Return-Path: <sentto-279987-2019-1000825423-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Tue, 18 Sep 2001 08:06:11 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 4460 invoked by uid 510); 18 Sep 2001 15:04:11 -0000 Received: from n30.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.80) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 18 Sep 2001 15:04:11 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-2019-1000825423-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.4.53] by ho.egroups.com with NNFMP; 18 Sep 2001 15:03:43 -0000 X-Sender: fc@big.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-7_3_2_2); 18 Sep 2001 15:03:42 -0000 Received: (qmail 82091 invoked from network); 18 Sep 2001 15:03:42 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.26) by l7.egroups.com with QMQP; 18 Sep 2001 15:03:42 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta1 with SMTP; 18 Sep 2001 15:03:42 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id IAA02996 for iwar@onelist.com; Tue, 18 Sep 2001 08:03:41 -0700 Message-Id: <200109181503.IAA02996@big.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Tue, 18 Sep 2001 08:03:41 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] [fc:Informant.Gap.Could.Hurt.Afghan.Operation] Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Boston Globe September 17, 2001 Informant Gap Could Hurt Afghan Operation By John Donnelly and Anthony Shadid, Globe Staff WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, with virtually no good intelligence in Afghanistan, is in the awkward position of relying entirely on foreign governments in the Muslim world for information on the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, US officials and intelligence specialists say. The intelligence blackout is so complete that American officials worry it could jeopardize or severely limit US military options and actions in the hunt for bin Laden, who has been identified as the prime suspect in last Tuesday's deadly terror attacks. ''There's a great, great lack of US intelligence on Afghanistan now,'' said Julie R. Sirrs, a former Defense Intelligence Agency official who specialized in Afghanistan and the region. ''I think people in the intelligence community were overconfident they could uncover things in time.'' Only a handful of US intelligence officials speak the main languages of Afghanistan, Pashtu and Dari, an Afghan Persian dialect, Sirrs and others said. Two US officials acknowledged yesterday that the Bush administration feels hamstrung by the lack of informants on the ground to provide what's called ''humint,'' or human intelligence. They declined to estimate how many informants the United States has in Afghanistan, but both said the number is tiny. ''I know Americans can more easily accept casualties now, but I don't think they will tolerate it for folly,'' said one US official, speaking on condition of anonymity. ''And right now I don't see US troops going in unless they really know where bin Laden is. And we don't know where he is. You don't want to land blind in a hot zone, with no idea of what you are facing.'' The official said the United States has received good leads from a number of foreign governments, but declined to give specifics. US intelligence agencies will be looking toward Pakistan above all other countries, but the official said several Middle East and European nations also have provided strong information so far. The second US official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Pakistanis know more about bin Laden than anyone, but ''they also leak more. In the past they have given some very sensitive information to'' bin Laden. It is widely believed in intelligence circles that a Pakistani source tipped off bin Laden about the 1998 cruise missile attack by the United States on one of his camps, allowing him to flee. In the 1980s, the CIA and the Pakistani intelligence service collaborated to aid the Afghan guerrilla movement that eventually defeated the occupying Soviet Union Army. During that period, many Pakistani military officers formed close alliances with Afghan factions. ''I am sure there are people in Pakistan, probably including in the government, who do know where bin Laden generally is, which is far, far better than we do,'' Sirrs said yesterday. ''But I'm almost sure they won't tell us now. The Pakistanis will give us something, but probably nothing very useful. If we let the Pakistanis know what we are going to do, there's a likelihood that information will get out.'' A former senior US official who had extensive dealings in the region agreed with that assessment and said much of the US intelligence resources for the region were diverted in recent years to examine the Kashmir conflict and the testing of nuclear bombs by Pakistan and India. That decision to focus elsewhere now leaves the United States sorting through intelligence information from sources other than its own. ''In the near term, the United States will have to tap into the intelligence apparatus of other countries,'' said Andrew F. Krepinevitch, a former Pentagon war planner who now heads the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank. ''We need their military support and access to their bases, but most of all we need a window into what they know. Retired General Wesley K. Clark, NATO's commander of the 1999 Kosovo conflict, agreed yesterday in an interview: ''We have more than enough means to defeat them - if we can find them.'' In the Middle East, countries are cautious about revealing the extent of their cooperation with the United States for fear of igniting a public firestorm. Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, instead has urged a conference under United Nations sponsorship. Pakistan and Lebanon have similarly sought an international veneer, at least publicly, for any global effort. ''The political costs of appearing to line up with the United States, which has declared war on all terrorists but with a heavy overtone on all the Muslim world, is going to be very divisive in every country in the Muslim world,'' said David Long, former deputy director of the State Department's counterterrorism office. But Arab diplomats and US officials say that beneath the public reluctance there has already been far-reaching coordination between the two sides. ''There isn't a day that goes by without one of us asking the other to do something,'' said Nabil Fahmy, Egypt's ambassador to the United States. Kuwait, along with other nations, has taken steps to determine what money is going to bin Laden and to close the loopholes that have made such financing possible. ''Everybody now is going over their books,'' said Salem Abdullah al-Jaber al-Sabah, Kuwait's ambassador to the United States. Globe correspondent Bryan Bender contributed to this report. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Do you need to encrypt all your online transactions? Secure corporate intranets? Authenticate your Web sites? Whatever security your site needs, you'll find the perfect solution here! http://us.click.yahoo.com/wOMkGD/Q56CAA/yigFAA/kgFolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> ------------------ http://all.net/ Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-09-29 21:08:45 PDT