[iwar] [fc:Pentagon.Delays.Hard.Choices]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-02 05:33:15


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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Pentagon.Delays.Hard.Choices]
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Defense News
October 1-7, 2001
Pentagon Delays Hard Choices
Study Makes No Suggestions on Major Programs
By Gail Kaufman, Jason Sherman and Amy Svitak, Washington

Once touted as the bottom-line blueprint for reshaping the U.S. 
military, the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) instead postpones
major decisions on weapon procurement and force structure.  Those will
have to wait for 24 new studies commissioned by Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld and due in March, Pentagon official and documents say. 

To be unveiled Oct.  1 - less than three weeks since the terrorist
attacks on two U.S.  cities - the congressionally mandated report claims
a prominent role for the armed forces in homeland defense and eliminates
the decade-old requirement to fight two nearly simultaneous wars. 

"It's a strategy and policy document," a defense analyst here familiar
with the QDR draft told Defense News Sept.  26.  "It's not a report that
says much about what the program will look like."

Some congressional staff members, frustrated by the report's absence of
detailed recommendations, say Rumsfeld did not take the congressional
mandate seriously. 

"They've just punted all of the major decisions until next year and
essentially ignored a congressional mandate," said one aide.  The
decision to offer fewer details in the QDR was obviously made before the
Sept.  11 terrorist attacks, but since then, the lack of details has
become more justifiable, Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at
Brookings Institution here, said Sept.  28. 

"The Bush administration team came in with grandiose ideas reshaping the
military and refocusing the threat, but is unable to take the tough
decisions.  The lack of details in the QDR is a reflection of that," he
said.  While the QDR does not specify the numbers of ships, tanks or
aircraft the U.S.  Defense Department requires, it does herald
significant changes in the Pentagon's strategy and policy.  The QDR
breaks with the Pentagon's decade-old strategy of preparing to fight two
nearly simultaneous conflicts the size of the 1991 Persian Gulf war. 

The two-war strategy is replaced with a new set of policy goals designed
to give political and military leaders more flexibility in shaping force
structure.  The policy objectives are: assuring allies and friends;
dissuading future military competition; deterring threats to U.S. 
interests; and defeating aggression if deterrence fails. 

The QDR proffers no price tag for the new strategy.  However, the report
notes that the current level of defense spending as a percentage of
gross domestic product is less than 3 percent, far below the 8 percent
average of the past 60 years. 

"There is still a strategy-resource mismatch," said another senior
military official, who argues that the Defense Department has too little
money to fulfill the new QDR's strategy. 

The new strategy advocates a capabilities-based approach to defense. 
Because the United States does not know who its adversaries will be, the
military should focus "more on how an adversary might fight than who the
adversary might be and where a war might occur," says the report's final
draft, which was obtained by Defense News. 

"There are some very good things that have come out of this QDR," said
one senior military official who asked not to be named.  "There is a
different look at strategy and a different force-sizing construct. 
Those two things alone were worth the effort."

After more than a year of work, the QDR was nearly complete when
terrorists flew hijacked civilian airliners into the World Trade Center
and the Pentagon on Sept.  11. 

"We went back and reviewed the QDR specifically to [determine] ... 
whether or not we ...  adequately addressed homeland security," Army
Gen.  Henry Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who retired
on Sept.  30, told Defense News Sept.  24.  "The finding was that we
believed we had.  "I think what 11 September has shown us is that the
impetus needs to be greater than it was," Shelton told Defense News. 
"We need to move faster than the program had called for.  Of course,
that takes more money in order to do that, to be able to get the right
equipment and to get the units we've organized to deal with it, etc."

Rumsfeld assumed the Pentagon's helm in January with a goal of
transforming the U.S.  military into a force better suited to meet
threats of the 21st century.  But the attempt - already bogged down by
political missteps and the forces for the status quo - will be further
delayed by the terrorist attacks. 

The attacks "preclude substantial reductions in forces in the near term,
though it may be feasible to reduce personnel end-strength by
streamlining and reorganizing the force," states the draft report.  The
U.S.  military, for now at least, will retain 10 active-duty Army
divisions, 12 Navy carrier battle groups and 12 active Air Force fighter
wings. 

The Pentagon's new defense review details no changes to major weapon
programs such as the Air Force's F-22 fighter, the Navy's aircraft
carriers and the Army's Crusader artillery program. 

"The primary weakness of the QDR is that it is extremely short both on
programmatic details and on revealing the analytic basis for their
conclusions," said the analyst. 

Pentagon officials say modifications to the weapons recapitalization
program will be spelled out in the 2003 to 2007 program review called
the program objective memorandum, or POM. 

The Pentagon is currently constructing its 2003 spending plan, which
will be submitted to Congress in February.  Following the White House's
post-attack requests for military budget hikes, Pentagon financial
managers have provided new spending targets for 2003.  These targets
will determine what weapon system programs are funded and which are not,
sources say. 

Before the terrorist attacks, Rumsfeld said the Defense Department would
require every nickel Congress could find for its modernization program. 
With the new war on terrorism, President George W.  Bush and Congress
have pledged to make available every resource necessary. 

Gopal Ratnam contributed to this report from Washington. 


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