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Subject: [iwar] [fc:Pakistan.Assessment.2001]
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Pakistan Assessment 2001
Pakistan continues to be caught in the trap of extremist Islamist
militancy and terror that it constructed as part of its Afghan and
Kashmir policy. Official support - both explicit and covert - to
Islamic terrorist groupings continues, even while the state struggles to
cope with the internal fall-out of this burgeoning terrorist community.
This remains the major element in Pakistan's internal security scenario
in year 2001, as it has been these past years.
The year 2000 in Pakistan was marked by the near absence of large scale
sectarian or ethnic violence, a domineering feature of the Nineteen
Nineties. Instead, a series of explosions in several urban
concentrations, most of which were promptly blamed on India, caused
significant concern. Marking a new trend for Pakistan, the first ever
reported suicide bomber attack occurred in a news paper office at
Karachi on November 6, 2000, killing three persons. The effectiveness
of the military regime's March 16 order to halt the open display of
private arms is yet to be officially assessed though this is expected to
reduce the menace of gun-battles in Pakistan's two major urban centres,
Karachi and Lahore.
The year 2000 had opened on a note of acrimony with India's Foreign
Minister Jaswant Singh accusing Pakistan, on January 1, of sheltering
the hijackers of the Indian Airlines Flight 814. Pakistan's Interior
Minister Lt-Gen. Moinuddin Haider refuted these allegations. However,
of the three terrorists released from Indian jails in exchange for the
hostages aboard IA 814, the presence of Masood Azhar in Pakistan is well
established. The whereabouts of the two other freed terrorists and the
hijackers, who were reported to have travelled together from Kandahar
and into Pakistan, are not known.
NOTE: Figures for 2000 pertain to terrorist attacks using explosives
only. Figures for casualties and incidents of other terrorist activity
such as firings, killings of abducted victims, et. al. are not
available.
Sectarian Violence in Pakistan (1989-2000)
Year Incidents Killed Injured
1989 67 18 102
1990 274 32 328
1991 180 47 263
1992 135 58 261
1993 90 39 247
1994 162 73 326
1995 88 59 189
1996 80 86 168
1997 103 193 219
1998 188 157 231
1999 103 86 189
2000* 109 149 N/A
Total 1579 997 2523
Source: Figures are compiled from news reports and are provisional
Sectarian Violence in Year 2001
Month Incidents Killed Injured
January 8 50 18
February 18 21 11
March 17 53 44
April 13 4 65
May 17 18 52
June 14 18 31
July 10 15 26
August 16 23 84
Total 113 202 331
Source: Figures are compiled from news reports and are provisional
Within Pakistan, a series of bomb blasts rocked major urban centres
beginning with a blast on January 5, 2000 in Hyderabad which left 18
persons injured and closely followed with a blast in Karachi on January
17, which killed eight and injured 22 others. SATP estimates indicate
that there were at least 56 explosions during the year in which 96
people were killed and 443 others injured. The series of explosions
climaxed with four bomb blasts occurring on a single day, December 25,
at Lahore, Faislabad, Khairan and Hyderabad, leaving 41 persons
critically injured. Among the bomb blast casualties during the year, 10
were killed and 111 injured in Lahore. 19 and 80 respectively in
Islamabad. In Sindh province 16 people were killed and 65 injured at
Hyderabad, while 15 were killed and 76 injured in Karachi. In Quetta,
Baluchistan, bomb explosions killed 11 and left 34 injured. Other
cities in Pakistan, which were affected included Peshawar, Gujaranwala,
Chaman, Bafa, Khairan, Faislabad and Torkhan. The city of Quetta also
witnessed a series of rocket attacks on December 3 and 5, in which one
person was killed and five including two army personnel injured.
Besides these attacks caused extensive damage to buildings and houses.
The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) in its annual assessment
for 2000 estimated that 109 incidents of bomb blasts killed 149 people
in the country. A Pakistani news report citing an unnamed study
estimated that 37 explosions occurred in 13 cities from January 1 to
November 6, killing 81 and injuring 313 persons. Another news report
comparing the last 12 months of the Nawaz Sharief regime and the first
12 months of the military regime under Gen. Pervez Musharraf, said that
there were 14 bomb attacks in the first phase as compared to 27 while
the casualties for the two phases were 36 and 59 killed respectively.
Pakistani reports have also noted that, though the absolute number of
bomb attacks has risen dramatically, the casualty rates have been low.
Post-blast investigations revealed that the quantity of explosives used
in each attack has been quite low. The conclusion drawn is that the
perpetrators of these attacks are attempting to draw the attention of
the administration to their potential capacity to cause damage, rather
than causing immediate and actual damage.
Another disturbing feature in the Year 2000 were two attacks on the
Press in Karachi. The office of Business Recorder was attacked by a mob
and burnt down on May 18. In the second attack, a suicide bomber
exploded herself inside the office of the Nawai Waqt on November 6,
killing three persons including herself. This is the first-ever
reported instance of a suicide terrorist attack in Pakistan.
Some isolated instances of sectarian strife were witnessed in 2000. In
one of the worst incidents of the year, three hand grenades were lobbed
at a gathering within a Shia mosque at Malohwali in Attock district on
April 12. 13 persons were killed and 30 others injured in this attack.
The grenades were reportedly thrown from an adjacent Sunni mosque. Five
of those killed were from the family of Syed Sajid Naqvi, chief of a
prominent Shia organisation, Tehrik-i-Jafria Pakistan (TJP). The
attackers were suspected to be members of the rival Sunni organisation
Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) though the SSP promptly denied any involvement in
the attack. The HRCP annual assessment said that while 69 deaths were
attributed to sectarian violence, the actual figure could be higher.
Unlike previous years, where attacks on mass gatherings in rival mosques
were more prevalent, the year 2000 saw several assassinations of
prominent leaders from rival sectarian groups. A TJP leader Syed
Farrukh Barjees was killed on April 26 at Khanewal, near Multan. A
prominent Shia lawyer and member of the Voice of Shia Federation was
killed in Karachi on May 15, while a renowned Sunni religious scholar,
Maulana Mohammad Yousuf Ludhianvi was killed in Karachi on May 18. He
was reportedly described as a cleric and writer who promoted the cause
of sectarian unity but was strident in his criticism of the Ahmadiya
sect. Anwar Ali Akhunzada, the central general secretary of TJP in
Peshawar was killed on November 23, an assassination for which a Sunni
terrorist outfit, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) reportedly claimed
responsibility. On the other hand, an SSP controlled mosque was
attacked by suspected Shia terrorists of the Sipah-e-Mohammed Pakistan
(SMP) on on March 12, 2001. Nine worshippers were killed and 12 others
injured
Spreading from the traditional Shia-Sunni context, year 2000 saw the
sectarian conflict engulfing the Ahmadiya sect, a group officially
branded as a non-Muslim community. Several attacks and killings of
Ahmadiyas, were reported including an attack on a group that was coming
out of a mosque at Sargodha in Pakistani Punjab on November 10. Five
Ahmadiyas were killed in this attack.
There were several attacks on the police force too. In quick
succession, there were bomb explosions outside two police stations in
Karachi on May 3 and 5. In a major development, a police officer was
killed in Lahore on December 18. The LeJ claimed responsibility for the
assassination. The slain officer, Tariq Kamboh, was promoted as Deputy
Superintendent of Police in recognition of his work against sectarian
outfits. He was involved in the arrest of terrorists involved in the
1998 Mominpura massacre and the 1999 bomb blast in Raiwind, reportedly
aimed at killing former Premier Nawaz Sharif.
The linkages between terrorist elements active in India's J&K or
Afghanistan, and those within Pakistan, are not surprising since they
share the same madrassas, training camps, bureaucracies and operatives.
The 'boys' who are trained to fight in Kashmir are also indoctrinated to
consider Shias to be non-believers and heretics. One academic
assessment (Jessica Stern, "Pakistan's Jihad Culture", Foreign Affairs,
November-December 2000) summarizes the essence of Pakistan's dilemma.
Pakistan now faces a typical "principal-agent" problem: the interests of
state (principal) and those of the militant groups (the agent) are not
fully aligned. . the militant groups that Pakistan supports and Sunni
sectarian killers(-) that Pakistan claims it wants to wipe out(-)
overlap significantly. By facilitating the actions of irregulars in
Kashmir, the Pakistani government is inadvertently promoting
sectarianism, supporting international terrorists, weakening the
prospects for peace in Kashmir, damaging Pakistan's international image,
spreading a narrow and violent version of Islam throughout the region,
and increasing tensions with India - all against the interests of
Pakistan as a whole.
The military regime, facing international criticism over its status as a
host to numerous Islamic extremist elements, has, from time to time,
sought to take steps to deflect growing internal and international
criticism of the activities of fundamentalist elements within Pakistan.
But inner contradictions within the regime are bound to hamper these
efforts. Remarks by Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf in the New
York Times in June justified jihad and claimed that it was 'a tolerant
concept'. In contrast, speaking at a seminar in Karachi on October 6
about the possible future role of Jihadi outfits in the context of
Pakistan's internal security, Pakistan's Interior Minister Moinuddin
Haider is reported to have asked the participants of the seminar to just
imagine what could happen to Pakistan when terrorists of the LeT would
start trekking back home from Indian-controlled Kashmir once the their
objectives there had been achieved.
Earlier, on March 27, Moinuddin Haider said that the government was in
touch with extremist religious groups and hoped to bring them to the
negotiating table. He reiterated this the claim at a Press Conference
in Islamabad on December 27, stating that the government would hold a
dialogue with various sectarian group leaders on January 13, 2001. The
meeting, as reported by a Pakistani newspaper produced an opposite
reaction with most socio-religious outfits, ridiculing, criticising and
challenging the government on measures such as display of arms in public
meetings, state control on religious education and Islamisation of the
polity.
Earlier, on March 16, 2000, while announcing a ban on public display of
weapons, the Minister had added that all militant Islamic groups were
ordered to "behave and not make irresponsible and baseless statements"
and refrain from organising rallies. On July 18, a meeting of top
security officials headed by the Interior Minister decided that, to
bolster counter-terrorism efforts, anti-terrorism cells would be
established in all the provincial capitals. While revealing this, the
minister hoped that these cells would ensure better co-ordination
between provinces and the federal authorities for an effective check on
sectarianism.
These repeated government threats to rein in sectarian outfits have only
elicited counter threats by extremist organisations and open defiance of
government directives. On a single day, October 22, three extremist
outfits, LeJ, SSP and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) held widely
publicised conventions. The LeJ convention in Karachi was partially
disrupted due to a bomb explosion in which three persons were killed.
Members of the SSP, who were returning after the convention in the same
city, were attacked and two activists were killed while 12 others
sustained injuries. However, the HuM convention at Peshawar passes off
peacefully.
At the SSP convention, the head of the organisation presented a
programme for enforcement of its version of Islam in twenty cities of
Pakistan. At the HuM convention, Maulana Samiul Haq, a Pakistani
parliamentarian, exhorted students of a madrassa to prepare for the
coming Islamic revolution. Posing a direct challenge to the government,
a sectarian outfit, Tanzeem-ul-Ikhwan, on December 27, threatened to
organise a march in Islamabad to press for the enforcement of Islamic
Sharia law.
Meanwhile, the power struggle which began in October 1999 between the
elected executive headed by erstwhile Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief and
the military leadership headed by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, finally came
to a close on December 10, 2000, with the erstwhile Prime Minister going
into exile in Saudi Arabia. Earlier, on April 6, 2000, Nawaz Sharief
was convicted to life imprisonment by a Karachi anti-terrorism court on
charges of hijacking and other offences. He was granted a Presidential
pardon before being exiled.
This development gave Pakistan's religious parties another occasion to
criticise the military regime. After a free run where most religious
parties were tacitly involved in the country's raging sectarian violence
in 1998 and 1999, there had been a lull in the activities of these
organisations subsequent to the military coup of October 12, 1999. As
had been assessed earlier on SATP, religious extremist parties and
dedicated terrorist outfits had ceased most of their violence after the
October coup, but this appeared to be a temporary phase, in essence a
'wait and watch policy'. The series of bomb blasts in 2000 can be
interpreted as a warning to the military regime that these groups remain
as serious about pursuing their narrow divisive religious agendas.
Growing internecine clashes between various terrorist outfits based in
Pakistan and operating in J&K emerged as another problem area for
the military regime in Pakistan. These clashes came to the fore
immediately after the unilateral cease-fire by the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
(HM) in Kashmir. The cease-fire antagonised the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) a
'socio-religious organisation' which also acts as the Pakistani patron
of the Hizb, and that feared a loss of control over the Kashmiri
movement. In an attempt to retain control over the outfit, the JeI
attempted to replace Masood Sarfaraz, the chief of the Hizb's most
active unit, the Pir Panjal Regiment, with its nominee, Shamsher Khan in
October. The move triggered internecine clashes which spread to several
training camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), including those at
Nikial, Samani and Kotli.
There were reports that the warring factions were attempting to gain
support from other terrorist outfits. This raised the possibility of
escalation in these turf wars, with outfits such as Al-Badr,
Tariq-e-Jihad and LeT, who significantly have a large number of foreign
mercenaries, joining the fray. The army regime is reported to have
deployed elite Special Services Group (SSG) forces to prevent any spread
of the conflict between the jihadi groups. The situation, however,
remains volatile and carries seeds of further destabilisation for the
Pakistani establishment. Gen. Musharraf has reportedly asked various
army units directly dealing with these terrorist outfits, to deal with
internecine clashes firmly.
Urban Sindh (particularly Karachi) continued to be the battleground for
politico-sectarian and ethnic violence. The Muttahida Quami
Movement-Altaf (MQM-A), which was engaged in a violent conflict with
State forces during the early and mid Nineteen Nineties continues to be
locked in a violent battle with its splinter faction, Mohajir Quami
Movement-Haquiqi (MQM-Haquiqi) for control of urban areas. Several
killings on either side were reported in the Year 2000. The MQM (A)
leadership continued to accuse the establishment of using repressive
tactics to demoralise the Mohajir community and branding them as
terrorist and criminals.
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