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In-Reply-To: <3B499ED2.CDDAE312@mitre.org> from "Dan Ellis" at Jul 09, 2001 08:08:50 AM
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From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net>
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Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2001 06:35:13 -0700 (PDT)
Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [iwar] Duration of Cyber Conflicts
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Per the message sent by Dan Ellis:
...
> think of cyber warfare, I immediately picture a conflict of high
> intensity that lasts hours to days.
The 6-day war only lasted 6 days - and it was called a war.
> Some may argue that this is not cyber
> warfare, but rather an cyber conflict. I don't visualize trench warfare
> as having any analogy in information conflicts. I visualize cyber
> warfare as being more analogous to dropping an atom bomb.
I don't see this myself. In order to convince someone to really give up
in a war - or to sue for peace - you have to have enough of a hold on
them to force the issue. Unless we become far more dependant on IT
systems that we are today it will take longer than a few days.
> It takes two short
> instances to persuade the adversary to surrender.
Indeed, but this is not the whole story of that war. It took years of
war before it got to that.
> Is there an (inverse) relationship between the capacity of weapons to
> do harm (intensity of conflict) and the duration of conflict?
Certainly more harm induces peace more quickly - but perhaps not lasting
peace. The Brits rapidly defeated the Irish in their war hundreds of
years ago. I don't see a lasting peace yet.
> (I am not
> a military guy--just a theory guy. :) If so, how long before cyber
> weapons become sophisticated enough to shorten the length of conflict to
> hours/days?
If we do things right, infinity. We need to make certain in our designs
that this never becomes a possibility. That's one of the many reasons
we undertake information protection as a profession.
FC
--
Fred Cohen at Sandia National Laboratories at tel:925-294-2087 fax:925-294-1225
Fred Cohen & Associates: http://all.net - fc@all.net - tel/fax:925-454-0171
Fred Cohen - Practitioner in Residence - The University of New Haven
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-09-29 21:08:36 PDT