[iwar] [fc:In.the.fogs.of.war,.the.innocent.starve]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2001-10-22 07:19:45


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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2001 07:19:45 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: [iwar] [fc:In.the.fogs.of.war,.the.innocent.starve]
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In the fogs of war, the innocent starve 

Nick Cohen
Sunday October 21, 2001
The Observer 

The 'war' is usually enclosed in unironic inverted commas because the
real war is not in Afghanistan.  The campaign to contain Islamic
fundamentalism is more about winning arguments than winning battles. 

The overthrow of the Taliban and capture of bin Laden will be worthless
victories if America inspires a new generation of fanatics by allowing
itself to be portrayed as complicit in atrocity.  Tony Blair and Clare
Short recognised the danger and argued fiercely that the choice between
bombing and famine was false.  I've no doubt they were sincere and am
sure they don't want mass starvation.  But when Short said 'we are
trucking in huge amounts of food' and gracelessly accused relief workers
of being 'emotional' she was being idiotic. 

Here, without a tremble of the lip or a tear in the eye, are the
figures.  The World Food Programme says Afghanistan needs 250,000 metric
tonnes of food to get through the winter.  Not every sack of grain needs
to be distributed to stockpiles before the snows come next month.  Parts
of the country will be still be accessible.  None the less the most
conservative aid-workers estimate that 52,000 tonnes must get in by
mid-November, along with stockpiles of 35,000 tonnes each for the
central highlands and north west.  If the food isn't there tens, maybe
hundreds, of thousands are going to die. 

Do the maths and you can see that 122,000 tonnes needs to be moved in
the next month at a rate of about 4,000 tonnes a day. 

The best the World Food Programme has managed since the bombing started
was 900 tonnes in a day.  Last week it shifted 4,000 tonnes in total. 
As an unemotional chap at Christian Aid told me, it's impossible to
recruit enough drivers while the bombs fall. 

A ceasefire will allow the Taliban to regroup, we're told.  Yes, it
will, but so what? America can defeat the Taliban at any time whether
the regime has regrouped or not, unless, that is, supporters of the war
believe that the US doesn't have the will for a long struggle. 

I guess this is the fear that no one could quite utter last week.  If
the momentum was lost, nervousness would set in and the demoralised
military would end the campaign.  Yet we are assured daily that the
American public has a steadfastness and willingness to take casualties. 
If this is true, it should be told that while the bombing may be a
sensible military tactic, as a political strategy it stinks. 

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