[iwar] Re: Chinese IW-one more thought

From: ellisd@cs.ucsb.edu
Date: 2001-07-31 09:01:06


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Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 16:01:06 -0000
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Subject: [iwar] Re: Chinese IW-one more thought
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--- In iwar@y..., "Leo, Ross" <Ross.Leo@c...> wrote:
> I agree completely with your point.  Their advantage is augmented, 
as you
> suggest, by several factors.  One is the sheer numbers of potential
> I-warriors at their disposal. 

   I disagree with you here.  Numbers has a very linear force 
multiplier.  The sophistication of those tools has a non-linear force 
multiplier.  What that force multiplier is--that is still an open 
question.  I suggest that it is much, much more than linear, although 
I don't think it is exponential.

> Second is their ability to put technology in
> each of these myriad I-warriors' hands to prosecute their plan of 
campaign.

    Digital tools are trivial to replicate thereby making the numbers 
game trivial.  Again, the technological sophistication is the dominant 
ingredient in this equation.  One person with highly sophisticated 
tools will probably be able to outcompete tens to thousands.

> Third, and most important, is the active endorsement of their 
government in
> supporting this effort.  

   Agreed, this doesn't hurt.

> Add to this the seeming infinite patience they can
> exercise as they proceed.
> 
> This scenario compares favourably to the USA/NATO balance of 
airpower to
> that of the former USSR - we chose the technological route, whereas 
the
> Soviets went with numbers.  Our planes may be able to knock out 6 of 
theirs,
> but that doesn't matter if they put up 7 or more to each one of 
ours.
> Ultimately they would still be flying and we would not.  With the 
Chinese
> (and possibly others), this is definitely a numbers game.  In this 
case,
> however, their numbers have the same technology we have.

    This scenario breaks for non-linear force multipliers.  It's like 
comparing WMDs with manpower.  A highly trained unit (10-20 
people) with the most sophisticated tools is probably all you will 
ever need to perform just about any externally executed information 
operation (this doesn't include insider/infiltration operations--which 
have an even greater force multiplier).




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