[iwar] Iran/Israel/Lebanon/Syria - Terrorism (fwd)
From: Fred Cohen
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Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2000 18:47:42 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] Iran/Israel/Lebanon/Syria - Terrorism (fwd)
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In the West Bank, A New Terrorist Dynamic
Summary
There are increasing signs that violence will soon flare in the
West Bank. Increasingly, there is evidence of stepped-up arms
trafficking and coordination between Hezbollah guerrillas in
Lebanon and the Hamas organization in the West Bank. Not only will
this pose a challenge for Israel, but the new terrorist dynamic
will be the first foreign policy test for Syria's brand new
leadership.
Analysis
On June 21, Palestinian police banned a speech that Sheikh Hassan
Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, planned to deliver
by telephone to a rally staged by the Palestinian Islamic
Resistance Movement, Hamas, in the West Bank town of Jenin. The
police appear to have acted out of growing concern over collusion
between the two groups.
No longer able to confront Israel in Lebanon, Hezbollah appears to
be trying to shift the battleground much closer to home, the West
Bank. There are signs of increased weapons trafficking between
Lebanon and the West Bank. And regional media are reporting
increased contact between the leadership of both Hezbollah and
Hamas. There is more at work here, though, than contacts between
two terrorist groups
There are implications for the major players in the region. It
appears that Hezbollah is shifting strategy at least partly in
reaction to its sponsors in Iran. The new dynamic will pose the
problem of renewed violence to Israel. And the new government in
Syria, led by Bashar Assad, will either control Hezbollah or fail
its first major foreign policy test - moving toward peace with
Israel.
________________________________________________________________
Would you like to see full text?
http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/062300.ASP
___________________________________________________________________
The last few years have witnessed increased coordination between
the two terrorist groups. Until the 1990s, the two had shared only
a common enemy, Israel, and sponsor, Iran. But the organizations
had separate missions. Hezbollah was dedicated to forcing an
Israeli pullout from southern Lebanon by running a guerrilla war
against Israeli soldiers and the proxy South Lebanon Army (SLA).
Formed by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip and the West
Bank, Hamas has fought for an Islamic state with attacks on
civilian targets.
The two began to coordinate efforts in the wake of the Oslo peace
accords, signed in 1993. The accords paved the way for joint
counter-terrorist operations by U.S., Israeli and Palestinian
agencies. Regional media reports suggest that Hamas, for one,
turned to Syria and Iran for assistance; Tehran and Damascus in
turn pointed Hamas to groups they already supported or influenced,
Hezbollah and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Al Hadath, a Jordanian
daily, reported in November 1999 that Iran set up a joint
operations center south of Beirut so that all three groups could
run political and military actions against Israel.
Increasing cooperation appears to explain a significant new spike
in arms smuggling into the West Bank. Brig. Gen. Mahmud el-Alul,
the Palestinian governor of Nablus, the West Bank's largest city,
told the Jerusalem Post on June 14 that a "river" of illegal
weapons was flowing into the city. Many of the guns reportedly came
originally from the South Lebanon Army (SLA), which abandoned
numerous arms caches when it collapsed last month. Many of these
caches were recovered by Hezbollah, which now appears to be
funneling them into the West Bank.
This new terrorist dynamic will soon impact the region's
governments. Israel, for one, will likely confront a new wave of
violence on the West Bank and will be hard-pressed to respond
effectively. Much of Jerusalem's attention is now fixed securing
its northern border. And Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will soon
find that calling in retaliatory air strikes on targets in Lebanon
is comparatively easier than rooting arms caches from the West Bank
- or calling on the Palestinian Authority to do so.
_______________________________________________________________
For more on Iran, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Iran/default.htm
For more on Israel, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Israel/default.htm
For more on Lebanon, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Lebanon/default.htm
For more on Syria, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Syria/default.htm
__________________________________________________________________
It appears, too, that Iran is probably behind the shift in strategy
by Hezbollah. Without Israeli forces in Lebanon, Iran has been
deprived of a front on which to pressure the Israelis. Iran has
increased its spending on Hezbollah training in recent months,
according to The Indian Ocean newsletter.
A surge of violence in the West Bank will probably stall a peace
deal between Israel and Syria - Iran's most likely goal. The
government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak could not move peace talks
with the Syrians forward, after all, as long as guns and violence
are flowing through the West Bank.
This, in turn, will pose the first major foreign policy test for
Bashar Assad, apparent successor and son of the late Syrian
president, Hafez Assad. The new leader appears to want a peace deal
with Israel. But to get it he will have to lock in Syrian control
of Lebanon - and Hezbollah. Israel could easily stall the Syrian-
Israeli peace track until Bashar complies.
Bashar Assad will have a difficult time curbing Hezbollah. He is
still solidifying his political base in Damascus, where he is still
vulnerable and does not yet wield the power of his late father. As
a result, Bashar may not feel ready to combat an Iran-backed
challenge to his regime. Additionally, the expected deployment of
United Nations peacekeepers in South Lebanon will not make it
easier for the Syrian army to assert control.
If Bashar wants to maintain the momentum toward a peace deal that
his father began, he is going to have to counter this new terrorist
dynamic, and Iran's backing, as soon as possible.
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