[iwar] Fight terrorism with intelligence, not might

from the December 26, 2003 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1226/p13s01-coop.html
Fight terrorism with intelligence, not might
By Sara Daly

ARLINGTON, VA. - In this season of code-orange alert, good intelligence
rather than military might is the best way to protect our homeland. Information
gathering is the most powerful weapon in the struggle to dismantle terrorist
networks and prevent attacks.

The United States and other nations are hunting down small and often
unconnected groups and individuals who hide their identities and surface only briefly
to carry out terrorist attacks.

Much emphasis in the fight against terrorism has been placed on military
capabilities. We have come to expect that planes, tanks, helicopters, and heavily
armed soldiers will be used to protect America and defeat our enemies.

But calling out the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marines in full battle gear to
combat terrorism on a day-to-day basis is rarely a successful strategy at
home or abroad. There's no question America has the military might to crush an
enemy on the battlefield - but in fighting terrorism, the primary challenge is
finding the enemy on a battlefield that has no boundaries.

If the job is done right, successful prevention of terrorism depends on
gathering accurate information and stopping something from happening - often
without public awareness. It is only the failure to prevent attacks that is felt,
and along with it a profound sense that we are ultimately powerless to protect
ourselves.

The terrorists are, by definition, in the business of terrorizing us, and
want to make us feel helpless and hopeless in the face of their attacks. They
want us to believe attacks come randomly and without warning, so that we don't
even try to predict the unpredictable. They hope that by making us adopt
defeatism as a philosophy, they can defeat us.

In fact, there is plenty we have done and can do to combat terrorism. Recent
terrorist events perpetrated by Al Qaeda and Islamic extremist groups
sympathetic to Al Qaeda have similar patterns that can be identified by intelligence
agencies working hand in glove with local police and security services in the
US and around the world.

One of these recent patterns is for Al Qaeda to devolve more authority to
local Islamic extremist groups in places like Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey
to carry out attacks against US and allied targets.

In some cases, the individuals involved in the attacks are unknown to local
police - Al Qaeda often seeks out anonymous individuals. But in other cases,
the individuals responsible for attacks are known to the police in the areas
where they operate and have a history of terrorist activity. Al Qaeda relies on
these more experienced operatives to pull off a successful attack.

This is where the local police can play the most crucial role in preventing
future attacks. In most cases, the police are already aware of the activities
of local extremist groups with established records of advocating and carrying
out violent acts, and often know the players involved because of their past
participation in terrorist activity.

Monitoring the activities of local extremists in individual countries - such
as travel in and out of the country and involvement in criminal enterprises -
can be carried out through physical surveillance and other methods of
monitoring permissible under legal boundaries. This can give local police the upper
hand.

By doing this, law-enforcement agents will not be able to prevent every
terrorist attack, but they will make terrorists' job a lot harder by dismantling
networks and fostering a hostile operating environment. We know from past
experience that faced with this situation, terrorists will either cease conducting
attacks in that location and restrategize, or move their operations completely.
Solid police work is crucial not only in following up on leads after an
attack has occurred, but in preventing future attacks. Efforts by police to
identify operational patterns and the individuals in communities involved in
terrorist activity will go a long way toward undermining terrorists' ability to
instill a sense of randomness and fear.

The "war" on terrorism is really more comparable to the long and continuing
battle against crime waged by police departments around the world. The leading
role in this antiterrorism battle isn't played by GI Joe, but by Dick Tracy.

b" Sara Daly is a former CIA counter-terrorism analyst now working as a
terrorism expert at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization.

-- This communication is confidential to the parties it is intended to serve --
Fred Cohen - http://all.net/ - fc@all.net - fc@unhca.com - tel/fax: 925-454-0171
Fred Cohen & Associates - University of New Haven - Security Posture

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Received on Thu Dec 25 21:53:12 2003