Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256
From: Tony Bartoletti
From: azb@llnl.gov
To: iwar@egroups.com
Mon, 23 Oct 2000 15:26:29 -0700
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From: Tony Bartoletti
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Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 15:26:29 -0700
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Digest Number 256
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(Resent -- Attempting to fix horrific linewrapping! Dumb Computers! ;)
___tony___
>Quote from [http://www.nukefix.org/forecast.html]
>"Specifically, the book introduces the reader to the *Formula k* model
>which seeks to show how long nuclear peace would tend to continue at
>different levels of proliferation and peacefulness.
>
>"This simple mathematical method illustrates levels of peacefulness
>required to sustain peace for designated periods, and purports to predict
>conventional warfare with considerable accuracy. Though some theorists may
>object to the use of mathematical models, Jeanes' method is highly
>original and attractive. His central argument is that for any given
>probability of a nuclear war per year, there is an expected time span
>until it occurs. Thus. the longer we wait without creating a safer world,
>the more likely it is that nuclear warfare will occur. A solid empirical
>foundation and a comparative platform have been built on the extensive
>analysis of numerous conventional wars since 1820."
Without attempting to address the rigor of the mathematical models, I think
that these results are largely (uncommon!) common sense. Think of 20 year
flood tables, and 50 year flood tables, and 100 year flood tables. The
recognition that there are "bigger ones out there" is almost inescapable,
and failure to undertake continual efforts to curtail, divert or withstand
an ever-greater onslaught is to court an
eventual disaster.
This thread began when Ozair Rasheed asked why the lesser-developed
countries (LDCs) become the focus of our fears with regard to
proliferation. The answer that was given is valid (lower expectation on
"command and control") but could be further multiplied when considering yet
smaller "cells" and even individuals. Timothy McVeigh (sp?) we believe,
took down a federal building with a rented van and fertilizer.
Increasingly, protective measures need to focus upon motivations, just as
preventative medicine is likely more effective than
disease-treatment. Yes, there are unreasonable individuals out there, but
when there are organized groups willing to take suicidal measures to seek
your destruction, you cannot avoid the question "what have I done to bring
this on" and plan forever that the playing field favors your team. Serious
measures to reduce tensions must come into play, and a willingness to yield
to a global consensus of "justice" is a necessary component.
(IMHO! :)
___tony___
Tony Bartoletti 925-422-3881
Information Operations, Warfare and Assurance Center
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, CA 94551-9900
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