Return-Path: <sentto-279987-3365-1003932535-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 [204.181.12.215] by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.7.4) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Wed, 24 Oct 2001 07:10:09 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 7522 invoked by uid 510); 24 Oct 2001 14:08:22 -0000 Received: from n10.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.60) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 24 Oct 2001 14:08:22 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-3365-1003932535-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.4.53] by n10.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 24 Oct 2001 14:08:55 -0000 X-Sender: fc@red.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-8_0_0_1); 24 Oct 2001 14:08:55 -0000 Received: (qmail 5000 invoked from network); 24 Oct 2001 14:08:54 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.142) by l7.egroups.com with QMQP; 24 Oct 2001 14:08:54 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO red.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta3 with SMTP; 24 Oct 2001 14:08:54 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by red.all.net (8.11.2/8.11.2) id f9OE9KB08160 for iwar@onelist.com; Wed, 24 Oct 2001 07:09:20 -0700 Message-Id: <200110241409.f9OE9KB08160@red.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> X-Yahoo-Profile: fcallnet Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2001 07:09:20 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] [fc:Stratfor:.Southwest.Saudi.Arabia:.Hotbed.of.Radical.Islam] Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Southwest Saudi Arabia: Hotbed of Radical Islam 2200 GMT, 011023 Summary Saudi Arabia's interior minister has warned members of the security forces against sympathizing with Islamic radicals. The unusually public comments reveal mounting uncertainty within the royal family over the loyalty of security forces. The U.S.-led war against terrorism has revealed a rift within Saudi society, and dissent from inhabitants of the southwest region may threaten the government in Riyadh. Analysis At an annual security conference in eastern Saudi Arabia, Interior Minister Prince Nayef warned security forces against sympathizing with Islamists opposed to the regime, the official Saudi Press Agency reported Oct. 18. Nayef's remarks -- unusually public for the notoriously secretive government -- suggest that Riyadh doubts the loyalty of security forces. The government has reason for suspicion. Dissatisfaction with the royal family's extravagant spending has simmered just beneath the surface of Saudi society for years. In the southwest several seemingly unrelated incidents suggest growing unhappiness with the government in Riyadh and its relationship with the United States. Although a popular uprising in Saudi Arabia is unlikely, rebellion from within the security forces or organized Islamic militants from the southwest is possible. The government's strict control over all aspects of society has so far kept organized political opposition in check. But growing animosity among citizens toward Riyadh's relationship with Washington -- evidenced by recent protests -- has prompted the royal family to reconsider the basing of U.S. troops on Saudi soil. Splits within the royal family pose a political problem for the United States. But the emergence of radical Islamic opposition could force Riyadh's hand, resulting in the expulsion of U.S. troops and a drawdown in ties with Washington. Western Saudi Arabia, home to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, is known as the Hijaz. Once an independent state, the region is even more staunchly conservative and deeply religious than the urban capital, Riyadh. The area is a bastion of support for exile Osama bin Laden and is home to a large Yemeni immigrant population. It is renowned for religious significance but has not enjoyed the affluence and economic development of the kingdom's eastern half. Farther south, the provinces of Asir, Jizan and Najran are even more isolated, making them a key transit point for drug traffickers and a hotbed for Islamist radicals. These provinces depend upon Hijaz cities such as Mecca, Jeddah and al-Taif and are even more politically distant from Riyadh. During the early 1990s, the southwest became a haven for Afghan Arabs -- Muslim volunteers who had fought the Soviets in Afghanistan. Many Arabs returning from Afghanistan settled around Jizan and parts of Yemen as well. The southwest is known for radical Islamism. Investigators looking into the bombing of the USS Cole in Aden, Yemen, in 2000 have linked suspects to southwestern Saudi Arabia. Moreover, a dozen of the 19 suspected hijackers involved in the Sept. 11 attacks against the United States are thought to have come from the area. For example, brothers Wael and Waleed Alshehri, believed to be aboard the plane that struck the World Trade Center's North Tower, came from Khamis Mushayt, according to U.S. government officials. Khamis Mushayt, about 900 miles southwest of Riyadh, is close to the King Faisal air base, where a number of Westerners work. In August 2000, a Briton narrowly escaped after a gunman opened fire on the main gate of the base, killing a Saudi Royal Air Force guard and wounding two others, the Birmingham Post, a British daily, reported. The southwestern region is also an entry point for arms smugglers, drug traffickers and illegal immigrants. Hashish and khat are routinely trafficked through the region from Yemen and North Africa. For example, area authorities arrested two smugglers with a ton of hashish in May, the Saudi Gazette reported. Police also arrested more than 3,000 illegal immigrants from Yemen and 13 suspected arms and drugs traffickers in Jizan province the same month, according to Al-Riyadh, a Saudi daily. Hints of political unrest in the southwest have already surfaced. Earlier this month, an arms depot outside the city of al-Taif -- just south of Mecca -- was raided. No further information is available, but an unspecified number of weapons were stolen, according to Agence France-Press. Reports of sporadic and quickly dispersed demonstrations in Mecca and other parts of the country -- though quickly denied by Riyadh -- have also seeped into the Western press. Nayef's public warnings are not the only evidence suggesting members of the security forces may pose a threat. Two days after the bombing of the USS Cole in October 2000, two Saudi security officers from the southern region hijacked an airliner and diverted it to Iraq. One of the hijackers was born in Khamis Mushayt and served as a security officer at the King Abd-al-Aziz International Airport in Jeddah. The other, born in Medina, was a border guard in the southwest Najran province, the Saudi Press Agency reported. While no evidence linked the hijackers to the bombing of the USS Cole, the two condemned Riyadh for human rights abuses and political suppression. Alone, these hijackers could be dismissed as little more than lone radicals seeking escape from the strictness of Saudi life. But considered in the light of the events of Sept. 11 and the alleged connection of 12 other men from the region to the suicide hijackings, these men could represent more widespread dissonance and thus the potential for rebellion from within the security services. The geographic and political isolation of Saudi Arabia's southwestern provinces makes it an ideal locale for radical Islamists. The ready availability of weapons and recruits also makes the region difficult for Riyadh to control. The government has taken steps to stave off revolt. For example, within the last year, Riyadh has initiated a number of development projects aimed at boosting the region's economy. The regime has awarded contracts to build a highway linking the southwestern provinces to the rest of the country and Jordan and has opened a number of technical colleges. Also, the minister of agriculture and water recently signed a contract for the construction of a dam in Asir province, the Saudi Gazette reported. The economic development, however, may be too little too late. The government has taken measures, such as setting up roadblocks and arresting known Muslim extremists, to stifle dissent. But Riyadh's growing concerns about unrest suggest that discontented members of the military, national guard and police may be merging with radicals and opposition groups. Such an alliance could portend serious trouble for the government in Riyadh. An isolated military revolt may not be enough to oust the royal family, but it could have dire consequences for Washington's continued military presence in the kingdom. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Get your FREE VeriSign guide to security solutions for your web site: encrypting transactions, securing intranets, and more! http://us.click.yahoo.com/UnN2wB/m5_CAA/yigFAA/kgFolB/TM ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> ------------------ http://all.net/ Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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