Return-Path: <sentto-279987-2922-1003013658-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com> Delivered-To: fc@all.net Received: from 204.181.12.215 by localhost with POP3 (fetchmail-5.1.0) for fc@localhost (single-drop); Sat, 13 Oct 2001 15:55:07 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 14946 invoked by uid 510); 13 Oct 2001 22:54:05 -0000 Received: from n6.groups.yahoo.com (216.115.96.56) by 204.181.12.215 with SMTP; 13 Oct 2001 22:54:05 -0000 X-eGroups-Return: sentto-279987-2922-1003013658-fc=all.net@returns.onelist.com Received: from [10.1.1.220] by n6.groups.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 13 Oct 2001 22:54:19 -0000 X-Sender: fc@big.all.net X-Apparently-To: iwar@onelist.com Received: (EGP: mail-7_4_1); 13 Oct 2001 22:54:18 -0000 Received: (qmail 9874 invoked from network); 13 Oct 2001 22:54:18 -0000 Received: from unknown (10.1.10.27) by 10.1.1.220 with QMQP; 13 Oct 2001 22:54:18 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO big.all.net) (65.0.156.78) by mta2 with SMTP; 13 Oct 2001 22:54:17 -0000 Received: (from fc@localhost) by big.all.net (8.9.3/8.7.3) id PAA08422 for iwar@onelist.com; Sat, 13 Oct 2001 15:54:17 -0700 Message-Id: <200110132254.PAA08422@big.all.net> To: iwar@onelist.com (Information Warfare Mailing List) Organization: I'm not allowed to say X-Mailer: don't even ask X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL1] From: Fred Cohen <fc@all.net> Mailing-List: list iwar@yahoogroups.com; contact iwar-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list iwar@yahoogroups.com Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:iwar-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com> Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2001 15:54:17 -0700 (PDT) Reply-To: iwar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [iwar] Summary of recent events and assessment of current path if not altered Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit [FC - This represents only an assessment based on estimates and is in no way intended to be authoritative or represented as more than one person's current view.] The information war is heating up - throughout the 'Arab' world there are protests arising against US strikes on Afghanistan. In the meanwhile. the predisposition of middle eastern nations to blame everything on Israel and characterize all efforts as having to do with Israel's presence seems to be heating up. Limited violence is in use, however tourism is way down in the whole region, some pockets of violence remain, and per the US President's request, groups and countries are aligning on one side or the other - thus causing massive internal discord in many nation states in the region. It appears that in the coming weeks or months, issues may be pressed to the point where, in taking up sides, some countries will change leadership, others will have massive internal problems, and the result will be a far more dangerous situation and a situation in which more states are run by religious extremists - all in some sense aided by the US taking a stand against actors across a whole region. The official US association of Hazbalah with the Kobai towers bombing seems to signal to Iran (a major sponsor) and to major parts of the Palestinian alliance that the US will ultimately be at war with them as well. The picture of a series of one-after-the-other attacks on regional nations will be the likely sequence by the US brings the spectre of further overthrows, a regional shift against the US policies, and further shifting of alliances. The presence of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons owned by state and non-state actors in the region, combined with the large-scale presence of supporters, agents, and sympathizers in throughout the 'Western' world in combination with the lack of many non-Arabs in the region in conflict means that the Western alliance will be likely end up being subjected to serious attacks by Weapons of Mass Destruction without the ability to attribute this use rapidly to its sources or the ability to return a massive strike on the actors responsible without massive collateral damage. Meanwhile, the internal situation in the US is one of substantial fear already and increased fear is likely to result over time with the incessant 'highest' alerts and the lack of press access to and effective communication by the US government. It appears at this time that unless this highly forceful rhetoric and politics of combativeness is somehow reduced, the net effect will be harsher positions, more defined and differentiated differences, and an intensification of conflict with potentially devastating and calamitous effects on all parties. ------------------ http://all.net/ Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.2 : 2001-12-31 20:59:55 PST