[iwar] Probability times time produces what?
From: Fred Cohen
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In-Reply-To: <0394212231217a0EMAIL002@email002> from "DrewSchaefer@ftnetwork.com" at Oct 23, 2000 05:00:27 AM
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Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 18:45:19 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@egroups.com
Subject: [iwar] Probability times time produces what?
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Per the message sent by DrewSchaefer@ftnetwork.com:
> "This simple mathematical method illustrates levels of peacefulness
> required to sustain peace for designated periods, and purports to
> predict conventional warfare with considerable accuracy. Though some
> theorists may object to the use of mathematical models, Jeanes' method
> is highly original and attractive. His central argument is that for any
> given probability of a nuclear war per year, there is an expected time
> span until it occurs. Thus. the longer we wait without creating a
> safer world, the more likely it is that nuclear warfare will occur. A
> solid empirical foundation and a comparative platform have been built on
> the extensive analysis of numerous conventional wars since 1820."
Now, I have never really understood probability and statistics that
well, but it seems to me that if we trust the mathematical argument of
someone who says that if there is a fixed probability of an event per
year, the likelihood goes up as the years go by, we may be making an
error in judgements as extreme as the author's error in mathematics.
If there is a 50% chance of the die coming up 4, 5, or 6 for my roll
today, and it does not come up 4, 5, or 6 today, is the probability any
higher tomorrow? I think not.
But - while I am at it, I might mention that over time we may be able to
reduce these probablities through our actions. Indeed, the whole notion
of probability may not apply here, because probability is based on the
"law of large numbers" and on the assumption of certain sorts of random
stochastic processes. If we are talking about small numbers, the law
may not apply, and if we are not dealing with stochastic processes, the
computation basis for results may not apply. Just a thought.
FC
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