiography. London: Secker & Warburg, 1961, 320 pp. Dennelle, Bernard, "Le sosie de 'Monty'," Historia, February 1960, pp. 201-204. Dening, B.C., "The Possibility of Strategical Surprise in Position Warfare," Army Quarterly, Vol. 10, July 1925, pp. 287-297 + Table of surveying 21 offensives, pp. 298-299. Infers surprise attacks in German offensives against Russia (Jurborg, April 1915; Pirot, October 1915; Russian surprise attack at Lutzk-Czernowitz, June 1916; German, Bulgarian, and Turkish surprise attack at Sistora and Vulcan, November 1916. Identifies seven major offensive failures on the Western Front where strategic surprise was neither sought nor obtained; British surprise attack at Cambrai, November 1917; German deception, detected by British intelligence before attack between St. Quentin and Arras , March 1918; a German deception and successful surprise between La Fere and St. Quentin, March 1918; German surprise [strategic, not tactical] attack, La Bassee-Armentieres, April 1918; German strategic [not tactical surprise] surprise attack, Chemin-des -Dames, May 1918; surprise in German attack, Rheims, July 15, 1918; French deception and surprise attack at Chateau-Thierry-Soissons, July 18, 1918; Anglo-French surprise attack at Amiens, August 8, 1918. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) De Weerd, Harvey Arthur, Strategic Surprise in the Korean War. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-1800-1, 1962, 29 pp. In Orbis, Fall 1962. (See section on Historical Studies.) Dourlein, Peter, Inside North Pole: A Secret Agent's Story. Translated by F.G. Reiev and Anne Cliff. Page 55 Historical Studies Drummond, John D., H. M. U-boat. New York: British Book Centre, 1958, 228 pp. Editors of the "Army Times," The Tangled Web: True Stories of Deception in Modern Warfare. Washington, D.C.: Luce, 1963. Einhorn, Eric S., "Surprise Attack and the Small Power: The Case of Denmark, 1940." Paper, Government 282, Harvard University, December 1966, 49 pp. MS. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) A case study of strategic intelligence failure, April 9, 1940. Eliscu, William, as told to Barry Wynne, Count Five and Die, at p. 9 (German quasi-surprise, Sicilian landings, July 10, 1943); 152 pp., passim (Operation STAMPEDE, SOE/OSS deception of German intelligence, OVERLORD, June 6, 1944. Enquetecommissie Regeringsbeleid 1940-1945, Verslag houdende de Uitkomsten van het Onderozoe. Proceedings of the Dutch Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry, 8 Vols., esp. Vol. IV, Part A, pp. 655-685, 844, 852, 873-874, 878. Erickson, John, "1941," Survey, Vol. 44, No. 45, October 1962, pp. 178-183. Author reviews Philipp W. Fabry's Der Hitler-Stalin-Pakt 1939-1941. Eytan, Steve [pseud.], L'Oei1 de Tel-Aviv, Paris Editions Publications Premieres, section on "L'Affaire Lavon," 1970, 211 pp., at pp. 87-99. Written by a former Mossad station chief in Paris. Farago, Ladislas, The Broken Seal: The Story of "Operation Magic" end the Pearl Harbor Disaster. New York: Random House, 1967, 439 pp. Farago, Ladislas, The Game of the Foxes. New York: David McKay Co., 1971. On German espionage in Britain and the U.S. in the 1930s and 1940s. One of the first books to recognize the role of deception in counterespionage. Farago, Ladislas, The Tenth Fleet. New York: Ivan Obolensky, Inc., and Paperback Library, Coronet Communications, 1962, 366 pp. Foot, M.R.D., Resistance. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1977. The author addresses deception among the multiple techniques used to attack the Nazis in Europe during World War II. - 56 - Historical Studies Foot, M.R.D., SOE in France, An Account of the Work of the British Special Operations Executive in France 1940-1944. London: HMSO, 1966, esp. pp. 105-110, 190, 224-225, 273-275, 228; Chap. 10, "A Run of Errors: 1943-1944;" pp. 289-349, esp. pp. 307-309, 3 12-314, 321-322, 326-349; 350-351, 368, 375-376, 380, 386-388, 451. Ganier-Raymond, Philippe, Le reseau etrangee. Paris: Fayard, 1967, 269 pp.; excerpted in L'Express, Paris, 1967. Garland, Albert N., and Howard M. Smyth, Sicily and the Surrender of Italy. Washington, DC: OCMH, 1965, pp. 45-48, 64-65. George, Alexander L., Propaganda Analysis, A Study of Inferences Made From Nazi Propaganda in World War II. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson, 1959, pp. 205-206, 207, 219-220, Note 58. Giskes, H.J., London Calling North Pole. London: William Kimber, 1953, 208 pp. An insider's account of the German NORDPOL Funkspiel against the British SOE in World War II. Giskes, H.J., "Operation Nordpol: Master Hoax of the 'Secret War'," Reader's Digest, Vol. 63, August 1953, pp. 161-168. Abstract of the above book. Golovko, Arseniy G., Vmeste s flotom [Together with the Fleet]. Moscow: Voyenizdat, 1959. Translated in Peter Broomfield, as With the Red Fleet. London: Putnam, 1965, 248 pp., esp. ch. 2, "The Long-awaited Surprise, June 1941, pp. 20-32. Gordeyev, N., "Operational Camouflage in Naval Landing Operations" in Russian, voyenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, April 1969, pp. 41-51. Translated as JPRS No. 48,346, July 3, 1969, pp. 21-34, esp. 23, 28, 30 (HUSKY, July 10, 1943); 24-25, 28-30 (FORTITUDE/OV ERLORD, June 6, 1944); 25 (U.S. Naval int. deception of Japanese int., Formosan feint, Iwo Jima landings, February 1945); 26 (unsuccessful U.S. feints, at Wonsan and Kosong, N. Korea, October 1952); 28-9 (ANVIL); 28-9 (Okinawa deception); 31-2 (Japanese d eception evacuating Kiska, July 1943, followed by landing of 34,000 U.S. troops on deserted island); 32 (Japanese deception, evacuation of Mindoro, December 1944); 32 (British creation of false "landing ship" in sea off Crete, for German aircraft, 1944). Gough, General Sir Hubert, The Fifth Army. London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1931. Ch. 9, "The Approach of the Storm," pp. 220-259, esp. pp. 236-238; ch. 10, "The Battle of St. Quentin," 260 ff. Goutard, A., 1940, La guerre des occasions perdues. Paris: Hachette, 1956, 408 pp. Translated in A.R.P. Burgess, as The Battle of France, 1940. New York: Ives Washburn, 1959, at pp. 77., 84-94, 104-107, 115 (May 10, 1940). - 57 - Historical Studies "Greatest Hoax in Military History," London Calling: The Overseas Journal of the British Broadcasting Corporation, No. 327, January 13-19, 1946, pp. 3, 13. Halpern, Ben, "The Role of the Military in Israel," in John J. Johnson (ed.), The Role of the Military in Underdeveloped Countries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1962, pp. 317-357, esp. "Postscript: The Lavon Affair," pp. 354-357. Hampshire, A. Cecil, The Phantom Fleet. London: W. Kimber, 1960, 208 Pp. Harrison, Gordon A., Cross-Channel Attack. Washington, DC: OCMH, 1951, p. 76, p. 76n, (FORTITUDE); pp. 164-173 (ANVIL). Harrison, Michael, Mulberry: The Return in Triumph. London: W.H. Allen, 1965, Chap. 14, "What the Germans Thought," pp. 228-234; Chap. 17, "The Harbours Sail to France," pp. 261-276. Hartcup, Guy, Camouflage: A History of Concealment and Deception in War. New York: Scribner's, 1980, 156 pp. A history of camouflage as practiced from earliest times to present times. Hartmann, Sverre, "Varslene til de Nordiske Legasjoner for den 9. april 1940," Jyske Samlinger (New Series) 4, 1958, pp. 141-184. (See section on Surprise Attack.) Helder, Jan, Pieter Dourlein. Amsterdam: "De Bezige Bij," 1951, 225 pp. Henderson, G.F.R., Stonewall Jackson and the American Civil War. London: Longmans, 1898, 2 volumes; New York, NY: McKay, 1968, 737 pp. Holst, Johan Jorgen, "Surprise, Signals and Reaction: The Attack on Norway April 9, 1940 - Some Observations," Cooperation and Conflict, Nordic Studies in International Politics, No. 1, 1966, pp. 31-45. Rev. of Arms Stability in the Cold War. Kjeller, Nor way: Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, 1964; ch. 3, "Surprise Attack: The Anatomy of an International Problem," pp. 59-91; ch. 4, "Norway's surprise on April 9, 1940 - A Failure of Anticipation," pp. 92-112; ch. 5, "Surprise Attack and Conference Diplomacy," pp. 113-170. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Patterning his analysis after that of Roberta Wohlstetter's in Pearl Harbor: Signal and Decision, Mr. Holst provides observations on prejudice, surprise, and strategic intelligence. But see Whaley's Stratagem (1969) for appropriate exposition of German de ception, preceding the attack of April 9, 1940. - 58 - Historical Studies Hood, Burton F., "Operation Greif," Military Review, Vol. 39, January 1960, pp. 37-43. Hoover, J. Edgar, "The Spy Who Double-crossed Hitler; Inside Story of the Normandy Invasion," American Magazine, Vol. 141, May 1946, p. 23+, abridged in Reader's Digest, Vol. 48, June 1946, pp. 19-22. Howe, George F., Northwest Africa: Seizing the Initiative in the West. Washington, DC: OCMH, 1957, pp. 76, 644-648. Jabb [pseud.], "Tales of Intelligence, No. 1: The Dresden Salt-Cellar," Army Quarterly. London: No. 5, 1922, pp. 111-121. French counterespionage deception of German intelligence in 1915. Jackson, W.G.F., The Battle for Rome. London: Batsford Ltd., 1969, at pp. 19, 24-29, 50-52, 53-54, 83, 101, 103-107 (Deception Plan NUNTON, accompanying Operation DIADEM, Italian campaign, May 11, 1944). James, M.E. Clifton, I Was Monty's Double. London: Rider Press, 1954. Kahn, David, The Codebreakers: The Story of Secret Writing. New York: Macmillan, 1967, 1164 pp. Kam, Ephraim, Failure to Anticipate War: The Why of Surprise Attack, Ph.D. Dissertation, Harvard University, 1983. Kautilya (also known as Visnugupta or Canakya), "The world view of the Arthasastra (c. 321-296 BC)," Indian Philosophy, p. 323. Artha-sastra (Sanskrit: "Handbook of [the King's] Profit") is the science of artha, or material prosperity, which is one of the four goals of human life. Kautilya was reportedly chief minister to King Candragupta (c. 300 BC), the founder of the Maurya dynasty. The author is concerned with central control by the king of a realm of fairly limited size and he speaks of the way the state's economy is organized, how ministers should be chosen and war conducted, and how taxation should be arranged and distributed. Gr eat emphasis is placed on the importance of a network of runners, informers, and spies, which, in the absence of a ministry of public information and police force, functioned as a surveillance corps. Kautilya advocated an elaborate system of espionage for domestic as well as foreign affairs. Kemp, Percy, "An Eighteenth-Century Turkish Intelligence Report," International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 16, 1984, pp. 497-506. Leighton, Richard M., "The Planning for Sicily," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. LXXX, 1962, pp. 90-101. - 59 - Historical Studies LeMattre, Chef de Bataillon, "La deception dans les operations de guerre en surface en milieu hostile." (Viet-minh surprise, French withdrawal from Tonkin delta, Indochina, June-July 1954) Lerner, Daniel, Sykewar; Psychological Warfare Against Germany, D-Day to VE-Day. New York, NY: Stewart, 1949; revised as Psychological Warfare Against Nazi Germany. Cambridge, MA: The M.I.T. Press, 1971. Retitled because Professor Lerner recognized that "Sykewar" had become an obsolete term. Liddell Hart, B.H., The Real War, 1914-1918. Boston: Little, Brown, 1930, 508 pp. Lilienthal, Alfred M., The Other Side of the Coin; An American Perspective of the Arab-Israel Conflict. New York: Devin-Adair, 1965, pp. 251-253, 307-309, 394. Liskenne, Charles, and (fnu) Sauvon (eds.), "Stratagemes, Ruses de Guerre, Embriscades, Surprises; Extraits de Feuquieres, Folard, Santa-Cruz, Joly de Maizeroy, Cessac, Carion-Nisas, Jomini, etc.," in Bibliotheque Historique et Militaire. Paris: Imp Madam e de Lacombe, Vol. 111, 1840, pp. 851-974. Mao, Tse-Tung, Basic Tactics. Translated and with an introduction by Stuart R. Schram. Foreword by Brigadier General Samuel B. Griffith, II, (USMC). New York: Praeger, 1966, 149 pp. Chapter VII, Surprise Attacks, pp. 90-98. Margolin, Leo J., Paper Bullets, a Brief Story of Psychological Warfare In World War II. New York, NY: Froben, 1946. Masterman, J.C. [Sir John], The Double-Cross System in the War of 1939 to 1945. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1972, 203 pp. The late Sir John Masterman was an MI-5 official and the Chairman of the British Double-Cross (XX) Committee during World War II. At the end of the war, he wrote this text as an official classified history. The book, a slightly abridged version of the off icial report, describes the highly complex and successful efforts of British Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence to neutralize, and in many cases to utilize, the services of every German agent in Britain during the War. Mathtech, Inc., Thoughts on the Cost-Effectiveness of Deception and Related Tactics in the Air War 1939 to 1945, 1979. See Whaley, Thought on the Cost-Effectiveness of Deception and Related Tactics in the Air War 1939-1945, Research Paper, Office of Resea rch and Development, Central Intelligence Agency, and Mathtech, Inc., Rosslyn, VA, March 1979. - 60 - Historical Studies Mathtech, Inc., Covert Rearmament in Germany, 1919-1939. See Whaley, Covert German Rearmament. Maxim, Daniel, "Deception Maxims: Fact and Folklore," CIA Deception Research Program Document, January 1981. McLaurin, R.D., et al. (eds.), The Art and Science of Psychological Operations: Case Studies of Military Applications. Washington, D.C.: The American Institute for Research, Department of the Army Pamphlet 525-7-2, 2 volumes, 1976. Mescheryakov, Col. Gen. V., "Strategic Disinformation in the Achievement of Surprise in the World War II Experience" [in Russian], Voyenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 2, February 1985, pp. 74-80. JPRS translation as "Strategic Disinformation in the Achieve ment of Surprise." (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Michie, Allan A., "The Greatest Hoax of the War," Reader's Digest, Vol. _ 49, October 1946, pp. 117-122. Mihalka, Michael, German Strategic Deception in the 1930s, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, July 1980, Note N-1557-NA, 112 pp. For an overlapping study, see Whaley, Covert German Rearmament, 1919-1939. In the author's words, "Addresses some of the problems raised by the practice of strategic deception in peacetime, the relevance of the Munich analogy for the contemporary era, the influence that images of military power can exert on policy, and the histo ry of Anglo-German interaction over air policy in the 1930s. Assesses whether and how the Germans engaged in strategic deception in the 1930s: their methods, organization, and objectives." Mihalka, Michael, Robert Mullins, William L. Griego (USAF), and Mark Lorell, Images of German Military Preparations in the 1930s -Strategic Deception or Self-Deception? The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Proposal to OSD, Net Assessment, 1978. "This paper," states the authors, "attempts to answer the question of whether or not lessons were learned from the misperceptions of German war capabilities in the 1930s for the assessment of Soviet strategic capabilities in the 1980s." Montagu, Ewen [Edward Samuel], Beyond Top Secret Ultra. New York: Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1978, 192 pp. World War II memoir of a British Naval Intelligence Officer, Ewen Montagu. He was the Naval Intelligence member of the Double-Cross (XX) Committee headed by John Masterman (q.v.). This committee set the policy for running the double German agents in Engla nd against the German Abwehr for intelligence and deception purposes up to and through the Normandy invasion. Montagu handled all of the ULTRA and Abwehr traffic pertaining to naval XX matters in furtherance of the XX - 61 - Historical Studies Committee's activities. Also briefly describes Operation Mincemeat, a major British deception operation in connection with the Allied invasion of Sicily. He was the case officer for this operation, which is described in greater detail in The Man Who Never Was. Montagu, Ewen [Edward Samuel], The Man Who Never Was. "The German Intelligence Service Plays Its Part," pp. 123-138; ch. 13, "The German High Command Gets Busy," pp. 139-150; App. 2, pp. 157-160. Philadelphia, PA: J.B. Lippincott, 1954, rev. ed. 1967, 160 pp. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) The story of the classic British deception Operation Mincemeat prior to the 1943 Allied invasion of Sicily in World War II. Illustrates exemplary intelligence planning with respect to documentation, both personal and official, and estimate of German react ions. (see section on Behavior of Targets of Deception) Montagu, Ewen [Edward Samuel], "The Corpse That Hoaxed the Axis," Reader's Digest, Vol. 63, November 1953, pp. 19-23; also in MacLean's Magazine, June 15, 1953 and July 1, 1953. Montross, Lynn, and Nicholas A. Canzona, U.S. Marines in Korea, 1950-1953. Washington, DC: GPO, 1955, Vol. II, pp. 144-145. Mordal, Jacques, "La tenebreuse affaire de Gleiwitz," Miroir de 1'histoire, October 1962, pp. 469-478. Morrison, Samuel Eliot, Sicily-Salerno-Anzio, January 1943-June 1944, Vol. IX of History of United States Naval Operations in World War II. Boston, MA: Little, Brown, 1954, pp. 44-47, 69-70. Moulton, J.L., The Norwegian Campaign of 1940: A Study in Warfare in Three Dimensions. London: Eyre and Spottiswoode, 1966, ch. 1-3, pp. 37-99. Mowat, R.B., Diplomacy and Peace. London: Williams & Norgate, 1935, Chap. 15, "Diplomacy and the Press," pp. 232-257. Murphy, Robert, Diplomat Among Warriors. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1964, pp. 106-107, 125-126, 388-390, 392, 441. Nekrich, A. [Alexandr] M., 1941, 22 Iyuniya. Moscow: Nauka, 1965. Translated with further material in Vladimir Petrov June 22, 1941: Soviet Historians and the German Invasion, pp. 31-145. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1968; translated in Marie Bennigsen, as L'Armee rouge assassinee, June 22, 1941. Paris: Grasset, 1968, 317 pp. Professor Nekrich's cautious, somewhat candid history cost him his academic position and his party membership; further materials, some of questionable authenticity, are found in Vladimir Petrov's English-language edition. See Whaley's Codeword Barbarossa, (1973) for a more candid and extensive study. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) - 62 - Historical Studies Norman, Albert, Operation Overlord: Design and Reality. Harrisburg, PA: Military Service Publishing Co., 1952, Chap. 8, "Deception," pp. 124-128; rev. of "The Allied Invasion of Northwest Europe: Design and Reality, 1940-1944," Ph.D. Dissertation, Clark U niversity, 1951. Nutting, Anthony, No End of a Lesson: The story of Suez. London: Constable, 1967, ch. 12, "Deceiving Our Allies," pp. 110-113. Oldfield, Barney, Never a Shot in Anger. New York: Duell, Sloan & Pearce, 1956, Chap. 2, "Deception at Alexandria," pp. 17-29. Padover, Saul K., Experiment in Germany; the Story of an American Intelligence Officer. New York, NY: Duell, Sloan, & Pearce, 1946. Palmer, Dave Richard, The Way of the Fox: American Strategy in the War for America, 1775-1783. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1975, 229 pp. An account of George Washington's deception operations involving the march to Virginia. Perrault, Giles [pseud. of Jacques Peyroles], Le secret du jour J. Paris: Fayard, 1964, 288 pp; [Engl. trans.] as The Secrets of D-Day. London: Barker, 1965, 238 pp., and as Secret of D-Day, Boston, MA: Little, Brown, 1965. Place, Richard, "The Self-Deception of the Strong: France on the Eve of the War of the League of Augsburg," French Historical Studies, Vol. 6, Fall 1970, pp. 459-473. (See sections on Behavior of Targets of Deception and Surprise Attack and Deception.) French underestimation of German strength and logistic capabilities before invasion of Rhineland, September 1688. Polyaenus (fl. 2nd century AD), Strategica, comprising eight books, was dedicated to the emperors Marcus Aurelius and Lucius Verus on the outbreak of the Parthian War (162-165). This historical collection of stratagems and maxims of strategy, still extant, was written in Greek in the form of anecdotes; it also includes examples of wisdom, courage, and cunning from civil and political life. Popov, Dusko, Spy/Counterspy: The Autobiography of Dusko Popov. New York: Grosset & Dunlap, 1974, 339 pp. Popov, while ostensibly working for the German Abwehr during World War II, was actually one of the best agents for the British in the Double-Cross system (see Masterman). He is agent "Tricycle" in the Masterman book. - 63 - Historical Studies Porthault, Pierre, L'Armee du sacrifice (1939-1940). Paris: Ed. Guy Victor, 1965, s. on "Table des hypotheses," pp. 31-50; s. on "10 mai 1940," pp. 51-66. Price, Alfred, Instruments of Darkness: The History of Electronic Warfare. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1977, 284 pp. The author traces in detail the story of the wartime struggle for radar supremacy between Britain and Germany. Few knew the extent to which battles were being won and lost by advances in radar in 1939-45. The use of radar to detect and locate enemy raider s played a big part in enabling the RAF to win the Battle of Britain in 1940. The invasion of Normandy in June 1944 might have proved disastrous but for the complex jamming and decoy missions that were mounted. Careful patterns flown by "Window" dropping bombers caused the Germans to track two incoming "ghost" fleets of invasion ships that never existed except as blips on their radar screens. Reit, Seymour, Masquerade: The Amazing Camouflage Deceptions of World War II. New York: Hawthorne Books, 1978. Sachar, Howard M., From the Ends of the Earth: The Peoples of Israel. New York: World Publishers, 1964, 33 pp. Salinger, Pierre, With Kennedy. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1966, pp. 146-147, 159, 251-253, 255, 263, 280-281, 282, 286-287. Sayers, Michael, Sabotage! The Secret War Against America. New York, NY: Harper, 1942. Schellenberg, Walter, The Labyrinth: Memoirs of Walter Schellenberg. New York: Harper, 1956, xx + 423 pp.; pp. 42, 46-47, 49-50, 63-80, 98-99, 143-144, 158-159, 164, 227-228, 247-249, 263, 274, 284-285, 362-363, 366-367; and as The Schellenberg Memoirs. L ondon: Deutsch, 1956. Authentic but sometimes dissimulative revelations of the Nazi SS counterintelligence service deputy chief (1934-1942) and chief (1942-1945). Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr., A Thousand Days. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 1965, pp. 270-274, 275-276, 795-802, 820. Schreider, Joseph, Het Englandspiel. Amsterdam: Van Holkema & Warendorf, n.d.; as Das war das Englandspiel, Munich: Walter Stutz Verlag, 1950, 414 pp. Sella, Amnon, "Barbarossa: Surprise Attack and Communication," The Journal of Contemporary history, Vol. 13, July 1978, pp. 555-583. - 64 - Historical Studies Sevin, Dieter, "Operation Scherhorn," Military Review, XLVI, No. 3, March 1966, pp. 35-43. Sheen, Henry G., "A Cloak for 'Overlord,' "Military Review, XXIX, February 1950, pp. 20-25. Solomon, Solomon Joseph, Strategic Camouflage. London: Murray, 1920. Sorensen, Theodore C., Kennedy. New York: Harper & Row, 1965, pp. 300-301, 668-669, 683, 706-707. "Sovestkie organy gosudarst-vennoj bezopasnosti v gody Velikoj Otechest-vennoj vojnym," Voprosy istorii, No. 5, May 1965, pp. 20-39. (NKGB deception of German intelligence before Orel-Kursk offensive, May-July 1943; Karelian offensive, June 10, 1944; Belo russian offensive, June 23, 1944; Kishenev offensive, August 20, 1944; German underestimate of Russian military strength, 1940-1942). (See sections on Surprise Attack and Deception and USSR--Military Deception.) Sun-tzu, 6th Century B.C., The Art of War. Translated and with an introduction by Samuel B. Griffith. Foreword by B.H. Liddell Hart. London: Oxford University Press, 1963, 197 pp. Talmon, J.L., and Ze'er Katz, "The Lavon Affair--Israeli Democracy at the Crossroads," New Outlook, Vol. 4, March-April 1961, pp. 23-32. Tobias, Fritz, Der Reichstagbrand. W. Germany: Grote'sche Verlag, 1962, trans. by Arnold J. Pomerans, as The Reichstag Fire, New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons, 1964, 348 pp. Trevor-Roper, H.R., "The Ultra Ultra Secret," New York Review of Books, February 19, 1976, pp. 13-16 (review of A.C. Brown, Bodyguard of Lives). Tuohy, Ferdinand, The Battle of Brains. London: Heinemann, 1930, at pp. 245-247 (British naval intelligence deception of German intelligence, December 1914 of phony Grand Fleet sailing for Germany; German redeployments resulted in British military intelli gence war scare, December 1914, with fears of German invasion of England). (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "l'alerte du 10 janvier 1940; les documents de Mechelen-sur-Meuse," Revue d'Histoire de ]a deuxieme Guerre Mondiale, No. 12, October 1953, pp. 33-54, esp. p. 47, and p. 49, Note 1. Vergilius Maro, Publius, The Aeneid of Virgil. Translated into English by J.W. Mackail. London: Macmillan and Co., 1937, 299 pp. A detailed account of the "Wooden Horse of Troy," pp. 24-48. - 65 - Historical Studies Vigor, Peter H., Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983. (See sections on Surprise Attack and Deception and USSR Military Deception.) Vergilius Maro, Publius, The Aeneid of Virgil. Translated into English by J.W. Mackail. London: Macmillan and Co., 1937, 299 pp. A detailed account of the "Wooden Horse of Troy," pp. 24-48. Villate, R., "L'entree des Francais en Belgique et en Hollande en mai 1940," Revue d'Histoire de la deuxieme Guerre Mondiale, Nos. 10-11, June 1953, pp. 60-76, esp. 64-70. "Vnezapnost' v operatsiiakh vooruzhennkh sil SShA" [The Element of Surprise in Operations of the U.S. Armed Forces], Moscow Voenizdat, 1982. (see sections on Bibliographies on Deception and Surprise Attack and Deception) Walker, David E., Lunch with a Stranger. London: Wingate, 1957; New York: Norton, 1957, esp. pp. 152-155, 160-162, Chap. 19, "Sibs for Sibilance," pp. 163-171; Chap. 20, "The Nina Bar," pp. 172-178; Chap. 21, "Chameleon," pp. 179-184; Chap. 22, "Diverting a Wolf Pack," pp. 185-190; Chap. 23, "Roman Doves," pp. 191-203; Chap. 24, "Grand Wurlitzer," pp. 204-211; Chap. 25, "Farewell to It All," pp. 212-223. An excellent memoir of the British S.O.E. and P.W.E. in World War II. Warmbrunn, Werner, The Dutch Under German Occupation 1940-1945. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1963, section on "Forged Editions," pp. 241-243; also pp. 5-6, 204-205, 210. Watts, Stephen, Moonlight on a Lake .in Bond Street. London: The Bodley's Head, 1961, Chap. 12, "I was Monty's Double Once Removed," pp. 158-173. Wavell, Lord [Sir Archibald], "Ruses and Stratagems of War," July 1942, in Speaking Generally: Broadcasts, Orders, and Addresses in Time of War 1939-1943. London: Macmillan, 1946, pp. 80-83. Wavell, Lord [Sir Archibald], Allenby. London: Harrap, 1940; New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1941, at I, 80, pp. 174-180 (British deception of Germans and Turks, Battle of Arras, April 9-11, 1917); pp. 201-210 ("Haversack ruse," October 10, 1917); pp. 268-272 (British deception of Germans and Turks, Megiddo, September 19, 1918); ÎI, p. 26 (British deception of Germans and Turks, Third Battle of Gaza, October 31, 1917). Westrup, J.J., "Om 9. aprile: En analyse of en ordre," in Irdsskrift for sovaes, No. 138, April 1967, pp. 141-252. (see section on Surprise Attack and Deception) - 66 - Historical Studies Whaley, Barton S., Covert German Rearmament, 1919-1939: Deception and Misperception. Frederick, MD: University Publications of America, 1985, 160 pp. (see section on Arms Control and Deception) See also Mihalka, German Strategic Deception in the 1930s, fo r a more narrowly focussed but more detailed study. Whaley, Barton S., "Covert Rearmament in Germany, 1919-1939," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, pp. 3-27. A convenient summary of the above monograph. Whaley, Barton S., Codeword BARBAROSSA. Cambridge, MA: MIT, 1973. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Whaley, Barton S., "Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War," mimeo, Cambridge, MA: MIT, Center for International Studies, 1969. (See Surprise Attack section.) Whaley, Barton, Thoughts on the Cost-Effectiveness of Deception and Related Tactics in the Air War 1939-1945, Research Paper, Office of Research and Development, Central Intelligence Agency, and Mathtech, Inc., Rosslyn, VA, March 1979. Wheatley, Dennis, The Deception Planners. London: Hutchison, 1980. Memoirs of a World War II member of the British L.C.S. deception planning team. Wheatley, Dennis, Stranger Than Fiction. London: Arrow Books, 1965, 414 pp. With an introduction by Air Marshal Sir Lawrance Darvall. A true story told through the author's papers during World War II. A concern to the other side's operational planning--the deception plans to cover the real plans--to throw the enemy off the track. Willemer, Wilhelm, et al, Camouflage. Hq. U.S. Army Europe: Historical Division, U.S. Army Europe, 1953. A study of German camouflage in World War II, by Colonel Willemer and 15 others. Wingate, Sir Ronald, Not in the Limelight. London: Hutchinson, 1959. Memoirs of a British World War II deception planner in London and the C.B.I. Theatre. Wohlstetter, Roberta, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) - 67 - Historical Studies Zgorniak, Marian, "Les preparatifs allemands d'attaque contre la Pologne (1939) d'apres les informations du deuxieme bureau d'etat-major polonais," Revue d'Histoire de la deuxieme Guerre Mondiale, No. 77, January 1970, pp. 41-54 Ziethen, General, "Aus groszer Zeit vor zwanzig Jahren. Die Durchbruchsschlacht von Gorlice." [Twenty Years Ago: The Breakthrough Offensive at Gorlice] Militar-Wochenblatt, May 4, 1935. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Surveys Austro-German preparations, April 17 to May 2, 1915, preceding German breakout at Gorlice, on the Russian Carpathian Front; complements Whaley's Stratagem (1969 ed.) Case A3, Gorlice. - 68 - Human Deception HUMAN DECEPTION Adler, I., Stories of Hoaxes in the Name of Science. New York: Colliers, 1962. Barnum, P.T., Barnum's Own Story. New York: Doner, 1961. Bell, J. Bowyer, and Barton Whaley, Horn to Cheat. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1981. Blackstone, H., Jr., There's One Born Every Minute. Los Angeles: J.P. Turdies, 1976. Blum, Richard H., Deceivers and Deceived: Observations on Confidence Men and Their Victims, Informants and Their Quarry, Political and Individual Spies and Ordinary Citizens. Springfield, IL: C.C. Thomas, 1972. (See section on Countering Deception.) Boetlinger, H.M., Moving Mountains or the Art of Letting Others See Things Your Way. New York: Collier, 1974. Bok, Sissela, Lying: Moral Choices in Public and Private Life. New York, NY: Pantheon Books, 1978. New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1979, pp. 335-337. (See section on Bibliographies on Deception.) Brackman, J., The Put-On: Modern Fooling and Modern Mistrust. Chicago: Henry Regnery, 1967. Campbell, John P., "D-Day 1943: The Limits of Strategic Deception," Canadian Journal of History, 12 December 1977, pp. 207-237. Capaldi, N., The Art of Deception. Buffalo, New York: Prometheus, 1971. Carrington, H., The Physical Phenomena of Spiritualism: Fraudulent and Genuine. Boston: H.B. Turner, 1907. Cartwright, J., and J. Patterson, Been Taken Lately? New York: Grove Press, 1974. Champlin, T.S., "Double Deception," Mind. Hull, England: University of Hull, Vol. 85, No. 337, 1976, pp. 100-102. The author argues that there are two kinds of deception and two corresponding grammatical constructions with the verb 'deceive': two ways of deceiving others and possibly only one way of deceiving oneself. Christopher, Milbourne, Houdini: The Untold Story. New York: Pocket Books, 1970. - 69 - Human Deception Crosby, P.B., The Art of Getting Your Own Sweet Way. New York: Hawthorn, 1972. Ernst, B.M.L., and H. Carrington, Houdini and Conan Doyle: The Story of a Strange Friendship. New York: Albert and C. Boni, 1932. Francesco, de G., The Power of the Charlatan. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1939. Fearnside, W.W., and W.B. Holther, Fallacy: The Counterfeit of Argument. Englewood-Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1959. Fisher, John, Never Give a Sucker an Even Break: Tricks and Bets You Can't Lose. New York: Pantheon, 1976. A popular book on "sucker bets"--a minor but interesting form of deception. Fitzkee, D., Magic by Misdirection. Oakland, California: Magic Limited, 1975. Forward, John, Rachelle Canter, and Ned Kirsch, "Role-Enactment and Deception Methodologies: Alternative Paradigms?" American Psychologist, August 1976, pp. 595-604. Comparisons of role-playing experiments replicating deception experiments are for the most part invalid, according to the authors. The article also presents several recent developments in the conceptualization and use of role playing and simulation as met hods for systematic research. Gibson, W.B., The Bunco Book. Philadelphia: 1927. Gitter, A. George, "Hypocrisy as a Way of Life." Ph.D. Dissertation, American University, 1963. A popular survey of con games. Now superseded by the works of Maurer, Prus and others. Gluckman, Max, "Gossip and Scandal," Current Anthropology, Vol. 4, No. 3, June 1963, pp. 307-316. An historical survey of gossip and scandal. The development of anthropological interest in the growth and break-up of small groups put gossip and scandal into their proper perspective as among the most important societal and cultural phenomena to be analy zed. Goffman, Erving, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life. London: Allen Lane, 1969, 228 pp. - 70 - Human Deception Gratus, J., The False Messiahs. New York: Taplinger, 1976. Gresham, W.L., Houdini. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1959. Hartshorne, Hugh, and Mark A. May, Studies in Deceit. New York: MacMillan, 1930. A social-psychological study. Holbrook, S.H., The Golden Age of Quackery. New York: MacMillan, 1959. Houdini, H., A Magician Among the Spirits. New York: Harper & Bros., 1924. The famous conjurer's overly self-serving memoirs of his campaign to detect and expose the deceptions of fraudulent spiritualists. Huff, D., How to Lie With Statistics. New York: Norton, 1954. Irving, C., and R. Suskin, What Really Happened. New York: Grove, 1972. Jones, R.V., "The Theory of Practical Joking - Its Relevance to Physics," Bulletin of the. Institute of Physics, June 1957, pp. 193-201. (See General Deception Studies.) Joshi, Mohan C., and Beer Sing, "Neurotic and Psychopathic Tendencies of Habitual Liars," Indian Psychological Review, Vol. 6, January 1970, pp. 113-117. Kelley, T.P., Jr., The Fabulous Kelley: He Was King of the Medicine Men. Ontario: Pocket Book, 1968. Klein, A. (Editor), Grand Deception. New York: Ballantine, 1955. Lefebvre, Vladimir A., Konfliktuyuchiye Struktury [Conflicting Structures]. Moscow: Izd-vo Vvsshaia shkola, 1967. Leff, A.A., Swindling and Selling. Free Press, 1976. Lindey, A., Plagiarism and Originality. New York: Harper & Bros., 1952. Lockard, Joan S., Barbara C. Kirkevold, and Douglas F. Falk, "Cost-benefit indexes of deception in nonviolent crime," Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, Vol. 16, No. 4, 1980, pp. 303-306. These findings support the hypothesis that the cost-to-benefit indexes of crimes involving interpersonal deception are considerably lower than other nonviolent crimes of monetary gain. It is suggested that, as in many other social animals, human deception may be adaptive. - 71 - Human Deception MacDougall, C., Hoaxes, (2nd Ed.). Dover, 1958. Mackay, C., Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Boston, 1932 (Reprint of 1841 edition). Marro, Anthony, "When the Government Tells Lies," Columbia Journalism Review, March 25, 1985, p. 29. A look into the government's attempts to manipulate information in times of crises and sensitive situations. Asserts that reporters have come to accept some level of deception as part of the routine. Concludes there is no way to measure degrees of decepti on from one Administration to another. Mathews, Kenneth E., Jr., and Steven Cooper, "Deceit as a Function of Sex of Subject and Target Person," Sex Roles, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1976, pp. 29-38. A study to determine if the extent of experimentally sanctioned deceit would be influenced by sex pairings and potential for harm to another's self-esteem. Maurer, David W., The American Confidence Man. Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas Publishing Co., Vol. XV, 1974, 316 pp. Fine study heavily based on brilliant field study by a linguist. Maurer, David W., The Big Con. New York, NY: Bobbs-Merrill, 1940. Meeks, John E., "Children Who Cheat at Games," Journal of American Academy of Child Psychology, Vol. 9, 1970, pp. 157-170. Millar, R., The Piltdown Man: The Incredible Story Behind the Greatest Archeological Hoax of All Time. New York: Ballantine, 1974. Moss, N., The Pleasures of Deception. New York: Crowell, 1977. Nash, J.R., Hustlers and Con Men. New York: M. Evans, 1976. Nelms, Henning, Magic & Showmanship. New York: Dover, 1969. Ord-Hume, A.W.J.G., Perpetual Motion, The History of an Obsession. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1977. Palsky, N., Hustlers, Beats and Others. Garden City, New York: Anchor, 1969. Pilisuk, Marc, Barbara Brandes, and Didier van den Hove, "Deceptive Sounds: Illicit Communication in the Laboratory," Behavioral Science, Vol. 21, 1976, pp. 515-523. - 72 - Human Deception Prus, R.C., and C.R.D. Sharper [pseud.], Road Hustler: The Career Contingencies of Professional Card and Dice Hustlers. Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1977. Randi, the Amazing, The Magic of Uri Geller. New York: Ballantine, 1975. Robert-Houdin, Memoir of Robert-Houdini. Minneapolis: C.W. Jones, 1944. Rostand, J., Error and Deception in Science. New York: Basic Books, 1960, 185 pp; Essays on Biological Aspects of Life; Tr. from French by A.J. Pomerans. Shaw, T.L., Precious Rubbish. Boston: Stuart Art Gallery, 1956. Shein, E.H., Coercive Persuasion. New York: Norton, 1971. Silverberg, R., Scientists and Scoundrels: A Book of Hoaxes. New York: Crowell, 1965. Smith, H. Allen, The Compleat Practical Joker. Garden City: New York: Crowell, 1965. A nontheoretical but useful survey of the vast range of practical jokes. For a theory that relates it directly to deception, see R.V. Jones "The Theory of Practical Joking," 1957. Stebbins, Robert A., "Putting People On: Deception of Our Fellowman in Everyday Life," Sociology and Social Research. Vol. 59, No. 3, 1975, pp. 189-200. The practice of deception is old, but "putting someone on" and "put-on" are new terms. This paper deals with the general nature of put-ons and the social psychology of putting on our fellowman. Thomas, H., and D.L. Thomas, Strange Tales of Amazing Frauds. Garden City, New York: Permabooks, 1950. Todd, William Robert, "Linguistic Indices of Deception as Manifestedly Woven: A Content Analytic Study." Ph.D. Dissertation, Florida State University, 1976, 260 pp. University Microfilms Order No. 77-8622. Varma, H.L., The Indian Rope Trick. India, Society of Indian Magicians, 1942. Wallace, I., The Fabulous Showman: The Life and Times of P.T. Barnum. New York: Signet, 1962. Walsh, W. Bruce, "Disclosure of Deception by Debriefed Subjects: Another Look," Psychological Reports, 1976, pp. 38, 783-786. - 73 - Human Deception Westrum, Ron, "Social Intelligence About Hidden Events: Its Significance for Scientific Research and Social Policy," Knowledge: Creation, Diffusion, Utilization, Vol. 3, No. 3, March 1982, pp. 381-400. Explores the nature of the social intelligence system in regard to hidden events and shows how its dynamics can account for our ignorance about the distribution and incidence of these events. Considers the implications of these dynamics for social intelli gence policy. Whaley, Barton, "Toward a General Theory of Deception," The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, March 1982, pp. 177-192; reprinted in Epoptica, No. 5, January 1984, pp. 270-277. Whaley, Barton, Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War, mimeo, Cambridge, MA: MIT, 1969. (See Surprise Attack and Deception section.) Wheeler, M., Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics: The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America. New York: Dell, 1977. 4'ohlstetter, Roberta, "Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and Foresight," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 43, No. 4, July 1965, pp. 691-707. Wrighter, C.P., I Can Sell You Anything. New York: Ballantine, 1972. Young, J.H., Medical Messiahs. Princeton University Press, 1967. Ziemke, Earl F., "Operation Kreml: Deception, Strategy, and the Fortunes of War," Parameters, Journal of the U.S. Army War College, Vol. 9, No. 1, March 1979, pp. 72-83. - 74 - Interspecie Deception INTERSPECIE DECEPTION Bates, H.W., The Naturalist on the River Amazon. London: 1892. Bates, H.W., "Contributions to an Insect Fauna of the Amazon Valley: Lepidoptera Heliconidae," Transactions of the Linnean Society. London: Vol. 23, 1862, pp. 495-566. Boorman, Scott A., and Paul R. Levitt, The Genetics of Altruism. New York and London: Academic Press, ch. 1, "The Evolutionary Roots of Sociality," 1980, pp. 1-31. This mathematical study contains, in chapter 1, leads to studies of interspecific and intraspecific mimicry and alarm warnings. Brower, J. von, "Experimental Studies of Mimicry," American Naturalist, Vol. 44, 1960, pp. 271-282. Caras, Roger (ed.), Protective Coloration and Mimicry. Richmond, VA: Westover Pub. Co., 1972. Cott, Hugh B., Adaptive Coloration in Animals. London: Methuen, 1940. Gregory, R.L., and E.H. Gombrich, Illusion in Nature and Art. New York: Scribner's, 1973. Hinton, H.E., "Natural Deception." In R.L. Gregory and E.H. Gombrich (eds.), Illusion in Nature and Art. New York: Scribner's, 1973, pp. 97-160. Lloyd, James E., "Aggressive Mimicry in Photuris Fireflies: Signal Repertoires by Femmes Fatales," Science, Vol. 187, February 7, 1975, pp. 452-453. "Females of Photuris versicolor prey on males of other species by mimicking the flash responses of the prey's own females. The mimicry is quite effective, and females seldom answer more than ten males without catching one." Otte, D., "On the role of intraspecific deception," American Naturalist, Vol. 109, 1975, pp. 239-242. Poling, James, Animals in Disguise. New York: W.W. Norton, 1966. Portmann, Adolf, Animal Camouflage. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1959. Shuttlesworth, Dorothy E., Animal Camouflage. New York: Natural History Press, 1966. - 75 - Interspecie Deception Simon, Hilda, Insect Masquerades. New York: Viking Press, 1968. Trivers, Robert L., and Hope Hare, "Haplodiploidy and the Evolution of the Social Insects," Science, Vol. 191, No. 4224, January 23, 1976, pp. 249-263. Based on Hamilton's theory for the way in which kinship is expected to affect social behavior, a modification of Darwin's theory of natural selection. This theory provided an explanation for most instances of altruistic behavior and a basis for a biologic al theory of the family. Hamilton studied social insects, in particular the social Hymenoptera (ants, bees, wasps). Trivers, Robert L., "The evolution of reciprocal altruism," Quarterly Review of Biology, Vol. 46, 1971, pp. 35-57. Wallace, B., "Misinformation, Fitness, and Selection," American Naturalist, Vol. 107, 1973, pp. 1-7. Wallace, A.R., "Mimicry, and Other Protective Resemblances Among Animals," Westminster and Foreign Quarterly Review, July 1, 1867. Wickler, Wolfgang, Mimicry in Plants and Animals. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolscn, 1968 ed. - 76 - Surprise Attack and Deception SURPRISE ATTACK AND DECEPTION Anderson, Major Ruth M., Understanding Deception, prepared for Directorate of Concepts, DCS/Plans and Operations Headquarters, U.S. Air Force, Monograph D, May 1978, 27 pp. Addresses the concepts of deception and perception management (Maskirovka) highlighting Soviet perpetration of such activities to further national goals. According to the author, in Soviet military deception practices, both active and passive means are us ed to prevent our discovery of capabilities and intentions, and could cause us to overestimate, underestimate, or be unsure of our analysis. It concludes that in order to counter deception we must understand it and recognize when it is being employed. Aspin, Les, "A Surprise Attack on NATO: Refocusing the Debate," Congressional Record, February 7, 1977, pp. H911-H914. Axelrod, Robert, The Rational Timing of Surprise, Paper, Department of Political Science and Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, July 1977, 50 pp. Paper addresses the problem of when a resource for surprise should be exploited. The first part of the paper shows how broad the problem is in international relations in general and political-military affairs in particular. The second part develops a rati onal choice model to treat the problem. Azar, Edward E., Richard I. Brody, and Charles A. McClelland, International Events Interaction Analysis: Some Research Considerations. International Studies Series No. 02-001, University of Kentucky, (Vincent Davis, ed.). Beverly Hills, London: Sage Publications, 1972, 80 pp. The three chapters in this publication deal with interaction research, in contrast to what might be regarded as action-oriented research. Theoretical and empirical research in the areas of foreign policy and international relations has tended to cluster a round two distinct analytic foci: action and interaction. Belden, Thomas G., "Indications, Warning and Crisis Operations," International Studies Quarterly. Washington, DC: Intelligence Community Staff, Vol. 21, No. 1, March 1977, pp. 181-198. Ben-Zvi, Abraham, "The Outbreak and Termination of the Pacific War: A Juxtaposition of American Preconceptions," Journal of Peace Research, No. 1, Vol. XV, 1978, pp. 33-49. Article juxtaposes the predominant preconceptions and beliefs pertaining to Japanese military capabilities and predisposition to take risks, held by U.S. decision makers on the eve of the Pacific War. The analysis indicates that misperceived notions contr ibuted - 77 - Surprise Attack and Deception both to the outbreak of the War and to the manner in which it was terminated. The lesson from this study in misperception can be formulated as the need to evaluate tactical field information on its own, and to avoid interpreting such data solely in the li ght of strategic assumptions which reflect the decision maker's images of an opponent. The article suggests that increased weight should be given to tactical indicators when these are at variance with strategic assumptions. Ben-Zvi, Abraham, "Hindsight and Foresight: A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of Surprise Attacks," World Politics, Vol. 28, April 1976, pp. 381-395. Betts, Richard K., "Conventional Deterrence: Predictive Uncertainty and Policy Confidence," World Politics, Vol. XXXVII, No. 2, January 1985, pp. 153-178. According to Betts, None of the conditions exists in the 1980s that NATO based its deterrent principle on in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Argues that anxiety over nuclear war has prompted the possibility of replacing NATO's Flexible Response doctrine with a reliable conventional deterrence posture NFU (no-first-use) doctrine. Betts, Richard K., Surprise Attack. Lessons for Defense Planning. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1982, 318 pp. On indications and warning intelligence, a key increment of the intelligence profession. The volume contains examples from 1940 onward, analyzes the problems of being prepared for actual or potential surprise attack from the perspective of both the produc ers and users of intelligence. Enunciates and studies: the need for analysis by intelligence professionals of advance information; the prompt dissemination of such analysis to policy makers responsible for minimizing or thwarting the surprise; and aiding the decision makers to understand the problems with warnings. Stresses the essential relations between the policy and decision makers and their chief intelligence officers. Betts, Richard K., "Surprise Attack: NATO's Political Vulnerability," International Security, Spring 1981, pp. 117-149. Discusses one aspect of the surprise attack problem: the potential mismatch of current military planning assumptions and future crisis decision-making processes. Betts, Richard K., "Hedging Against Surprise Attack," Survival, August 23, 1981, pp. 146-156. Betts asserts that "those who believe it is necessary to be able to defend Europe against the Soviet Union should also believe it would probably have to be done under conditions of surprise." Betts makes suggestions for structuring warning procedures with in the NATO Alliance, but he focuses on approaches that are more in the political and military than in the intelligence realm. - 78 - Surprise Attack and Deception Betts, Richard K., "Surprise Despite Warning: Why Sudden Attacks Succeed," Political Science Quarterly, Winter 1980, pp. 551-572. Article puts in perspective: the problem of warning relative to an impending strike; surprise as an absolute problem rather than as a matter of degree; and prevalent derivation of theories from single cases rather than from comparative studies. Betts, Richard K., "Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable," World Politics, 31 October 1978, pp. 61-89. Bosak, Nora, Stephen Isaac, Donald Kearin, Frank Kosin, and Murray Rosenthal, Warning Systems Research Support: Concord Study, System Development Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, TM-2870/010/01, June 30, 1966, 52 pp. Purpose of paper is twofold: 1) to present data gathered in a field investigation of public responses to a false alarm sounding of civil defense sirens in the City of Concord, California, on July 14, 1965; and 2) to present some general tentative conclusi ons based on an analysis of the responses. Brodin, Katarina, "Surprise Attack: The Case of Sweden," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, May 1978, pp. 98-110. A first priority in all policy planning is to guard against the improbable, the unexpected or the unlikely. Swedish defense planning has traditionally proceeded from the assumption that a defense posture designed to meet a major attack against its mobiliz ed armed forces will also be able to cope successfully with the demands raised by a possible surprise attack. Brody, Richard I., "The Limits of Warning," Washington Quarterly, Summer 1983, pp. 40-48. Brunner, Edmund, Jr., Perception and Strategic Warning, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Note No. N-1273-AF, November 1979, 35 pp- In this Note, strategic warning is regarded as a perception occurring in the minds of the persons in the nation's top leadership posts that an opponent may launch a nuclear attack upon the United States. The only opponent likely to take this action is the USSR, so an examination is made of the reasons that might impel it to do so. The conclusion is that strategic warning is of value in various ways and that it can possibly, though not certainly, be obtained. Carrias, Commandant, "Les renseignements de contact," pt. 1, ch. on "La surprise de la droite allemande en Picardie, les 27 et 28 aout [1914]," pp. 676-687. - 79 - Surprise Attack and Deception Cimbala, Dr. Stephen J., "Is a Soviet 'Bolt from the Blue' Impossible?" Air University Review, May/June 1985, p. 23. Craigie, J.H., The Element of Surprise in Modern Warfare. Los Angeles, CA: Multilith, May 1983, 74 pp. Argues that surprise induced by deception is likely in war initiation. Daih, "Les cinq adaptations byzantines des stratagemes de Polyon," Revue des etudes anciennes, Vol. 33, pp. 321-345. Daly, Judith Ayres, and Stephen J. Andriole, "The Use of Events/Interaction Research by the Intelligence Community," Policy Sciences, Vol. 12, No. 2, August 1980, pp. 215-236. A review essay that applies academic and operational research community criteria of evaluation to a project founded on events/interaction data. The project, the Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS), is built on academic research but also takes into account requirements of the operational community. The article: (a) suggests criteria for evaluation of quantitative interaction research approaches; (b) describes an Early Warning and Monitoring System based on the events/interaction approach; (c) evalu ates the Early Warning and Monitoring System and its use of the events/interaction approach in terms of academic and operational criteria of evaluation; (d) suggests requirements for transferring other quantitative IR approaches to real-world users. Daniel, Donald C., and Katherine L. Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York: Pergamon Press, 1982, 378 pp. A compilation of studies by various authors who formed a multidisciplinary "Deception Working Group" at the Naval Postgraduate School. Part I comprises papers on the theory of strategic military deception. Part II papers test the validity of these theorie s in case studies from World War II through the Yom Kippur War and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Two chapters deal with cases of Chinese military deception. Dayan, Moshe, Diary of the Sinai Campaign. New York: Harper & Row, 1966, pp. 67, 70-74, 77, 89-91, 98. (See Historical Studies section.) Defrasne, Col. J., "L'armee francaise devant l'alerte de 1875," Revue hist. de 1'armee, No. 26, 1970, pp. 37-57. De Jong, Louis, Het Koninkrijk der Nederlanden in de tweede Wereldoorlog, Vol. II, Neutraal. 'S-Gravenhage: Nijhoff, 1969, esp. ch. 3, "Het Venlo-incident," 80-115; ch. 4, "Het eerste alarm," 222-34; "De contacten met Belgi, Frankrijk en Engeland," 252-68 ; "De Duitse spionage," 318-27; 456-9; 464-72. (Dutch, French, and Belgian surprise, May 10, 1940). Vol. III, Mel '40, 1970, 558 pp. passim (consequences of surprise). (See section on Historical Studies.) - 80 - Surprise Attack and Deception Dening, B.C., "The Possibility of Strategical Surprise in Position Warfare," Army Quarterly, Vol. 10, July 1925, pp. 287-297 + Table surveying 21 offensives, pp. 298-299. Infers surprise attacks in German offensives against Russia (Jurborg, April 1915; Pirot, October 1915; Russian surprise attack at Lutzk-Czernowitz, June 1916; German, Bulgarian, and Turkish surprise attack at Sistora and Vulcan, November 1916. Identifies seven major offensive failures on the Western Front where strategic surprise was neither sought nor obtained; British surprise attack at Cambrai, November 1917; German deception, detected by British intelligence before attack between St. Quentin and Arras , March 1918; a German deception and successful surprise between La Fere and St. Quentin, March 1918; German surprise, La Bassee-Armentieres, April 1918; German surprise attack, Chemin-des-Dames, May 1918; surprise in German attack, Rheims, July 15, 1918; French deception and surprise attack at Chateau-Thierry-Soissons, July 18, 1918; Anglo-French surprise attack at Amiens, August 8, 1918. (See section on Historical Studies.) Despres, John, Lilita Dzirkals, and Barton Whaley, Timely Lessons of History: The Manchurian Model for Soviet Strategy, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-1825-NA, July 1976, 84 pp. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Study concentrates on distilling the contents of certain Soviet military publications and on identifying the strategic concerns, institutional preoccupations, and political initiatives that were most closely associated with Soviet military interest in the Manchurian model. It examines the brief war of August 1945 from the viewpoint of Soviet military authorities in the 1960s and 1970s. See also Drea, 1984. De Weerd, Harvey Arthur, Strategic Surprise in the Korean War. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Paper P-1800-1, 1962, 29 pp. In Orbis, Fall 1962. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Dinerstein, Herbert S., War and the Soviet Union, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-326. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1976, ch. 6, "Surprise and the Initiation of War," pp. 167-214. Doran, Charles F., and Wes Parsons, "War and the Cycle of Relative Power," American Political Science Review, Vol. 74, No. 4, December 1980, pp.947-965. Study probes empirically the impact of long-term nonlinear changes in a state's relative power on its propensity for extensive war. Concludes that an understanding of the major power cycle of systemic participation may bring us somewhat closer to an under standing of the cause of some of the most serious wars. - 81 - Surprise Attack and Deception Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., and Amoretta M. Hoeber. Selected readings from Soviet "Military Thought" (1963-1973), System Planning Corp., Report No. 584, April 1980, 694 pp. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Drea, Edward J., "Missing Intentions: Japanese Intelligence and the Soviet invasion of Manchuria, 1945," Military Affairs, April 1984, pp. 66-73. A detailed analysis of how Japanese intelligence in 1945 vastly underrated Soviet capabilities in Manchuria and therefore miscalculated Soviet intentions to launch a large-scale offensive in August 1945. Einhorn, Eric S., "Surprise Attack and the Small Power: The Case of Denmark, 1940." Paper, Government 282, Harvard University, December 1966, 49 pp. MS. (See section on Historical Studies.) A case study of strategic intelligence failure, April 9, 1940. Finer, Herman, Dulles Over Suez. Chicago: Quadrangle, 1964, pp. 333-336, 348, 352-354, 356-357. Fukuyama, Francis, "Nuclear Shadowboxing: Soviet. Intervention Threats in the Middle East," ORBIS, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 579-605, Fall 1981. Fukuyama argues that a major component of Soviet foreign policy in the postwar era has been direct intervention in regional conflicts. However, they face serious constraints in their use of force in regions where the United States and its allies have corr esponding or superior interests. If factors affecting Soviet political calculations remain unchanged and their Middle East policy remains cautious where U.S. interests are heavily involved, it is questionable whether U.S. policymakers should exploit this caution by calling the Soviet bluff. Garthoff, Raymond L., The Soviet Image of Future War, Ch. 3, "The Role of Surprise and Blitzkrieg, op. 60-137," Washington, DC: Public Affairs Press, 1959, pp. 60-137. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Gooch, John, and Amos Perlmutter (eds.), Military Deception and Strategic Surprise. Totowa, NJ: Frank Cass and Company Ltd., 1982, 192 pp. An anthology of writings on military deception and strategic surprise by six authors. Three of the chapters consider the subject in the light of specific cases: German covert rearmament, 1919-1939; Soviet deception on nuclear missile development, 1955-198 1; and the Egyptian/Israeli confrontation, 1971-1973. A chapter is included on "Intelligence and Deception," and two chapters are theoretical studies. - 82 - Surprise Attack and Deception In bringing together historical case-studies, the authors demonstrate that deception is conceptually related to perception and misperception, and provide an analysis of a significant aspect of military activity and statecraft in the modern world. Griffith, Samuel B., II, The Chinese People's Liberation Army. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1967, ch. 6, "'Naked, Deliberate, Unprovoked Aggression,"' pp. 104-122, esp. pp. 104-106, 110-114, 117-122; 123-124, 127-129; 139-149. (See section on China--Politic al and Military Deception.) Grigorenko, Petr Grigorevich, Memoirs. New York, NY: Norton, 1982, ch. 10, "Intelligence Summary Number Eight," pp. 114-121 (June 22, 1941). (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Grigorenko, Petr Grigorevich, The Grigorenko Papers. Boulder, C0: Westview Press, 1976, ch. 1, pp. 7-51 (22 June 1941). (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Gupta, Karunakar, "How did the Korean War Begin?" The China Quarterly, No. 52, Oct/Dec 1972, pp. 699-716. Alleges possible South Korean preemptive attack on city of Haeju, north of the 38th parallel, early on June 25, 1950 as trigger of North Korean invasion of South Korea. Hand, Lt. Col. Robert P., U.S. Army, "CG23 Deception Planning," Military Review, Vol. 47, No. 2, September 1967, pp. 44-48. A discussion of deception planning, the pros and cons. Handel, Michael I., "The Yom Kippur War and the Inevitability of Surprise," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 3, September 1977, pp. 461-502. Handel, Michael I., "Intelligence and the Problem of Strategic Surprise," The Journal of Strategic Studies, September 1984, pp. 229-281. A look into the phenomenon of surprise attack. Handel states that surprise attack is almost always unavoidable and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future, even though all efforts are to the contrary. "The advantages, from a military point of vie w, to be derived from achieving strategic surprise are invaluable." Handel, Michael I., "Intelligence and Deception," The Journal of Strategic Studies, March 1982, Vol. 145, pp. 122-154. Handel, Michael I., "The Diplomacy of Surprise: Hitler, Stalin, Sadat." Cambridge, MA: Harvard Center for International Affairs, 1981, Ch.2, pp. 31-96. - 83 - Surprise Attack and Deception About the difficulties involved in estimating Hitler's intentions and in predicting his style of operation. Handel, Michael I., "Perception, Deception and Surprise: The Case of the Yom Kippur War", Jerusalem Papers on Peace Problems, No. 19, The Hebrew University. Jerusalem: The Jerusalem Post Press, 1976, 67 pp. The first part of this paper is a summary of some of the theoretical and practical problems involved in the efforts of intelligence services in guarding against a possible attack. The second part is the application of these elements to the Arab surprise a ttack on Israel in the opening hours of the Yom Kippur War. Hartmann, Sverre, "Varslene til de Nordiske Legasjoner for den 9. april 1940," Jyske Saml3nger (New Series) 4, 1958, pp. 141-184. (See section on Historical Studies.) Haselkorn, Avigdor, Israeli Intelligence Performance in the Yom Kippur War, Discussion Paper. Croton-on-Hudson, NY: Hudson Institute, Inc., July 17, 1974, 20 pp. A study of the Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur War. Herzog, Major General Chaim, The War of Atonement: October 1973. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1975, 300 pp. This account of the 1973 Yom Kippur War is a professional analysis of Israeli intelligence failures. The author was the former Israeli Director of Military Intelligence. Holst, Johan Jorgen, "Surprise, Signals and Reaction: The Attack on Norway April 9, 1940 - Some Observations," Cooperation and Conflict, Nordic Studies in International Politics, No. 1, 1966, pp. 31-45. Rev. of Arms Stability in the Cold War. Kjeller, Nor way: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, 1964; ch. 3, "Surprise Attack: The Anatomy of an International Problem," pp. 59-91; ch. 4, "Norway's surprise on April 9, 1940 - A Failure of Anticipation," pp. 92-112; ch. 5, "Surprise Attack and Conference Diplomacy," pp. 113-170. (See section on Historical Studies.) Patterning his analysis after that of Roberta Wohlstetter's in Pearl Harbor: Signal and Decision, Mr. Holst provides observations on prejudice, surprise, and strategic intelligence. But see Whaley's Stratagem (969) for appropriate exposition of German dec eption, preceding the attack of April 9, 1940. Howard, Michael, "Military Intelligence and Surprise Attack: The Lessons of Pearl Harbor," World Politics, No. 25, 1963, pp. 701-711. Ivanov, General S.P. (ed.), Nachal'nyi period voiny [On the Initial Period of War]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1974, 356 pp. - 84 - Surprise Attack and Deception Karber, Phillip A., The Impact of New Conventional Technologies on Military Doctrine and Organization in the Warsaw Pact, Adelphi Paper No. 44. London: Institute for Strategic Studies, Spring 1978. King, Admiral Jerry, Strategic Warning: A Briefing. Marina del Rey, CA: R&D Associates, June 1980, AFWL-TN-NT-80-1. Kir'ian, M.M., "Vnezapnost "' [Surprise]. In Sovetskaia voennaia Entsiklopediia. Moscow: Voenizdat, Vol. 2, 1976, pp. 161-163. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Knorr, Klaus, and Patrick Morgan (eds.), Strategic Military Surprise: Incentives and Opportunities. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1983, 265 pp. An anthology on the subject by five authors, including contributions by Michael Doyle, Michael Handel, and Richard Betts. Concentrates on strategy in the use of force, in the adoption of which governments play a decisive part. Twenty cases are examined. C onsiders four European wars, beginning with Prussia's victory against Austria in the battle of Sadowa and on to World War I (Knorr); strategic surprise in the Far East, commencing with the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, and including Japanese aggressions in World War II, the atomic bomb attack, and the Soviet attacks in the Far East at the end of World War II (Morgan); the North Korean surprise attack against South Korea in June 1950, with Chinese intervention in that war, and the Bay of Pigs: April 1961 (Do yle); crisis and surprise in three Arab-Israeli Wars (Handel); and strategic surprise for war termination: Inchon, Dienbienphu, and Tet (Betts). Koeltz, Louis, Comment s'est joue notre destin: Hitler et 1'offensive du 10 mai 1940. Paris: Hachette, 1957, 252 pp. Lanir, Zvi, Fundamental Surprise: The National Intelligence Crisis (In Hebrew). Tel Aviv: HaKibbutz HaMeuchad, 1983. Lebow, Richard Ned, "The Soviet Offensive in Europe: The Schlieffen Plan Revisited?" International Security, Vol. 9, No. 4, Spring 1985, pp. 44-78. Lebow, Richard Ned, "Windows of Opportunity: Do States Jump Through Them?" International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1, Summer 1984, pp. 147-186. A "window of opportunity" is a period during which a state possesses a significant military advantage over an adversary. This has been a central concern of American strategic analysis. LeMattre, Chef de Bataillon, "La deception dans les operations de guerre en surface milieu hostile; un cas concret historique, L'operation Auvergne (Indochine: Juin-Juillet 1954)," L'Armee, Paris, No. 5, 1960, pp. 41-52; No. 6, 1960, pp.48-57. - 85 - Surprise Attack and Deception Levy, Jack S., "Historical Trends in Great Power War, 1495-1975," International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 2, June 1982, pp. 278-300. Author argues that the probability of a war between the superpowers is diminishing but its potential destructiveness is increasing is widely believed. Levy concludes that we have established empirically, over the last five centuries, wars between the Grea t Powers have become less frequent but more serious in terms of their extent, severity, intensity, concentration, and magnitude. The big question is, whether there will be Great Power wars in the future, and if so, what will they be like. Lugand, Lt. Colonel, "Les forces en presence au 10 mai 1940," Revue d'histoire de la deuxieme, Nos. 10-11, June 1953, pp. 5-48. McCaffrey, William J., Shiloh: A Case study in Surprise. M.A. Thesis, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, AD No. 733391, 1970. Mescheryakov, Col. Gen. V., "Strategic Disinformation in the Achievement of Surprise in the World War II Experience" [in Russian], Voyenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 2, February 1985, pp. 74-80. JPRS translation as "Strategic Disinformation in the Achievement of Surprise." (See section on Historical Studies.) Midgaard, John, 9. April 1940. Oslo: Aschenhoug og Co., 1960. Myklebust, Svein Lorents, "The Greatest Deception in the History of Warfare: Hitler's Deceptive Operations in the Months Prior to the Attack on Russia in June, 1941." Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Wisconsin, U.M. No. 8015221, November 1980, 315 pp. Nekrich, Alexandr M., 1941, 22 Iyuniya. Moscow: Nauka, 1965. Translated in Vladimir Petrov with further material as June 22, 1941: Soviet Historians and the German Invasion. Columbia, SC: University of South Carolina Press, 1968; translated in Marie Benni gsen, as L'armee rouge assassinee, June 22, 1941. Paris: Grasset, 1968, 317 pp- Professor Nekrich's cautious, somewhat candid history cost him his academic position and his party membership; further materials, some of questionable authenticity, are found in Vladimir Petrov's English-language edition. See Whaley's Codeword Barbarossa, 1973, for a more candid and extensive study. (See section on Historical studies.) Noorani, A.G., Our Credulity and Negligence. Bombay, India: Ramdas G. Bhatkal, 1963, 167 pp. (Indian misestimates of China, 1962). (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) - 86 - Surprise Attack and Deception Nunn, Sam, and Dewey F. Bartlett, NATO and the New Soviet Threat, U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, 95th Congress, 1st sess. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office, 1977. Pfaltzgraff, Robert L., Jr., Uri Ra'anan, and Warren Milberg (eds.), Intelligence Policy and National Security. Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1981, 318 pp. Papers that grew out of a 1979 Conference hosted by the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. The overall Conference title was "Intelligence: Deception and Surprise," but the intelligence subjects covered were broader in scope. The participants came from government, academe, and the private sector. Authors: R.V.Jones, Roberta Wohlstetter, Ithiel de Sola Pool, John Erickson, Richard Pipes, William Colby, Amrom Katz, Richard Betts, John Roche, and Thomas Latimer. (See section on Arms Control.) Place, Richard, "The Self-Deception of the strong: France on the Eve of the War of the League of Augsburg," French Historical Studies, Vol. 6, Fall 1970, pp. 459-473. (See sections on Behavior of Targets and Deception and Historical Studies.) French underestimation of German strength and logistic capabilities before invasion of Rhineland, September 1688. Pohle, Victoria, The Viet Cong in Saigon: Tactics and Objectives During the Tet Offensive. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, RM-5799-ISA/ARPA, January 1969, 75 pp. Possony, Stefan T., "Reconnaissance in Time Perspective," at p. 17 (French reconnaissance failures, August 1914); pp. 21-25, May 10, 1940; p. 23, April 9, 1940; pp. 25-27, June 22, 1941; pp. 27-28, December 7, 1941; page 28, June 25, 1950. Poteat, George, The Intelligence Gap: Hypotheses on the Process of Surprise, a paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, February 18-23, 1975. Paper is concerned with the dynamics of surprise and relates to questions such as: Why does strategic surprise happen? When are intelligence failures most likely to occur? And, How can the problem of surprise be understood and anticipated? The intention o f the paper is to present hypotheses about the likelihood of strategic surprise in any given political context. Savory, Reginald J.O., "The Invasion Scare of 1755-1756," Army Quarterly and Defence Journal, [London] October 1970, pp. 64-69. Sherwin, Ronald G., and Barton Whaley, "Understanding Strategic Deception: An Analysis of 93 Cases." In Daniel and Herbig (eds.), Strategic Military Deception. New York and London: Pergamon Press, 1982, pp. 177-194. - 87 - Surprise Attack and Deception This analysis helps clarify some of the empirically operational attributes of deception so that comparison could be made across a large number of cases. The Conclusions concern the likelihood that deception will be employed in a strategic engagement as we ll as an assessment of the most likely individual tactics that may be employed in an overall deception scheme. Shlaim, Avi, "Failures in National Security Estimates: The Case of the Yom Kippur War," World Politics, Vol. 28, No. 3, April 1976, pp. 348-380. An analysis of the Yom Kippur War and Israel's surprise by the timing, method and place of the attack. According to the author, there have been few parallels in history for strategic surprise as complete as that achieved by Egypt and Syria in this war (Oc tober 6, 1973). Sidorenko, Col. A.A., The Offensive. Washington, D.C., United States Air Force, 1970, 228 pp. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Skaggs, Glenn, Glenn Bailey, and Steven Spayed, Surprise and Preemption in Soviet Nuclear Strategy. Washington, DC: National War College, April 1983. Paper 83-015. "Sovetskii organy gosudarst - vennoi bezopastnost v velikoi otechestvennoi voiny," Voprosy istorii , No. 5, May 1965, pp. 20-39. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) "Sovestkie organy gosudarst-vennoi bezopasnosti v gody Velikoj Otechest-vennoj vojny." (NKGB deception of German intelligence before Orel-Kursk offensive, May-July 1943; Karelian offensive, June 10, 1944; Belorussian offensive, June 23, 1944; Kishenev off ensive, August 20, 1944; German underestimate of Russian military strength, 1940-1942). (See sections on Historical Studies and USSR--Military Deception.) Stein, Janet Gross, "'Intelligence' and 'Stupidity' Reconsidered: Estimation and decision in Israel, 1973," Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, September 1980, pp. 147-177. A look at the structure and content of strategic arguments used by Israel's leaders to organize their consideration of information and options in the days preceding the unanticipated attack by Egypt and Syria on October 6, 1973. Only the substance of one set of concepts in this one case is treated. Concludes with an assessment of the logical completeness and coherence of these concepts and examines their impact on estimates and choice. Tuohy, Ferdinand, The Battle of Brains. London: Helhemann, 1930, at pp. 245-247 (British naval intelligence deception of German intelligence, December 1914 of phony Grand Fleet sailing for Germany; German redeployments resulted in British military intelli gence war scare, December 1914, with fears of German invasion of England). (See section on Historical Studies.) - 88 - Surprise Attack and Deception U.N. General Assembly, Report of the Conference of Experts for the Study of Possible Measures Which Might Be Helpful in Preventing Surprise Attack and for the Preparation of a Report Thereon to Governments, Document A/4078-S14145, An. 6, 7, and 12. New Yo rk, NY: United Nations, January 5, 1959. U.S. Air Force, Net Assessment Task Force, The Critical Properties of Sudden Attack: A Study Proposal, Washington, D.C., November 1976. U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack, Hearings, 79th Congress, 1st sess. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1946, 39 v. Authoritative materials which may support significant findings beyond those of Wohlstetter and Farago. See Whaley, Operation BARBAROSSA. U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack, Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack. Senate Doc. No. _ 244, July 20, 1946, 79th Congress, 2d sess. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1946. U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack. Report of the Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack, and Additional Views of Mr. Keefe Together With Minority Views of Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Brewster. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1946. Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "Die Krise vom Januar 1940," Wehrwissenschaftliche Rundschau, Vol. 5, February 1955, pp. 66-90. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "Die Niederlande and der 'Alarm' im Januar 1940," Vierteljahrshefte fur Zeitgeschichte [Stuttgart], Vol. VIII January 1960, pp. 17-36 (10 May 1940); rev. and trans. as "Het alarm van januari 1940 in Nederland," in Pierre de Meyere ( ed.), Bijdragen tot de Geschiedenis van de tweede Wereldoorlog [Brussels], No. 1, 1967, pp. 127-181; excerpted and trans. as "L'alerte de janvier 1940 aux Pays-Bas," Revue d'histoire diplomatique [Paris], Vol. 82 April-June 1968, pp. 97-133. (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) Surveying relevant secondary sources, citing unpublished archival materials and providing useful source notes, this piece contributes to an understanding of Dutch, Belgian and French intelligence failings, May 10, 1940. Lacks an appreciation of German dec eption planning, found in Barton Whaley's Stratagem. Criticized by Brausch. Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "La drole de guerre en Belgique: Des plans tombes du ciel," in Robert Aron (ed.), Histoire de notre temps: Toute la verite. Paris: Plon, No. 2, 1967, pp. 149-181 (10 May 1940). (See section on Behavior of Targets of Deception.) On the authenticity of the Mechelen-sur-Meuse documents found on 10 January 1940. - 89 - Surprise Attack and Deception Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean, "L'alerte du 10 janvier 1940; les documents de Mechelen-sur-Meuse," Revue d'Histoire de la deuxieme Guerre Mondiale, No. 12, October 1953, pp. 33-54; rev. as "Le 10 janvier 1940 a Mechelen-sur-Meuse," Revue generale belge, January 1 955, pp. 3ff; in L'Armee, la Nation ,1955, and Revue du service historique de 1'armee francaise, 1955 (10 May 1940). (See section on Behavior of Targets and Deception.) Vasendin, Maj. Gen. N., and Col. N. Kuznetsov, "Modern Warfare and Surprise Attack," Voyennaya mysl' (Military Thought), No. 6, 1966. In U.S. Air Force, Selected Readings from Military Thought 1963-1973, Vol. 5, pt. 1, 1982. Washington, DC: GPO, 1982, pp. 226-233. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Vigor, Peter H., Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983. (See sections on USSR Military Deception and Historical Studies.) An important review and projection of Soviet style in surprise attack, with emphasis on conflict in Europe. "Vnezapnost' v operatsiiakh vooruzhennkh sil SShA" [The Element of Surprise in Operations of the U.S. Armed Forces], Moscow Voenizdat, 1982. (See sections on Bibliographies on Deception and Surprise Attack and Deception.) Wasserman, Benno, "The Failure of Intelligence Prediction," Political Studies, Vol. 8, June 1960, pp. 150-169. Waters, R.S., "Possible Results Had Modern Air Reconnaissance Existed in 1914," Journal of Royal United Service Institute, Vol. 78, 1933, pp. 44-59. Explores hypothetical outcomes assuming aerial reconnaissance, and concludes: "... modern aerial reconnaissance, and, in fact, progress in scientific equipment generally, will transform the entire beginning of a campaign. Westrup, J.J., "Om 9. aprile: En analyse of en ordre," in Irdsskrift for sovaes, No. 138, April 1967, pp. 141-252. (See section on Historical Studies.) Whaley, Barton, Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War, Cambridge, MA: MIT, Center for International Studies, 1969. (See section on Historical Studies.) A pioneering, empirical analysis, with case studies, of 68 cases of surprise attack and the effects of deception in military operations. Published in 150 copies, this is a difficult to locate but important study. See Sherwin and Whaley for later analysis of 93 case studies. - 90 - Surprise Attack and Deception Whiting, Allen S., China Crosses the Yalu: The Decision to Enter the Korean War. New York: The Macmillan Co., 1960, section on "prospects of North Korean Victory," pp. 38-40; section on "Peking's Warnings: How Credible?" pp. 109-112; chap. 8, "Motivations Behind Intervention," pp. 151-162; section on "Communications Among Nations in Limited War," pp. 168-169; section on "Subjective Limitations," pp. 169-171; section on "Objective Limitations," pp. 171-172; Note 40, pp. 190-191; Note 3, pp. 192-193. Also, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, paperback, ed. 1968. (See section on China: Military and Deception.) Wohlstetter, Roberta, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, Stanford University Press, 1962, pp. 336-338. Ziethen, General, "Aus groszer Zeit vor zwanzig Jahren: Die Durchbruchsschlacht von Gorlice." (Twenty Years Ago: The Breakthrough Offensive at Gorlice] Militar-Wochenblatt, May 4, 1935. (See section on Historical Studies.) Surveys Austro-German preparations, April 17 to May 2, 1915, preceding German breakout at Gorlice, on the Russian Carpathian Front; complements Whaley's Stratagem (1969 ed.) Case A3, Gorlice. - 91 - USSR Military Deception USSR MILITARY DECEPTION Abel, Elie, The Missile Crisis. New York: Lippincott, 1966, pp. 49-50, 74-77, 168-170; as The Missiles of October: The Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. London: MacGibbon & Kee, 1966. Adam, Engr.-Lt. Col., and Lt. Col. R. Gebel, "Military Camouflage." In Selected Readings from Military Thought 1963-1973, Studies in Communist Affairs. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Vol. 5, Part II, 1973 pp. 157- 163; Militarwesen, No. 9, 1970; No. 3, 1971; Voyennaya mysl', No. 11, November 1971, FPD 0004/74, 24 January 1974. Beaumont, Roger, Maskirovka: Soviet Camouflage, Concealment and Deception. College Station: Texas Engineering Experiment Station, Center for Strategic Technology, 1982. Becker, Abraham S., Strategic Breakout as a Soviet Policy Option, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-2097-ACDA, March 1977, 56 pp. (See section on Arms Control and Deception.) A study of one of the basic assumptions underlying the U.S. approach to SALT. It discusses Soviet "strategic breakout" (large-scale violation of the SALT agreements) as a set of issues of Soviet policy. Beketov, Anatolii A., et al., Maskirovka Deistvii Podrazdelenii Sukhoputnykh Voisk [Ground Troops Concealment]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1976, 139 pp. Caravelli, John M., "The Role of Surprise and Preemption in Soviet Military Strategy," International Security Review, Vol. 6, No. 2, Summer 1981, pp. 209-236. Cohen, Samuel T., and Joseph D. Douglass, Jr., "Selective Targeting and Soviet Deception," Armed Forces Journal, September 1983, pp. 95-101. deLeon, Peter, Soviet Views of Strategic Deception. Santa Monica, CA: The Rand Corporation, Paper P-6685, September 1981, vii + 34 pp. This paper summarizes views of selected Soviet writers, and contains a Table (pp. 28-29) of possible deception objectives and means. Despres, John, Lilita Dzirkals, and Barton Whaley, Timely Lessons of History: The Manchurian Model for Soviet Strategy, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report R-1825-NA, July 1976, 84 pp. Study concentrates on distilling the Soviet experience with blitzkrieg, including night-only operations and mobility of forces during the Manchurian Campaign of 1945. This study draws upon military publications, and it identifies the strategic concerns, i nstitutional preoccupations, and political initiatives that were most closely associated with Soviet military interest in the Manchurian - 92 - USSR Military Deception model. It examines the brief campaign of August 1945 from the viewpoint of Soviet military authorities in the 1960s and 1970s, the so-called "Manchurian generals" who dominated key elements of the Soviet General Staff in the 1960s. The officers involved in the Soviet Manchurian Campaign assumed key military positions in 1960 and later. Concurrently, the Strategic Rocket Forces became a separate command, and KGB deception resources supported the "Manchurian" strategy of the 1960s. Dinerstein, Herbert S., War and the Soviet Union, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, R-326. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1976, ch. 6, "Surprise and the Initiation of War," pp. 167-214. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., and David S. Sullivan, "Intelligence, Warning, and Surprise," Armed Forces Journal International, December 1984, pp. 133-136. (See section on Arms Control and Deception.) Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., "Soviet Strategic Deception," DS2002 f, August1984, pp. 87-99. That the U.S. military, economic, and foreign policies may be based on erroneous and detrimental assumptions concerning the Soviet Union raises questions, explored in this article. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., "Chemical Weapons: An Imbalance of Terror," Strategic Review, August 13, 1982, pp. 36-47. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., "Soviet Disinformation," Strategic Review, Vol. 1~, No. 1, Winter 1981, pp. 16-26. An analysis of the urgent need to attack the problem of Soviet intentions and disinformation, consistent with the Soviets' emphasis on the principle of surprise. Douglass states, "An obvious need is to study more intensively the 'anatomy' of Soviet disinf ormation--its purveyors, tactics, themes and objectives--and to integrate the findings into the intelligence process." He states that the solution to the rising problem lies in a more rigorous, comprehensive and skeptical assessment of all dimensions of t he data base in which intelligence estimates are steeped. (see section on USSR Political Deception) Douglass, Joseph D. Jr., "The Growing Disinformation Problem," International Security Review, Vol. VI, No.III, Fall 1981, pp. 333-353. Concerns the importance of awareness to Soviet-directed disinformation and its possible effectiveness in disrupting and derailing Western foreign policy and national security programs. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., and Amoretta M. Hoeber. Selected readings from Soviet "Military Thought" (1963-1973), System Planning Corp., Report No. 584, April 1980, 694 pp. An important selection of Soviet doctrinal materials. - 93 - USSR Military Deception Druzhinin, V.V., and D.S. Kontorov, Konfliktnaia Radiolokatsiia (Radar Combat). Moscow: Radio I Sviaz', 1982. Dziak, John J., "The Organizational and Operational Tradition of Soviet Deception: An Historical Sampling," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. Mr. Dziak, a production manager at the Defense Intelligence Agency, reviews definitions, and early cases of Soviet political deception. Using archival holdings, Mr. Dziak compares General Gehlen's evaluation of Soviet use of only limited signals deception with the "MAX-MORITZ" case involving about 5,000 Soviet-controlled messages between Sofia and Berlin in July 1941-February 1945. Dzirkals, Lilita I., "Lightning War" in Manchuria: Soviet Military Analysis of the 1945 Far East Campaign, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, P-5589, January 1976, 116 pp. This Paper presents the initial results of a survey of Soviet military literature on the campaign the Soviets waged against Japanese forces in Manchuria in 1945. It also takes note of the prominence of officers involved in the Manchurian Campaign and its historiography in Soviet command positions in the 1960s. It was undertaken for the purpose of eliciting evidence on current Soviet precepts regarding military operations in the Far East military theater. It is intended as a guide to the material discovere d. See also Despres, et al., 1976. Epstein, Edward Jay, "Disinformation: Or, Why the CIA Cannot Verify an Arms Control Agreement," Commentary, Vol. 74, July 1982, pp. 21-28. Feer, Fredric S., The Impact of Soviet Misinformation on Military Operations: 1920-1979, Analytical Assessments Corporation, Marina Del Rey, CA, AAC-WN-7906, April 1979, 43 pp. The stated purpose of this study, by a former CIA intelligence analyst, was to attempt to answer critical questions pertaining to the Soviet Union's concealment and deception capabilities. Because of declassification limitations, the text treats the title d subject, only in the World War II period. Foote, Alexander, Handbook for Spies. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1949, Chap. 13, "The Vultures Gather," pp. 135-153; Chap. 14, "The Doctors Decide," pp. 154-165; Chap. 15, "Hospital and After," pp. 166-180. An authentic memoir and description of the Rado-Rossler Soviet GRU espionage network in Switzerland during World War II. A second, much inferior edition (London: 1962) deletes some of Foote's original material and interpolates new editorial material and t ext. - 94 - USSR Military Deception Garthoff, Raymond L., The Soviet Image of Future War, Ch. 3: "The Role of Surprise and Blitzkrieg." Washington, DC: Public Affairs Press, 1959, ch. 3, "The Role of Surprise and Blitzkrieg, pp. 60-137. (see section on Surprise Attack and Deception) An important analysis of Soviet military doctrine. See also H.S. Dinerstein's study. Garthoff, Raymond L., Soviet Military Doctrine. The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, R-223, ch. 16, "Deception, Surprise, and Security," May 1, 1953, pp. 265-276. Gertz, Bill, "Soviets fill craters, dig new ones to fool U.S. on missile accuracy," Washington Times, August 7, 1985, p. 1. Gontaev, Rear Admiral A., "Vnezapnost' kak kategoriia voenno-morskogo iskusstva" [Surprise as a Category of Naval Art] , Morskoi Sbornik, No. 3, March 1973, pp. 30-35. - Gordeyev, Capt. N., "Protivodeistvie razvedke protivnika," [Counteracting Enemy Intelligence], Morskoi Sbornik (Naval Review), No. 10, October 1972, pp. 31-35. Article provides references to Western works on modern intelligence. It discusses "operational camouflage" in WWII. Gordeyev, Capt. N., "Operational Camouflage in Naval Landing Operations." [in Russian], Voyenna-Istoricheskii Zhurnal, April 1969, JPRS Trans. 48, 346, July 3, 1969. Green, William C., "Soviet Disinformation and Strategic Deception Concerning Its Nuclear Weapons Policy," Chapter 5, Draft Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Southern California, February 1984, 34 pp. Green argues that the Soviet Union's major object of strategic deception after the signing of SALT I was to convince the United States that they had accepted mutual deterrence and had no strategic objectives beyond parity. The author identifies deceptive aspects of Soviet information policies. Haltom, Margaret Saxton, "Discrepancies in the Lend-Lease Program," Southern Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 4, 1966, pp. 446-468. Discusses the Lend-Lease Program, authorized in 1941, and administered by the office of Lend-Lease Administration, which within 5 years dispensed 42 billion dollars to other nations. The article examines complaints against the functioning of the departmen t, with specific reference to Soviet technology and weapons acquisition beyond officially authorized transfers. - 95 - USSR Military Deception Harris, William R., "Counterintelligence Jurisdiction and the Double Cross System by National Technical Means." Paper, Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, 1980, in R. Godson (ed.), Intelligence Requirements for the 1980s: Counterintelligence. Washin gton, DC: National Strategy Information Center, 1980, pp. 53-82, discussion pp. 83-91. (see section on Countering Deception). Harris, William R., "Counterintelligence Jurisdiction and the National Act of 1980." Prepared Statement on S.2284, U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, April 1980. Asserts that the USSR systematically biased indicators of ICBM accuracy with effects on U.S. intelligence estimates and delays in protecting or replacing Minuteman ICBM systems. Heuer, Richards J., Jr., "Soviet Organization and Doctrine for Strategic Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. Forthcoming in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet - Strategic Deception, 1986. Provides an organizational context for the allocation of roles and missions for active measures (including political disinformation and strategic deception), counterintelligence, and maskirovka (defined as military camouflage, cover, and deception). This conception of roles and missions, presented by a retired officer of the Operations Directorate of CIA, implies significant constraints upon the peacetime KGB role in mounting deception operations relating to U.S. and NATO defense programs, particularly th rough controlled double agents-in-place. Horelick, Arnold L., and Myron Rush, Strategic Polder and Soviet Foreign Policy. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1965, Part II, "The Politics of Soviet Missile Deception, 1957-61," pp. 33-102; Part III, "Strategic Power and Soviet Foreign Policy," Chap. 9, "The Missile Deception in Soviet Foreign Policy, 1957-62," pp. 205-116. (See section on USSR Political Deception.) An influential study of Soviet uses of military secrecy, military parades, and public diplomacy to project power and translate perceptions of that power into foreign policy advantage in the period 1957-1962. While the Soviets did not deploy the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles, nor the ABM systems implied by their boasts, they did, by 1960, establish both Strategic Rocket Forces, new design bureaus, and a Deception Department in the KGB. In the 1966-1970, and subsequent Five Year Defense Plan s, the Soviets realized much of the military prowess discussed in 1957-1962. Later writers (e.g., Harris, "Counterintelligence Jurisdiction and the Double Cross System by National Technical Means," 1980), propose that the Soviets underrepresented the planned capabilities of countercommand and counterforce ICBM systems tested in th e 1960s. Hence, the Horelick-Rush model of Soviet "bluffing upwards" for - 96 - USSR Military Deception deterrence and potential war fighting may fail to capture concurrent "bluffing downwards" in 1959-1965 relative to weapons development for force deployments in the 1966-1970 and 1971-1975 Defense Plans, when the Soviets invested in unexpected quantities o f ICBMs for unexpected wartime missions. The Horelick-Rush study is of continuing importance in understanding the evolution of U.S. concepts of Soviet deception, and the effects of these concepts upon U.S. intelligence underestimates in the 1960s and arms control strategies in the 1970s. See also Mihalka, 1982, for a largely sympathetic treatment of the Horelick-Rush "bluffing upwards" model of Soviet deception in the 1957-1962 period. "How Russia Hides Its Missiles," Foreign Report. London: The Economist Newspaper Limited, March 5, 1981, pp. 1-3. Two allegedly top-secret American intelligence reports are summarized by Foreign Report which indicated the variety of techniques the Russians used over the past two decades to disguise their nuclear _ weapons from western intelligence. The Molander Report prepared for the National Security Council in 1979 on Soviet compliance with SALT I, and SALT II verifiability is summarized. It is reported that the Russians developed an elaborate system of concealment and deception. Fifteen concealment techniques are identified. Ianov, Maj. Gen. Arty M., "On the Methods of Influencing an Opponent's Decisions," Voennaia mysl', No. 12, December 1971. In USAF, Selected Readings from Military Thought, 1963-1973, Vol. 5, pt. 2, GPO, 1982, pp. 164-171. Katz, Amrom H., Radar, Strategy and Political Intent: A Discussion, R&D Associates, Marina Del Rey, CA, SA/044-259/78, July 1978, 128 pp. A study of the strategic implications of Soviet defensive electronic systems and interactions with U.S. intelligence. Includes a collection of articles relevant to maskirovka. Kir'ian, M.M., "Vnezapnost "' [Surprise], Sovetskaia Voennaia Entsiklopediia. Moscow: Voenizdat, Vol. 2, 1976, pp. 161-163. (see section on Surprise Attack and Deception) Lambeth, Benjamin S., Risk and Uncertainty in Soviet Deliberations About War, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report No. R-2687-AF, October 1981, 28 pp. A survey of the elements of risk, uncertainty, and unpredictability that might moderate Soviet behavior and undermine the confidence with which Soviet decisionmakers would consider entering into a major military conflict with the United States. It describ es certain realities of Soviet style and leadership concern about possible Soviet military inadequacies that make the more ominous features of Soviet doctrine and force development appear somewhat less alarming. - 97 - USSR Military Deception Lee, William T., "Debate over U.S. Strategic Forecasts: A Poor Record," Strategic Review, Vol. 7, Summer 1980, pp. 44-57. Levin, Col. V., and Col. V. Kolchevsky, "Engineer Camouflage," Soviet Military Review, No. 4, April 1981, pp. 42-44. Limny, A., and A. Gorkin, "The Effectiveness of Maskirovka" [in Russian], Voennaia Vestnik, No. 5, 1980, pp. 83-85. Malisov, Col. Iu, "Maskirovka--delo vazhoe," [Concealment and Deception], Voennyi Vestnik, No. 12, December 1979. "Masking [maskirovka] of the attacks in Europe and the Pacific," in Army General S.P. Ivanov (general editor), Nachal'nyi period voiny [The Initial Period of War]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1974, pp. 160-176. Describes German and Japanese political and "operational-strategic" deception measures before the start of WWII. Matsulenko, Maj. Gen. Viktor Antonovich, "World War II Soviet Camouflage Operations Described," Voenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, Moscow, in Russian, No. 1, January 1975 signed to press December 24, 1974, pp. 10-21. Concerns the Wisla-Oder operation, carried out by forces of the 1st Belorussian and 1st Ukrainian fronts in World War II. The Soviet command concealed from the enemy the starting time for the operation, its scale and in part, the directions of the main at tacks. Misinformation measures contributed to the unexpectedness of the offensive and therefore to its successful implementation. Matsulenko, Maj. Gen. Viktor Antonovich, "Tactical Camouflage of Soviet Troops in the First and Second Periods of the War," Voenna-Istorscheskii zhurnal, Moscow: Russian, No. 1, January 1972, signed to press December 1971, pp. 11-20, translated on USSR Mi litary Affairs, No. 785, JPRS No. 55246, February 22, 1972. Defines tactical camouflage as a complex of diversified measures carried out by command elements for the purpose of deceiving the enemy on the nature of imminent troop actions, a plan of operation, scale, time, as well as the physical concealment of frien dly troops and military installations. Camouflage is one of the principal means of achieving tactical surprise. Cites examples of camouflage used in various Soviet confrontations. Matsulenko, Maj. Gen. Viktor Antonovich, Operativnaia Maskirovka Voisk (Po Opymn vedikoy otechostvennoy voyny) [Operational Military Camouflage and Deception: Based on the experience of the Great Patriotic War]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1975, 198 pp. The author reveals improvements in methods of cover and deception, and shows its planning and accomplishment, the art of commanders and the - 98 - USSR Military Deception expertise of soldiers. This is one of the significant Soviet studies on denial and deception activities, drawing heavily upon World War II experiences. Mihalka, Michael, "Soviet Strategic Deception, 1955-1981." In John Gooch and Amos Perlmutter (eds.), Military Deception and Strategic Surprise. London: Frank Cass & Co., 1982, pp. 40-93. The author describes and evaluates deception and the debate over Soviet pursuit of strategic superiority. This article examines Soviet procurement of and claims about nuclear weapons their accompanying delivery systems. This study relies in substantial me asure upon Soviet public pronouncements. It disputes the conclusion of W. Harris [A SALT Safeguards Program, 1979; Counterintelligence Jurisdiction, 1980] that the Soviets biased indicators of ICBM missile accuracy to protect counter-MINUTEMAN missions of the Strategic Rocket Forces in the 1960s, but does not draw upon the evidence utilized by Harris. The Mihalka article tends to support, with further quotations, the _ "bluffing upwards" hypothesis of Horelick and Rush, published in 1965. Ostrich, John T. Jr., and William C. Green, "Methodological Problems Associated with the IISS Military Balance," Comparative Strategy, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 151-171. A critique of the IISS annual. report, Military Balance, that examines four main areas in which current methodology used to produce this book allows arbitrariness and inconsistencies to occur which indicate serious problems with the methodologies used in its compilation. Ostryakov, Sergei Zakharovich, Voyenne Chekisty [Military Chekists]. Moscow: Voyenizdat, 1979, 320 pp. Quester, George H., "On the Identification of Real and Pretended Communist Military Doctrine," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 10, June 1966, pp. 172-179. (See sections on General Deception Studies and China: Military and Political Deception.) Reid, Clifford, "Reflexive Control in Soviet Military Planning," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 39 pp. (See section on General Deception Studies.) An important synthesis of Soviet studies of Vladimir Lefebvre, et al., on "reflexive control" as a Soviet paradigm for maskirovka in strategic and operational deception. Reitz, James T., Lexicon of Selected Soviet Terms Relating to Maskirovka (Deception), Washington, DC: Dept. of Defense, Defense Intelligence Agency, International Applications Office, October 1983, 52 pp. A compendium of terms and concepts relating to the general topic of maskirovka (deception), this DIA study discusses the broad range of actions embodied within the meaning of the word, indicates how deeply ingrained and central to the conduct of wartime a nd peacetime military - 99 - USSR Military Deception and political activities the concept of maskirovka is, and attempts to resolve some of the differences in understanding among Soviet studies specialists. Included are related expressions derived from official Soviet military lexicons currently in use, wit h references to Soviet publications. Reznichenko, Lt. Gen. V., "Creativity in Tactics Urged," Krasnaia Zvezda, Moscow, Russian, December 28, 1971, pp. 2-3. Translated on USSR Military Affairs, No. 779, JPRS 55128, February 7, 1972. A view that innovation in tactics is manifested by means of the continuous improvement of its theoretical recommendations in battle and on exercises. "During the first postwar decade, main attention in the development of tactics was turned to the investig ation and generalization of the war which had taken place." "Role of Soviet Secret Police in the Occupation of Czechoslovakia," Radio Free Europe, September 16, 1968. Report surveys available information on presumed infiltration and activities of Russian KGB agents in Czechoslovakia, based on limited data. Savkin, Col. V. Ye., "Surprise," Military Review, April 1974, pp. 84-91. "Secret report claims Carterites hid Soviet tricks to aid SALT II," Washington Times, August 24, 1983, p. 6A. Sejna, Jan, We Will Bury You. London: Sidgwick and Jackson, Ltd., 1982, 205 pp. Summarizes the thesis of General Sejna, former Chief of Staff to the Czech Minister of Defense, and an aide to the Czech Defense Council, that Soviet deception activities are largely linked to a 15-year Strategic Plan. Shchedrov, V., "Camouflaging Troops During Regrouping and Maneuvers," Voennaia Mys1', No. 6, 1966. Shimanskii , Col. A., USSR, About the Achievement of Strategic Surprise in the Summer-Fall Campaign of 1944 [in Russian], Voyenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 6, 1968, pp. 17-28. Joint Publications Research Service Series, No. 46237, August 20, 1968. Englis h translation available as 1944 Summer-Fall Campaign on the Eastern Front. Soviet Military Translations No. 467. Shtemenko, Army General S.M., General'nyi shtab gody voiny ["The General Staff during the War Years"]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1968; English translation as The Soviet General Staff at War, 1941-1945. Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1970. The first Soviet account to reveal how their General Staff systematically incorporated deception plans into each operation, - 100 - USSR Military Deception implicitly showing the increasing sophistication of Soviet deception through World War II. Shutov, Cole. Z., M. Sc., "Surprise," Soviet Military Review, November 1975, pp. 55-56. Asserts that even before World War II, Soviet military theory had correctly estimated the importance of surprise. "Surprise ensures success not by itself but in combination with other factors." The article recounts Russia's use of the surprise factor in W orld War II, and its effectiveness in gaining victory. Sidorenko, Col. A.A., The Offensive: A Soviet View. United States Air Force Translation, 1970, 228 pp. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) An important Soviet study of surprise and war initiative. Simakov, Col. Ye, "Operational Camouflage of Air Assets," Soviet Military Review, 1982. Simakov, Col. Ye, "Operativnaia maskirovka VVS v nastupatel'nykh operatsiiakh" [VVS (Air Force) surprise and deception during offensive operations], Voenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 12, 1977, pp. 19-26. Published under the heading "The Great Patriotic Wa r and the Postwar Period." Describes measures that were taken in World War II to create dummy airfields and planes, the camouflaging of operational ones, and the very strict observance of camouflage discipline. "Sovetskii organy gosudarst - vennoi bezopastnost v Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny," Voprosy istorii, No. 5, May 1965, pp. 20-39. ["Soviet Organs of State Security in the Years of the Great Patriotic War," Problems of History, May 1965. English Summary on p p. 219-220.] (See sections on Historical Studies and Surprise Attack and Deception.) This article refers to various Soviet deception accomplishments, all too briefly highlighted. Includes references to: NKGB deception of German intelligence before Orel-Kursk offensive, May-July 1943; Karelian offensive, June 10, 1944; Belorussian offensiv e, June 23, 1944; Kishenev offensive, August 20, 1944; German underestimate of Russian military strength, 1940-1942. Stepanov, Yu G., Maskirovka of Radioelektronnogo Nabluvedniia [Camouflage from Electronic Surveillance]. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1963. Stevens, Jennie A., and Henry S. Marsh, "Surprise and Deception in Soviet Military Thought," Military Review, June 1982, pp. 2-5; July 1982, pp. 24-35. Article focuses on the Soviet use of deception, which provides the principal means for achieving surprise. Assesses four major - 101 - USSR Military Deception categories of Soviet deceptive practices in detail to provide a more complete understanding of this concept's diverse potential applications. Include: concealment, imitation, demonstration maneuvers and disinformation. Stueck, William, "The Soviet Union and the Origins of the Korean War," World Politics, Vol. XXVIII, No. 4, July 1976, pp. 622-635. A review of Robert R. Simmons' book, The Strained Alliance: Peking, Pyongyang, Moscow and the Politics of the Korean Civil War. Simmons analyzes politics in North Korea and concludes that the Kremlin approved of and anticipated the June 24, 1950 invasion by North Korean forces. Suvorov, Viktor, [pseud.], "GUSM: The Soviet Service of Strategic Deception," International Defense Review, Vol. 18, No. 8, September 1985, pp. 1235-1240. A former GRU officer assesses the role of a Principal Directorate for Strategic Deception (GUSM) within the Soviet General Staff, between 1968 and the present. Suvorov, Viktor, [pseud.], Inside Soviet Military Intelligence. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co., 1984, 193 pp. Written by Suvorov, a former Soviet Army officer writing pseudonymously, on the GRU--Soviet military intelligence. Suvorov, Viktor, The Liberators: My Life in the Soviet Army. New York, NY: W.W. Norton, 1983, 202 pp. Tolochkov, M.I., Maskirovka v sovremenennom boiu [Camouflage in Modern Combat], 2d ed. rev. and enl. Moscow: Izd-vo DOSAAF, 1975, 88 pp. Ulsamer, Edgar, "The Fog of War," Air Force Magazine, October 1985. Discusses and provides in summary fashion comments concerning Soviet tactical deception from 1979 to the present. Valenta, Jiri, "Soviet Use of Surprise and Deception," Survival, Vol. 24, March/April 1982, pp. 50-61. "Addresses the evolution of Soviet views and practices regarding deception and strategic surprise since World War II in the area of conventional warfare." According to the author, the real test of Soviet mastery of deception techniques and strategic surpr ise would come only during a conflict with NATO countries. Valenta, Jiri, "From Prague to Kabul: The Mode of Soviet Invasions," International Security, Vol. 5, Fall 1980, pp. 114-141. - 102 - USSR Military Deception Vasendin, Maj. Gen. N., and Kuznetsov, Col. N., "Modern Warfare and' Surprise Attack," Voyennaia mysl' [Military Thought], No. 6, 1966. In U.S. Air Force, Selected Readings from Military Thought 1963-1973, Vol. 5, pt. 1, 1982. Washington, DC: GPO, 1982, pp. 226-233. Vasilev, Col. P., "Ob operativno-strategicheskoi dezinformatsii vo vtoroi mirovoi voine. Po opytu inostrannykh armii" [On Operational-Strategic Deception in World War II], Voenna-Istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 3, 1962, pp. 41-52. Vigor, Peter H., Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983. (See section on Surprise Attack and Deception.) Whaley, Barton S., "Surprise in the Manchurian Model: The Soviet General Staff's Talent for Strategic Surprise and Deception Planning," draft, July 1975, 107 pp. A single case study of the Soviet Union's full-scale invasion of _ Japanese-held Manchuria on August 9, 1945 and how they achieved nearly complete strategic (and tactical) surprise. Findings partially incorporated into Despres, Dzirkals, and Whaley report of 1976. Whaley, Barton, Public Diplomacy Aspects of the Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. Medford, MA: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, ch. 5, "Invasion, Deception as the Key to Surprise," 1969, pp. 31-49. Revised in Gregory Henderson (ed.), Public Diplomacy and Political Change. New York: Praeger, 1973. Wishnevsky, Julia, "Information on the Operation of Glavlit Section No. 2," Radio Liberty Research, RL 494/76, December 8, 1976, 10 pp. Yefimov, V.A., and S.G. Chermashchentsev, "Maskirovka," Sovetskaia Voyennaia Entsiklopediia [Soviet Military Encyclopedia]. Moscow: Voyenizdat, Vol. 5, 1978, pp. 175-177. Translated in USAF, Soviet Military Concepts, February 1979. Zakharchenko, Major-General of Artillery A.P., "Voennaia khitrost' v sovremennom boiu" [Stratagem in Modern Combat], Vestnik protivovozdushnoi oborony, No. 9, 1970, pp. 7-10. Lists ways in which military stratagem can be used: skillful employment in modern combat; as an important element of the operational-tactical training of the commander, etc. Zimmerman, William, "The missile age and post-Stalinist Soviet foreign policy: a review," of Horelick and Rush's Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. X, No. 4, December 1966, pp. 524-528. - 103 - USSR Political Deception USSR POLITICAL DECEPTION Abd An-Nasir, Jamal. Speech, Cairo University, February 22, 1967, on Radio Cairo, Domestic Service in Arabic, 1620 GMT (February 22, 1967). (Egyptian president Nasir's disbelief of UAR intelligence on U.S.-Turkey-Iraq contingency plan for Syria, 1957.) Veiled reference to Soviet deception plan in May 1957. Agursky, Mikhail, and Hannes Adomeit, "The Soviet Military-Industrial Complex," Survey, Vol. 24, No. 544, April 2, 1980, pp. 1-11. An analysis of the Soviet military-industrial situation. A lack of technological sophistication in the USSR and their military-industrial inefficiency does not mean that their military power is politically and militarily ineffective. Alexiev, Alexander R., The Soviet Campaign Against INF: Strategy, Tactics, Means. Santa Monica, CA: The Rand Corporation, Note N-2280-AF, February 1985. "Ambiguous Russian Salesman: Victor Yevgenyevich Louis," New York Times, August 12, 1967, p. 26. Ardamatskiy, Vasiliy Ivanovich, Vozmezdiye [Retribution]. Moscow: Molodaya Grardiya, 1968, 591 pp. Utilizes archival material on OGPU entrapment of Boris Savinkov in 1924. Barghorn, Frederick, The Soviet Cultural Offensive. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1960. ' Barron, John, KGB Today: The Hidden Hand. New York: Reader's Digest Press, 1983, 489 pp. Notes, including bibliographical notes. An important segment of this book is devoted to what the Soviets call "active measures." A major section of the book sets forth information provided the author in his interviews with Major Stanislav Levchenko, KGB officer specializing in Soviet "active me asures" at his post in Japan until his defection to the U.S. in 1979. Material on the KGB's major efforts to obtain advanced American industrial, scientific and technical information and materials through clandestine collection are included in the book. Barron, John, KGB: The Secret Work of Soviet Secret Agents. New York, NY: Reader's Digest Press, 1974, 462 pp.; New York: Bantam Books, 1974, pp. 109-110, ch. 8, "Disinformation: Poisoning Public Opinion," pp. 223-253, 431. - 104 - USSR Political Deception Beichman, Arnold, "Soviet Active Measures and Democratic Culture," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 33 pp. (see section on Behavior of Targets of Deception) Binder, David, "Journalists Foiled Plot to Justify Invasion," The Times, September 6, 1968, p. 7 Work of Czech news service, CTK, in foiling Soviet disinformation plans. Bittman, Ladislav, The KGB and Soviet Disinformation: An Insider's View. New York: Pergamon-Brassey's, 1985, 216 pp. The author served as Deputy Chief of the Czech STB's Disinformation Department before defecting in 1968. This volume has not yet been reviewed. Bittman, Ladislav, "Soviet Bloc 'Disinformation' and other 'Active - Measures.'" In R.L. Pfatzgraff, Uri Ra'anan, and Warren Milberg (eds.), Intelligence Policy and National Security. Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1981. Bittman, Ladislav, The Deception Game: Czechoslovak Intelligence in Soviet Political Warfare. New York: Syracuse University Research Corp., Vol. XXV, 1972, 246 pp. (See section on Historical Studies.) Blackstock, Paul W., Agents of Deceit: Frauds, Forgeries and Political Intrigue Among Nations. Chicago, IL: Quadrangle Books, 1966, 315 pp. Bibliographical notes. Presents several case studies of political forgeries, from Peter the Great's Testament to the Cold War. Particularly pertinent with respect to "disinformation" operations. Blackstock, Paul W., "'Books for Idiots': False Soviet 'Memoirs'," The Russian Review, Vol. 25, July 1966, pp. 285-296. Bloch-Morhange, Jacques, Operation Fechteler. Paris: Editions Jean-Claude, 1953, 115 pp. Brodie, Bernard, "Military Demonstration and Disclosure of New Weapons," World Politics, Vol. V, No. 3, April 1953, pp. 281-301. Bukovsky, Vladimir, Illusion in the West's Pacifists Against Peace. Santa Monica, CA: California Seminar on International Security, Discussion Paper 103, December 1984. Bukovsky, Vladimir, "The Peace Movement and the Soviet Union," Commentary, May 1982, pp. 1-36. - 105 - USSR Political Deception Carynnik, Marco, "The Famine the 'Times' Couldn't Find," Commentary, No. 76, November 1983, pp. 32-40 (New York Times correspondent Walter Duranty and the Ukrainian famine of 1933-1934). Clews, John C., Communist Propaganda Techniques. New York, NY: Praeger, 1964, Part 4, "A Propaganda Case History: Bacterial Warfare," pp. 177-268. Conquest, Robert, "Ideology and Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 25 pp. Debo, Richard K., "Lockhart Plot or Dzerzhinskiy Plot?" Journal of Modern History, No. 42, September 1971, pp. 413-439. "Department D at Work," Foreign report No. 1052. London, The Economist, May 2, 1968, at pages 7-8. On the KGB's Department "D" and its late chief, General Agayants, with data on its Hungarian counterpart, the Aktiv Intezkedesek Alosztalya, AVH. "Disinformation: War With Words," Air Force, March 1982, pp. 85-87. The staff of Air Force magazine looks at the soviet disinformation, which is sizable and amply demonstrated. Douglass, Joseph D. Jr., "Soviet Strategic Deception," Strategic Science, August 1984, pp. 87-99. Soviet deception today continues unabated. Themes introduced in the 1950s have been modernized and expanded. However, there has not been a concerted effort to find out what Soviet strategic deception is or how effective it has been, or if there is any bel ief in Soviet long-range plan and strategic objectives. Douglass, Joseph D., Jr., "Soviet Disinformation," Strategic Review, Vol. 9, No. 1, Winter 1981, pp. 16-26. An analysis of the urgent need to attack the problem of Soviet intentions and disinformation, consistent with the Soviets' emphasis on the principle of surprise. Douglass states, "An obvious need is to study more intensively the 'anatomy' of Soviet disinf ormation-- its purveyors, tactics, themes and objectives--and to integrate the findings into the intelligence process." He states that the solution to the rising problem lies in a more rigorous, comprehensive and skeptical assessment of all dimensions of the data base in which intelligence estimates are steeped. (See section on USSR Military Deception.) Dziak, John J., "The Organizational and Operational Tradition of Soviet Deception: An Historical Sampling," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985. - 106 - USSR Political Deception Mr. Dziak, a production manager at the Defense Intelligence Agency, reviews peacetime political deception operations, including the Lockhard case in 1918, the Trust operation in 1921-1927, the Tukhachevskiy Affair in 1937, the WiN case in 1947-1952, and o thers. Eldredge, Prof. H. Wentworth (U.S.), "Political-Psychological Warfare by a Coalition," Lecture delivered on June 18, 1962, Nato Defense College, 15 pp., in NATO Letter, June 1962, pp. 2-7; July-August, pp. 2-7. A talk divided into three parts: 1) discusses the "milieu" in which "political-psychological operations" must be conducted; 2) considers political-psychological warfare at a national level, analyzed first at a national level; and 3) coalition action in th e political psychological field by the Western community. Concludes that the most important weapons of political-psychological warfare are important real acts used as symbols. Fomin, Fedor Timofeyevich, Zapiski Storogo Chekista [Memoirs of an Old Chekist]. Moscow: Politizdat, 1962. Revised edition 1964, 254 pp. JPRS Translation 55688, April 12, 1972, 162 pp. Freemantle, Brian, KCB. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1982, 1984. Discusses KGB successes, including (in an infelicitous sequence) "Disinformation," chapter 9. Godson, Roy (ed.), Disinformation: Soviet Active Measures and Disinformation Forecast. Washington, DC: Regnery-Gateway Inc., Vol. I, No. 1, Fall 1985. This journal will review Soviet political deception activities and opportunities. Gold, Herbert, "Would You Buy A Used Manuscript From This Man?" New York Times Magazine, January 31, 1971, pp. 12-13, 32-34, 35. Golitsyn, Anatoliy, New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception and Disinformation. New York: Dodd, Mead & Co., 1984, 412 pp- Golitsyn, now an American citizen, was formerly in the Soviet State Security Service (now the KGB), and held increasingly important positions until defecting from his post in Finland in December 1961. He brought invaluable information about Soviet agents in the West as well as on Soviet uses and techniques of disinformation to mask its over all politico-military strategies. The book focuses mainly on what Golitsyn thinks are major Soviet disinformation operations and the role of the KGB in that work. Reli ability through period of personal knowledge (1961) is not evidenced for post-1961 narrative. - 107 - USSR Political Deception Grant, Natalie, "Disinformation," Stanford, CA: The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace, 1974, MS. Grant, Natalie, "Forgery in International Affairs," Foreign Service Journal, No. 47, May 1970, pp. 31-2, 46. Grant, Natalie, "The Value of a Forgery." Stanford, CA: Hoover Institute on War, Revolution, and Peace, 1964, MS. Grant, Natalie, "Disinformation," in "Bear and Dragon: What is the Relation Between Moscow and Peking?" Supplement to National Review, (November 5, 1960), 5-41-6. Cf. Donald S. Zagoria, The Sino-Soviet Conflict, 1956-60. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Universit y Press, 1962, at 403n1. A carefully researched piece, and a basic introduction to the political uses of disinformation, fed through knowing and unknowing channels. Grant, Natalie, Communist Psychological Offensive: Distortions in the Translation of Official Documents. Washington, DC: Research Institute of the Sino-Soviet Bloc, Pamphlet n. 1., 1961, 20 pp. Haselkorn, Avigdor, "Anticipating the Next Arab-Israeli Round, Soviet Deception in Syria," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 42 pp. Hazan, Barukh A., Soviet Propaganda: A Case Study of the Middle East Conflict. New York, NY: Wiley, 1976, 293 pp. Heller, Michael, "Old Lies, New Lies - and Disinformation: Re: Anatoly Golitsyn's "New Lies for Old," Midstream, Vol. 31, No. 1, January 1985, pp. 50-54. Heritage Foundation, "Soviet Disinformation - Forty Years Later," National Security Record, No. 78, April 1985, p. 3. Hingley, Ronald, The Russian Mind. New York, NY: Chas. Scribner's Sons, 1977. A key concept of the Russian psyche is vranyo, defined as 'lies, fibbing, nonsense, idle talk.' A look into what vranyo has meant throughout Russian history. Hingley, Ronald, "Kremlinological Inexactitudes," Soviet Analyst, Vol. 1, No. 12, August 3, 1972, pp. 2-5; (Part 2), Vol. 1, No. 13, August 17, 1972, pp. 1-5; (Conclusion) Vol. 2, No. 14, August 31, 1972, pp. 3-6. An article about Russia and the Russians, which, on the basis of experience and insight, gives an aspect of that largely unknown culture to people in the West. Gives an explanation of the Russian word vranyo and defines the word (akin to blarney). - 108 - USSR Political Deception Horelick, Arnold L., and Myron Rush, Strategic Polder and Soviet Foreign Policy. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1965, Part II, "The Politics of Soviet Missile Deception, 1957-61," pp. 33-102; Part III, "Strategic Power and Soviet Foreign Policy," Chap. 9, "The Missile Deception in Soviet Foreign Policy, 1957-62," pp. 105-116. (see section on USSR - Military Deception) A reminder of the role of deception in intelligence errors. For criticisms of an unduly "rational" conception in Horelick's and Rush's analysis of Soviet policy process, see Allison, Essence of Decision. Hotz, Robert, "Lockheed U-2 Over Sverdlovsk: A Study in Fabrication," Aviation Week, Vol. 72, May 26, 1960, pp. 20-21. Joshua, Wynfred, "Soviet Manipulation of the European Peace Movement," Strategic Review, Winter 1983, pp. 9-18. A review, by a senior DIA analyst, of the Soviet Union's use of "peace" campaigns aimed at reminding Europeans of the destruction of World War II and concomitant fears of a new and more devastating nuclear conflict. Because most people want peace and fear war, these campaigns are effectively veiled to Western target audiences to convince them that they are supporting something else instead of unwittingly supporting Soviet policy. See the more recent study by Clive Rose. Kabes, Vladimir, and Alfons Sergot, Blueprint of Deception: Character and Record of the International Association of Democratic Lawyers. s'Gravenhage: Mouton, 1957, 365 pp. Kiraly, Bela, "How Russian Trickery Throttled Revolt," Life, Vol. 42, February 18, 1957, pp. 119-120+. Kirkpatrick, Jeanne (ed.), The Strategy of Deception. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus & Co., 1963. Labin, Suzanne, I1 est moins cinq: Propagande et infiltration sovietiques. Paris: Ed. Berger-Levrault, 2d ed., 1960, 131 pp.; as The Techniques of Soviet Propaganda. U.S. Congress, Senate, Commission on the Judiciary, Internal Security Subcommittee. Print . Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1960, 38 pp.; revised ed. 1967; also in Chinese, Spanish, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, and Vietnamese. Labin, Suzanne, The Unrelenting War: A Study of the Strategy and Techniques of Communist Propaganda and Infiltration. New York, NY: American-Asian Education Exchange, 1960, 47 pp. LeCoeur, Auguste, La strategie du mensonge: du Kremlin a Georges Marchais. Paris: Editions Ramsay, 1980, 226 pp. - 109 - USSR Political Deception Leggett, George H., The Cheka: Lenin's Political Police: The A11-Russian Extraordinary Commission for Combating Counterrevolution and Sabotage, December 1917 to February 1922. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1981, 514 pp. Leggett, Robert, and Sheldon Rabin, "A Note on the Meaning of the Soviet Defense Budget," Soviet Studies, Vol. 30, No. 4, October 1978, pp. 557-566. Leites, Nathan, A Study of Bolshevism, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, Report R-239. Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1953, Pt. 3, Chap. 13, "Deception," pp. 324-340. Leites, Nathan, The Operational Code of the Politburo. New York, Toronto, and London: McGraw-Hill, 1951, esp. ch. 1, "Predictability and Unpredictability," pp. 1-4; ch. 12, "Deception," pp.47-49. Licklider, Roy E., "The Missile Gap Controversy," Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 85, December 1970, pp. 600-615. Manny, Erik de, "Victor Louis, le trapeziste de la desinformation" [Victor Louis, the Trapeze Artist of Disinformation], L'Express, Paris, May 5, 1981, pp. 90-33. McConaughy, John B., "A review of Soviet psychological warfare," Military Review, 40:3-13, December 1960. Monahan, James, and Kenneth 0. Gilmore, The Great Deception: The Inside Story of Horn the Kremlin Took Over Cuba. New York, NY: Farrar, Strauss, 1963, 213 pp. Morris, Willie, How the Arab/Israeli War of June, 1967 Happened. Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, November 1967, 81 pp. Mowbray, Stephen de, "Soviet Deception and the Onset of the Cold War: The British Documents for 1943--A Lesson in Manipulation," Encounter, No. 62, July-August 1984, pp. 16-24. Nikulin, Lev Ven'yaminovich, Mertvaya zyb'. Moscow: Voyenizdat, 1965, 359 pp. JPRS Translation as The Swell of the Sea, JPRS 55686, 1972, 237 pp. Orionova, Galina, and Leonid Finkelstein, "Interview Given by First Defector from Arbatov's American Institute," Intelligence Report. Chicago, IL: American Bar Association, September 1981, pp. 6-8. Orionova, Galina, "Escape from Boredom: A Defector's Story," Atlantic, November 1980, pp. 42-50. - 110 - USSR Political Deception Price, Rep. Melvin. Remarks, and document on "Communist forgeries," Congressional Record, Daily Ed., September 28, 1965, in Paul W. Blackstock, Agents of Deceit, at pp. 277-286. Ra'anan, Uri, "Deception in the Political-Military Arena," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 21 pp. Radvanyi, Janos, Delusion and Reality: Gambits, Hoaxes and Diplomatic One-Upsmanship in Vietnam. South Bend, IN: Gateway Editions, 1978, 295 pp. Rees, John, "Infiltration of the Media by the KGB and Its Friends," Accuracy in Media Conference, Washington, DC, April 20, 1978, 37 pp. Revel, Jean-Francois, with assistance of Branko Lazitch, Comment lei democraties finissent. Paris: Editions Grasset & Fasquelle, 1983. Translated by William Byron as How Democracies Perish. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, ch. 16, "Ideological Warfare and Disi nformation," 1984, _ pp. 160-187. Romerstein, Herbert, The World Peace Council and Soviet Active Measures, n.p., July 1982. Rose, Clive, Campaigns Against Western Defence: NATO's Adversaries and Critics. New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 1985; London: Macmillan (RUSI Defence Studies Series), 1985, ix + 318 pp. A thorough review of Soviet propaganda operations, with careful historical treatment of the institutions involved in Soviet disinformation and propaganda campaigns. Rose properly distinguishes between "critics" and "adversaries." See also CIA's study, rel eased in 1980, Soviet Covert Action and Propaganda, and James Tyson's Target America. Rosenfielde, Steven, False Science: Underestimating the Soviet Arms Buildup. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1985, 2d ed. Rosenfielde, Steven, "Postwar Soviet Strategic Deception," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, 23 pp. Sager, Peter, Moskaus Hand in Indien: Untersuchung Uber die sowjetische Propaganda in Indien. Bern: Schweizerisches Ost Institut, 1966, 232 pp. Trans. as Moscow's Hand in India: An Analysis of Soviet Propaganda. Bern: Swiss Eastern Institute, 1966, 224 pp .; Bombay: Lalvani, 1967, 224 pp. Shultz, Richard H. and Roy Godson, Dezinformatsia: Active Measures in Soviet Strategy. Washington: Pergamon-Brassey's, 1984, 211 pp. Primarily a look at Soviet active measures, written in readable prose, with many examples of these Soviet actions and extensive media analysis. Begins with a short description of the Soviet structure and - 111 - USSR Political Deception techniques for propaganda, both overt and covert, and emphasizes the period 1960-1980. Then discusses Soviet overt propaganda themes, partly through content analysis, and shows how these themes are targeted by covert political techniques (in large measure through KGB handling) in such fields as international front organizations, agents of influence, and forgeries. The authors describe the import case of the French journalist-agent Pierre-Charles Pathe, whose efforts in this field ended with his imprisonme nt and conviction as a Soviet agent in 1979. Chapter V is devoted to interviews, in question and answer form, with two major defectors in the field of active measures-Stanislav Levchenko, and Ladislav Bittman. Staar, Richard F., Espionage and Active Measures, Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1985. Chapters: Organization; Prominent Espionage Cases; Diplomats as Spies; Agents of Influence; Lower-Level Recruitment; Support for Coups and Terrorism; and Disinformation and Murder. This volume details the course of Soviet foreign policy: the personalities , structures, and techniques; the goals for countries that are on the "road to revolutionary democracies;" and policies toward non-Communist states. Strausz-Hupe, Robert, "Soviet Psychological Strategy," U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 87:22-28, June 1961. Struve, Gleb (ed.), "Noyoye o Treste" [New Materials about 'Trust'], Noviy Zhurnal, No. 125, 1976, pp. 194-214. Sulc, Lawrence B., Active Measures, Quiet War and Two Socialist Revolutions, The Nathan Hale Institute, 422 1st Street, S.E., Washington, DC 10003, 1985. Symington, Stuart, "Untruthful Attacks on the Central Intelligence Agency," June 2, 1966, in Congressional Record, Vol. 112, pt. 9, 1966, pp. 12072-12073. Alleged disinformation attacks on CIA, with examples. Tsybov, Sergey Ivanovich and Nikolay Fedorovich Chistyakov, Front Taynov voyny [Front of the Secret War]. Moscow: Voychizdat, 1965, 158 pp.; 2d edition 1968, 205 pp. Translated as Front of the Secret War, NTIS No. AD 714 739, 1971, 166 pp. Tyson, James L., "Target America: The Influence of Soviet Propaganda on U.S. Media," Strategic Review, Winter 1982, pp. 70-73. Tyson, James L., Target America: The Influence of Communist Propaganda on U.S. Media. Chicago, IL: Regnery Gateway, Vol. IX, 1981, 284. pp. Examines the influence of Soviet-communist propaganda on the U.S. media. The three themes in the book are: 1) the possible quantity, quality and effectiveness of the Soviet propaganda efforts; 2) the absolute importance of exercising extreme care in the l abeling or - 112 - USSR Political Deception classifying of the suspect data; and 3) the extent to which the United States seems impotent in identifying, let alone neutralizing, the Soviet effort. Ulsamer, Edgar, "Moscow's Misinformation Pays Off," Air Force Magazine, November 1978, pp. 88-90. "Un 'historien' de l'ecole Bessedovsky--V. Alexandrov," in Boris Souvarine, ed., Est & Ouest. Paris: No. 196, June 1-15, 1958, pp. 9-10. An anonymous but scholarly and humorous, if at times caustic piece on Bessedovsky, Aleksandrov, and others, alleged to be purveyers of fabricated "secrets of the Kremlin." U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Operations, Soviet Covert Action and Propaganda. Washington, DC: released February 6, 1980, iii + 93 pp. - Pagination varies. This sanitized monograph includes assessments of Soviet institutions, their reso urces, and types of disinformation operations detected. U.S. Congress, House, Congressional Record, 98th Cong., 1st Session, March 24, 1983, Vol. 129, No. 39, pp. H-1791-H-1993. Remarks by C.W. Bill Young. Remarks on Soviet Union: Influence on U.S. Nuclear Freeze Movement. Contains FBI Intelligence Division report on Soviet active measures relating to the U.S. peace movement. U.S. Congress, House, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Soviet Active Measures, 97th Congress, 2d Session, 1982, 337 pp. Testimony of Major Stanislav Levchenko, KGB officer specializing in Soviet "active measures" at his post in Japan until his defection to the U.S. in 1979. U.S. Congress, House, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Soviet Covert Action (The Forgery Offensive), 96th Congress, 2d Session, 1980, 245 pp. Testimony of John McMahon, Deputy Director of Operations, CIA, et al. and Ladislav Bittman, former Deputy Chief of the Disinformation Department of the Czechoslovak Intelligence Service. Also included is CIA's lengthy study: "Soviet Covert Action and Prop aganda," 1980. U.S. Congress, House, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. The CIA and the Media, CIA Report on Soviet Propaganda Operations, 95th Congress, 1st and 2d Sessions, 1978, pp. 531-627. U.S. Congress, House, Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on the Central Intelligence Agency, Statement of Lazslo Szabo, March 17, 1966. Washington, DC: GPO, 1966, section on "Disinformation," pp. 5347-5348. - 113 - USSR Political Deception U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on the Judiciary, Hearing before the Subcommittee to Investigate the Administration of the Internal Security Act and Other Internal Security Laws, Communist Forgeries. Testimony of Richard Helms, Assistant Director, Centra l Intelligence Agency, 87th Cong., 1st Session. Washington, DC: GPO, June 2, 1961, 121 pp. Richard Helms, of the CIA, divulges information about Communist forgery of documents in the cold war and presents charts and photostats of some of the forgeries. Presented are examples of a false news article, a fabricated intelligence report, the distort ion of a genuine document, and the false or true account attributed to a nonexistent organization. See the 1980 update published by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. U.S. Congress, Senate, committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Internal Security, The Pugwash Conferences: Staff Analysis, 87th Congress, 1st Session, 1961, pp. 1-139. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Forgery, Disinformation, Political Operations, Special Report No. 88, Washington, DC, October 1981, 4 pp. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Soviet Active Measures, Washington, D.C., Special Report No. 101, July 1982. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Soviet Active Measures, Special Report, April 1983. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, Soviet Active Measures, Washington, D.C., Special Report No. 10, September 1983, 8 pp- Vermaat, J.A. Emerson, "Moscow Fronts and the European Peace Movement," Problems of Communism, November-December 1982, pp. 43-56. Warner, Denis, "Who Is Wilfred Burchett?" Reporter, No 36, June 1, 1967, pp. 18-21. Whelan, Joseph G., Soviet Diplomacy and Negotiating Behavior. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, for the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1979. This Library of Congress compendium excerpts studies that illuminate Soviet negotiating behavior. While deceptive aspects of negotiations are not uniquely Soviet, this volume recurringly contributes to an understanding of Soviet negotiating techniques--in cluding deceptive techniques. Whiteside, Thomas, "Annals of Espionage, An Agent in Place--III," The New Yorker, April 9, 1966, pp. 149-150. - 114 - USSR Political Deception "Why Russia Lies," Nation's Business, Vol. 50, December 1962, pp. 42-44, 76-79. Wolfe, Bertram David, "Adventures in Forged Sovietica, Some True Literary Detective Stories." The New Leader, No. 38, July 25, 1955, pp. 13-4; August 1, 1955, pp. 11-4; August 8, 1955, pp. 21-2; revised and abridged as "The Litvinov 'Diaries,' Literary De tective Story," Commentary, No. 22, August 1956, pp. 164-171; revised as "The Strange Case of Litvinov's Diary," ch. 10 in Wolfe, Strange Communists I Have Known. New York, NY: Stein & Day, 1965, at pp. 207-222. Carefully researched piece on a Paris-based "paper mill" and its products in the 1950s, with special attention to "Litvinov's Diary." Wraga, Ryszard [aka: Richard]. "Trest," Vozrozhdenie, Paris, Vol. 7, January 1950, pp. 114-135. Yost, David S., "The Soviet Campaign against INF in West Germany," Paper, Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, September 1985, in Brian Dailey and Patrick Parker (eds.), Soviet Strategic Deception, forthcoming, 1986. - 115 - INDEX Page No. Abd An-Nasir, Jamal 103 Abel, Elie 91 Abelson, Herbert I . 39 Abt, Clark C . 1 Ackerman, Peter 29 Adam, Engr.-Lt. Col. 91 Agursky, Mikhail 103 Akratanakul, Pongthep 21 Alexiev, Alexander R . 103 Ambrose, Stephen E . 51 Amory, John Forth (pseud.) 39 Anderson, Major Ruth M . 76 Andrew, Christopher M . 29 Andriole, Stephen J . 79 Ardamatskiy, Vasiliy Ivanovich 103 Arendt, Hannah 39 Asch, Solomon E . 16 Ashman, Harold Lowell 39 Atkinson, James D . 39 Axelrod, Robert 16, 39, 76 Azar, Edward E . 76 Bailey, Geoffrey 16 Bailey, Glenn 87 Ball, Desmond 16 Barber, Noel 51 Barghorn, Frederick 103 Barkas, Geoffrey L . 51 Barnds, William J . 39 Barrett, Edward W . 39 Barron, John 103 Bartley, Robert L . 1 Bates, H.W. 74 Batten, James K . 1 Beaumont, Roger 91 Becker, Abraham S . 1, 91 Becker, Howard 39 - 116 - Beecher, William 1 Beichman, Arnold 16, 104 Beketov, Anatolii A . 91 Belden, Thomas G . 76 Bell, J. Bowyer 68 Bennike, Helge 16 Ben-Zvi, Abraham 76, 77 Berezkin, A . 16, 40 Berger, Stephen E . 40 Best, S. Payne 51 Bethell, Tom 1 Betts, Richard K . 16, 29, 51, 77, 78 Biden, Joseph 1 Biderman, Albert D . 40 Binder, David 104 Bittman, Ladislav 51, 104 Blackstock, Paul W . 40, 51, 52, 104 Blackstone, H., Jr. 68 Blair, David 17 Bloch-Morhange, Jacques 104 Blum, Richard H . 29, 58 Blumentritt, Gunther 52 Boetlinger, H.M. 68 Bok, Sissela 25, 68 Boorman, Scott A . 27, 74 Bornstein, Joseph 52 Bosak, Nora 78 Bottome, Edgar 17 Boylan, Edward S . 27 Brackman, J . 68 Brandes, Barbara 71 Brausch, Gerd 17 Broad, William 40 Brodie, Bernard 104 Brodin, Katarina 78 Brody, Richard I . 17, 78 Brower, J. von 74 Brown, Anthony Cave 52 Brown, J.A.C. 40 Brown, Thomas A . 29, 30 Browne, Malcolm W . 40 Brunner, Edmund, Jr . 78 Bukovsky, Vladimir 104 Buranelli, Nan 25 Buranelli, Vincent 25 Burns, Jo Ann 30 Burns, Richard Dean 1, 2 Byfield, Robert S . 40 Cagle, Malcolm W . 52 Callwell, C.E., Col. 40, 52 - 117 - Calvocoressi, Peter 52 Camp, Robert Hyde 40 Campbell, John P . 68 Canter, Rachelle 43, 69 Canzona, Nicholas A . 61 Caras, Roger 74 Caravelli, John M . 91 Carnes, Hugh B . 41 Carrias, Commandant 78 Carroll, John M . 41 Carter, Luther J . 2 Carter, Reed Worrall 52 Carynnik, Marco 105 Chermashchentse, S.G. 96 Chernavin, Victor 17 Chesney, Lt. Col. C.H.R. 52 Chester, Lewis 52 Chistyakov, Nikolay Fedorovich 111 Christopher, Milbourne 68 Churchill, Winston S . 52 Cimbala, Stephen J . 30, 79 Clark, G. Kitson 41 Clews, John C . 41, 105 Cohen, Bernard C . 41 Cohen, Samuel T . 91 Colby, Benjamin 53 Cole, Leonard A . 2 Collier, Richard 53 Colvin, Ian Goodhope 53 Conquest, Robert 105 Constantinides, George C . 25 Cook, Jonathan B . 30 Cooper, Sir Alfred Duff 53 Cooper, Steven 71 Corcoran, Thomas G., Jr. 17 Coster, Donald Q . 53 Cott, Hugh B . 74 Courter, James 2, 3, 17 Craig, Col. J.P. (USA) 53 Crommelin, Quentin, Jr . 3 Crosby, P.B. 69 - 118 - Crossman, R.H.S. 41 Cruickshank, Charles G . 53 Daih 79 Daly, Judith Ayres 79 Daniel, Donald C . 18, 41, 44, 79 Daugherty, William E . 42 Davidson, Philip G . 42 Davis, F. 30 Dayan, Moshe 53, 79 Deakin, F.W. 53 Debo, Richard K . 105 de Borchgrave, Arnaud 30 Defrasne, Col. J. 79 de Gaulle, Noel, A.J. 53 DeGraffenreid, Kenneth 30 deGramont, Sanche 53 De Jong, Louis 53, 79 deLeon, Peter 91 Delmer, Sefton 54 Dennelle, Bernard 54 Dening, B.C. 54, 80 Despres, John 80, 91 De Weerd, Harvey Arthur 54, 80 Dilkes, David 18 Dinerstein, Herbert S . 80, 92 Doob, Leonard W . 42 Doran, Charles F . 80 Dorszynski, Julius A . 42 Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 3, 31, 81, 91, 92, 105 Dourlein, Peter 54 Dovring, Karin 42 Drea, Edward J . 81 Drengston, A.R. 31 Drummond, John D . 55 Druzhinin, V.V. 18, 42, 93 Dulles, Allen W . 42 Duvall, Elmer Ellsworth 52 Duncan, Su Sanhg 31 Durham, Leonard E . 42 Dyer, Murray 43 Dziak, John J . 26, 93, 105 Dzirkals, Lilita I . 80, 91, 93 East, John 12 Einhorn, Eric S . 55, 81 Einhorn, Robert J . 3 Ekman, Paul 31 Eldredge, Prof. H. Wentworth 106 Eliscu, William 55 Ellsberg, Daniel 43 Ellson, Douglas G . 31 - 119 - Ellul, J . 43 Epstein, Edward Jay 3, 31, 32, 93 Erdman, David V . 32 Erickson, John 18, 55 Ernst, B.M.L. 69 Eytan, Steve (pseud.) 55 Falk, Douglas F . 70 Farago, Ladislas 55 Fascell, Dante B . 3 Fearnside, W.W. 69 Feer, Frederic S . 32, 93 Fillenbaum, S . 18 Finer, Herman 81 Finkelstein, Leonid 109 Fisher, John 69 Fitzkee, D. 69 Fogel, Ephim G . 32 Fomin, Fedor Timofeyevich 106 Foot, M.R.D. 55, 56 Foote, Alexander 93 Forward, John 43, 69 Fox, John P . 3 Francesco, de G . 69 Frederick the Great (1712-1786) 43 Freedman, Lawrence 18 Freemantle, Brian 32, 93, 106 Friesen, W.V. 31 Frisby, John P . 32 Frontinus, Sextus Julius 43 Fukuyama, Francis 81 Garn, Jake 3 Garnham, David 32 Ganier-Raymond, Philippe 56 Garland, Albert N . 56 Garthoff, Raymond L . 43, 81, 94 Gaudet, Hazel 17 Gazit, Shlomo 18 Gebel, Lt. Col. R. 91 Gelb, Leslie H . 4 George, Alexander L . 43, 56 Gerenz, Ralph F . 32 Gertz, Bill 94 Gibson, W.B. 69 Gilmore, Kenneth 0 . 109 Giskes, H.J. 56 Gitter, A. George 69 Gluckman, Max 69 Goaster, H. Col. L. le. 18 Godson, Roy 106, 110 Goffman, Erving 69 Gold, Herbert 106 - 120 - Goldhamer, Herbert 32 Goldsmith, Robert P . 32 Golitsyn, Anatoliy 106 Golovko, Arseniy G . 56 Gombrich, E.H. 74 Gontaev, Rear Admiral A . 94 Gooch, John 81 Gordeyev, Captain N . 56, 94 Gorkin, A . 97 Gough, General Sir Hubert 56 Goutard, A. 56 Graham, William R . 4 Grant, Natalie 43, 107 Gratus, J . ........................................ 70 Graux, Lucien ' 4 Gray, Colin S . 4 Green, William C . 94, 98 Gregory, R.L. 74 Gresham, W.L. 70 Griego, William L . 32, 33, 43, 60 Griffith, Samuel B., II 27, 82 Grigorenko, Petr Grigorevich 18, 82 Grudinin, Col. I. 44 Grylev, A. 19 Guillemin, Jeanne 21 Gupta, Karunakar 82 Halperin, Morton H . 4 Halpern, Ben 57 Haltom, Margaret Saxton 94 Hampshire, A. Cecil 57 Hand, Lt. Col. Robert P. 82 Handel, Michael I . 44, 82, 83 Haraszti, Eva H . 4 Hare, Hope 75 Harris, William R . 4, 5, 18, 25, 33, 34, 95 Harrison, Gordon A . 57 Harrison, Michael 57 Harrison, Wilson R . 34 Hartcup, Guy 57 Hartmann, Sverre 57, 83 Hartshorne, Hugh 44 ,70 Haraszti, Eva H . 4 Haselkorn, Avigdor 83, 107 Hazan, Barukh A . 107 Helder, Jan 57 Heller, Michel 44, 107 Henderson, G.F.R. 57 Herbig, Katherine L . 18, 41, 44, 79 - 121 - Herzog, Herta 13 Herzog, Major General Chaim 83 Heuer, Richards J., Jr. 18, 19, 34, 35, 41, 95 Heymont, Irving 44 Hingley, Ronald 107 Hinsley, F.H. 19 Hinton, H.E. 74 Hocking, John Edward 35 Hoeber, Amoretta M . 81, 92 Hoehn, William E . 5 Hohne, Heinz 35 Holbrook, S.H. 70 Holst, Johan Jorgen 57, 83 Holt, Robert T . 44 Holther, W.B. 69 Hood, Burton F . 58 Hoover, J. Edgar 58 Horelick, Arnold L . 95, 108 Hotz, Robert 108 Houdini, H . 70 Howard, Michael 83 Howe, Ete 44 Howe, George F . 58 Huff, D. 70 Hummel, William C . 44 Humphrey, Gordon J . 5 Hyman, Herbert H . 35 Ianov, Major General Arty M . 96 Ikle, Fred C . 6 Ionov, Major General M.D. 19 Irving, C. 70 Isaac, Stephen 67 Isaacs, R.P. 44 Ivanov, D.A. 19 Ivanov, General S.P. 83 Jabb (pseud.) 58 Jackson, W.G.F. 58 Jacobsen, Hans-Adolf 19 James, M.E. Clifton 58 Janowitz, Morris 44 Jencks, Harlan W . 27 Jervis, Robert 35, 44 Jones, Lloyd L . 35 Jones, R.V. 44, 45, 70 Joshi, Mohan C . 70 Joshua, Wynfred 108 Kabes, Vladimir 108 Kahn, David 58 Kahneman, Daniel 37 Kam, Ephraim 58 Karber, Phillip A . 84 - 122 - Katz, Amrom H . 6, 96 Katz, Ze'er 55 Kautilya 58 Kearin, Donald 67 Kelley, T.P., Jr. 70 Kemp, Jack 6 Kemp, Percy 58 Kettelle, John D . 6 Khvostov, V. 19 Kieffer, John E . 45 King, Admiral Jerry 84 Kintz, B.L. 30 Kiraly, Bela 108 Kir'ian, M.M. 84, 96 Kirkevold, Barbara C . 70 Kirkpatrick, Jeanne 108 Kirsch, Ned 43, 69 Kishler, John P . 45 Klein, A. 70 Knorr, Klaus 19, 84 Koeltz, Louis 20, 84 Kolchevsky, Col. V. 97 Kontorov, D.S. 18, 42, 82 Kosin, Frank 67 Kukewicz, William P . 1, 6 Kuznetsov, Col. N. 77, 89 Labin, Suzanne 108 Laird, Melvin R . 6, 7, 20 Lambeth, Benjamin S . 96 Lanir, Zvi 84 Lasswell, Harold D . 45 Latter, Albert L . 45 Lau, D.C. 27 Lavine, Harold 45 Leavitt, H.J. 45 Lebow, Richard Ned 84 LeCoeur, Auguste 108 Leghorn, Richard S . 7 Lee, Alfred M . 45 Lee, William T . 97 Lefebvre, Victorina D . 25, 45 Lefebvre, Vladimir A . 25, 45, 46, 70 Leff, A.A. 70 Leggett, George H . 109 Leggett, Robert 109 Leghorn, Richard S . 7 Leighton, Richard M . 58 Leites, Nathan 109 LeMattre, Chef de Bataillon 59, 84 Lerner, Daniel 46, 59 Levin, Col. V. 97 - 123 - Levitt, Geoffrey 7 Levitt, Paul u _____ 74 Levy, Jack S . 85 Licklider, Roy E . 20, 109 Liddell Hart, B.H. 46, 59 Lilienthal, Alfred M . 59 Limny, A. 97 Lin, Yu-yang 46 Lindey, A. 70 Linebarger, Paul M.A. 46 Lippmann, Walter 46 Liskenne, Charles 59 Liss, Ulrich 20 Lloyd, James E . 74 Lockard, Joan S . 70 Lodal, Jan M . 7 Longstreth, Thomas K . 7 Lorell, Mark 60 Lugand, Lt. Colonel 85 Lukens, H. Richard 3 Lumley, Frederick E . 46 Luttwak, Edward N . 20, 28 Luvaas, Jay 46 MacDougall, C . 71 Mackay, C. 71 Mackey, James P., III 46 Malisov, Col. Iu 97 Manny, Erik de 109 Manson, Frank A . 52 Mao, Tse-Tung 59 Margolin, Leo J . 59 Marro, Anthony 71 Marsh, Henry S . 100 Marshall, Charles Burton 7 Martin, David C . 35 Martin, L. John 46 Masterman, J.C. [Sir John C.] 59 Mathews, Kenneth E., Jr. 71 Matsulenko, Maj. Gen. Viktor Antonovich 97 Maurer, David W . 71 Maxim, Daniel 60 May, Mark A. 70 May, Mary 37 McBride, James H . 7 McCaffrey, William J . 85 McClelland, Charles A . 76 McClure, James 7 McConaughy, John B . 109 McDonald, John 46 McGuire, Martin C . 8 McLaurin, R.D. 60 McNamara, Robert S . 20 - 124 - Meeks, John E . 71 Merglen, Albert 46 Mescheryakov, Col. Gen. V. 60, 85 Meselson, Matthew 21 Michie, Allan A . 60 Michiels, Oscar 20 Midgaard, John 85 Mihalka, Michael 60, 98 Milberg, Warren 8, 86 Millar, R . 71 Milton, Paul R . 52 Miltoni, Ioannis 47 Monahan, James 109 Montagu, Ewen [Edward Samuel] 20, 60, 61 Montross, Lynn 61 Moore, Captain John 8 Moose, Paul H . 41 Mordal, Jacques 61 Morgan, J.H. 8 Morgan, Patrick : 36, 84 Morris, Willie 109 Morrison, Samuel Eliot 61 Moss, N. 71 Moulton, J.L. 61 Mowat, R.B. 61 Mowbray, Stephen de 109 Mueller, R.A.H. 45 Mullins, Robert 60 Munson, Gorham B . 47 Mure, David 47 Murphy, Gardner 36 Murphy, Robert 61 Mutz, Reinhard 8 Myklebust, Svein Lorents 85 Nash, J.R. 71 Navrozov, Lev 21 Neild, Robert 8 Nekrich, A[lexandr] M . 61, 85 Nelms, H . 71 Nikulin, Lev Ven'yaminovich 109 Noorani, A.G. 21, 85 Norman, Albert 62 Nowicke, Joan W . 21 Nunn, Sam 86 Nutting, Anthony 62 Oldfield, Barney 62 Ord-Hume, A.W.J.G. 71 Orionova, Galina 109 Orlansky, Jesse 36 Ostrich, John T. Jr. 98 Ostryakov, Sergei Zakharovich 98 - 125 - O'Sullivan, Thomas C . 8 Otte, D. 74 Owen, David 47 Owens, MacKubin T., Jr. 8 Padover, Saul K . 62 Palmer, Dave Richard 62 Palsky, N. 71 Parham, William F . 36 Parsons, Wes 69 Patterson, J . 68 Perlmutter, Amos 81 Perrault, Giles (pseud.) 62 Pfaltzgraff, Robert L., Jr. 8, 86 Pforzheimer, Walter 26 Phelps, John B . 8 Pike, John E. 8 Pilisuk, Marc 71 Pincher, Chapman 36 Place, Richard 21, 62, 86 Pohle, Victoria 86 Poling, James 74 Polyaenus 62 Ponsonby, Arthur 47 Pool, Ithiel de Sola 47 Popov, Dusko 62 Popper, Frank J . 36 Porthault, Pierre 63 Portmann, Adolf 74 Possony, Stefan T . 86 Postman, Leo 39 Poteat, George 86 Potter, William C . 9 Prados, John 36 Price, Alfred 63 Price, Rep. Melvin 110 Prus, R.C. 72 Purves, James Grant 21 Quester, George H . 28, 47, 98 Ra'anan, Uri 8, 86, 110 Rabin, Sheldon 109 Radvanyi, Janos 110 Randi, the Amazing 72 Raskin, David C . 25 Reagan, Ronald 9 Reed, G. 36 Rees, John 110 William Reese 41 Reid, Clifford 47, 98 Reit, Seymour 63 Reitz, James T . 98 Revel, Jean-Francois 110 Reznichenko, Lt. Gen. V. 99 - 126 - Rich, Jonathan 8 Rivet, General 21 Robert-Houdin 72 Robinson, Clarence 9, 21 Rocca, Raymond G . 26 Romerstein, Herbert 110 Rose, Clive 110 Rosenbaum, Ron 36 Rosenfielde, Steven 110 Rosenthal, Murray 67 Rosiere, Carlet de la 47 Rostand, J. 72 Rush, Myron 95, 108 Russett, Bruce 8 Sachar, Howard M . 63 Sackman, H. 37 Safire, William 9 Sager, Peter 110 Salinger, Pierre 63 Samuel, Peter 9 Sands, Mathew 8 Sarbin, Theodore R . 37, 41 Saveleev, B.P. 19 Savkin, Col. V. Ye. 99 Savory, Reginald J.0. 86 Saxe, Maurice, comte de 47 Sayers, Michael 63 Schellenberg, Walter 63 Schelling, Thomas C . 48 Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr. 63 Schorr, David 37 Schramm, Wilbur L . 48 Schrank, J. 37 Schreider, Joseph 63 Schwartz, Charles 8 Seeley, Thomas D . 21 Sejna, Jan 99 Sella, Amnon 63 Selznick, Philip 48 Sergot, Alfons 108 Sevin, Dieter 64 Sharper, C.R.D. 72 Shaw, T.L. 72 Shchedrov, V . 99 Sheatsley, Paul B . 35 Sheen, Henry G . 64 Shein, E.H. 72 Shemnskii 19 Sherman, Seymour 48 Sherwin, Ronald G . 41, 86 Shewmaker, Kenneth Earl 28 Shibutani, Tamotsu 48 - 127 - Shimanskii, Col. A. 99 Shlaim, Avi 87 Shtemenko, Army General S.M. 99 Shuford, Emir H . 30 Shultz, Richard H . 110 Shutov, Cole. Z. 100 Shuttlesworth, Dorothy E . 74 Sidorenko, Col. A.A. 87, 100 Silverberg, R . 72 Simakov, Col. Ye 100 Simon, Hilda 75 Sing, Beer 70 Skaggs, Glenn 87 Sloss, Leon 22 Smith, H. Allen 72 Smoke, Richard 43 Smolyan, G.L. 46 Smyth, Howard M . 56 Snow, C.P. 37 Snyder, Jack L . 22 Solomon, Solomon Joseph 64 Sorensen, Theodore C . 64 Sorokin, Pitirim A . 22 Spaight, J.M. 48 Spayed, Steven 87 Staar, Richard F . 10, 111 Stebbins, Robert A . 48, 72 Stech, Frank J . 22 Stein, Arthur S . 37 Stein, Janet Gross 87 Stepanov, Yu G . 100 Sterling, Claire 22 Stevens, Jennie A . 100 Stone, Jeremy J . 10 Storella, Mark C . 10 Strausz-Hupe, Robert 111 Struve, Gleb 111 Stuart, Douglas T . 28 Stueck, William 101 Sulc, Lawrence B . 111 Sullivan, David S . 3, 10, 11, 92 Summers, Robert E . 48 Sun-tzu 64 Suskin, R. 70 Suvorov. Viktor (pseud.) 37, 101 Symington, Stuart 111 Symms, Steven 12 Szalita, Alberta B . 12 Szulc, Tad 12 Talmon, J.L. 64 Teller, Edward 12 - 128 - Thomas, D.L. 72 Thomas, H. 72 Thompson, Mark Smith 48 Tobias, Fritz 64 Todd, William Robert 72 Tolochkov, M.I. 101 Toth, Robert C . 12 Tow, William T . 28 Trevor-Roper, H.R. 64 Tritten, James J . 12 Trivers, Robert L . 75 Tsybov, Sergey Ivanovich 111 Tucker, Jonathan B . 12 Tuohy, Ferdinand 64, 87 Tversky, Amos 37 Tyson, James L . 111 Ulsamer, Edgar 12, 101, 112 Urgnidi, Donald 1 _ Valenta, Jiri 101 Van Cleave, William R . 13 van den Hove, Didier 71 Vanwelkenhuyzen, Jean 22, 23, 64, 88, 89 Varma, H.L., 72 Vasendin, Maj. Gen. N. 89, 102 Vasilev, Col. P. 102 Velichov, E.P. 13 Vergilius Maro, Publius 64 Vermaat, J.A. Emerson 113 Vigor, Peter H . 64, 89, 102 Villate, R . 65 Wade, Nicholas 40 Wainhouse, David W . 13 Walker, David E . 65 Wallace, A.R. 75 Wallace, B. 75 Wallace, I. 72 Wallop, Malcolm 13 Walsh, W. Bruce 72 Wark, Wesley K . 14, 23 Warmbrunn, Werner 65 Warner, Denis 113 Wasserman, Benno 37, 89 Waters, R.S. 89 Watts, Stephen 65 Wavell, Lord [Sir Archibald] 49, 65 Wechsler, James 45 Weiss, Seymour 14 West, Nigel (pseud.) 37 Westrum, Ron 73 Westrup, J.J. 65, 89 Whaley, Barton Stewart 14, 23, 38, - 129 - 49, 65, 66, 73, 80, 86, 89, 91, 102 Wheatley, Dennis 66 Wheeler, M. 73 Whelan, Joseph G . 113 Whitaker, Urban G . 50 White, John Baker 50 Whiteside, Thomas 113 Whiting, Allen S . 28, 90 Wickler, Wolfgang 75 Wildhorn, Sorrel 15 Wilds, Thomas ........... 15 Willemer, Wilhelm 66 Wingate, Sir Ronald 66 Winks, Robin W . 38 Wishnevsky, Julia 102 Wohlstetter, Albert 23 Wohlstetter, Roberta 23, 24, 66, 73, 90 Wolfe, Bertram David 114 Wraga, Ryszard [aka: Richard] 114 Wrighter, C.P. 73 Yarnold, Kenneth W . 45 Yefimov, V.A. 102 Yost, David S . 114 Young, J.H. 73 Zakharchenko, Major-General of Artillery A.P. 102 Zeman, Z.A.B. 50 Zgorniak, Marian 66 Ziemke, Earl F . 73 Ziethen, General 66, 90 Zimmer, Herbert 40 Zimmerman, William 102 Zolling, Hermann 35 Zumwalt, Elmo R . 15