[iwar] [fc:Could.Cyber-Terrorism.Promote.Open-Source.Software?]

From: Fred Cohen (fc@all.net)
Date: 2002-07-13 22:23:50


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Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2002 22:23:50 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [iwar] [fc:Could.Cyber-Terrorism.Promote.Open-Source.Software?]
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July 8, 2002
Could Cyber-Terrorism Promote Open-Source Software?
<a href="http://www.cutter.com/press/020708.html">http://www.cutter.com/press/020708.html>
Cutter Consortium

Cutter Consortium Fellow Ed Yourdon recently stated that a paradigm
shift could possibly occur overnight if we are subjected to a
dramatically successful cyber-terrorism attack. This new paradigm might
be a government-imposed mandate to use open-source software.

In his latest book Byte Wars, Yourdon suggests that since September 11
we live in a world of unpredictable, and sometime malevolent, disruptive
change. In the book he argues that this new state of affairs, which we
must assume will persist for the next several years, is likely to cause
a number of paradigm shifts in the IT industry, as well as various other
parts of society. This potentially-mandated use of open source is one
such change.

Says Yourdon, "Even without another dramatic incident, September 11 set
into motion a series of analyses and assessments that could cause a
dramatic shift toward open-source software. Up until now, we've heard
discussions and debates about the marketplace acceptance of open-source
systems like Linux, and the open-source advocates might have predicted
that within another 5 or 10 or 20 years, their paradigm for software
development would gradually dominate the more familiar and traditional
paradigm of proprietary software.

"But, if a terrorist group uses a cyber-attack to bring down the
nation's telecommunications network, or banking network, or air-traffic
control system, or electric power grid, or any other part of the
'critical infrastructure' for even a day or two, the situation could
change dramatically -- a government mandate to use open-source could not
only accelerate an otherwise slow and steady movement, it could enforce
it as a matter of law."

In Yourdon's opinion, the two most important issues with adopting
open-source have to do with security and the ability to make changes to
software quickly. "First," he says, "open-source, quite simply, is
subject to the scrutiny of thousands upon thousands of programmers all
over the world. Second, there is the issue of rapid change: if any
large-scale user of a software package discovers a bug or a security
flaw, how quickly can it be changed? When dealing with Microsoft, IBM,
Oracle, or any other traditional vendor, the answer is: only when they
acknowledge the bug or flaw, and only when it fits into their schedule
and priorities. When faced with a serious security vulnerability, one
would assume that it's in the vendor's best interest to fix it quickly;
but when it comes to more traditional bugs and limitations of the
software, the vendor's priorities and self-interest may not be the same
as the user's. With open-source software, any user who wants to, or
needs to, make a change can do so whenever he or she wants -- at least
in theory, if not in practice."

Yourdon recommends that corporate IT planners develop a contingency plan
for such a scenario. "The need to do so is fairly obvious: if DoD or
other federal, state, and local government agencies are among your
largest customers, but a government-wide mandate would quickly spread to
aerospace/defense contractors, other Fortune 500 companies, and
ultimately to the entire IT industry. Companies should take some
relatively painless steps to ensure they are not utterly dependent on
proprietary software to get their work done." Yourdon suggests companies
begin looking at open-source alternatives to the proprietary packages
they depend on today, such as the Mozilla Web browser and Sun's Star
Office.

Yourdon concludes, "If someone had told me a year ago that the Taliban
would hasten the move to open-source computing, I would have dismissed
it as a crazy idea. But these are crazy times, and we have to keep
reminding ourselves to reexamine and reassess the assumptions and
paradigms we depended on in the past."


Could Cyber-Terrorism Promote Open-Source Software?

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